nuclear attack warning

[flybynight]

With all the dire events happening in the world right now.  I've been wondering all day if Russia actually launched an ICBM attack against the west. Would we even be warned by the government of the impending strike. Or would our first warning be the boom of the fireball rising ? When I was a kid they still had air raid drills. But that was like 45 years ago. I searched on the internet but could not find anything regarding this.

[RickOShea]

EMA has a system to alert people.....whether or not NORAD sends EMA the info is another question.

Wikipedia - 2018 Hawaii false missile alert

[majorhavoc]

With all the dire events happening in the world right now.  I've been wondering all day if Russia actually launched an ICBM attack against the west. Would we even be warned by the government of the impending strike. Or would our first warning be the boom of the fireball rising ? When I was a kid they still had air raid drills. But that was like 45 years ago. I searched on the internet but could not find anything regarding this.

Yeah, me too.  I'm a child of the Cold War and grew up having nuclear nightmares.  And one particularly enticing fantasy of just making it into our county's well-stocked bomb shelter before they locked the doors.  With Susy Van Auken in tow, the breathlessly pretty girl I pined for in eighth grade.  She would of course be beyond grateful I had saved her from nuclear annihaliation.  And it would be up to us to help repopulate society ...

(... * ...)

Sorry, where was I?  Ah yes, nuclear attack warning.  I think there are remnants of a public alert infrastructure still intact today.  But honestly, in this day and age it's something that's so far from people's consciousness, most wouldn't understand the true significance in time to do anything meaningful about it.  And in this age of hypersonic weapons, I'd be surprised if we get more than a few minutes warning.  The best we could hope for is maybe everyone's phones buzzing all of the sudden with a text alert helpfully suggesting we all kiss our asses goodbye ...

[Crosscut]

NOAA Weather Radio is one way.

Under a January 1975 White House policy statement, NOAA Weather Radio was designated the sole Government-operated radio system to provide direct warnings into homes for both natural disasters and nuclear attack.

[Dabster]

They had something when there was a false alarm in Hawaii a couple years ago. I am expecting something like that in most US states.

[Raptor]

They had something when there was a false alarm in Hawaii a couple years ago. I am expecting something like that in most US states.

If you recall in 2018 the then POTUS sent a test text message nationwide through the new emergency alert system. This was a test of that system.

If and I truly mean IF the current PTB decide to provide any warning that is likely how it will come...IF it comes.

https://www.wired.com/story/presidential-text-alert-fema-emergency-history/

[Zed hunter]

At 67 and physically disabled I'll go outside and look at the flash. 

[NT2C]

At 67 and physically disabled I'll go outside and look at the flash.

At 66 and disabled, I'll get on my Speedo and meet you in the parking lot with the tanning lotion.  We can catch some rays.

[mzmc]

I live in one of the most densely populated metropolitan areas in Europe, on the 5th floor, with a balcony overlooking a prime industrial target.

Not that this 5th floor business matters, because I'm well within fireball range for even a tactical nuke dropped onto said ground zero.

Here's a philosophical physics question: Since the human body is a complex mixture of solids, liquids, and gases, would you say it evaporates just as much as it sublimates? 🤔

[Raptor]

As noted the 2018 system is the one that would transmit the warning if it is given. If you remember Hawaii had that false alarm around the same time.

IMO the PTB will not provide any warning. I believe the most notice for  people outside of the target zones will be a loss of electricity.

Any such attack is likely to result in widespread power outages.

[mzmc]

On a more serious note, I have always maintained that there is some validity to "Duck and Cover" techniques.

It might have been government propaganda, devised to appease the population, at a point in the cold war were strategic nuclear arsenals were becoming potent enough to erase entire countries off the map.

Yes, in an all-out nuclear war between super powers, MAD doctrine in full force, many of us are toast. Or vapor, depending on circumstances.

If you consider a limited nuclear exchange between nations, or even the use of improvised nuclear devices by non-state actors, a lot of seemingly ridiculous mid-century advice starts looking reasonable, though. Shelter in place in the basement? Provided I've not been deconstructed into my constituent elements, sure.

[tirls]

We had a day where the civil defence sirens were supposed to be tested in 2020. In our entire municipal not a single one was in working order.
Then there is the circumstance that I become completely incapable of doing anything other than holding my ears closed if even the smoke detector starts in our house, so it´s probably better for me if they aren´t.
I don´t think there are any working nuclear bunkers in our area and I have tried turning a hand crank of the ventilation system of a private one before, which turned out to be impossible for a longer period. So the sirens wouldn´t be much use anyway as there is no place to take shelter.

The only possibilities are running away far enough or trying to find shelter in one of the old mines around here. Our basement is out, I live in a drafty 18^th house. If there is the chance of radiation sickness, we´ve got a lovely old castle tower still standing very close by that overlooks a nice steep drop to the Rhine valley. The biggest advantage is that I do not have any important targets nearby, so the chance of something happening is quite small even in war times. The chance of one of the ramshackle French nuclear power plants blowing up is a lot higher.

Here's a philosophical physics question: Since the human body is a complex mixture of solids, liquids, and gases, would you say it evaporates just as much as it sublimates? 🤔

Are we talking physical sublimation or psychological?
Considering the average human being consists of roughly 70% water I´d argue it mostly evaporates.
If we are talking a very dehydrated, older specimen it might get closer to equal ratio. In that case we´d have to look at the components in human tissue and how much dissociation energy is required im comparison to the dissociation energy of water. If we reach a close to equal energy, I think that should conclude it sublimates as much as it evaporates. (edit: After a quick comparison of the calorific value of the human body and the dissociation energy of the water contained in it, I`m now convinced that the human body mostly evaporates.)

[echo83]

With all the dire events happening in the world right now.  I've been wondering all day if Russia actually launched an ICBM attack against the west. Would we even be warned by the government of the impending strike. Or would our first warning be the boom of the fireball rising ? When I was a kid they still had air raid drills. But that was like 45 years ago. I searched on the internet but could not find anything regarding this.

I remember watching the Electric Company as a kid and getting goosebumps every time they tested the Emergency Broadcast System. That's longer ago than I want it to be, but there must be something like that still in place, something more substantial than the test text we all got back in 2018. 

I'm just inside the blast radius and near a large city, though, so I'd be a shadow on the wall by the time it came through. 

First, though, I'd grab some marshmallows, Hershey's bars and a couple of graham crackers, walk out to the front yard and turn south. 

[NT2C]

I'm well under 50 miles from the White House and there's over two dozen high-value military targets within 100 miles.  I'll never see or feel a thing.

[Crosscut]

As noted the 2018 system is the one that would transmit the warning if it is given. If you remember Hawaii had that false alarm around the same time.

IMO the PTB will not provide any warning. I believe the most notice for  people outside of the target zones will be a loss of electricity.

Any such attack is likely to result in widespread power outages.

The FEMA and NOAA alerting systems are connected, although it does sound more like an optional and manual process rather than automatic:

Effective Summer 2021, the connection between FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) and NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) is online! After extensive development and testing to replace the HazCollect application, you can now send alerts through the National Weather Service gateway for dissemination to consumer NWR receivers and over other National Weather Service systems.

NOAA weather radio is more reliable in my area than cell reception, and suspect that's true in many other rural areas. 

Conspiracy theories about a planned/coordinated mass depopulation event aside, I'd think politicians, bureaucrats, and the military would want to alert the public of a large scale nuclear attack if they could since I doubt they want to grow their own food, manufacture their own goods, and have their own children drafted.  It'd be nice to know that FEMA/DHS have something beyond just the initial notification/alerting written up in a classified appendix to the National Response Plan too, like regular reporting of predicted fallout areas and patterns, radiation levels, and safe daily exposure limits when working outdoors.

[tirls]

I'm well under 50 miles from the White House and there's over two dozen high-value military targets within 100 miles.  I'll never see or feel a thing.

I don´t think that´s necessarily the case.
Over 10% of the people in Hiroshima and Nagasaki within a 1 km radius of the explosion survived initially. Even with the higher explosive power of some nuclear weapons nowadays I don´t think its unlikely to survive within a couple of miles radius.

Neither do I think nuclear weapons would be deployed in a widespread bombing of one area, but more as a tactical tool for demoralization targeting objects of symbolic significance or to make certain economic targets uninhabitable. They are expensive after all.
I´d also love to say that I don´t think any opponent would turn an area that is close to them into nuclear wasteland but after the stellar performance of Russian troops in Chernobyl this year I´m not so sure.

[Raptor]

IMO the PTB will not provide any warning. I believe the most notice for  people outside of the target zones will be a loss of electricity.

Free bump for discussion:


I should clarify my thought here as to why:

1. A massive (or even a restrained) attack is likely to be entail central communications, control and power grids. Attacks on power grids being the simplest and easiest to accomplish. No power reduces the comms network and that means a delay in type of signal.

2. Notice by text provides minimal benefit. From the time any such attack is launched there can be as little as 20 minutes once detected until impact (much less if it is an SLBM or cruise missile attack). In that time it has to be  verified as legitimate and valid then pushed up the chain of command for action authorization. The primary thought for the PTB will be to relocate to a safe area leaving not much time to make a decision and authorize a warning. 

So for the sake of discussion lets assume you received a text (just like Honolulu did) saying a "ballistic missile is inbound and this is not a drill".

The odds are good that it is already too late to do anything but to "sound the collision alarm and brace for impact".

IMO what is more likely to happen is a power grid imbalance followed by an immediate power outage. 

What is everyone else's thoughts on the matter?
    

[Crosscut]

90 second Nuclear Preparedness PSA video from NYC Emergency Management released today: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-5d7V4Sbqk

Knowing is half the battle, the other half of the battle apparently involves nuclear weapons.

[Raptor]

This article discusses what some residents of Hawaii did after the warning:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42680070

For some it was panic, a dash to a protective bathtub or hiding under manholes, contemplating what could be their last moments. For others, a resigned acceptance, thinking that staring at the beauty of Hawaii was not a bad way to go.
Hassan Deen, a student at Hawaii Pacific University, told the BBC the alert sparked a frenzy and he was locked for 47 minutes with 29 other students in a room with rubbish bins.
SNIP....
Marathon runner Lucja Leonard said she had heard of children being "pushed into drainpipes to get them protected".
"We all just huddled together and just thought - well, you know - if this is going to be the end I guess we're in a beautiful place, doing something we love but - God - it was pretty scary."

[NT2C]

I'm well under 50 miles from the White House and there's over two dozen high-value military targets within 100 miles.  I'll never see or feel a thing.

I don´t think that´s necessarily the case.
Over 10% of the people in Hiroshima and Nagasaki within a 1 km radius of the explosion survived initially. Even with the higher explosive power of some nuclear weapons nowadays I don´t think its unlikely to survive within a couple of miles radius.

Neither do I think nuclear weapons would be deployed in a widespread bombing of one area, but more as a tactical tool for demoralization targeting objects of symbolic significance or to make certain economic targets uninhabitable. They are expensive after all.
I´d also love to say that I don´t think any opponent would turn an area that is close to them into nuclear wasteland but after the stellar performance of Russian troops in Chernobyl this year I´m not so sure.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki were each hit with a single, very low-yield atomic bomb.  Considering we're talking about the White House, major military bases like Andrews Air Force Base, Quantico Marine Base (home of the FBI Academy too), Portsmith Naval Shipyards, Norfolk Navy Base, and a slew of locations operated by various clandestine agencies, if we didn't get plastered with less than a dozen hydrogen bombs I'd be very surprised.