Heres my hair brain theory for the day. China's pressuring Taiwan.


https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/27/asia/tsai-ingwen-taiwan-china-interview-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_source=twCNN&utm_medium=social&utm_term=link&utm_content=2021-10-28T01%3A54%3A02
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/27/asia/tsai-ingwen-taiwan-china-interview-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_source=twCNN&utm_medium=social&utm_term=link&utm_content=2021-10-28T01%3A54%3A02

WWIII would require other countries to try and stop China from taking over Taiwan. I don't think any will, anymore. 
-Blast

I hope not. But arent other allies in the area concerned?

I agree with Blast.

Concern and armed intervention are 2 very different things. Japan, Philippines, Thailand and South Korea would likely be furious but none have the ability to intervene in an effective manner.

Russia may also be concerned since they sell Taiwan most of its oil/fuel imports. That and who wants that feces on their (Pacific) doorstep. But again petroleum is fungible and as long as they keep it out of Russian waters why go to war over it.

Taiwan's best bet is to make sure that the PRC assumes any invasion attempt will be long and bloody.

The one wild card here in Taiwan's favor is that Taiwan manufactures 63% of the world semi-conductors.

An invasion & siege by the PRC would mean the world semi-conductor output would be reduced by 63%. You think we have a shortage now just wait until the PRC starts its invasion.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/2-charts-show-how-much-the-world-depends-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors.html 

Wars have been fought over a lot less than that.

Quote from: Raptor on October 28, 2021, 04:14:16 PM
I agree with Blast.

Concern and armed intervention are 2 very different things. Japan, Philippines, Thailand and South Korea would likely be furious but none have the ability to intervene in an effective manner.

Russia may also be concerned since they sell Taiwan most of its oil/fuel imports. That and who wants that feces on their (Pacific) doorstep. But again petroleum is fungible and as long as they keep it out of Russian waters why go to war over it.

Taiwan's best bet is to make sure that the PRC assumes any invasion attempt will be long and bloody.

As well as Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam and India. But I think it would take the US to coordinate and lead an effective response. And I agree with Blast and Raptor. The US doesn't have the cultural unity to make a stand for much of anything anymore.

I don't think it will be much longer before Taiwan doesn't even have a chance to pull off any sort of siege. Imagine the PRC simply mass producing small drones guided by even rudimentary AI combined with a culture that is not concerned with collateral damage. They're already technologically on the verge of being able to employ a low cost short range style of artillery support on a massive scale that nobody has any real experience fighting. Every time a sniper takes a shot, a dozen drones swarm them.

Quote from: RoneKiln on October 28, 2021, 11:18:02 PM

Quote from: Raptor on October 28, 2021, 04:14:16 PM
I agree with Blast.

Concern and armed intervention are 2 very different things. Japan, Philippines, Thailand and South Korea would likely be furious but none have the ability to intervene in an effective manner.

Russia may also be concerned since they sell Taiwan most of its oil/fuel imports. That and who wants that feces on their (Pacific) doorstep. But again petroleum is fungible and as long as they keep it out of Russian waters why go to war over it.

Taiwan's best bet is to make sure that the PRC assumes any invasion attempt will be long and bloody.

As well as Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam and India. But I think it would take the US to coordinate and lead an effective response. And I agree with Blast and Raptor. The US doesn't have the cultural unity to make a stand for much of anything anymore.

I don't think it will be much longer before Taiwan doesn't even have a chance to pull off any sort of siege. Imagine the PRC simply mass producing small drones guided by even rudimentary AI combined with a culture that is not concerned with collateral damage. They're already technologically on the verge of being able to employ a low cost short range style of artillery support on a massive scale that nobody has any real experience fighting. Every time a sniper takes a shot, a dozen drones swarm them.

Honestly I wonder what (besides ego/national pride) drives the PRC to go after Taiwan. The only resources there are the chip manufacturing facilities and related tech. The PRC already likely has all of that.

This article clearly written by a PRC supporter shows the opinion of the PRC over what the PRC could get with Taiwan...but not if they invade and destroy the country. Same reason Switzerland has staved off invasions. What you are left with is not worth the cost because the value is destroyed by an invasion.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1237658.shtml


IMO the PRC can play the long game very well. They want Taiwan for reasons that preclude a physical attack or at least make that undesirable. However, that does not mean they would not take over if permitted to do so.