Supply Chain Breakdowns

[sheddi]

There was a talking head on BBC Radio 4 earlier with some statistics:

• UK needs 375k truck drivers, had 300k in January 2020, currently 285k (a 5% drop, my wild-ass guess was accurate!)
• COVID lockdown prevented 45k truck driving tests being taken (but not all would have passed)

You can see that, in this context, 5000 additional short-term work visas aren't going to have a huge effect.

[Raptor]

There was a talking head on BBC Radio 4 earlier with some statistics:

• UK needs 375k truck drivers, had 300k in January 2020, currently 285k (a 5% drop, my wild-ass guess was accurate!)
• COVID lockdown prevented 45k truck driving tests being taken (but not all would have passed)

You can see that, in this context, 5000 additional short-term work visas aren't going to have a huge effect.

Yes, based upon those #s 5,000 drivers is not a fix.

Now IF the 5,000 drivers were the UK equivalent of HAZMAT certified for tanker transport AND dedicated to fuel deliveries AND the drive time restrictions were relaxed they could likely improve that supply issue. That said  that is a lot of IFs & ANDs.

I would suggest that your son get a 5 gallon jerry can and fill it the next time he gets in line for petrol. If he is waiting in line he may as well maximize his time investment. I hope I am wrong but this does not sound like a quick fix any time soon.

In the 1970s when the US had it gas lines and shortages there was the initial panic and horrendous lines. The .gov tried using the odd/even day plan to help people reduce the lines and spread demand but that was dismal failure. What happened was everyone who normally drove around with 1/2 to 1/4 of a tank decided to drive around with a full tank. They would get in the line when the needle got to 3/4 of a tank. That made matters worse initially.

What happened was that people gradually got used to the fact that refueling took ~1 hour of waiting in line and adapted. Then when demand slacked the wait got shorter.

Supply and demand have to reach equilibrium for the lines to disappear and the lines are what is causing demand to spike.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

This is getting fully scary to me. I don't know what I'm prepping for now. It's not just food and necessities to get me through a year's event anymore. It appears like it's going to start being  everything. I'm literally planning to collect hand-me-down laptops in case those chips that are in short supply cause prices to skyrocket past my ability to buy and my Kindle's break. And now I have to stuff another year supply of toilet paper into this tiny place? What else, just to be on the safe side. (she said rhetorically) There's such a huge domino effect going on worldwide.

It's silly I know but I've started remembering when it was just a deadly disease. In the olden days of a year ago? Life was much simpler then. Just stay alive.

The #2 post in the original ZombieSquad thread about the mysterious SARS-like respiratory illness in Wuhan:

@Woodsghost, Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:38 pm

People like to talk about wars and such. This is the type of stuff I think can actually cause a world wide problem.

Even that prophetic statement is becoming an understatement.

[RoneKiln]

This is getting fully scary to me. I don't know what I'm prepping for now. It's not just food and necessities to get me through a year's event anymore. It appears like it's going to start being  everything. I'm literally planning to collect hand-me-down laptops in case those chips that are in short supply cause prices to skyrocket past my ability to buy and my Kindle's break. And now I have to stuff another year supply of toilet paper into this tiny place? What else, just to be on the safe side. (she said rhetorically) There's such a huge domino effect going on worldwide.

It's silly I know but I've started remembering when it was just a deadly disease. In the olden days of a year ago? Life was much simpler then. Just stay alive.

The #2 post in the original ZombieSquad thread about the mysterious SARS-like respiratory illness in Wuhan:

@Woodsghost, Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:38 pm

People like to talk about wars and such. This is the type of stuff I think can actually cause a world wide problem.

Even that prophetic statement is becoming an understatement.

Get outside and do something fun you've not done in forever.

It's easy for prepping to drift towards hoarding or paranoia. There may be times it's right to be paranoid and hoard stuff. But think about how perfect the last two years has been for breeding anxiety.

Do you really believe TP will vanish from stores for a whole year? Or do you think there will be intermittent periods it's hard to find? If you think it will be intermittent periods, you only need to stock enough to float through those periods. If you decide you do need to stock a years worth, don't do it from a place of anxiety. Get outside and enjoy life. Unwind and be healthy. Then decide from a place of calm what to stock and how much.

A spare laptop makes sense. Does a collection of them make sense?

I expanded my store of first aid supplies. That's it. I've also started Christmas shopping real early. I don't need more stuff, but I like giving people stuff late in December.

Crud. I just bought a truck and I need to equip it with a full kit equal to my car. Guess I do need some more stuff.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

Thanks, @RoneKiln.

[Blast]

My business partner went to Best Buy today to look at fridges and noticed the store only had a few, top end computers. Nothing entry or mid-level. He asked the store manager about it and was told the computer pipeline is empty. They didn't know when they'd get more.
-Blast, planting beans!

[woodsghost]

This is getting fully scary to me. I don't know what I'm prepping for now. It's not just food and necessities to get me through a year's event anymore. It appears like it's going to start being  everything. I'm literally planning to collect hand-me-down laptops in case those chips that are in short supply cause prices to skyrocket past my ability to buy and my Kindle's break. And now I have to stuff another year supply of toilet paper into this tiny place? What else, just to be on the safe side. (she said rhetorically) There's such a huge domino effect going on worldwide.

It's silly I know but I've started remembering when it was just a deadly disease. In the olden days of a year ago? Life was much simpler then. Just stay alive.

The #2 post in the original ZombieSquad thread about the mysterious SARS-like respiratory illness in Wuhan:

@Woodsghost, Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:38 pm

People like to talk about wars and such. This is the type of stuff I think can actually cause a world wide problem.

Even that prophetic statement is becoming an understatement.

In short, one has to become their own supply chain. But one cannot fully do that. The big Prepper delima. So what to do?

Pick a skill, or a few, get the tools to perform that skill  and practice practice practice. Have a skill people will always need and which can be performed in very low tech situations.

Distilling alcohol for personal or professional use?
Herbalism?
Small electronics repair?
Growing tomatoes in an apartment?
Small machine repair?
Welding?

Getting up in a tizzy and panicking is not useful.
Hoarding stuff is ok until one runs out of hoarded supplies. Then what? What is the resupply plan?

If skilled, one can resupply from those around you. If you know what to do with lightbulbs when they die, people will supply you with dead lightbulbs. Not for free of course, but that becomes part of your cost for repairing dead lightbulbs (give me enough currency that I can both feed myself and buy more raw products for repair).

Then we also prepare to live without. Without kindles, medications, foods, heat, air conditioning, whatever might be in short- or non- supply.

Prepping is not about "skipping out on being affected." Prepping is about "buying time and space to have a slower or more optimal transition to ongoing events."

So there are supply shortages. That sucks. They will probably get worse. So what do we do?

I'm trying to become less reliant on the current supply system. No one will ever totally escape, but we can lessen how hard the impact is on our lives. Survivors will adapt to the new and changing conditions and keep adapting. They won't be unaffected, they will adapt and roll with things as best they can.

I'm doing my best but I'm sure I'll be wrong in all sorts of areas. But the key is to keep adapting and keep rolling.

Among other things, I'm learning to identify plants again and use them for medicine. I'm learning to care for animals and raise them for food. I'm learning about gardening again. Most of my gardens have failed, but that just means I have more learning to do. I'm learning about food preservation.

I'm also getting out more with my family and building fun memories.

[Raptor]

OK everyone take a deep breath...not everything every where is going to disappear. That said yes indeed we will see shortages and most likely of things that we do not expect.

I am seeing a bunch things that out of stock.
For instance I needed a simple replacement CCTV camera. I could find them cheap or not in stock...not both.

I did run across refubished intel i-5 laptops (16 gb & 552 SSD) at a decent (not great) price. That is what we will likely see more of refurbished and re-purposed gear for sale. 

However, here is what a good prepper needs to do:
Sit down and figure out what is truly needed. What is not. Concentrate your efforts on that which you truly need.

For example if you buy a lb of coffee a week then it makes sense to buy more coffee since it has a long shelf life.

Obviously that will not work with some items. It will work ok for other items.

The real thing to do is to try to build an alternate supply network for needed goods and services. Be prepared to trade some items for the ability to obtain other items.

Things produced in the US/Mexico/Canada will be easier to source than those produced in the PRC...(yeah I know that ain't much). However food like rice, potatoes, beef, pork many fruits and veggies are still grown in the US. Focus on your needs and figure out who and where they are made.   

[flybynight]

Ever, you've been on top of food and sundries preps for almost two years now.  Re stock as you use and when you find good prices. As far as the technology items. I notice Amazon now has payment plans for kindles with no fees or interest.

[MPMalloy]

Ever, you've been on top of food and sundries preps for almost two years now.  Re stock as you use and when you find good prices. As far as the technology items. I notice Amazon now has payment plans for kindles with no fees or interest.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is really taking off.

[Raptor]

Ever, you've been on top of food and sundries preps for almost two years now.  Re stock as you use and when you find good prices. As far as the technology items. I notice Amazon now has payment plans for kindles with no fees or interest.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is really taking off.

BNPL is a good strategy as long as it is interest free.

BTW the sales you see on Kindles and similar items is the same reason Gillette gave away the razors but sold the razor blades. The Kindle is not the product but rather the gateway to sell more products... it is in effect the razor. 

[PistolPete]

My sweetie went to the shops today and discovered that Walmart was entirely out of cat litter.  Now that is a shortage I didn't expect.  Time to eat the cats!   

But from talking to a friend who works a job supporting the ports in Cali, be prepared for shortages to get worse and continue well into next year.  As well, if we see more firing from vaccine mandates that's going to create longer waits in the service industry and more shortages of every day products.  This is going to create a market opportunity for people who fix things, like computers, phones, washing machines, freezers, etc.  If you are concerned about the line of work you are in now, it could be a nice time to move to something like that. 

[Raptor]

My sweetie went to the shops today and discovered that Walmart was entirely out of cat litter.  Now that is a shortage I didn't expect.   

I have noticed kitty litter has been in short supply at WM for quite some time. I would note that much (Purina/ Nestles & Freshstep/Clorox) but not all of the kitty litter is produced in the US (in Wyoming & Montana). I suspect that that since it is a heavy & low profit margin item, it's restock priority is being bumped. I can source it elsewhere, sometimes at a better price.

Please do not eat the cats.

But from talking to a friend who works a job supporting the ports in Cali, be prepared for shortages to get worse and continue well into next year.  As well, if we see more firing from vaccine mandates that's going to create longer waits in the service industry and more shortages of every day products.  This is going to create a market opportunity for people who fix things, like computers, phones, washing machines, freezers, etc.  If you are concerned about the line of work you are in now, it could be a nice time to move to something like that. 

This excellent advice. Anyone with basic or above carpentry skills is in great demand in my area to put up fences and fix roofs.

[MPMalloy]

My sweetie went to the shops today and discovered that Walmart was entirely out of cat litter.  Now that is a shortage I didn't expect.   

I have noticed kitty litter has been in short supply at WM for quite some time. I would note that much (Purina/ Nestles & Freshstep/Clorox) but not all of the kitty litter is produced in the US (in Wyoming & Montana). I suspect that that since it is a heavy & low profit margin item, it's restock priority is being bumped. I can source it elsewhere, sometimes at a better price.

Please do not eat the cats.

But from talking to a friend who works a job supporting the ports in Cali, be prepared for shortages to get worse and continue well into next year.  As well, if we see more firing from vaccine mandates that's going to create longer waits in the service industry and more shortages of every day products.  This is going to create a market opportunity for people who fix things, like computers, phones, washing machines, freezers, etc.  If you are concerned about the line of work you are in now, it could be a nice time to move to something like that.

This excellent advice. Anyone with basic or above carpentry skills is in great demand in my area to put up fences and fix roofs.

Jobs that make or repair things usually do well; although one may not imply skill at the other.

[Lambykins]

My sweetie went to the shops today and discovered that Walmart was entirely out of cat litter.  Now that is a shortage I didn't expect.   

I have noticed kitty litter has been in short supply at WM for quite some time. I would note that much (Purina/ Nestles & Freshstep/Clorox) but not all of the kitty litter is produced in the US (in Wyoming & Montana). I suspect that that since it is a heavy & low profit margin item, it's restock priority is being bumped. I can source it elsewhere, sometimes at a better price.

Please do not eat the cats.

Re: Kitty Litter

Alternatives
1) Sawdust/wood chips
2) Pellets for wood stove (I use this all the time, much cheaper, smells better and my cat likes it)
3) Play sand
4) Dry leaves shredded up a bit
5) Newspaper shredded up
6) Dry pine needles

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

Ever, you've been on top of food and sundries preps for almost two years now.  Re stock as you use and when you find good prices. As far as the technology items. I notice Amazon now has payment plans for kindles with no fees or interest.

Good councel.

Am also paying attention to my necessary items I use that are made elsewhere.

Like:
My mattress -> air mattress - > decades' preference -> Wal-Mart Ozark Trail made in Vietnam -> $8-$9 -> generally lasts 3-6 years.  I just bought three backups. Takes up almost no appreciable space.

My WaterPic. Which I believe the parts may be made here but assembled in PRC. ? ? So I bought a backup.

Just bought a third hand low quality laptop ->$10. It's probably worth at least $12, but it is a slim no space taking backup. Even if it only lasts for $10 worth of time if or when needed, it comforts me.

Today my focus was OTC meds, olive oil, & canola oil stock replacements.

Am finishing off the last of my thumbnail size freezer contents. When done I'll start batches of various flavors of scrambled eggs until it's filled for cold/flu/covid winter season. The half size ziplock containers stack perfectly, 4-5 eggs a container, enough containers & space for aprx 300+ frozen eggs.

I purposely walked my small Dillons to see what I could see regarding stock. Some sparse and empty places... especially Kroger brand. What's up with that I wonder? But nothing looking too off. Except water. They have been short or extremely low on water for at least a couple of months now. Do the containers come from out of country or something? Anyway, it's odd.

The store had lots of little temporary notices under many items stating the price was fixed (or something like that), making me wonder if when that particular stock was gone the price was going to make a jump.

Another thing that struck me was the increased number of shoppers wearing masks. And the children.  Teens -> no. Children -> yes.

👵

[flybynight]

Am finishing off the last of my thumbnail size freezer contents. When done I'll start batches of various flavors of scrambled eggs until it's filled for cold/flu/covid winter season. The half size ziplock containers stack perfectly, 4-5 eggs a container, enough containers & space for aprx 300+ frozen eggs.

You would make Sissy proud

I purposely walked my small Dillons to see what I could see regarding stock. Some sparse and empty places... especially Kroger brand. What's up with that I wonder? But nothing looking too off. Except water. They have been short or extremely low on water for at least a couple of months now. Do the containers come from out of country or something? Anyway, it's odd.

From what I've heard , there is a shortage of plastic bottles. So  they might be made out side the country.
  As far as the Kroger brands in general. some of those items are made by other brand name companies . As an example  , if Kroger potato chips are made at the Frito Lay plant and Frito Lay is having production problems  just getting their own brand out. Who do you think is going to get shunted aside ?

The store had lots of little temporary notices under many items stating the price was fixed (or something like that), making me wonder if when that particular stock was gone the price was going to make a jump.

Probably . It's hard not to wax political over how the price of everything has jumped in the last 10 months, But this is just Krogers P R attempt to reflect  how they are trying to hold the line on prices  for their shoppers in these trying  times we find ourselves in.

[MPMalloy]

The store had lots of little temporary notices under many items stating the price was fixed (or something like that), making me wonder if when that particular stock was gone the price was going to make a jump.

Probably . It's hard not to wax political over how the price of everything has jumped in the last 10 months, But this is just Krogers P R attempt to reflect  how they are trying to hold the line on prices  for their shoppers in these trying  times we find ourselves in.

The "price is fixed" is not clear to me.  I'm thinking this is *NOT* that one thing....

[flybynight]

alot of grocery items have recently taken a giant leap up in price. An example two weeks  ago I noticed Hungry man tv dinners @ $5.35 ea. . Last week it was back on sale  @ $3.49  which is still about a buck more than sale price  a few months ago.
Everything seems to be rising in price and whether it's because of Covid fears and hoarding, supply chain issues , Presidential policy or moonbeams is moot at the checkstand.

  One's meal planning needs to be more flexible based on what you find at the store

 

[MPMalloy]

One's meal planning needs to be more flexible based on what you find at the store

I hear my train a comin'