Chinese Spy Balloon/"Civilian Airship"/UFO Shootdowns

[majorhavoc]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/world/asia/china-spy-balloon.html

On the one hand, I'm sure the Chinese have far better and more discrete methods of spying on the US mainland (ie satellites).  On the other hand, apparently the Chinese have a bit of a history of using these and in any event, I can't think of a much better way to gauge the our military's ability to detect and track vehicles entering US airspace.  Or, you know, any other airspace we might happen to wish to monitor <ahem ... cough! ... Taiwan>.  And if the exercise involves gathering a bit of useful intelligence, well, that's just icing on the cake.

UFoZS membership is a geographically diverse community and this thing can't hang out over Montana forever.  I would love to see members reporting sightings over the next several days.  And if any of us have a decent telephoto lens equipped camera and a sturdy tripod, it would be so cool to post pictures taken by eagle eyed UFoZS members. 

Just sayin'.



Note that the map below assumes the balloon is incapable of independent maneuvering.  I believe it's been established that it can, in fact be controlled somewhat (presumably by ascending/descending to take advantage of desired wind currents).

 

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

I'm wondering what's stopping someone with a precision long range rifle from taking a shot at this thing and knocking it down.

[echo83]

I'd be interested to see where this thing ends up, and what we actually learn about it. 

As usual, though, I'm annoyed by the "ready, fire, aim" coverage. Cue the "What We Know (And Don't Know) about X," headlines. 

First we were unaware, then we had a chance to take it down and didn't, then we decided it wasn't a threat, then the DOD was tracking it but wouldn't make the location public, and then we decided that debris from a takedown might harm people on the ground.

My brother in North Carolina texted me 10 seconds ago and said police in Gastonia, NC are telling people not to try to shoot it down. Seriously.

I know, I know, satellites fly over us every day, and the folks who fly them aren't doing so to give us weather on the 10s. But this is a balloon. In our airspace. You're telling me the same folks who intercept Tu 95 Bears so often that it doesn't make the news anymore don't have a plan for a balloon?

[EBuff75]

I'm wondering what's stopping someone with a precision long range rifle from taking a shot at this thing and knocking it down.

80,000 - 120,000 ft altitude. 

[majorhavoc]

I'm wondering what's stopping someone with a precision long range rifle from taking a shot at this thing and knocking it down.

80,000 - 120,000 ft altitude. 

Well if the Australian Navy can try shooting down the planet Venus I suppose we could try our luck with this balloon. 

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

I'm wondering what's stopping someone with a precision long range rifle from taking a shot at this thing and knocking it down.

80,000 - 120,000 ft altitude. 

Yeah, I'd say that's a good bit further than most precision long range rifles can shoot.

[Anianna]

It's not that we don't have the capability to shoot it down, it's that it poses a greater threat in freefall than it does just wandering about our airspace.  It's not likely to see anything of significance that its operators can't already find on Google Maps/Google Earth if it even has any significant capabilities at all.  Once it gets hit, though, it would be difficult to control and there is a risk of injury and/or damage to individuals and structures on the ground. 

If the military wants to bring it down to get a better look at it, their best option is probably to wait until it goes out to sea and shoot it down and retrieve it there.  It's too low a threat to risk it otherwise.

[Brekar]

I'm wondering what's stopping someone with a precision long range rifle from taking a shot at this thing and knocking it down.

80,000 - 120,000 ft altitude. 

That balloon passed within 40 miles of where I live here in Missouri, a buddy I work with at the railroad was taking pictures of it over his house and posting them to Facebook. I assumed that the "lost balloon" was just an excuse to gather some sort of data, test our responses, or the lack there of, to an "accidental" incursion form a foreign power.

Just a thought, but isn't 80,000 - 120,000 ft optimal height for an EMP attack?

[NT2C]

[majorhavoc]

Just a thought, but isn't 80,000 - 120,000 ft optimal height for an EMP attack?

Hmmmm.  Makes you wonder exactly what is attached to the balloon that could produce an EMP.  Perhaps that's why the military is so reluctant to shoot it down ...

[aikorob]

just going to park this here.......without comment
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=248028#discuss

[Rednex]

Maybe I'm just thinking worst case scenarios here. What if it was " dirty" like chemicals or bio , float over a reservoir drop tiny payload into drinking water. Convert everyone/thing into "zombies". Ain't China where the rona came from.


 

[Anianna]

Maybe I'm just thinking worst case scenarios here. What if it was " dirty" like chemicals or bio , float over a reservoir drop tiny payload into drinking water. Convert everyone/thing into "zombies". Ain't China where the rona came from.


 

Our government and military have eyes on it.  I'm sure they've at least considered that possibility in their determination how to handle it.

[majorhavoc]

There's clearly more to this story than the military is letting on.  The "someone might get injured from falling debris" explanation just doesn't hold water.  They can track this accurately and could shoot it down over a sparsely populated area.  They don't need to destroy it, just perforate the balloon material and it'll come down well short of terminal velocity.  I'm thinking a directed energy weapon of some kind would do the job nicely. 

Either they're developing a plan to bring it down intact over land, or they have some intelligence indicating that this thing has some kind of dangerous cargo.  In which case they'll shoot it out of the sky over water.

If the US truly believes this balloon is being used by the Chinese to spy, then recovering it relatively intact is clearly a priority.  It would not only be a intelligence bonanza, it would be tangible proof that this is an espionage apparatus operating in violation of international law.  Parading that proof in front of the Chinese, and especially other countries, would give the US maximum diplomatic leverage in whatever plans we have for dealing with China on the world stage.

I do not for a second believe we're just going to let this thing drift away after it crosses the continent.  I like Anianna's theory: they're waiting for it to get over the Atlantic before shooting it down and recovering it.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

Anianna's theory does make a lot of sense.

I don't know how sparsely populated Montana is, but shooting the balloon down over water makes more sense than downing it over land.

[echo83]

Well, we just took it out. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64524105

When do we start the USA! USA! USA! chant?

[majorhavoc]

Well, we just took it out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64524105

When do we start the USA! USA! USA! chant?

Anianna wins the toaster oven!  

[NT2C]

Our government and military have eyes on it.  I'm sure they've at least considered that possibility in their determination how to handle it.

Is that supposed to be a comforting and reassuring thought?  Because... 

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

Our government and military have eyes on it.  I'm sure they've at least considered that possibility in their determination how to handle it.

Is that supposed to be a comforting and reassuring thought?  Because... 

I think most people would have more faith in a wet fart than they would the Feds.

[Anianna]

Our government and military have eyes on it.  I'm sure they've at least considered that possibility in their determination how to handle it.

Is that supposed to be a comforting and reassuring thought?  Because... 

Our government and military have eyes on it.  I'm sure they've at least considered that possibility in their determination how to handle it.

Is that supposed to be a comforting and reassuring thought?  Because... 

I think most people would have more faith in a wet fart than they would the Feds.

Guys, I'm not saying they're guaranteed to make the best decision about it, just that they at least thought about it before they made the decision.  😂

Well, we just took it out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64524105

When do we start the USA! USA! USA! chant?

Anianna wins the toaster oven! 

Whoohoo!