You may want to make sure your freedom seeds are up to the your desired inventory levels. The current supplies of NATO small arms ammo is reported to be low. If the US starts sending ammunition to Israel as well as Ukraine supplies will get tighter very quickly. 

I am not saying panic buy just that it is currently available at somewhat reasonable price points. That may not be the case in a few weeks.

If I remember correctly, Israel has domestic producers of ammunition.

I think IMI is the name of one of them. I see that brand on MidwayUSA all the time.

Israel is also not a member of NATO so it's unlikely they'd cause any notable strain on existing supplies.

I imagine a country that views itself as being surrounded by enemies and where regular people have safe rooms, maintains a very high level of "consumable" supplies.  

Israel mobilized 300,000 reservists. Each one will some ammo. That is huge surge in demand.

I hope I am wrong  That said...hope is not the best plan A.


This is from Jan 2023 discussing how the ready reserve of ammo and munitions stockpiled in Israel has been used on Ukraine.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-quietly-shipping-ammo-to-ukraine-from-massive-stockpile-in-israel-report/

This article deals munitions, but small arms ammo may come later.
https://nypost.com/2023/10/10/first-us-weapons-arrive-in-israel-after-hamas-attacks-idf/

One of the lessons re-learned in Ukraine is how fast a war actually burns through equipment and supplies.  It's not necessarily hard to manufacture the things needed (particularly basic munitions sort of stuff), but getting the plants switched over / built and the supply chain set up takes time to do.  When there's suddenly a call for hundreds of millions, or even billions of rounds of ammo that weren't currently in the supply setup, it takes time to get that spun up. 

Israel has the capacity to meet many of their own needs initially, but will quickly start to need outside assistance to replenish it, presuming that this war goes like their previous wars have.  It's easy to forget how small it really is, not to mention how resource-poor of a country it is for the raw materials that will be needed.  They're going to need a massive bump in imported materials (metals, chemicals) in order to make ammo, as well as already-manufactured ammo to fill in any gaps before they might be able to meet the production demands.  In the meantime, I would expect that they'll slam the door shut on any exports of ammunition so that they can use the production locally.

Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 10, 2023, 05:07:15 PMIf I remember correctly, Israel has domestic producers of ammunition.

I think IMI is the name of one of them. I see that brand on MidwayUSA all the time.

Correct. That was the point.

Quote from: NT2C on October 10, 2023, 08:40:16 PMIsrael is also not a member of NATO so it's unlikely they'd cause any notable strain on existing supplies.

That isn't how supply chains work.

Quote"We are working as fast as possible to provide critically needed munitions of various types and other equipment. We're also contacting U.S. industry to gain expedited shipment of pending Israeli orders for military equipment that otherwise may have been considered routine for movement," the senior defense official said in yesterday's briefing. "We're also working across the DOD enterprise, including with U.S. Central Command, to assess what munitions and other equipment are in U.S. inventory that can be made quickly available for Israel."
"There's already a new tranche of material going to Israel," Kirby said on MSNBC. "It's definitely on the way. And it does include interceptor missiles, some artillery ammunition, and other types of munitions that we know will be important for the Israeli Defense Forces."
The official insisted the U.S. has the capability to continue to support both Ukraine and Israel while maintaining the global readiness of the U.S. military.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-not-ruling-out-commando-mission-to-rescue-american-hostages-held-by-hamas-in-gaza

Personally I am extremely skeptical.  The government has a terrible track record with predicting the future and what they can and can't do. Even if they can, it says nothing about the civilian market. Be that as it is, I am reasonably well stocked on zombie pills. I am pretty frugal with my range trips and don't waste much. I don' know if it will ever get back to 2008-11 levels of pain again where we had a nexus event of politics, disasters and odd business cycle that made it crazy short, but I hope not.

Note that in the article the US is also floating the idea of sending SOF troops into Gaza and the West Bank. IMO, This is the granddaddy of bad ideas. Forget about getting the camel nose under the tent, we are extremely vulnerable to attack from terrorists sneaking in across our unguarded Southern border. Assuming they aren't already here, which is likely. If the US jumps into this briar patch all bets are off so far as ammo goes, a lot of other things as well.

US ammo arrives in Israel ahead of expected ground operation in Gaza

My point regarding Israel not being a NATO member was that Israel would not be directly drawing down on current NATO stocks.  It may affect future production but as for what stocks we currently hold at various locations, those stockpiles should not need to be reduced.

Practically everything the IDF shoot is NATO caliber. The US, Germany, Brits, France and Italy have all committed to sending munitions.  I am not sure what I am missing here.

Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 11, 2023, 08:20:59 AMPractically everything the IDF shoot is NATO caliber. The US, Germany, Brits, France and Italy have all committed to sending munitions.  I am not sure what I am missing here.

Perhaps things have changed since my military time working with ammo storage and supplies but back then it wasn't just one big pile marked "AMMO", there were specific stockpiles for specific purposes that were not touched for any other purpose (other than stock rotation).  Forward-deployed NATO stockpiles would be a good example of such. If our .mil and .gov types are raiding that particular cookie jar to supply Israel then China and Russia must be looking on with glee.

I had done an ammo count last weekend.

Wife: What'er you doing?
Mac: Counting ammo.
Wife: Yeah, we need more ammo. [in earnest, she's not sarcastic ]

After counting I was planning on upping my 556 another level* since prices are not terrible. And then starting to cache a new type 556 77gr JHP.

After seeing the news story this morning about the ammo delivery from US to Israel, I said out loud to my wife, "there goes the price of ammo." 

*1K to 2K rnds

Quote from: NT2C on October 11, 2023, 08:48:27 AM

Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 11, 2023, 08:20:59 AMPractically everything the IDF shoot is NATO caliber. The US, Germany, Brits, France and Italy have all committed to sending munitions.  I am not sure what I am missing here.

Perhaps things have changed since my military time working with ammo storage and supplies but back then it wasn't just one big pile marked "AMMO", there were specific stockpiles for specific purposes that were not touched for any other purpose (other than stock rotation).  Forward-deployed NATO stockpiles would be a good example of such. If our .mil and .gov types are raiding that particular cookie jar to supply Israel then China and Russia must be looking on with glee.

Yep.

Quote If our .mil and .gov types are raiding that particular cookie jar to supply Israel then China and Russia must be looking on with glee.

We will not be privy to the truth. That said there are public articles about taking ammunition and munitions from the US stockpile in Israel early in 2023 and giving them to Ukraine. That was likely a mix of 155mm shells that are in short supply but likely also included a mixed bag of munitions and small arms ammo.

The good news for us anyway (most of us do not have 155mm howitzers)  is that Ukraine still uses a lot of 7.62x39 & 5.45x39. That said in pictures I am seeing a bunch of M-16/M-4 so they clearly are  using 5.56x45mm.
https://www.militaryfactory.com/smallarms/detail.php?smallarms_id=1270
https://www.militaryfactory.com/smallarms/detail.php?smallarms_id=592

I suspect that any stockpiles that had "extra" have been harvested. The NATO ammo that is imported from Israel will likely be diverted for internal use. Other countries have been selling ammo in the US which both increased supply and reduced prices. The easiest place to get replacement ammo for Israel is these overseas sources.

There are shipments that are still in transit and likely further orders for shipment to the US.

That said we have seen 300,000 new consumers of ammo (IDF reservists) come into the demand side of the supply and demand curve. I suspect that will make a negative impact on US civilian supplies and there prices thereon.

This is pure speculation on my part. I am not saying go out and buy, but rather make sure you will not need to resupply in the next few months.

One thing I can guarantee will happen is ammo scalpers will come out of the woodwork and begin snatching up as much 5.56 and other NATO calibers as they can and then try to offload it online for 10 times (or more) than what they paid for it.

Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 11, 2023, 05:14:48 PMOne thing I can guarantee will happen is ammo scalpers will come out of the woodwork and begin snatching up as much 5.56 and other NATO calibers as they can and then try to offload it online for 10 times (or more) than what they paid for it.

Absolutely.

Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 12, 2023, 08:00:25 AM

Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 11, 2023, 05:14:48 PMOne thing I can guarantee will happen is ammo scalpers will come out of the woodwork and begin snatching up as much 5.56 and other NATO calibers as they can and then try to offload it online for 10 times (or more) than what they paid for it.

Absolutely.

Speaking of ammo scalpers, anyone check what Cheaper Than Dirt is selling ammo for yet ?

I'm getting the feeling they'll be advertising 5.56 ammo at 90 bucks for a 20 round box here soon.

Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 12, 2023, 02:53:59 PMSpeaking of ammo scalpers, anyone check what Cheaper Than Dirt is selling ammo for yet ?

I'm getting the feeling they'll be advertising 5.56 ammo at 90 bucks for a 20 round box here soon.

As of two minutes ago it was $9.89 for 20 rounds of 55 grain. Still within the realm of reasonable. I hope I am wrong.

https://www.cheaperthandirt.com/winchester-service-grade-5.56-nato-ammunition-20-rounds-fmj-55-grains/FC-020892225626.html