Heads up! Wheat & flour

Survival Lilly!     She's awesome; I used to watch her all the time.  Her solar, gardening, rainwater and food stores set ups in this video very impressive.  That woman is the real deal.

Anyone know how long wheat flour keeps?  Remember at the very beginning of the pandemic store shelves were stripped bare of flour and yeast?  I remember finding a store that had some so I bought a couple bags for myself and two more for a family I look out for.  I also gave them some fairly new yeast I had on hand.    

That was over two years ago.  The family immediately embarked on a regular COVID bakefest, but I didn't do anything with my flour and yeast.  The yeast, already at least a year old at the time, probably isn't viable anymore.  But the flour should still be good, right?  Stored in my kitchen cabinet.  No special packaging, just the paper bag it came in.  Anyone have thoughts?

To my mind, the one to watch is still fuel, specifically diesel. That's the nose, most other things are tail.

We backhandedly watch diesel at work because we operate a fleet of 375+ fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and all the turbine engines run on Jet A.

I am not the fuel guy (I'm the maintenance analysis guy), but what I am being told is that manufacturing bandwidth is arranged in such a way that gasoline is sort of its own stream, and the second stream is diesel and Jet A (which are related). Accordingly, increases in diesel production eat into Jet A production, and vice versa. You can get Jet A working a diesel engine (kerosene, Jet A, and diesel #1 are all similar... diesel #2 kinda different)... so this seems intuitive.

What we see is that Jet A prices skyrocketed in March and are still climbing. The explainer so far is that on top of the Everything Shortage, diesel capacity is being prioritized so we get drenched twice when we fill the birds up. Price at the fuel terminals (i.e. raw commodity cost) is up something like 120% YoY right now, even though WTI isn't tracking that way. We eat increases a second time when paying for distribution to our bowsers (which, shocker, runs on diesel), and then a third time plus extra if we do the stupid thing and refuel at an FBO (which is relying on diesel-based distribution too... and now we gotta pay for their overhead).

And diesel PPG is going up. Not down.

Short version, distro is getting hammered. I'm not nervous yet, but thinking about the things that rely on diesel... you get unpleasant answers. Colorado's grid is like 40% coal-fired. Coal delivery runs on diesel. Gasoline delivery
to your favorite dead dinosaur pumps runs on diesel. Grocery store supply chains run on diesel. Fertilizer trucking runs on diesel.

It touches everything. I think if you don't watch anything else, that's the commodity to price-track.

Quote from: Lodewijk on June 10, 2022, 08:50:10 AMAnd diesel PPG is going up. Not down.

Short version, distro is getting hammered. I'm not nervous yet, but thinking about the things that rely on diesel... you get unpleasant answers. Colorado's grid is like 40% coal-fired. Coal delivery runs on diesel. Gasoline delivery
to your favorite dead dinosaur pumps runs on diesel. Grocery store supply chains run on diesel. Fertilizer trucking runs on diesel.

It touches everything. I think if you don't watch anything else, that's the commodity to price-track.

Indeed diesel touches everything since almost 100% of US products rely on diesel powered vehicles to deliver the last mile.
I agree with the concern about the coal fired power plants. They typically need a train load of coal every other day to stay running.

A link to a good map with power plant fuel.

The good news for (at least my AO) is that NG is the primary fuel for electrical generation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/power-plants/

Note that since 2020 about 5% of the total refinery capacity has been closed either by regulations or because of need for expensive R&M. 

So even though rig count seems to be climbing...without a refinery or the infrastructure for this future oil production (~ 1 year from now) without refinery capacity it has no where to go.
https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count

Some of the farmers here use heating oil instead of diesel. Not exactly legal and not the best for the engine but they have been doing it for years and the engines are still running. Most of the ones who do it have old tractors, 60s and earlier. I don´t know if it´s the same with modern diesel engines.
As far as I know (meaning Google told me ) heating oil and diesel used to be nearly identical, but nowadays are different enough that it can seriously damage your car.

You can "make" yeast very easily yourself. Most organic grown fruits have wild yeast fungi on them. The problem is that you don´t know what kind of yeast you get as they differ a lot, so when you find one that works and tastes nice keep it going.
I wouldn´t store flour in the bag anymore, we once had flour moths. They decimate your entire supply and once finished infest all other kinds of foods. Once they were done, they switched to eating cardboard and wallpaper. Near impossible to get rid of, we spend an entire year hunting them down.
I´ve switched where I can from grain to legumes. They are cheap, nutritious, have a long shelf live and I can sow them if need be. A very long lasting germinability, too.

Our municipal did a survey recently that we have enough food producing agriculture to be able to feed all the residents. I´m not sure if they took into account that most food produced here is wine and liqueur.

Quote from: tirls on June 10, 2022, 01:41:58 PMOur municipal did a survey recently that we have enough food producing agriculture to be able to feed all the residents. I´m not sure if they took into account that most food produced here is wine and liqueur.

Well, SHTF and we know where the party town will be!

We´ve got a spare room and a neighbour with two 500 gallon barrels of hard liquor who is willing to share. 

Nov. 03, 2021 I ordered some material we use regularly in our production cycle (when available!).  Arrived June 8th, 2022.

Normally this would be a 3-5 day delivery when in stock.

Also, for those who care about distribution issues, a railroad strike is highly likely in the next week if they don't have any new outcomes in our agreements. We've been in negotiations for 3 years now, and no one wants to budge on anything, and it has become a shit show...

Quote from: Brekar on July 11, 2022, 11:36:21 PMAlso, for those who care about distribution issues, a railroad strike is highly likely in the next week if they don't have any new outcomes in our agreements. We've been in negotiations for 3 years now, and no one wants to budge on anything, and it has become a shit show...

This and these two items in CA may pose some issues for everyone who depends upon trucking.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/deadline-looms-for-new-emissions-regulations-impacting-trucking-in-california/ar-AAZthot

QuoteBut, while CARB's Truck and Bus Regulation has been on the books for 14 years, its implementation couldn't come at a worse time. The pandemic has caused supply chain problems and a shortage of drivers. At the stroke of midnight on New Year's, an estimated 80,000 trucks will suddenly become illegal in California.
"They're going to knock out of the Port of Oakland with this rule. About 1,800 owner-operators who simply don't have the wherewithal, because of these economic conditions, to replace these trucks," said Joe Rajkovacz with the Western States Trucking Association.

And then there is this:

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/ab5-independent-california-truckers-scramble-scotus-refuses-to-hear-challenge/

QuoteA law designed to force gig-economy companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash to accept workers as employees is also having a profound impact on the trucking industry. AB5 was intended to give transport workers more workplace protections, but for truckers who own and operate their own rigs, they said it may be the end of the road.

CA has made the independent owner/operator trucker "illegal". The independent owner operators account for about 700,000 trucks in the US. So potentially a lot of truck loads will not be moved from ports in CA.

I have not a clue how these events will play out but neither is good for the logistics stream.

In the Netherlands the maximum capacity of the electric grid has been reached in North Holland, Friesland, Flevoland and Amsterdam and can and does cause bottlenecks. That is over a quarter of the population. New connections to the main electric grid, both private and industrial, cannot be guaranteed anymore unless the applicant can prove they can supply their own energy.

This is worrying as Europe has an interconnecting grid and one of the main grid operators in the Netherlands also operates the majority of the German grid. Meanwhile the price for medium voltage which a lot of companies use has risen dramatically.

I know I've said it before, but this time it is inevitable. For those who care about the likely potential distribution issues, a railroad strike will be happening on September 16th, 2022 with all of the major railroads being involved, a total of 15,000 plus people involved. We've been in negotiations for 3 years now, and no one wants to budge on anything, and it has become a shit show. Since they called our bluff, a strike will be happening. Here's hoping it won't cause all of you any issues with getting any needed supplies, and hopefully it'll be over soon.

A lot of electrical components used to build our Control Panels have had delivery times moved out 5-8+ months.  This is getting fuglier by the day.
.

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on September 12, 2022, 02:59:52 PMA lot of electrical components used to build our Control Panels have had delivery times moved out 5-8+ months.  This is getting fuglier by the day.
.

I currently work at an electronics manufacturer and we have an average order time of 24 weeks for very basic components that nearly every device needs.
They've also just got the confirmation that the electricity costs are going to increase to 10 times of that before.
I'm not very confident regarding the economy at the moment.

Quote from: Brekar on September 10, 2022, 10:44:39 PMFor those who care about the likely potential distribution issues, a railroad strike will be happening

I suspect we're all going to care by the time this is through.

I think it was an article on Bloomberg that said it was anticipated that a strike could cost the economy somewhere around $2 billion per day. 


Ah, here it is:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-11/rail-strike-deadline-carries-economic-and-political-risks-for-biden  

QuoteWith freight railroads serving agricultural, industrial, wholesale, retail and other parts of the US economy, a nationwide shutdown could cost up to $2 billion a day, the Association of American Railroads predicts. At a time of elevated inflation, the stoppage could result in plant shutdowns, lost jobs and higher costs for consumers and businesses.

That said, for what it's worth, I do hope you all get some benefits out of this--it really sounds like y'all have been getting the short end of the stick with scheduling and leave and all that.

Super glad I'm tied into a coal-fired grid now lol

We see trains of it roll through a couple times a week, I assume that's where the coal is going.

Many parts for use in refineries and other heavy industrial facilities we typically have a 6 week lead time on are now 2+ years out.

But the greatest shortage we have is skill base. We are seeing more and more facilities setting up systems to share highly skilled people and for those people to help mentor younger people. 

None of it is going smoothly.

I know the POTUS announced the rail worker issue was resolved, but I'm hearing the unions were not consulted on that deal when he announced it. Sounds like that deal is horrific for the workers. As disastrous as a rail strike would be, I would not blame the workers one bit for digging their heals in and shutting it all down. I'm a little disturbed legacy media appears to be treating it all as a done deal, crisis averted.

I noticed this morning that my local Winco has massively expanded their bulk food section and long term food storage containers/supplies. I don't think that's a slow reaction to the pandemic disruptions. I think they see future economic and distribution disruptions coming.

For years I've heard people compare our current society to the decline of the Roman Empire. I see far greater parallels to the Bronze Age collapse.

Quote from: Lodewijk on June 10, 2022, 08:50:10 AMTo my mind, the one to watch is still fuel, specifically diesel. That's the nose, most other things are tail.

We backhandedly watch diesel at work because we operate a fleet of 375+ fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and all the turbine engines run on Jet A.

I am not the fuel guy (I'm the maintenance analysis guy), but what I am being told is that manufacturing bandwidth is arranged in such a way that gasoline is sort of its own stream, and the second stream is diesel and Jet A (which are related). Accordingly, increases in diesel production eat into Jet A production, and vice versa. You can get Jet A working a diesel engine (kerosene, Jet A, and diesel #1 are all similar... diesel #2 kinda different)... so this seems intuitive.

What we see is that Jet A prices skyrocketed in March and are still climbing. The explainer so far is that on top of the Everything Shortage, diesel capacity is being prioritized so we get drenched twice when we fill the birds up. Price at the fuel terminals (i.e. raw commodity cost) is up something like 120% YoY right now, even though WTI isn't tracking that way. We eat increases a second time when paying for distribution to our bowsers (which, shocker, runs on diesel), and then a third time plus extra if we do the stupid thing and refuel at an FBO (which is relying on diesel-based distribution too... and now we gotta pay for their overhead).

And diesel PPG is going up. Not down.

Short version, distro is getting hammered. I'm not nervous yet, but thinking about the things that rely on diesel... you get unpleasant answers. Colorado's grid is like 40% coal-fired. Coal delivery runs on diesel. Gasoline delivery
to your favorite dead dinosaur pumps runs on diesel. Grocery store supply chains run on diesel. Fertilizer trucking runs on diesel.

It touches everything. I think if you don't watch anything else, that's the commodity to price-track.

The heavy crude the US used to import produced more diesel and jet fuel than the light crude we now frack domestically. The light crude from fracking produces a far higher ratio of light products than heavy products.

So on average, we now get a higher ratio of gasoline and a lower ratio of diesel from every barrel of crude.

Many refiners are trying to increase the production of biodiesel to offset this. The ones in my area have been consistently undermined in these efforts by well meaning but poorly informed activists that are adept at lawsuits and forcing never ending impact reviews by local .gov agencies anytime we want to build additional infrastructure. There's only so much we can do in converting old infrastructure, but the industry is working at it as there is far less room for activists to interfere.

Quote from: RoneKiln on September 25, 2022, 02:45:50 PMI know the POTUS announced the rail worker issue was resolved, but I'm hearing the unions were not consulted on that deal when he announced it. Sounds like that deal is horrific for the workers. As disastrous as a rail strike would be, I would not blame the workers one bit for digging their heals in and shutting it all down. I'm a little disturbed legacy media appears to be treating it all as a done deal, crisis averted.

I noticed this morning that my local Winco has massively expanded their bulk food section and long term food storage containers/supplies. I don't think that's a slow reaction to the pandemic disruptions. I think they see future economic and distribution disruptions coming.

For years I've heard people compare our current society to the decline of the Roman Empire. I see far greater parallels to the Bronze Age collapse.

The biggest issue with POTUS announcing the railroad issue being solved is what you said, no one was consulted before he started talking. Nothing is currently resolved, it's merely delayed. We've been given a contract to vote on, but honestly other than having a 24% pay increase over the next 3 years, all back pay from 2020 to current paid at around 13%, a $1,000 bonus every December till 2025, and our insurance capped at a max of $380-ish, the rest sucks. We asked for 15 paid sick days off for the entire year, they countered with 1 PL day off, and 3 annual routine or preventive health care visits to the doctor. However, those appointments must be scheduled at least 30 days in advance, and must take place on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday. The biggest issue now would be if we were to go on strike again, it would likely be in early December, which would be devastating for the Christmas time economy. Hopefully we'll never get to that point, but we'll see...