Hamas launches surprise attack on Israel

[Raptor]

Israel has said they will permit humanitarian aid Through Egypt. That said Egypt said that they will not permit refugees. Not sure how that will work...I suspect rather badly is the answer.

  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/17/israel-hamas-war-live-anger-after-israeli-strike-kills-500-in-hospital

Egypt is the only country that borders Gaza besides Israel, but Sisi said no Palestinians will be allowed through the heavily fortified and locked-down border crossing. He claimed his own population would angrily protest against moving Palestinians into Egyptian Sinai.
"If it came to it, I could call on the Egyptian people to come out and express their rejection of this proposal, and you would see millions of Egyptians," he threatened.
Sisi also feared a heavy Palestinian presence could turn Sinai into a base for terrorist attacks against Israel, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement for other nations to accept Palestinian refugees.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2023/10/18/sisi-instead-of-letting-palestinian-refugees-into-egypt-lets-park-them-in-the-desert/

There are obviously two versions of the hospital strike being pushed for political reasons. I honestly doubt at this point anyone knows the whole truth.

3rd party sources have been provided with data that shows the explosion was a defective rocket launched not by Hamas but rather a smaller and "more radical" (not sure what that term means). That said at this point I suspect the truth is irrelevant to the supporters of each side.

Video, radar, maps, media coverage of the impact cite, and an intercepted call between two Hamas operatives all suggest that a Palestinian group's rocket, launched near the hospital, misfired and hit the parking lot, causing a fire and apparent casualties.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2023/10/18/evidence-palestinian-terrorists-not-israel-hit-hospital-in-gaza/

The data presented above does seem in line with the known capabilities of Israel. This type of data would be available to commonly deployed counter battery artillery radars and the Israeli Iron Dome systems. 

That said I am in no position to opine either way and do not opine upon the substance of either claim.

What is clear is that this matter has resulting in an escalation of violence in various cities directed at Israel and Jews in general. The political rhetoric is being used even in the US for personal agendas.

https://news.yahoo.com/protesters-mideast-vent-fury-gaza-144643821.html

[Uomo Senza Nome]

I'm reserving judgment about who's to blame for the hospital explosion in Gaza.  I've also read about it being an errant Hamas rocket, but I could see it just as easily being a targeting mistake by the Israelis.  We may never get a definitive answer, but I keep coming back to what Flybynight said: in war, innocents will die.  Make no mistake, this is a full-scale war. 

It appears to be a Hamas rocket. Nobody in the Arab world gives a shit. They all say Israel is lying and they need to die.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

The White House has been forced to delete a photo of President Joe Biden meeting U.S. special forces in Israel - which showed their faces and could have revealed their identities.

It was already known that a small group of U.S. special forces are in Israel advising on how to potentially rescue scores of hostages, including Americans, held by terror group Hamas in Gaza.

Their actual role their is a matter of speculation but outing them was a particularly bad blunder.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12651089/White-House-apologizes-publishing-photo-showing-faces-Special-Forces-met-Biden-Israel-glaring-national-security-blunder.html

[Uomo Senza Nome]

A US AB Destroyer intercepted missiles bound for Israel.  The US Navy will likely be targeted next.

US Navy destroyer shoots down missiles potentially headed toward Israel: Pentagon (msn.com)

[majorhavoc]

Two very different takes on the potential for this conflict to expand into a regional, if not world war.  The Warographics piece is twice as long, but does cite sources and has a very different take on the stakes for Syria and Iran.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OagYlYna75Y


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sukrBL2C8yo

Peter Zeihan does zero in on a detail that I've been paying attention to: everyone's talking about the deployment of the carriers USS Gerald R. Ford and Dwight D. Eisenhower to the region as a deterrent to other potentially nations.  Much less is being said about the presence of the USS Bataan, Mesa Verde and Carter Hall in the eastern Mediterranean.  Together they provide a platform to support Marine Expeditionary and Special Forces operations.  They are likely on station in case a decision is made to attempt to extract hostages being held in Gaza.  To undertake such an operation would make Mogadishu look like a walk in the park. 

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Cracks are appearing in the US supply lines.

Bad news for Ukraine - USA in shocking turn around (msn.com)

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Israel has been reported deploying it's (asserted yet unproven, Nuclear ICBM capable) submarines of which it has nine. The subs can fill other roles but the speculation is that they would be a response strike weapon to a nuclear strike from Iran or some other nation state.

Israel is deploying submarines. Something big is about to happen (msn.com) 

The front with Lebanon is now considered active and cities on the border are being evacuated. The concern now is a third front on the West Bank opening up heavily supported by regional players.

[majorhavoc]

Topic moved to Disasters in Current Events. 

https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?topic=1768.0

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Internet has been severed to Gaza. As if things weren't bad enough now they can't watch cat videos, donkey porn and post lies and propaganda to the world. The IDF has bombed all of the major nodes that connected out.

Oil has run up to $90 a barrel and the Federal government has depleted the SPR. Iran is calling for an oil embargo against Israel. If regional powers agree the US will end up sipping tankers of fuel to the Middle East, which makes no sense.

I'm not going to dive into the politics of it but a Detroit Synagogue leader was stabbed to death on Saturday. Lots of finger pointing and politics at the link.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/rashida-tlaib-under-fire-after-detroit-synagogue-leader-s-slaying/ar-AA1iDc39?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=ac6f25284559459bb7250c4d55ee91c8&ei=52

[Raptor]

With everything going on the thought of the US sending tankers of fuel to Israel actually does not seem unreasonable.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

US now has BOG in the "eastern Mediterranean at an undisclosed location". A THAAD Radar and Missile System was deployed there along with the USS Eisenhower in the region bringing total Carriers to two.  The US has seven THAAD systems. One is currently deployed in Poland and two are always up in the US (Hawaii and somewhere else). 

Also deployed was an additional PATRIOT Battalion. Not sure if it is going to AL Asad to join the other battalion and Avenger Units there or somewhere else. Al Asad is getting pounded by rockets on the regular now.

US Deploys THAAD System, Strike Group Amid 'Recent Escalations' by Iran (msn.com)

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Wow, busy day in associated politics. Obviously not going to post any of that here.

Part of the associated attacks are near continuous attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria from militia backed by Iran.

It appears as though the Gaza clearing operations were delayed another day or so to give Hamas more time to prepare.

[Raptor]

It appears as though the Gaza clearing operations were delayed another day or so to give Hamas more time to pprepare.

IMO the extra time due to the delay will not make much difference. Hamas has shown that this attack was not amateur hour. They clearly put 2+ years of planning into this attack and the inevitable (desired?) massive IDF retaliation. They will likely have additional creative unpleasantness in store for the IDF regardless of timing.

The IDF response will be massive and a PR nightmare for Israel.

That said I certainly have no sympathy for Hamas...let the chips fall where they may.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

It appears as though the Gaza clearing operations were delayed another day or so to give Hamas more time to pprepare.

IMO the extra time due to the delay will not make much difference. Hamas has shown that this attack was not amateur hour. They clearly put 2+ years of planning into this attack and the inevitable (desired?) massive IDF retaliation.

The IDF response will be massive and a PR nightmare for Israel.

That said I certainly have no sympathy for Hamas...let the chips fall where they may.

My comment was somewhat sarcastic. This attack was intended to provoke the response that they are getting. However; this might be a case of Israel ripping the band-aid off for good. I believe their intention is to go in and kill and destroy everything that looks like a threat. They will likely go even further than that.

Hamas is planning on the world coming to save them. That second part I am not so sure about. Israel tried the peace process and it was sabotaged. Once they get fully spun up most of the neighbors are not going to want to poke that bear. That is why the politics at play here are fascinating. Everyone is kind of getting laid bare.

[majorhavoc]

Listening to the radio this morning, a Pentagon official suggested Israel may be hastily giving its reservists remedial training on urban combat, and that may at least partially explain the delay in starting the invasion.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Listening to the radio this morning, a Pentagon official suggested Israel may be hastily giving its reservists remedial training on urban combat, and that may at least partially explain the delay in starting the invasion.

Urban combat is the hardest and it is impossible to be good at it.

[MacWa77ace]

Yeah, I like the farther away tactics in urban warfare.

[Raptor]

Listening to the radio this morning, a Pentagon official suggested Israel may be hastily giving its reservists remedial training on urban combat, and that may at least partially explain the delay in starting the invasion.

Urban combat is the hardest and it is impossible to be good at it.

If there is one thing history has taught us; urban warfare is the great equalizer between disparate forces in combat. Small and determined units (especially those who are willing to be suicide squads) can turn a Division into a Battalion in no time if allowed to do so.   

[echo83]

It appears as though the Gaza clearing operations were delayed another day or so to give Hamas more time to pprepare.

IMO the extra time due to the delay will not make much difference. Hamas has shown that this attack was not amateur hour. They clearly put 2+ years of planning into this attack and the inevitable (desired?) massive IDF retaliation.

The IDF response will be massive and a PR nightmare for Israel.

That said I certainly have no sympathy for Hamas...let the chips fall where they may.

My comment was somewhat sarcastic. This attack was intended to provoke the response that they are getting. However; this might be a case of Israel ripping the band-aid off for good. I believe their intention is to go in and kill and destroy everything that looks like a threat. They will likely go even further than that.

Hamas is planning on the world coming to save them. That second part I am not so sure about. Israel tried the peace process and it was sabotaged. Once they get fully spun up most of the neighbors are not going to want to poke that bear. That is why the politics at play here are fascinating. Everyone is kind of getting laid bare.

Agreed. The region seems long overdue for a "hard reboot." I read an interesting, but brief editorial analysis of what lies ahead, and--spoiler alert--it will be grim. 

https://www.bdtonline.com/mowing-the-grass-didnt-work-what-israel-will-have-to-do-in-gaza/article_f4a6f6da-71f4-11ee-9951-7f185c8f940d.html

The "mowing the grass" strategy sounds a bit like the "door knocking" strategy the IDF has employed to reduce civilian casualties in the past: a text message alert to residents in the area, followed by a small cement bomb through the roof, (the door knock) followed by a full-on precision air strike on a building.

Whether or not the higher casualties are a result of more frequent airstrikes is debatable. What seems certain is that niceties like containment and door knocking will soon become a thing of the past. 

I'm no expert, but I think the gloves are going to come off. 

[Uomo Senza Nome]

IDF has started their incursion into Gaza.

IDF launches large incursion into Gaza overnight | Watch (msn.com)