War in Ukraine

[Mr. E. Monkey]

A BBC News article about how the war in Ukraine is affecting production of sunflower oil which is used in so many familiar foodstuffs. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60941091

At the moment, Ukrainian farmers should be sowing the seeds now for the harvest in October and November.
"Clearly that's not going to happen... we're probably going to miss the season so we could be impacted for 12-18 months."

They should have a good crop next year, though. 

[majorhavoc]

A BBC News article about how the war in Ukraine is affecting production of sunflower oil which is used in so many familiar foodstuffs. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60941091

At the moment, Ukrainian farmers should be sowing the seeds now for the harvest in October and November.
"Clearly that's not going to happen... we're probably going to miss the season so we could be impacted for 12-18 months."

They should have a good crop next year, though.

Yes, the fields of Ukraine will be well fortified with  Russian fertilizer.

[Moab]

A BBC News article about how the war in Ukraine is affecting production of sunflower oil which is used in so many familiar foodstuffs. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60941091

At the moment, Ukrainian farmers should be sowing the seeds now for the harvest in October and November.
"Clearly that's not going to happen... we're probably going to miss the season so we could be impacted for 12-18 months."

Sunflower oil is a tiny issue. Russia and ukraine produce 30% of the worlds wheat. Many starving, barely making it smaller nations, depend on wheat just to keep their citizens alive. Imagine the chaos that will happen around the world without it. Africa alone will probably degrade into civil wars. (Not that it isnt already like that.)

In answer to mr e monkey. Yes. I think its mariupol. It was the one bombed off the map iirc. And they are just starting to get back in there to assess damage and dead bodies.

Lviv is a big city with many suburbs that had been occupied by the russians. That they just left. And the ukrainians are just getting back into. But imagine. Lviv is just one city. There are cities, towns and villages all over ukraine that have been bombed or occupied by the russians. Many verbal reports of executions, tortures and rapes have been being spread via cellphone and internet for weeks. But not widely reported as there was no way to confirm them in person. We will see as officials get more access to those areas.

The interviews on video with some residents depict a crazy occupation tho. Like something out of wwii. They take over a town. Round up all the citizens into the local school or whatever large building they can find. Put everyones hands behind their backs against a wall. Making them look down. And asking everyone where the nazis are. Who has unlicensed guns etc etc. Then torturing people in school rooms. Executing people with a shot to the head.

The video out of bucha in the old ladies backyard was gruesome. The dead guy was bound hand and foot, his pants were pulled down and you could see massive purple brusing all along his legs. I cant imagine what they used to make bruises that big. He had been shot in the head.

They are saying now that the video of the ukrainians shooting captive russian soldiers in the legs was a deep fake out of russia. So who knows. But there is to much video now for it all to be deep fake. No matter which side it came from.

They also took down the largest market on the darkweb. I think it was called hydra. Millions of customer accounts and thousands of ventors buying and selling illegal goods. But the darkweb has dozens of markets. They will have simply logged in to another one by this morning.

I think the financial sanctions are having a deep effect on the russian people. But that may be just reenforcing russias claim that this is all our fault. And not theirs.

I have no idea what the solution is though. They have to many nukes. And Putin is to unstable. Who knows what that crazy cat might do. But hes kind of holding the world hostage at this point.

[Raptor]

Some interesting takeaways. The reduction in sunflower oil means substitutes like rapeseed oil go up in cost.

Rapeseed is used far more in the food supply chain, according to the National Edible Oil Distributors' Association.

British farmers grow rapeseed but there won't be enough to go round.

"Prices for rapeseed oil have risen 50-70% since the attack," said NEODA's President Gary Lewis. "But there's a limited supply to cover all this demand so some shortfall will be expected."

Then there is this kinda important tidbit at least to people with allergies to rapeseed oil. Note this is the UK and may not apply elsewhere. Reading the package is not enough.

One immediate headache he and other food manufacturers don't have to worry about is labelling. They're being allowed to switch ingredients without having to print new packaging, which can take up to 12 weeks.

Emily Miles, chief executive at the Food Standards Agency, said allergic reactions to rapeseed oil were "very rare and if they do occur are mild", and advised anyone with allergies to look out for extra information.

[majorhavoc]

You're right. And add to that list barley and fertilizer. A significant portion of the world's supply comes from those two countries. So global markets for both food and energy are being severely disrupted.

This on top of existing supply chain problems.  Literally billions of people around the globe are in for a world of hurt for a couple of years, if not longer.  And that will have all sorts of unintended consequences that we can only begin to anticipate.

[Moab]

https://youtu.be/HaCD0XlxYgA

[Blast]

https://www.cultofmac.com/772001/ukrainians-use-find-my-to-track-russian-troops-who-stole-devices/
OPSEC? Who needs OPSEC?!
-Blast

[aikorob]

Russian spokesman said let's turn it up a notch:

https://t.me/rian_ru/158246
Google translate:
Pushilin said that at least 1.5 thousand Ukrainian militants were blocked in the Azovstal area
Basurin said that it makes no sense to storm the underground fortifications of Azovstal in Mariupol, you need to 'turn to the chemical troops'

'There are underground floors, so it makes no sense to take this object by storm. Because you can put a large number of your soldiers, and the enemy will not suffer losses as such'

"Therefore, at the moment it is necessary to deal with the blocking of this plant, find all the exits and entrances - in principle, this can be done.

and boom---

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u1f0v7/the_azov_regiment_claim_that_a_chemical_weapon/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u1hiqs/azov_leader_biletsky_confirms_chemical_attack_in/

[Moab]

Russian spokesman said let's turn it up a notch:

https://t.me/rian_ru/158246
Google translate:
Pushilin said that at least 1.5 thousand Ukrainian militants were blocked in the Azovstal area
Basurin said that it makes no sense to storm the underground fortifications of Azovstal in Mariupol, you need to 'turn to the chemical troops'

'There are underground floors, so it makes no sense to take this object by storm. Because you can put a large number of your soldiers, and the enemy will not suffer losses as such'

"Therefore, at the moment it is necessary to deal with the blocking of this plant, find all the exits and entrances - in principle, this can be done.

and boom---

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u1f0v7/the_azov_regiment_claim_that_a_chemical_weapon/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u1hiqs/azov_leader_biletsky_confirms_chemical_attack_in/

Jesus christ. What is the world gonna do with these dispicable people? "Lets just gas them." We are reliving WWI. How do we get oast the real fear of them using nukes? And put them back in place? Within their borders? And in a sound mindset? Can that even be done?

[Moab]

Does anyone else wonder what help nato and the us are giving ukraine that they arent telling anyone about?

I'm watching this video of the ukrainians taking out an entire column of russian tanks. While its being video recorded by a drone. And all I can think is "man we must have some interesting military capabilities that none of us know about!". And alot of it must be being used in ukraine. I mean there has to be hundreds of SF forces there that we are never going to be told about. Imagine what technology is also being used?

[majorhavoc]

https://www.mainepublic.org/npr-news/2022-04-13/images-of-zelenskyy-show-the-physical-toll-that-trauma-and-stress-can-have-on-the-body

I can't begin to imagine the levels of stress this guy is enduring.

Relating this to the topic of prepping, I've often thought about self-styled lone wolf survivalists who plan on riding out the apocalypse armed only with solid bushcraft skills and a well equipped INCH bag. Some of them almost seem to want that to happen.

I think most of them have absolutely no clue what living in such a world would really be like.

[Moab]

The flagship vessel of Russias Black Sea fleet has sunk. After being hit by missiles. But Russia says it sank while being towed to port.



https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-black-sea-estonia-8ccaa918f813a844321187ed116ff091

[majorhavoc]

The flagship vessel of Russias Black Sea fleet has sunk. After being hit by missiles. But Russia says it sank while being towed to port.



https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-black-sea-estonia-8ccaa918f813a844321187ed116ff091

Hmmm.  I'll take Russian Military Incompetence for $400, Alex.  What?  The Daily Double!  Russian Military Incompetence and Neptune's Revenge?  Why, that would be "What is the Moskva an example of?" 

I believe that was the very ship that Ukranian border guards on Snake Island famously told to go f*ck off.  Poetic justice? 

[Moab]

The flagship vessel of Russias Black Sea fleet has sunk. After being hit by missiles. But Russia says it sank while being towed to port.



https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-black-sea-estonia-8ccaa918f813a844321187ed116ff091

Hmmm.  I'll take Russian Military Incompetence for $400, Alex.  What?  The Daily Double!  Russian Military Incompetence and Neptune's Revenge?  Why, that would be "What is the Moskva an example of?" 

I believe that was the very ship that Ukranian border guards on Snake Island famously told to go f*ck off.  Poetic justice? 

Oh man! Really?! That would be poetic justice.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

I thought the Snake Island ship already got sunk by the Ukrainians?

Or was that a different one that got sunk a couple weeks back ?

[majorhavoc]

I thought the Snake Island ship already got sunk by the Ukrainians?

Or was that a different one that got sunk a couple weeks back ?

I know a Russian amphibious support ship was destroyed while docked in a captured Ukrainian port. But I think the Moskva, pride of the Black Sea fleet was in fact involved in the Snake Island operation. If true, that's just priceless.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-704106/amp

In addition to the news link above and others like it, the artist who produced that entry in Ukraine's stamp design contest certainly lavished considerable detail on that ship to make it look like the Moskva. So I'm inclined to believe it was the same ship. Here's hoping. 

[Raptor]

The reports that I read said the Moscow was steaming offshore in a very predictable an repetitive race track pattern. That would indicate that was operational and therefore should have had a full crew at action or at least standby status. In other words this flagship would have operating its surface and air search radars and had their CIWS operational  and ready.
The missile(s) were shore launched Ukrainian made copies of an older Russian missile albeit likely  updated version of the  "Harpoonski". Since the launchers operate in a group it is likely that more than 1 was launched.
It is also likely if they were operating a race track pattern that it would have been detected by the on watch crew.

What happened is anyone's guess since each side is likely to be less than candid.

It may been something like the Stark with other gear interfering with sensors or simple a major malfunction of crew or gear. Either way the result was clear; a relatively low tech missile cost Russia millions in a lost vessel an prestige in the humiliation of a flag ship sunk.

Russia keeps digging the humiliation hole deeper and deeper. While this wad not the scale of its humiliation in the Russo-Japanese War, it is getting close to it.

[EBuff75]

The reports that I read said the Moscow was steaming offshore in a very predictable an repetitive race track pattern. That would indicate that was operational and therefore should have had a full crew at action or at least standby status. In other words this flagship would have operating its surface and air search radars and had their CIWS operational  and ready.
The missile(s) were shore launched Ukrainian made copies of an older Russian missile albeit likely  updated version of the  "Harpoonski". Since the launchers operate in a group it is likely that more than 1 was launched.
It is also likely if they were operating a race track pattern that it would have been detected by the on watch crew.

What happened is anyone's guess since each side is likely to be less than candid.

It may been something like the Stark with other gear interfering with sensors or simple a major malfunction of crew or gear. Either way the result was clear; a relatively low tech missile cost Russia millions in a lost vessel an prestige in the humiliation of a flag ship sunk.

Russia keeps digging the humiliation hole deeper and deeper. While this wad not the scale of its humiliation in the Russo-Japanese War, it is getting close to it.

There's an article on CNN today about the sinking which points out that, regardless of which version is correct (fire which got out of control and sank the ship, or a Ukrainian missile strike - whether or not it caused the fire), neither of them are a good look for the Russians.  The final sentence sums up what I would consider to be a significant gap in capabilities/training for their navy: 

And Soviet-era warships like the Moskva have been typically "known for their offensive punch, not for their defensive systems or their damage control," Shugart said.

Sounds similar to the "if it breaks, throw it away and get another one" mindset that their army follow for trucks/tanks. When that's coupled with poor maintenance, you end up just dumping a lot of stuff at the side of the road for very minor issues.  But it's strange to think of naval flagships as being "disposable" in nature, which is basically what you get if you can't protect/save them.

Which gives you all of the great memes about Ukrainian tractors being apex predators! 

[EBuff75]

This article gives an interesting look into the role of trucks in the military and how critical they are to modern warfare.  It then goes into the failings in Russian logistics and how that has resulted in so many trucks being abandoned / destroyed, along with their reliance on conscript troops, who aren't in the military long enough to really learn how to properly maintain vehicles. 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/14/europe/ukraine-war-russia-trucks-logistics-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

[majorhavoc]

US intelligence sources are reporting that other ships in that naval group have relocated further south, putting more distance between them and the Ukrainian coastline. Something that wouldn't be necessary if it were an accidental fire. Relocating other ships in the area bolsters the anti-ship missile theory.

I've read several reports suggesting that while a demoralizing blow to Russian national pride, the loss isn't expected to have a significant impact on the war. But I have to wonder. In addition to a potent missile launch platform, wouldn't a capital surface asset be a significant communications and control hub for the southern portion of the war effort?  Much as logistical support has proven to be a major limitation on Russia's plans, I'd think command and control would also be an important factor.

So sayeth this armchair general who never even served.