Someone hit my wife's car.
It did not cause a lot of damage or any injuries and there is insurance to cover the costs. It is still safe to drive ... so no big deal right?

My wife calls around and it will take until 2022 to even get the car into a repair shop to get fixed...Hurricane Ida & COVID are the stated reasons. She refuses to drive a damaged car so she decides to go rent a car. There are basically none available for about a week and it will be whatever kind of car that comes in take it or leave it and go back to the end of the line. So she gets frustrated and goes to her "favorite" dealership and is told they are happy to take the damaged car in trade at a very favorable price even with the damage. Sounds good right?

But they do not have any cars on the lot for immediate delivery. They have several but all are already sold and the ones that are not sold have been delivered without the "magic black box" that makes them operate. (not sure how they got them off the car carrier?).

They have a few nice used cars by few I mean about 5 that very highly over priced and are not anything that she wants.

So they suggest that they would be happy to take a refundable deposit for a new car ordered from the factory. It should be ready for delivery around March 2022 and she could drive her old car until then. Oh and BTW the price is the MSRP with a 10% non-negotiable markup.

So she is back to square one: 1. Drive a damaged car. 2. Try and get a rental car while she waits until a body shop slot opens up. That or shop for used car and hope she can find what she wants. She hates shopping for cars so that means she expects me to do that...been there, done that with new cars never mind a used car...I find a car she likes and in 6 months it is a "POS that I made her get." So my standard mantra is pick what you want and buy it.

I have washed my hands of the matter. I told her to go to another dealer/brand and see what they have. I also offered to swap cars with her or she can deal with it as best she can...no UBER is not something she will use. That is the best I can do and will not jump through hoops for artificial limitations.

Now the reason for this post is (yes a little venting also) because as of how the car buying world has been turned on its head in the last year.

The Ford CEO in a recent shareholders report discussed what Ford will be doing in the future.

https://news.yahoo.com/chip-crisis-helping-automakers-dealers-170325158.html

Ford as well as other carmakers are all trying to turn to the "order it and wait for delivery model" of car selling or at least trying to do so to the greatest extent possible. This instead of build it, send it and discount what does not sell.

The glut of produced vehicles waiting for "magic black boxes" is such that manufacturers (not just Ford) are shipping cars to dealers to sit on their lots instead of waiting for the boxes and completing them. I assume the box is plug and play/drive. They are doing this to reduce storage costs (plus it count as a sale) but also so the dealers want them so that they do not look like they are out of inventory. A car dealer with no cars is not a place most buyers would want to approach.

The dealers are all trying to buy used cars to fill up their lots and the prices are now much higher and the dealers are actually selling higher priced vehicles at a profit.

So the takeaway here is:

1. If you want a new or newer car you may want to wait a while to see what shakes out.

2. Take good care of your current vehicle, replacing it may be difficult.

3. If you have a used vehicle that you may not need, this may be great time to sell it and free up cash.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/10/28/used-car-prices-chip-shortage/

QuoteAs a new car, the Civic would have had a sticker price of around $21,000. But within seconds at the wholesale auction, the two-year-old model, with 4,000 miles, sold for $27,200.

Soon after, a Nissan Rogue fetched what it would have cost new in 2018. A three-year old Toyota Camry with large dents and scratches on its hood sold for $14,200, nearly twice what it would have brought just a few years ago. And a 2015 Kia Sorento sold for $12,600, a staggering amount for a six-year-old car with 83,000 miles.

4. Vehicles will be more expensive. It used to be if you could get close to the "dealer cost before rebates" you got a fair price. Now MSRP seems to be that new pricing point.

5. Be prepared to have to order a new car and wait for delivery. right now dealers do have car orders in the pipeline and they sell this pipeline orders to customers much as they used to sell cars on the lot. You just have to wait for delivery a few days or a few months based upon the position.








 

Check out the average transaction prices for new cars:  https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2021-10-13-Average-New-Vehicle-Transaction-Prices-Top-45,000-for-First-Time,-According-to-Kelley-Blue-Book  tl;dr  In September 2021, the average new vehicle transaction price hit $45,031! 

I'm in the Detroit area, and the dealers around here still have quite a bit of inventory, but nowhere near what it would normally be.  My parents said that the dealers near them in Ohio only have a couple of cars at a time.  One of the biggest Chevy dealers in the country is located just outside my subdivision and they probably have 200-300 cars right now, which is well down from the 1000+ that they would normally have. 

If you have a lease which is coming due, make sure to look at the buyout price for your car/truck.  In many cases it is well below the current market and it can net you a healthy amount of money to buy the car, then immediately sell it to the dealer (this has become very popular).  One of my co-workers basically had the entire cost of his lease covered by the profit he made buying the truck out and selling it to the dealer at the end of the lease (somewhere around $13k difference between the lease buyout price and what the dealer gave him for it).

There are also dealers calling people who bought cars over the last few years, offering to buy them back, sometimes at a higher price than the original transaction.  My parents got a call like this about their Nissan and I've talked to several others who have had offers as well.  My parents turned it down, as they want to keep their vehicle, but at least one person that I know of decided it was worth the extra money to sell theirs.

I had been planning to purchase a new vehicle last year, then put it off when Covid hit and I started to work from home (no point in buying a new vehicle, just to have it sit in the garage most of the time).  Now it looks like it'll probably be at least another year, maybe two before I finally get around to replacing my 2006 Mazda.  I always buy used, and I usually have a lengthy list of possible vehicles, which helps me to be much more flexible than many buyers.  Both of my vehicles are quite old (the truck is a 2004) with a lot of miles (194k for the truck and 143k for my Mazda), so I'm not really getting dealers calling up and offering to buy them!      They're both working fine, so I'm not all that bummed about the delay.

In general, my area has not yet been hit as bad by the shortages. The cost of cars is through the roof, but they're still fairly available. A few weeks ago I picked up a 1990 4runner with near perfect body, 280k miles but obviously well maintained engine that the mechanic says is still rock solid. I paid $3300. I've been seeing a lot of obviously brand new cars on the road, especially jeep wranglers, gladiators, and the new bronco sport. For all the news of the new bronco sport being impossible to find, I see them everywhere.

If anyone is truly in dire need of buying a large piece of equipment like a car and can't find them locally, it may be worth looking farther afield if you have the resources to do so.

This last summer my buddy that lives about 800 miles from me found the van he wanted near me and flew out to buy it. Even with the plane ticket and drive home, he came out several thousand dollars ahead and saved 3 months estimated wait to get what he wanted. Just cause some areas are hit worse than others by the shortages.

Quote from: EBuff75 on November 02, 2021, 12:20:37 PM
Check out the average transaction prices for new cars:  https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2021-10-13-Average-New-Vehicle-Transaction-Prices-Top-45,000-for-First-Time,-According-to-Kelley-Blue-Book  tl;dr  In September 2021, the average new vehicle transaction price hit $45,031! 

Geez an trailing 12 month average (TTM) for all manufacturers is an increase in cost of 12.1%
With Daimler, Mitsubishi and GM all up over 20%. (I honestly thought Mitsubishi pulled out of the US market ...  ) 

While Honda, Hyundai/Kia, Mazda, Toyota & Volvo are all above the 12.1% average.

Tesla shows up as flat but the note indicates their data was incomplete. So potentially the 12.9% is low.

So to put that in perspective

A link to the similar story for 2019 shows the same average price was $38,259. So an increase of ~ 18% since 2019.

https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2019-11-01-Average-New-Vehicle-Prices-Up-Nearly-3-Year-Over-Year-According-to-Kelley-Blue-Book

Nope no inflation there.

BTW I checked Carmax.com, Carvana.com and enterprise car sales. All have inventory in my area but they are not exactly reasonably priced.

We bought a jeep grand cherokee early this year. And sold it last week for $750 more than we paid for it. It was my sons car. He didnt like driving it. Headroom issue. And needed better gas mileage. Probably could have made $1500. But he disnt want to wait.

Now were looking for a toyota rav4 from the 2006-2012 era. Seems to be lots to choose from. And prices are not outlandish.

I bought one car off the lot new as a tax write off that i needed one year. It was back when carsdirect was around. I saved 10k. Picked it up at the dealership. Paid cash. No upselling. They weren't even allowed to offer me anything or talk me into a warranty.

But that is the only rrason id buy a new car off the lot. You lose thousands just by driving it off the lot.

My strategy for car buying is private party 1 or 2 owner cars with low miles. Good carfax. Those things arent the bible. But damned if they cant tell you ALOT about a car. Then i offer to pay for an inspection at their local dealership or mechanic of my choosing. They always say yes.  And i use the repairs list to negotiate the price down. Ive always had good results with this.

And i dont finance anything. I only buy cars i can afford in cash. Its those hidden finance fees that kill you.

Plus any car dealer - used or new - has so many bullshit fees and pushy exhausting sales tactics. I wont even deal with them.

But. I live in Southern California. The car capitol of america. Tons of private owner cars to choose from. So im not adverse to finding cars out of state if you cant find one. Searchtempest.com is very helpful. You can search craigslist by multi state areas with one search query. Shipping can be $500-$2000. Or you could use a driveaway service. Where someone drives it to you. Or fly to the car and drive it back. But this only works on 1 owner, low miles, inspected vehicles. I bought a pristine 67 vw this way. With no hiccups. But it was a cherry car to begin with.

I was always confused why my sisters would buy off used lots. But sometimes in small areas there arent that many private party cars for sale. But my afvice is to search further. And go drive it home yourself.

I'm seeing the same here.  Prices are up, and supply is down.  What is available is high mileage, and not always in the best condition.

I would like to find something more fuel efficient to replace my truck as my daily driver, and to save mileage on it as well, but when the best "deal" I have been able to find right now is a 2011 Hyundai Accent with 124,000 miles, that needs a new windshield and exhaust, and has "a few" dings and dents, for the low low price of $4k, I think I'm going to be putting miles on the truck for now.

I'm seeing a lot more private sellers in my AO and oftentimes the prices are fair, but occasionally you'll get some delusional person thinking their 1988 Chevy Silverado that's been wrecked, has a salvage title and a crappy rattle can paint job is worth 30K just because they slapped a set of new Mickey Thompson tires on it.

I do love reading the comments on those ads, though. Especially when the delusional seller gets their friends to come defend the vehicle price because they saw the same year model truck sell at Barrett-Jackson for more.

It's about like folks selling stuff at pawn shops and thinking they'll get big bucks because someone sold a similar item to the guys from "Pawn Stars" for a lot of money.

Great replies here! Thank You!

My personal preference is always a used car preferably less than 2 years old with fewer than 25,000 miles and thus still in factory warranty. (no wrecks showing up on carfax please).

In one instance  (long before this fiasco) a car I purchased was less than a year old, had less than 10,000 miles on it and with the certified used car warranty gave me a bumper to bumper warrant for 5 years and 100,000 miles; better and longer than the same car new. To top it off it was $5,000 less than the same car new. So a longer warranty and $5,000 less than the same car new... a no brainer IMO.

My wife is the opposite.

She finally got a rental car and has accepted the reality of the current market.

Car manufacturers seem to have production issues all over the place.  My parents ordered a brand new Mercedes GLA in February, with delivery date in early may. After lots of delays blame on component shortages the car was finally built in October an is currently waiting for transport. They are hoping to get it by the end of the year... Used car prices seem to be reasonably stable this side of the pond thought.

Quote from: Asparagus on November 09, 2021, 01:07:32 AM
Car manufacturers seem to have production issues all over the place.  My parents ordered a brand new Mercedes GLA in February, with delivery date in early may. After lots of delays blame on component shortages the car was finally built in October an is currently waiting for transport. They are hoping to get it by the end of the year... Used car prices seem to be reasonably stable this side of the pond thought.

This right here. One of my jobs at the railroad is moving rail cars to and from the local automotive plant so they can ship new cars out. I've been in and out of the plant 25 times in the last 2-3 months and it's always the same. I'll deliver rail cars full of engines, body parts, and frames, and they keep making them. But they have thousands and thousands of brand new Chevrolet Malibu's and Cadillac XT4's, all just sitting outside, all completed, except for a missing critical part, currently a chip issue I believe. So because of issues like that cars are 99.99% complete but not shipping until they are completed...

Quote from: Asparagus on November 09, 2021, 01:07:32 AM
Car manufacturers seem to have production issues all over the place.  My parents ordered a brand new Mercedes GLA in February, with delivery date in early may. After lots of delays blame on component shortages the car was finally built in October an is currently waiting for transport. They are hoping to get it by the end of the year... Used car prices seem to be reasonably stable this side of the pond thought.

That seems to be the route several car companies are taking now. Place your order and expect delivery in 6 to 9 months.
   

Talked to a salesman from our local Chevy dealership yesterday at work.
This is a SMALL town with a SMALL car dealership.
They are getting orders from and shipping to Albany New York, Buffalo New York, down to Connecticut, Massachusetts , etc. Not just for their new inventory, but for their used inventory as well.
He said it's the craziest thing he's ever seen.
Here's the local dealership: https://www.noyeschevrolet.com/

Quote from: Lambykins on November 09, 2021, 12:51:50 PM
Talked to a salesman from our local Chevy dealership yesterday at work.
This is a SMALL town with a SMALL car dealership.
They are getting orders from and shipping to Albany New York, Buffalo New York, down to Connecticut, Massachusetts , etc. Not just for their new inventory, but for their used inventory as well.
He said it's the craziest thing he's ever seen.
Here's the local dealership: https://www.noyeschevrolet.com/

They need to change this policy ASAP they are leaving $$$$ on the table.

Handy Kid's gf's 1990s Jeep Cherokee had a cracked engine and she was expecting to buy a new used car.  We couldn't find anything around here for a reasonable price, so she ended up paying for a new engine to be put in.  Normally, this would be a ridiculous choice short of an emotional connection to the vehicle, but it turned out to be the most financially sound choice in the current market.  Plus, she does like her old Cherokee and was happy to keep it. 

Quote from: Raptor on November 09, 2021, 02:09:23 PM

Quote from: Lambykins on November 09, 2021, 12:51:50 PM
Talked to a salesman from our local Chevy dealership yesterday at work.
This is a SMALL town with a SMALL car dealership.
They are getting orders from and shipping to Albany New York, Buffalo New York, down to Connecticut, Massachusetts , etc. Not just for their new inventory, but for their used inventory as well.
He said it's the craziest thing he's ever seen.
Here's the local dealership: https://www.noyeschevrolet.com/

They need to change this policy ASAP they are leaving $$$$ on the table.

Just curious, how do their prices compare (new and used) in your locale? Or anyone elses locale?

I looked at the certified used cars and the price of these Used Equinoxes is about the price i paid for a new 2019 Equinox for my Wyoming office. It was cheaper in Wyoming to buy a car for office use than rent one for a week and hope they had one....that was in 2019.

So 2 years later the price is the same.

I think my area is going to have a fast growing complication in car prices due to a shortage of mechanics.

The old stereotype of a mechanic exagerating what needs to be fixed to get more work is done and gone. Now they're turning people away or trying to convince them things don't need to be fixed due to a lack of staff to take the work.

I've had a frustrating week visiting mechanics and at work I'm regularly checking company vehicles out to people having similar problems getting their vehicles fixed (employee owned company with a culture that this is ok if not abused). My maintenance guy says he's had to do some arm twisting to get the shop that maintains our fleet to accept our vehicles as well (fleet dealership we also buy from).

Parts shortages may be a factor for some of my coworkers mechanical issues, but for me it was specifically a shortage of skilled labor.

Update on looking for a 2006-2011 toyota rav4. This past 3 months in LA.

The first 3 vehicles we ran a carfax on had odometer fraud. It appears to be rampant in LA. Like 156k actually on the vehicle. But the electronic odometer reads 76k. Meanwhile the drivers seat is trashed and the exterior looks like its been used by a family of gangsters in Mogadishu. All of them have the plates obscured. Not to say some people do that for just silly reasons. But there are clues.

Seriously tho. We've gotten pretty good at spotting odometer fakes.

Weird thing is - no one must care. I remember back in the day this was a big deal. And taken seriously.

Other than that were hooked on rav4s with V6 engines and 4wd. Which weve learned is sort of hard to find. Weve found a half dozen since october. And they either turned out to be scams or we missed them by a matter of an hour or so of posting. As someone else bought them. (We get fairly accurate updates from all the major online used car postings. But some do slip by for no apparent reason. So we check often throughout the day.)

There are a glut of rav4s for sale here. But few are nice. Meaning 1 or 2 owner with no wrecks and good maintenance records. So were still looking.

If i didnt want v6 and 4wd. I could find a good used rav4 here well within reason. There are a ton of them for sale. So i would say the used car market is good to fair for a buyer right now. 

I just picked up a used Dodge Dart in good shape for about $2k under KBB's estimated value--the dealer was having a hell of a time trying to sell a car with a manual transmission...

Quote from: Mr. E. Monkey on December 29, 2021, 08:52:03 AM
I just picked up a used Dodge Dart in good shape for about $2k under KBB's estimated value--the dealer was having a hell of a time trying to sell a car with a manual transmission...

I think like less than 4% of cars are manual now. Crazy. But ya. You can get used manual hondas for cheap too.