The best places to ride out the apocalypse

[PistolPete]

Well, at least according to The Guardian.  They suggest, Iceland, Ireland and New Zealand.  I have heard New Zealand mentioned in various articles before, due to wind patterns and nuclear fallout.  In fact, a few years ago they passed a law restricting land purchase by non-citizens since so much of their land was being bought up by billionaires worldwide to build fall-back estates.

The more interesting bit is how this is on people's minds enough to write an article.  Increasingly when I chat with people they feel a collapse is coming, they just don't know when or how.

Article from the Guardian

[Raptor]

Interesting article.

Apocalypse means many things to many people. Unfortunately hollywood has chimed in many times on their interpretation of these scenarios they frequently involve car chases, guns firing, brave whitty one liners as the hero delivers the coup de grace to the villain. IMO the only hollywood movie that showed anything close to the reality of such an event is Schindler's List.

The reality of an apocalypse (at least the ones we know about) can be seen in many historic conquests, progroms and brutalization of people in venues too numerous to list. More modern ones include: The Armenia genocide, The Great Purge, The Jewish Holocaust "Final Solution", Cambodia Kymer Rouge's genocide, Mao's "Cultural Revolution", Balkan "Ethic Cleansing" and more recently the Rwandan Genocide...just to name a few of the big ones in the last 100 years +/-.
Notice that I omitted WW-1 & WW-2, Korea and several other wars. Which IMO were a whole other level of apocalypse depending upon your perspective.

The point I am trying to make is that we have seen many apocalypses and likely will see many many more. People are justified in their belief that another apocalypse is due. I thought in April of 2020 that COVID may have been the start of the next one. It obviously was not.

That said IMO there will be another genocide or Holocaust and it likely will have some pleasant "smilely face" name like "Ethnic Cleansing", "Cultural Revolution" or similar name to disguise its true purpose and horror. The instigators will likely claim that is for the good of the people, dehumanize the victims and in general make seem normal to commit genocide. The mindset that "The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic." will govern the leaders of the movement.

We see some this vocabulary in the politics of today by people who should (but don't) care or know better.

As for best place to go? My opinion is stay home and do whatever you can to prevent it in your home land (even if it only a little bit). If and/or when they come to load you and or your neighbors in the boxcars...well all I can say is "rage, rage against the dying of the light and do not go gently into that good night".

Me? I am staying home for the apocalypse.

[the_alias]

I would need to look up information but I think all three of those countries import the vast majority of their calories for citizens.

We have the Midwest and export more than 35% of food stuffs.

Think about that...

I can't imagine New Zealand or Iceland, or Ireland, all places I have been being able to self sufficiently produce enough food for people...One of those countries already has very real experience of famine in the modern era.

Life in Iceland I think always hung a bit on a knife edge, the sea provides a lot of bounty so I could be off there but....

[Mr. E. Monkey]

It's an interesting article.  I disagree with it on a few points.

1.  If a large number of people think that those locations are the best places to be, then that's exactly where I don't want to be.  Besides, Australia gave us Mad Max.  I don't have assless chaps, so I'm going to have to pass on that, just on principle. 

2.  It seems odd that on one hand, they state that "(T)he globe-spanning, energy-intensive industrial civilisation that characterises the modern era represents an anomalous situation when it is considered against the majority of human history," yet the very first line in their abstract states that "(H)uman civilisation has undergone a continuous trajectory of rising sociopolitical complexity since its inception."  In other words, our current complexity is not an anomaly, but rather a logical step in the direction that human civilization has been heading practically since day 1.

3.  In the discussion on the actual study here, they note that:

Alongside agriculture, access to domestic sources of energy is required to support the continuation of fundamental societal functions and therefore support the formation of 'nodes of persisting complexity'. For example, renewable electricity generation capacity could permit the ongoing operation of crucial infrastructure (e.g., communications networks, pumping and treatment of water for irrigation and supply and manufacturing capacity) that would be necessary to support key capabilities.
It is noted that highly complex technological systems such as power grids are reliant on technical knowledge and physical components, the provision of which is at least in part via highly specialised manufacturing and globalised supply chains (which is a key vulnerability [76]). In the event of a failure of these systems at global scale due to a 'de-complexification' event, the viability of the ongoing operation of large electrical systems exploiting renewable energy systems or the development new sources (e.g., drilling new deep hydrothermal wells) could potentially be in doubt. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that grids could be maintained at some level of functionality through domestic manufacturing capacity. We also assume that other import dependencies of domestic industries including fertilizer or farm machinery can be discounted by assuming that a sustainable intensification of agriculture would be adopted in the event of a de-complexification event, or substitutions of key resources would be possible.

I think those assumptions may prove faulty in any collapse, much less in a more isolated, lower-population area, such as they have suggested.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

I thought in April of 2020 that COVID may have been the start of the next one. It obviously was not.

Give it time.  Covid ain't done with us yet...nor, I think, have we seen the full economic effects.

That said IMO there will be another genocide or Holocaust and it likely will have some pleasant "smilely face" name like "Ethnic Cleansing", "Cultural Revolution" or similar name to disguise its true purpose and horror. The instigators will likely claim that is for the good of the people, dehumanize the victims and in general make seem normal to commit genocide. The mindset that "The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic." will govern the leaders of the movement.

Treatment of Uighurs in China comes to mind.

As for best place to go? My opinion is stay home and do whatever you can to prevent it in your home land (even if it only a little bit). If and/or when they come to load you and or your neighbors in the boxcars...well all I can say is "rage, rage against the dying of the light and do not go gently into that good night".

Me? I am staying home for the apocalypse.

Amen to that, Raptor.

[Raptor]

Treatment of Uighurs in China comes to mind.

Actually that is an excellent example. I forgot about it. In many ways the eradication of the Uighurs and the lack of attention to it is typical. The Great Purge got a similar lack of air time in the press of its day. This is due in some part the suppression of the facts by perpetrators but mainly for reasons of politics... I guess it is awkward to ask a neighbor publicly "Excuse me but why are slaughtering those people?"     


One final reason to stay home if you are a US citizen...if the US descended into "ethic cleansing' type chaos; IMO no country would want US refugees.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Treatment of Uighurs in China comes to mind.

Actually that is an excellent example. I forgot about it. In many ways the eradication of the Uighurs and the lack of attention to it is typical. The Great Purge got a similar lack of air time in the press of its day. This is due in some part the suppression of the facts by perpetrators but mainly for reasons of politics... I guess it is awkward to ask a neighbor publicly "Excuse me but why are slaughtering those people?"     

That, and it's a lot easier to ignore not pay attention to it when it's happening to somebody else, way over there.  It's hard to put yourself in somebody else's shoes if you hardly even know they exist, much less knowing anything about them to begin with.   

One final reason to stay home if you are a US citizen...if the US descended into "ethic cleansing' type chaos; IMO no country would want US refugees.

I think that if things ever got to that point, few countries would be able to take, much less want, any refugees, much less those from the US.  Look at how the Great Depression impacted the global economy; when you think about how much more interconnected we are now...

[PistolPete]

My thoughts on the whole "staying at home" approach-  I'm really torn. 

I agree that the fall isn't going to look like Mad Max, it's going to look a lot more like Venezuela, I imagine.  Slowly it will be harder and harder for a fair portion of the population to cover rent and food.  Then it will be harder for anyone to afford food, simply because it will be harder find.  People will become tribal, and those on the edges won't do nearly as well.

If that seems inevitable, at least in the US, one could have a much higher quality of life in another country.  What countries are those exactly?  Well, certainly not ones who are the most authoritarian in the post-covid world.  China, of course, but also Canada, Ireland, the UK, Australia and New Zealand have certainly led the world when it comes to authoritarian mandates in response to covid.  Since the virus is now endemic, and predicted to be in general circulation for 20-30 years, choosing a country that is sending soldiers door to door using a virus as an excuse probably isn't the right choice for me.

The real question I have is whether the US is on that path or not.  We regularly see national guard deployed for civil disturbances in recent years, I wouldn't be surprised to see them deployed to promote a CDC final solution to covid.  A less authoritarian country has a lot of allure right now.  Czech Republic, Sweden, Nicaragua, Mexico all have significant communities of US ex-pats and some of them are pretty affordable.  There are even a couple outfits building communities in central America designed for English speaking people, and purchase price includes assistance getting dual citizenship.

So all year I have been asking the question- "Is it better to have a BOL nearby in the Ozarks or one in Belize".  Which way seems preferable vacillates based on the news of the week.  The US really seems to be headed down an ugly path and I'm really weary of paying so much in taxes to fund so much immoral behavior by the US government.  Having to find a new job in another country is less daunting for me, since as a tech worker I am pretty portable.  But leaving people behind to suffer under a failing economy while I thrive comes with a mental cost, for sure.

[Raptor]

Czech Republic, Sweden, Nicaragua, Mexico all have significant communities of US ex-pats and some of them are pretty affordable.  There are even a couple outfits building communities in central America designed for English speaking people, and purchase price includes assistance getting dual citizenship.

So all year I have been asking the question- "Is it better to have a BOL nearby in the Ozarks or one in Belize".  Which way seems preferable vacillates based on the news of the week.  The US really seems to be headed down an ugly path and I'm really weary of paying so much in taxes to fund so much immoral behavior by the US government.  Having to find a new job in another country is less daunting for me, since as a tech worker I am pretty portable.  But leaving people behind to suffer under a failing economy while I thrive comes with a mental cost, for sure.

Here is the thing anyplace to which you would relocate you will be an outsider. If you do decide to relocate you should spend the time and effort that it will take to establish your self and become their outsider. This is something that will take time and effort. It cannot be bought and in fact you want to avoid buying it. The goal should be to establish you, your knowledge, advice and work skills as valuable...not your bank account.

In fact in my experience especially in 3rd and 2nd world countries your perceived wealth will be a great impediment to this effort.

I'm really weary of paying so much in taxes to fund so much immoral behavior by the US government.

I am not trying to get political but many of the countries you cited have high tax rates. Also in order to avoid US tax even on income earned in other countries you will have renounce US citizenship and pay the "exit" tax.
(note as with all US tax law there are exceptions and these are subject to change in the future).

More on the US exit tax.
US "exit tax

It is interesting to note that CA is trying to impose a wealth tax over a 10 year period which would hit anyone who lived in CA and moved. The penalties for under reporting the tax due started at $1mm.

The National Taxpayers Union Foundation writes, "A person subject to the tax who chooses to leave the state will still be subject to it for ten years, at a sliding scale, amounting to a 1.80 percent exit tax. Understatement of tax would carry a penalty of the greater of $1 million or 20 percent of the tax due, on top of existing tax penalties."

https://moskowitzllp.com/californias-exit-tax-explained/

I mention this because many totalitarian states build fences around their countries to prevent citizens from leaving. In the 1930's NAZI Germany allowedjews to leave but had to leave everything they owned behind and if they could get residency in another country.

If this exit tax by CA if upheld by a court would to me be an answer to the question you pondered. 

This last part's logic ties in with this thought:

I wouldn't be surprised to see them deployed to promote a CDC final solution to covid.

[PistolPete]

Here is the thing anyplace to which you would relocate you will be an outsider.

Oh, for sure.  But I'm increasingly feeling like an outsider where I live now- constantly wondering when the modern gestapo is going to show up to harm me in some way.  Not to diminish your point though- it's a valid one.

I am not trying to get political but many of the countries you cited have high tax rates. Also in order to avoid US tax even on income earned in other countries you will have renounce US citizenship and pay the "exit" tax.
(note as with all US tax law there are exceptions and these are subject to change in the future).

More on the US exit tax.
US "exit tax

It is interesting to note that CA is trying to impose a wealth tax over a 10 year period which would hit anyone who lived in CA and moved. The penalties for under reporting the tax due started at $1mm.

The National Taxpayers Union Foundation writes, "A person subject to the tax who chooses to leave the state will still be subject to it for ten years, at a sliding scale, amounting to a 1.80 percent exit tax. Understatement of tax would carry a penalty of the greater of $1 million or 20 percent of the tax due, on top of existing tax penalties."

https://moskowitzllp.com/californias-exit-tax-explained/

Right.  Every year that goes by the US is going to make it harder and harder to leave.  If one waits too long, the US government may well strip them of the resources needed to thrive somewhere else.  Also- certain countries like Belize are very kind to US ex-pats when it comes to taxes.  They have a program that if you have $x in passive income and don't apply for a job permit, you in fact pay no taxes.  The barrier to entry is pretty low.

I mention this because many totalitarian states build fences around their countries to prevent citizens from leaving.

Totally agree.  That wall / fence we are building on our southern border works to keep people in better than keep people out and every year we build more of it.  Another reason it seems like it's time to go.

[Raptor]

Do some hard diligence on Belize including time in country. The reality of the place outside of the tourist spots is a bit different than some ex-pat blogs suggest. Now it may have changed in the last 5 years so YMMV

[Lambykins]

Right now...if everything went tits up tomorrow, I think I am in a good location.
Off the beaten path, far enough from the interstate road system to discourage the *golden horde*, close community, fairly food self-sufficient (as long as you aren't desperate for exotic items), enough water sources, plenty of citizens with firearms, and VERY importantly, if it comes down to it---IF--- the access to my area can literally be cut off to motorized vehicles by judicious application of high explosives to a couple of passes in the mountains and a couple of bridges.

We have plenty of area for agriculture endeavors, livestock, etc.
The only bad thing is the climate. Short growing season which limits the variety of crops, ever present need for heating sources  (although we have loads of firewood due to it being highly forested here) and also a lack of manufacturing resources---so would have difficulty obtaining building supplies, clothing, etc.

I wouldn't go to New Zealand or Belize or Ireland (or anywhere in the UK)...
The Maori are not going to be very welcoming to these new interlopers on their territory and ancestral lands. And locals that have lived their entire lives (plus parents & grandparents, etc) aren't going to appreciate those with *deep pockets* showing up and pricing them out of the local real estate markets and economy.
Belize, (or anywhere in central or south America) just no. It used to be pretty good for the ex-pat community...but, resentment grew, crime grew.

Ireland and the UK might have been a good choice...until (not trying to be political here) masses of refugees arrived there in the past 10 to 20 years and have massively changed the *tone* of many parts of the country.

My best advice for a bug out location?
Find a place you feel comfortable and safe. A place you can afford. A place you can establish yourself as part of the local community. Establish bonds of trust with your neighbors.
Look at the "worst case scenarios" for that location and how it can be alleviated (or if it can).
I suggest the book "Strategic Relocation" for those looking.

[Moab]

Food for thought. This is a recent podcast dealing with someone that escaped north korea. The leadership is starving the population. Literally. Its a modern day holocaust. She details bodies in the streets daily, covered in rats and children catching the rats and eating them. Only to die of disease.


https://open.spotify.com/episode/0G5o6GYjWgbSvKG3W2W2xO?si=NK8J34_WT7umfxTFox2VqQ&utm_source=copy-link&dl_branch=1

Short description of the death.


https://youtu.be/KK6psAnynUA

[Moab]

New Zealand actually has alot of agriculture. But they arent to keen om foreigners.

Alaska is where my moneys at. Its the only place with enough wild game to support a paw crisis. And enough space. You need special skills for sure. And you can still grow much of the year with greenhouses. Try doing this in rural areas in the lower 48. And you end up with to many people. To much stealing. And to much conflict.

Ive been to Belize. Terrible idea. Its a third world country. Only benefit is they speak broken English. And its to close to mexico, guatemala etc.

[Tony D Tiger]

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/google-larry-page-residency/2021/08/06/id/1031348/

Apparently good enough for some folks...

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

No offense to the Guardian, but in case of apocalypse, I'm staying in my AO.

I know the area, all my stuff is here, and most importantly I know a few folks out here who'd have no issue helping out in times of trouble.

Also, I'm pretty sure I've got relatives in Belize and I'm certain they'd sell me out for a pack of gum to any potential war lords that may pop up in an apocalyptic scenario.

[flybynight]

No offense to the Guardian, but in case of apocalypse, I'm staying in my AO.

I know the area, all my stuff is here, and most importantly I know a few folks out here who'd have no issue helping out in times of trouble.

Also, I'm pretty sure I've got relatives in Belize and I'm certain they'd sell me out for a pack of gum to any potential war lords that may pop up in an apocalyptic scenario.

What kind of gum ?  I mean , some gum DOES taste better than others 

[flybynight]

oh and I'm riding out TEOTWAWKI from the comfort of home. Plus I have popcorn here

[RoneKiln]

In theory I love the idea of New Zealand, but I've never even visited much less have any resources there.

In reality, I'm staying with my people. This isn't a survival decision. It's a values decision.

[boskone]

I think any bugout lair that can't be reached on one tank of gas is, for most people, a waste of resources.  One that'll eventually be close is, of course, a special case.

A rich person can probably keep a plane on standby, and someone with sailing skills and a readied boat could get somewhere.  But most of us?  We have at best a few hours to get somewhere and settle in.  The chance of most of the lower 48 being able to reach Alaska, much less somewhere like Belize or New Zealand is close enough to zero as to make no difference.

The best bet is to be somewhere we can make friends.  The only reason I wouldn't consider this a good location is because we're right along an arterial path from Houston; I remember this entire area of the state being basically locked down last time Houston evacuated.

Ideally, I'll have a place a bit off the beaten path.  Prior to that, I have a place a couple hours' north I could probably get to (or 3-4 days' walk, if it came to it).  With more warning, all the way out in Abilene; if any group could come to a reasonable degree of self-sufficiency, it'd be the people around the family farm...and we've been friends with most them for literally decades.  In a couple cases, more than a century.