Quote from: majorhavoc on May 17, 2023, 06:19:36 PM

Quote from: Raptor on May 17, 2023, 05:50:42 PMIt very clear to me that modern combat is extraordinarily lethal.
 

True.  But so is military incompetence. 

And from what we've seen from the Ruskies, they've got plenty of that to go around.

Another American Among Hundreds of Thousands of Casualties

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-warlord-posed-body-us-army-veteran-killed-ukraine-2023-5

For those not aware "Grandpa" is a term of derision applied to Putin. What he is saying is that the dead American has more honor than Putin. It doesn't translate well.

After The Mail-in Ballots are Counted Patriot Declared Winner in Round 3, Still Undefeated

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230517-patriot-missile-system-in-ukraine-damaged-but-operational-us

The Russians are going to keep trying until it is dead. Otherwise they are giving up on air power. This has been the nuttiest war between a world power and an also ran in decades.

Russia Unveils Civic (De)Construction Projects in Ukraine

https://www.businessinsider.com/before-and-after-images-show-destruction-of-ukraines-bakhmut-2023-5

As if we needed any more proof about how horrible and wasteful war is.

Ah, this just in. Prigozhin threatens to do to Russian Lawmaker and General what he has been doing to the Ukraine.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagner-mercs-threaten-to-rape-lawmaker-viktor-sobolev-on-red-square

Quote from: Raptor on May 17, 2023, 05:50:42 PMI saw today that a claim that Russia has had 200,000 combat casualties.

Obviously this may be propaganda and not the case (I doubt anyone knows the exact #) but it is clear that they have suffered a lot of KIA and most likely a lot of non-lethal combat casualties.

That said in ww2 1941 - 1945 the US had ~291,000 people KIA in combat. In Korea the KIA were ~ 35,000 and Vietnam ~ 47,000 were KIA. (per wikipedia)

Obviously this ignores the civilian deaths.

It very clear to me that modern combat is extraordinarily lethal. I knew this; but this really puts it in focus.
 

I am pretty sure the 200K is a little low, probably at this point closer to 250K with up to 70K KIA, the rest WIA. The Ukes aren't doing much better. Likely looking at 150K with 50K KIA and 100K WIA.

This is the tragedy of a generation, not just for those two countries but the secondary effects throughout Europe. When you think of the raw greed and ego of one man that drove them to this point, all the needless dead and the destruction he has wrought and it's inevitable pointless conclusion... the waste is beyond a just accounting.

Following the Hitler Play Book, Putin Gathers Religious Artifacts

Putin Appeals to Russian Church as Dangers to His Regime Grow (msn.com)

It may not be the Ark of the Covenant but it worked for Peter the Great.


Kremlin Awkwardly Moves Goal Posts to Counter Straw Man Western Support Argument

Kremlin Preparing Russians for Defeats in Ukraine (msn.com)

Man who talks out of both sides of mouth, only wrong half the time. If the Ukes weren't a threat before the war, they are now. Nothing like having a pissed off Spider Monkey on your back.


How to Enjoy the Apocalypse in Putin Style

Putin FURIOUS As Leaked Plans Reveal Secret Bunker Below $1.4bn Palace (msn.com)

The internet is forever. If you don't want people to know where your underground ice skating rink is located in your super villain fortress don't post it on Only Fans. Aholes will totally screen grab it it share it freely. We have all been there. Really this deserves it's own post. Since Raptor is the only of us that can fully afford to build it out he should be the one to share it there.

A good boots-in-the-mud perspective on one small battle in a very large war.

How Ukraine Reversed the Momentum in Bakhmut

QuoteNo two battles in war are identical. They are shaped by the contours of the land, the strength of the opposing forces, the weapons available, the weather and a host of other factors. The fighting outside Ivanivske offers only a small window into the furious fighting in and around Bakhmut, where Russian forces continue to wage a scorched-earth campaign inside the city limits.

But the three-day battle provides a telling example of how Ukraine hopes to exploit the very public divisions among the three principal Russian forces fighting in Bakhmut: the Wagner private military company, loyal to Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, Chechen militias loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov and the regular army.

It is also a reminder that retaking land from a well-entrenched enemy is a brutal affair fought at close quarters. "You need to understand the cost of this advance," Hanna Maliar, a deputy defense minister, said on Friday. "It is extremely difficult to carry out combat tasks there, because the enemy has concentrated a huge amount of his efforts."

Colonel Biletsky dismissed notions that the Russians were poorly equipped as "more TikTok propaganda than reality."

"The enemy is ready," he said. "They are well personally equipped, armed, they have means of communication, good armored vehicles and a very good system of unmanned aerial vehicles."

QuoteWhen Ukrainian commanders noticed the Russians rotating in new units, replacing Wagner mercenary fighters with soldiers from Russia's 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, they decided to try to take the other side by surprise.

Before dawn on May 6, unit commanders assembled and were given their orders: Cross a distance of about 500 meters from the Russian front line southwest of the village of Ivanivske to the Russians' second line of defense. And do it quietly.
 
To maintain the element of surprise, the Ukrainians decided not to use artillery. Infantry soldiers following armored vehicles moved swiftly to cover the scorched ground, the threat of detection by Russian drones an ever-present risk.

Once Ukrainian soldiers got to the second trench line, the Russians realized what was happening and the fighting was intense and chaotic. Soldiers described having to move quickly to storm trenches, turning corners even as they were unsure what they would find — and often coming face-to-face with the opposing side. They also had to clear out the Russian positions now at their back.

QuoteIn the quiet hours, they talked, ate and made sinister jokes.

"Who were you before the war?" one soldier asks another in a video shared by the brigade.

"A fireman," the other soldier replies. "I used to save people, but now I kill them."

"A fireman," the other soldier replies. "I used to save people, but now I kill them."    Just about as chilling and cold blooded as one can be.  You know I remember when this all started. They were passing out Kalashnikovs  to  the citizens turned militia to help repel the russians. They filmed and talked to a middle aged woman somewhere in age between mid forties to mid fifties.  She had seen her families younger children off to safety and was listening intently to the soldier explaining how to use the AK. She was no longer young but still a very beautiful lady. Frightened but  deliberate in her  resolve to  help defend her country.  I pray this fine lady is alive and well.

Russia Declares Ukraine is Cheating by Plagiarizing the Entire US ADA Network

US Avenger an 'important boost' for Ukrainian air defense (msn.com)

While the Avenger is semi-bullet resistant note that they added a some bolt on ballistic plates to the weak spots. Good notes for those interested in up armoring their vehicles.

Alas, Bakhmut!

Zelensky Issues Update on Fate of Bakhmut: 'Only In Our Hearts' (newsweek.com)
Putin congratulates Russia troops, Wagner for 'capturing Bakhmut' | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
Ukraine war: Why Bakhmut matters for Russia and Ukraine - BBC News
Zelenskiy Says Bakhmut Fell, But With High Russian Casualties | Watch (msn.com)

As usual the Western media won't report any Russia claims of victory. Either way the city looks like Frankfurt, Germany after WWII. It does control a key crossroads and would allow the Russians better logistics on their front if they even think of such things.

Third Former Warmongering Fascist State Pledges Unwavering Solidarity with Ukraine

At G7, Japanese PM pledges 'unwavering solidarity' with Ukraine | News | Al Jazeera

"A longtime advocate against nuclear weapons who has family roots in Hiroshima, Kishida reiterated calls for a world free from the threat of nuclear war, declaring: "We are all citizens of Hiroshima."

"Kishida added that there should "never be any threat of the use of nuclear weapons, let alone use of nuclear weapons, to change the status quo by force", in an apparent reference to Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons."

Moldova Citizens Appeal to Government to be Placed Next on List for Russian Invasion

Tens of thousands rally in Moldova for EU membership | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

If the numbers are to be believed that is 2.8% of the population that was at the demonstration. In the US that would be the equivalent of about 9,000,000 people at a protest. Before the invasion they were doing their best to remain neutral. Lucky for them they don't have anything that Putin wants like a bunch of oil fields and huge petro deposits off the coast like the Ukraine. They don't even have a coast or anything. They stole Transnistria almost a decade ago.

Russia Offers India Bribe of Stolen Ukrainian Black Sea Oil and Barely Used Surplus War Weapons to Stay off the Naughty List

Russia pleads with India for help avoiding financial black list, warning oil and weapons deals are at risk, report says (msn.com)

Is the friend of my enemy, the enemy of my friends? Is the enemy of my friend's friend, the friend of my enemy's enemy?  


Somebody's Land Forces Attacked Something in Russia

Russia claims it repelled one of war's most serious cross-border attacks (msn.com)

  The Black Box hypothesis of a causal relation between the input and the output. This principle states that input and output are distinct, that the system has observable (and relatable) inputs and outputs and that the system is black to the observer (non-openable). Of course when you can't observe anything, Schrodinger says it doesn't matter if the Russians are dead, so long as there are dead Russians.


Russia Celebrates Victory of Gaining Dozens of Sqaure Miles of Territory for a Paltry 100K Casaulties in Six Months

This map shows how little ground Russian forces gained over 5 months at a cost of 100,000 dead and wounded (msn.com)

It's a little humilating when Ukraine keeps asking; "Are you in yet?"

Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on May 23, 2023, 09:26:12 PMRussia Offers India Bribe of Stolen Ukrainian Black Sea Oil and Barely Used Surplus War Weapons to Stay off the Naughty List

Russia pleads with India for help avoiding financial black list, warning oil and weapons deals are at risk, report says (msn.com)

Is the friend of my enemy, the enemy of my friends? Is the enemy of my friend's friend, the friend of my enemy's enemy?   


Somebody's Land Forces Attacked Something in Russia

Russia claims it repelled one of war's most serious cross-border attacks (msn.com)

  The Black Box hypothesis of a causal relation between the input and the output. This principle states that input and output are distinct, that the system has observable (and relatable) inputs and outputs and that the system is black to the observer (non-openable). Of course when you can't observe anything, Schrodinger says it doesn't matter if the Russians are dead, so long as there are dead Russians.


Russia Celebrates Victory of Gaining Dozens of Sqaure Miles of Territory for a Paltry 100K Casaulties in Six Months

This map shows how little ground Russian forces gained over 5 months at a cost of 100,000 dead and wounded (msn.com)

It's a little humilating when Ukraine keeps asking; "Are you in yet?"

We appreciate your efforts to keep us informed and would like to send you a little something from our "Box 'O Loot".

PM me your mailing info and I'll get it into the mail for you ASAP.

Nice Alamist Headline: US intelligence indicates Ukrainians may have launched drone attack on Kremlin

Quote...However, the US has not been able to reach a definitive conclusion on who was responsible and only assesses with low confidence that a Ukrainian group may have been behind the incident, officials said...

Also it turns out that the cross border raid in the Belgorod region were Russian Nationals based out of and supported by Ukraine


Wagner chief warns Russians could revolt if invasion continues to struggle

Quote from: NT2C on May 24, 2023, 07:49:05 PM

Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on May 23, 2023, 09:26:12 PMIs the friend of my enemy, the enemy of my friends? Is the enemy of my friend's friend, the friend of my enemy's enemy?

Rule of Country Friendships: Countries have only allies not friendships.

Corollaries to this rule:

The enemy of my enemy is an ally:
1. as long as our goals are aligned.
2. as long cooperation costs nothing.

The friend of my enemy is:
1. A potential portal to introduce disinformation to my enemy
2.  A potential source of disinformation...assume everything they say is not correct and plan accordingly.



With all of the arms & ammo being shipped to Ukraine I wonder what state or readiness US & NATO now possess? 

NATO never did spend a lot of GDP on things like ammo and now they have shipped a lot of their stock piles to Ukraine. Russia is having to dig out all manner of weapons from their once copious warehouses. 

I suspect that the PRC is still probably full of ammo spam can stockpiles but who knows.

Lake city is ramping up production but this looks like it is for the 6.8mm round.
  https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2023/05/17/lake-city-army-ammunition-plant-68mm-production.html


I have also seen that Fiocci is adding production in the USA. 
https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2022/nov/16/italian-ammo-maker-plans-to-build-415m-factory-at/

If Ukraine leadership did indeed authorize the Kremlin drone attack, it's one of the few serious miscalculations that I'm aware of. Based on the superficial damage it caused the Kremlin structure itself, the warhead wasn't nearly powerful enough to have a realistic chance of killing anyone, let alone Putin specifically.

And if the attack was intended to be symbolic, it has created a pretext for Russian escalation, including going after Zelensky himself. The Russians may be inept on the battlefield, but they're pretty successful as assasins.

Plus, Kyiv knows how the US and NATO allies feel about attacks deep in Russian territory. That's a particular feeding hand Ukraine cannot afford to bite.

Overall, I'd characterize the Kremlin foray as "high risk/low reward".

If a Djinn gave me three wishes, one would be the never empty ammo can from Lake City

Apparently Ukraine is consuming huge amounts of ammo of all types.

QuoteDOD has directed the military to review war plans and reassess munitions expenditure estimates to inform future budget requests, Milley said.
For example, the number of Javelin anti-armor missiles the U.S. donated to Ukraine during the first six months of the war equals seven years of production, At normal manufacturing rates, it would take up to eight years to replenish U.S. arsenals of precision 155 mm rounds, Javelins and HIMARS ammunition as of January.

QuoteUkraine fires between 3,000 and 7,000 rounds each day, or the equivalent of yearly orders for a small European country...

BTW the US produces 15,000 155mm rounds per month so in 48 hours a month of production has been expended.

QuoteFor comparison, the U.S. [color=rgba(255, 42, 45, var(--tw-text-opacity))]produces[/color] about 15,000 artillery rounds per month, the NYT reported.

https://dailycaller.com/2023/04/09/pentagon-muntitions-congress-hearings-budget-china/

Quote from: majorhavoc on May 25, 2023, 02:54:08 PMIf Ukraine leadership did indeed authorize the Kremlin drone attack, it's one of the few serious miscalculations that I'm aware of. Based on the superficial damage it caused the Kremlin structure itself, the warhead wasn't nearly powerful enough to have a realistic chance of killing anyone, let alone Putin specifically.

And if the attack was intended to be symbolic, it has created a pretext for Russian escalation, including going after Zelensky himself. The Russians may be inept on the battlefield, but they're pretty successful as assasins.

Plus, Kyiv knows how the US and NATO allies feel about attacks deep in Russian territory. That's a particular feeding hand Ukraine cannot afford to bite.

Overall, I'd characterize the Kremlin foray as "high risk/low reward".

For a number of reasons I am pretty sure Ukraine wasn't behind the "drone attack" on the roof of he Kremlin..

You have mentioned some of them.

Also the explosion on the film didn't  look  like high explosives, but rather like "flash powder" /fireworks for visual effekt!! 
And was to weak to do any damage..

You have already mentioned a some possible motives for the Russian government to stage the "attack": 
(To have an excuse for assasinate Zelensky and/or to undermine the western support for ukraine)..

Another reason could be for "domestic consumption" to stir up patriotic feelings among the people and increase the support for the war...

Another "Putin Pox" victim?  Was a tall building not available?

President of Belarus hospitalised after meeting with Putin

Quote from: NT2C on May 27, 2023, 09:28:23 PMAnother "Putin Pox" victim?  Was a tall building not available?

President of Belarus hospitalised after meeting with Putin

I can't find reliable sources, but there were rumours earlier this month. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/15/images-of-lukashenko-released-after-rumours-over-belarusian-leaders-health
If this is new (and true) then both times were after being in contact with Russia.

Although I'm sceptical that Russia is to blame. Lukashenko is the closest ally he has in this and I can't see any way that this would profit them. If he were to die or step down it might very well overthrow the government in Belarus.

Unless of course, Lukashenko has done something behind the scenes to displease Putin.  Like, I don't know, maybe putting limiations on what nuclear forces Belarus is willing to host, or not allowing his country's own military directly assist Russia's troops struggling in Ukraine.  In which case comrade Lukashenko's most unfortuate and untimely illness or death would obligate loyal ally Russia to move in and stabilize the country while it mourns. 

I think Russia is still capable of invading and occupying a neighboring country as long as it isn't shooting back at them. 

I also know that sounds a bit farfetched and maybe a little paranoid.  The more likely, straightforward answer is that Lukashenko is just sick.  But at this point I can't put anything past Putin.

Lukashenko being simply sick is what I suspect as well. The guy is nearing 70, is overweight and has a stressful job.
I don't understand these guys. As soon as I'm of pensionable age I'd like to retire and take a holiday, not become dictator.

Some Cubans Prefer Death in Ukraine over Living Under Diaz-Canel

Cubans join Moscow's fighting forces in Ukraine after Putin promises citizenship (nypost.com)

If I had the option of lazing on Caribbean Beach over fighting a hopeless war in the snow, I know what I would pick. The money isn't bad,  but you have to live to spend it.


Russian Ambassador Becomes Passive/ Aggressive with the UK, on Eve of Counter Attacks Declares that; "we could have peace tomorrow".

War in Ukraine may get 'new dimension,' Russian ambassador warns (nypost.com)

It's the old "plata o plumo", neither is likely.




Russia Contributes Drone Light Show to Kiev Day

Russia drone attack on Ukraine's capital Kyiv kills one (nypost.com)