My wife was an exchange student in Finland when she was younger. I used to know where but I've forgotten now.  I'll have to ask her when she comes home from her trip. 

Quote from: fáwë on October 11, 2022, 02:07:50 PMThis happened yesterday. I live in one of the mentioned areas but I didn't see the phenomenon

https://yle.fi/news/3-12654458

Part of me is wondering (and hoping, I think) if it was a Russian attempt to verify "hey, we actually can launch our big scary missiles, right?"

The rest of me is concerned about what (if anything) they were trying to put in orbit, and what that might mean.

Reported

"All of these other methods of attack would be more logical for Russia to pursue" than a direct military attack on NATO facilities or use of a nuclear weapon, said Sean Monaghan, an analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies who previously served at the British Defense Ministry.

For one thing, Monaghan said, a Russian strike targeting a weapons supply route in a NATO country such as Poland would trigger the 30-member Western military alliance to respond.

"The war with Ukraine is not existential [for Russia]. It's a war of choice," he said. "A war with NATO would be existential."

https://www.faktisk.no/artikler/z25lo/satellittbilder-viser-11-strategiske-bombefly-20-mil-fra-norge

Norwegian article about Russia to move 11 tactical fighter planes to Kola Peninsula area near Norwegian and Finnish border. 

Quote from: NT2C on October 08, 2022, 11:38:29 AMI'm seeing reports of arrests of high-ranking military officers in Moscow.  I had previously seen reports and speculation that Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons might trigger a military coup.  Looks like Putin is worried about that too.  This could very well trigger action by others though so there may be some interesting changes in Russian leadership happening.

Any more news on this? The one story I saw said that an elite team was in charge of arresting the high-ranking officers.
Then....silence. Can't really find anything more.
Think Putin is culling those in the military bureaucracy that question his decisions in Ukraine?
"Night of the long knives" 2.0?

Quote from: Lambykins on October 12, 2022, 07:56:20 PM

Quote from: NT2C on October 08, 2022, 11:38:29 AMI'm seeing reports of arrests of high-ranking military officers in Moscow.  I had previously seen reports and speculation that Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons might trigger a military coup.  Looks like Putin is worried about that too.  This could very well trigger action by others though so there may be some interesting changes in Russian leadership happening.

Any more news on this? The one story I saw said that an elite team was in charge of arresting the high-ranking officers.
Then....silence. Can't really find anything more.
Think Putin is culling those in the military bureaucracy that question his decisions in Ukraine?
"Night of the long knives" 2.0?

That's my take on it with data I'm finding so far.

BBC news puts it like this:


"General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed General Armageddon, is President Vladimir Putin's new tactic in the war against Ukraine.

His appointment was announced hours after the attack on the Crimea bridge. And the new leader's first day at work saw Ukraine hit by a huge wave of Russian missiles - one of the widest series of strikes witnessed for months.

But Gen Surovikin is not actually new to the faltering war effort. He's been commanding troops on the front in southern Ukraine and, the day before the war began, was sanctioned by Europe for his military influence and relationship with President Putin.

This appears to be the first time Russia has officially named a commander for its entire military operation in Ukraine - before that, there were media reports that the post was held by General Alexander Dvornikov.
.......
Gen Surovikin started his active military career in Afghanistan in the late 1980s. This was in circumstances that were "extremely unfavourable", says Russian history and culture professor Peter Waldron - the Soviets were losing.

Prof Waldron suggests this shaped the general's character and reputation, as he was heavily involved in "considerable violence" from the off."


As he has recently exhibited again in Ukraine.

Quote from: Lambykins on October 12, 2022, 07:56:20 PM

Quote from: NT2C on October 08, 2022, 11:38:29 AMI'm seeing reports of arrests of high-ranking military officers in Moscow.  I had previously seen reports and speculation that Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons might trigger a military coup.  Looks like Putin is worried about that too.  This could very well trigger action by others though so there may be some interesting changes in Russian leadership happening.

Any more news on this? The one story I saw said that an elite team was in charge of arresting the high-ranking officers.
Then....silence. Can't really find anything more.
Think Putin is culling those in the military bureaucracy that question his decisions in Ukraine?
"Night of the long knives" 2.0?

I haven't seen any credible verification of arrests of high ranking officers to this point and the only significant change I've seen is the appointment of Surovikin.  For now, I'm going with "that was probably just a rumor".

Has anyone heard anything that indicates Western countries gave UA the OK to use donated Western long range artillery to hit targets in Russia?

Today a YouTuber in Ukraine that has consistently given very good quality updates on the war expressed the belief UA is using Western weapons to hit targets around Belgorod and the West is OK with it. I tried to Google for something to corroborate his belief and didn't find anything. 

I'm strongly leaning towards it not being true, but am open to being wrong and thought someone here might have seen something I'm missing.

Quote from: RoneKiln on October 16, 2022, 10:39:04 PMToday a YouTuber in Ukraine that has consistently given very good quality updates on the war expressed the belief UA is using Western weapons to hit targets around Belgorod and the West is OK with it. I tried to Google for something to corroborate his belief and didn't find anything.

I'm strongly leaning towards it not being true, but am open to being wrong and thought someone here might have seen something I'm missing.

CNN is reporting that one of the Russian drones downed over Kyiv had "for Belgorod" written on it. I'm inclined to believe reports that Ukraine is attacking military targets in Russian territory.  

As long as Ukraine doesn't physically invade Russian soil, fair's fair I say. 

Just catching up here ...

Quote from: RickOShea on October 01, 2022, 11:02:17 PMWelp, this certainly wasn't on my 2022 Bingo card....
https://signmyrocket.com/

If the Russians have mobilised 300k soldiers, then for $600M we could get these guys to blow them all up? Sounds like a bargain.

(Yes I know it doesn't scale like that, but even so ...)

I threw my bingo card away in 2020.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63601312
Russians retreat from Kherson

Crimea is now within HIMARS range

Russian missiles hit Poland near Ukrainian border

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3


Edited typos

Quote from: fáwë on November 15, 2022, 01:40:23 PMRussian missiles hit Poland near Ukrainian border

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3


Edited typos

This has the potential to go very askew, very quickly.  NATO will respond to this, they have to.  How much they respond will depend on if it is judged a deliberate act by Russia.  If it is, hold onto your hats folks.

As much as I love the Fallout series of games, I really, really don't want to play the real life version if things go sideways and Russia lets loose with their nukes.

I think there's a lot of discussion going on within NATO at this point and certain factions are pushing for a strong NATO response regardless, in the hopes that such a move would trigger a military coup in Russia.  The problem with that gamble is that it could just as easily push the Russian military, and Russian people, into complete solidarity with Putin as their leader, defending the Motherland from the "Nazis" again.

Quote from: NT2C on November 15, 2022, 04:40:49 PM

Quote from: fáwë on November 15, 2022, 01:40:23 PMRussian missiles hit Poland near Ukrainian border

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3


Edited typos

This has the potential to go very askew, very quickly.  NATO will respond to this, they have to.  How much they respond will depend on if it is judged a deliberate act by Russia.  If it is, hold onto your hats folks.

Yeah.

Yeah.

um umm umm


gdmfshcs

If the nightly news is any indication, we're leaning towards "Russia is notoriously inaccurate and didn't mean it".  My preference would be "Putin is a freaking reprobate seeing what he can get away with and needs a reprimand of some sort stronger than 'try to aim better'" but that, too, could have ramifications. 

Quote from: Anianna on November 15, 2022, 05:45:19 PMIf the nightly news is any indication, we're leaning towards "Russia is notoriously inaccurate and didn't mean it".  My preference would be "Putin is a freaking reprobate seeing what he can get away with and needs a reprimand of some sort stronger than 'try to aim better'" but that, too, could have ramifications. 

Putin is like a school bully picking on a smaller kid and seeing how much he can get away with before the smaller kid punches him in the throat.

And much like a school bully, Putin's reaction will be to play the victim and demand punishment on the person he was picking on.

Latest news reports indicate that two Polish citizens died as the result of of this missile strike. In my mind this raises the stakes considerably.  For the time being, I'm willing to consider the likelihood this was an errant missile (because as we all have learned, Russian "precision" weaponry sucks balls) or perhaps it's debris from a Ukrainian shoot down of said sucky Russian missile. 

Either way and as NT2C says, NATO has to respond. If it's determined to be unintentional, that reponse may only be the proverbial 'sternly worded protest'. But if it happens again or is judged to be deliberate, I imagine one possible response would be a gracious (and promptly accepted) Ukrainian invitation to NATO to set up some Patriot anti-missile batteries in Ukrainian territory.  Say 200 kilometers in front of the Polish border.

That seems quite sensible to me, but Putin will of course see that as a provocation that would require further Russian escalation.  If for no reason other than to save face, both domestically and on the international stage. Things could very quickly spiral out of control after that.

Here we are folks. We're now officially at the apex of a very slippery slope.