Stupid groundhog

flybynight · February 21, 2023, 10:19:29 AM

If you don't want to read through all the science. Scroll to the bottom for likely impacts. Buckle in for a wild ride.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warming-main-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-forecast-fa/

NT2C · February 21, 2023, 10:25:53 AM

Quote from: flybynight on February 21, 2023, 10:19:29 AMIf you don't want to read through all the science. Scroll to the bottom for likely impacts. Buckle in for a wild ride.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warming-main-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-forecast-fa/

Oh, look at that! It's going to veer right around Virginia.

NT2C · February 21, 2023, 10:39:08 AM

majorhavoc · February 21, 2023, 06:53:54 PM

Well, clearly a breaking Rossby Wave is going to collapse the stratospheric Polar Vortex. Any sixth grader will tell you that. I just never thought I'd see one in my lifetime. What I find interesting is that it's presently coinciding with zonal wind reversal in the troposphere. I mean, I'm no Dr. Amy Butler but ECMWF modeling would never predict the MSLP anomaly we're seeing now. Yet, there it is.

And as we all learned in kindergarten, that can only lead to stupidly high geopotential high anomalies that would absolutely obliterate the normal winter patterning of the jet stream. I mean, d'uh! But I'm having a hard time believing the GFS Northern Annular Mode Index (which we all know is the freaking holy grail for tracking Sudden Stratospheric Warming effects) could possibly be declining as precipitously as the article suggests. Granted if it were true, then why, we'd be looking at a near-catastrophic SSW event.

But until we see any kind of corroboration in GEFS modelling, I'm sure this is nothing but hype. I plan on rocking shorts and a t-shirt in early March so I can get a headstart on my tan!

Anianna · February 21, 2023, 06:58:02 PM

*blink*

*blink*

Wut?

NT2C · February 21, 2023, 07:10:08 PM

Quote from: Anianna on February 21, 2023, 06:58:02 PM*blink*

*blink*

Wut?

He said it'll be in the 80s for us on Thursday, my wife's birthday. My wife is not happy about it. 50 is her upper limit.

flybynight · February 21, 2023, 07:10:43 PM

Quote from: majorhavoc on February 21, 2023, 06:53:54 PMWell, clearly a breaking Rossby Wave is going to collapse the stratospheric Polar Vortex. Any sixth grader will tell you that. I just never thought I'd see one in my lifetime. What I find interesting is that it's presently coinciding with zonal wind reversal in the troposphere. I mean, I'm no Dr. Amy Butler but ECMWF modeling would never predict the MSLP anomaly we're seeing now. Yet, there it is.

And as we all learned in kindergarten, that can only lead to stupidly high geopotential high anomalies that would absolutely obliterate the normal winter patterning of the jet stream. I mean, d'uh! But I'm having a hard time believing the GFS Northern Annular Mode Index (which we all know is the freaking holy grail for tracking Sudden Stratospheric Warming effects) could possibly be declining as precipitously as the article suggests. Granted if it were true, then why, we'd be looking at a near-catastrophic SSW event.

But until we see any kind of corroboration in GEFS modelling, I'm sure this is nothing but hype. I plan on rocking shorts and a t-shirt in early March so I can get a headstart on my tan!

Your puissance is compelling

I belaud you

majorhavoc · February 21, 2023, 07:36:08 PM

For the record, I have absolutely no clue what I just said. But when NT2C links to a freaking doctoral dissertation, I'm either going to understand it (highly unlikely) or compensate for my ignorance by making a joke out of it. I choose the latter.

ETA: Whatever the hell the article is saying, I think it's something bad ...

https://youtu.be/hECiEfcVZBc?t=30