Hamas launches surprise attack on Israel

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Iran now loosely claims to have some canned sunshine. Seems unlikely it was tested as that would have been noticed by all the more powerful nations states right away. Seems more likely the Iranian congressman is talking out of both sides of his mouth.

Yemen's Houthi rebels claim 2 attacks in Gulf of Aden as Iran official renews nuclear bomb threats (msn.com)
Iran allegedly has nuclear bombs, Iranian lawmaker claims: Report (americanmilitarynews.com)
 
It has been speculated for some time that they have the bomb ready to go.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/explainer-how-close-is-iran-having-nuclear-weapons-2024-04-18/

Be that as it is, when the old nuclear deal was penned it was believed that it would take Iran 10 years to develop the bomb under that deal. It has been ten years, so time is up.

[NT2C]

Iran now loosely claims to have some canned sunshine. Seems unlikely it was tested as that would have been noticed by all the more powerful nations states right away. Seems more likely the Iranian congressman is talking out of both sides of his mouth.

Yemen's Houthi rebels claim 2 attacks in Gulf of Aden as Iran official renews nuclear bomb threats (msn.com)
Iran allegedly has nuclear bombs, Iranian lawmaker claims: Report (americanmilitarynews.com)
 
It has been speculated for some time that they have the bomb ready to go.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/explainer-how-close-is-iran-having-nuclear-weapons-2024-04-18/

Be that as it is, when the old nuclear deal was penned it was believed that it would take Iran 10 years to develop the bomb under that deal. It has been ten years, so time is up.

Sure would be a shame if they accidentally set it off while transporting it. Just saying...

[Z.O.R.G.]

What was their success rate on all the drone & missile strikes?  They tested the design of those before using them.  What's the likelihood of an untested nuke working the first time given their history?  Now if someone (say N. Korea) "assisted" with development and build of the device(s), it's probably a different story. 

[majorhavoc]

Now if someone (say N. Korea) "assisted" with development and build of the device(s), it's probably a different story.

I believe that was the arrangement between Pakistan and North Korea.  Pakistan got NK's missile technology in exchange for their expertise in fission weapons.  

Not exactly the kind of international cooperation one hopes for ... 

[Raptor]

Not exactly the kind of international cooperation one hopes for ...

Well stated!

[Raptor]

Sure would be a shame if they accidentally set it off while transporting it. Just saying.

With any luck the folks who handled the logistics for a certain shipment of pagers and walkie talkies will be in charge of logistics for this transport. 

[DarkAxel]

Things are getting hairy internationally again. Israel launched strikes against nuclear and military targets in Iran

The live feed on BBC is where I'm seeing most of the stuff below:

An Israeli official claims Iran has enough enriched uranium to make bombs, and started trying to build one months ago. Israel says that the strikes will continue as long as it takes to dismantle Iran's ability to make a bomb. Israel has also declared a state of emergency and began preparations against an Iranian counter-attack.

The US State Department denies any US involvement and claims Israel took unilateral action.

The evacuation of the US embassy in Iraq and military families from the wider Middle East seems to indicate the US knew something was up.

Israel targeted nuclear scientists along with the main enrichment plant at Natanz

Iran is claiming civilian deaths including children. The Iran Revolutionary Guard will be looking for a new chief, as Israel took out their leader. Of course, their Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is swearing vengeance.

Iran had warned it would retaliate against US military forces if Israel attacked during the ongoing nuclear talks with the US. We'll see if that happens.

[NT2C]

ADMIN HAT ON

We can discuss this here so long as we keep things factual and non-political. You folks know the drill, use of soapboxes is highly discouraged.

Admin hat off

[Raptor]

The Israeli attack is significant. But considering Iran launched drone and missle attacks on Israel earlier this year, I am not surprised.

Iran's previous attack on Israel followed by vows of further violence...well you do not have to be a psychic to have seen this coming.

That said the ferocity of the current strike is significant. This can easily escalate. If you have any plans to travel to the middle east this summer you may want to consider alternatives.

[DarkAxel]

Well, at least Armageddon didn't kick off while I was asleep or at the gym.

Iran has responded with drones and missiles, seems like the missile attacks are still ongoing.

Israel struck nuclear labs and the Uranium Conversion Facility in Isfahan.

Here are the people who are confirmed to have been killed in the strikes according to Iranian state media:

• Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
• Gholamali Rashid, the commander of Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters
• Fereydoon Abbasi, nuclear scientist and former head Iran's Atomic Energy Organization
• Mohammad Mahdi Tehranchi, another nuclear scientist involved in Iran's nuclear weapons program
• Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran's armed forces
• Abdolhamid Minouchehr, Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, Amirhossein Feqhi, and another scientist with the surname Motallebizadeh (No first name as of yet), nuclear scientists at Tehran's Shahid Beheshti University.

I will refrain from discussing nations and politicians wrt where they stand on the attacks, as this isn't the right forum for that.Looks like the Houthis have launched a missile at Israel too.

[Raptor]

Israel has confirmed hits by Iranian missiles, but considering Israel is also masterful at disinformation. These hits may or may not be the the targets they claim. They may simply be missle sumps.

In any event the Israeli strike was masteful; it was obviously well planed. The follow up airstrikes indicate that Israel is not playing an game of tit for tat but plans to inflict serious damage on Iran's ability to project power.

If you look at flightaware (at least  last night) ther was not a single airliner flying over Iran. Clearly the word is out stay away from the area.

[majorhavoc]

I was flying to Dubrovnik on Thursday and there were multiple announcements at Logan and Munich about delayed or canceled lights bound for Tel Aviv. That would have been right before or perhaps in the early hours of this major escalation.

[Lambykins]

Watched some live cams earlier today.
The *Iron Dome* is impressive.
One shot showed a dozen or so missiles coming in from Iran...all got neutralized by Israel.
Then I saw a live feed from Iran...oof! Like 6 or 7 missiles from Israel...all hit. Hit a oil refinery and, yeah, pretty big boom and lots of flames.
Commentary stated that Iran has a 2% effective hit rate. Israel's missiles currently having around a 90% effective hit rate.
Ouch.
Anybody got any clues on quantity of missiles stockpiled by both countries? I mean, how long can Iran keep this up with such abysmal results?

[DarkAxel]

Watched some live cams earlier today.
The *Iron Dome* is impressive.
One shot showed a dozen or so missiles coming in from Iran...all got neutralized by Israel.
Then I saw a live feed from Iran...oof! Like 6 or 7 missiles from Israel...all hit. Hit a oil refinery and, yeah, pretty big boom and lots of flames.
Commentary stated that Iran has a 2% effective hit rate. Israel's missiles currently having around a 90% effective hit rate.
Ouch.
Anybody got any clues on quantity of missiles stockpiled by both countries? I mean, how long can Iran keep this up with such abysmal results?

No idea about stockpiles, but I've seen several reports that Mossad infiltration teams targeted ballistic missile bases and storage depots along with air defense missile systems with drones, similar to the Ukrainian attack on Russian bomber bases. 

This kind of drone warfare scares me. 

[Raptor]

The Blinkov youtube channel did an analysis of the strike and opinined about Iran's sustainability.

I am no expert but I suspect Iran will continue the attacks regardless of effectiveness to save face.

[NT2C]

The Blinkov youtube channel did an analysis of the strike and opinined about Iran's sustainability.

I am no expert but I suspect Iran will continue the attacks regardless of effectiveness to save face prevent a coup.

FTFY

[DarkAxel]

U.S. strikes Iranian nuclear sites, Trump says

Don't want to argue the right or wrong of it, but keep your heads on a swivel because I think life just got real interesting. If you have friends or family deployed to the CENTCOM area, sending good vibes your way.

[Lambykins]

U.S. strikes Iranian nuclear sites, Trump says

Don't want to argue the right or wrong of it, but keep your heads on a swivel because I think life just got real interesting. If you have friends or family deployed to the CENTCOM area, sending good vibes your way.

Watching various live news feeds.
Haven't heard anything about Chinese or Russian response, or European opinion.

[Lambykins]

Currently watching live feed from Tel Aviv, Iran is shooting what they have left, I guess. Iron Dome is mostly doing it's job. Once in a while you'll see one slip by.

[DarkAxel]

It seems like the Iranian position has degraded to the point where their retaliation options are limited. It doesn't help them that Israel is targeting Iran's ballistic missile batteries, factories, and storage sites, and Israel has dismantled most of Iran's proxy forces as well. I think the only real proxies they have left are the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq. I'm actually surprised that Iran hasn't loosened their leash already.

The only real way Iran has to retaliate would be to try to close the Strait of Hormuz with Anti-ship missiles and mines, and Iran got a major naval spanking last time they tried that tactic during the Iran-Iraq War back in the '80s. 

There have been online rumors about Iranian sleeper cells in the US being activated, but in this modern info environment there's a good chance it's just propaganda or misinformation. Time will tell.