What is Old is New ...Possible Diesel Fuel Shortage - like 1974-75

Started by Raptor, May 19, 2022, 12:57:35 PM

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Raptor

There is a distinct possibility of a shortage of liquid fuel in 2022.
Quote"We've never seen inventories this low, particularly in the northeast. We haven't seen gasoline this low at this time of year in history," the analyst added.
With the hurricane season later in the year, "We might have a crisis this summer, I'm telling you," Sankey said.
There is a global shortage of refining capacity, and currently the energy world "is completely insane", he noted. 


Source:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Analyst-Warns-Of-A-Fuel-Shortage-Crisis-In-The-US.html

Additional references:
https://www.westernjournal.com/gas-stations-running-gas-pumps-reprogrammed-include-double-digit-price-per-gallon/

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2022051116099/top-truck-stop-loves-is-monitoring-diesel-supplies-amid-shortage-fears

As UFOZS'ers all know the last mile of almost everything is delivered by diesel trucks...including gasoline and diesel. So diesel fuel shortages will result in fewer deliveries and thus reduce products available.
There are many reasons behind this...US refinery capacity has been cut ~ 4.5% some due to regulatory issues others due to hurricane damage.
https://www.gulf-times.com/story/717142/Gasoline-diesel-jet-fuel-refining-capacity-too-low

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/gas-and-oil/u-s-closes-refineries-china-increases-its-refining-capacity/

Record exports of diesel fuel:
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/record_fuel_exports_from_usa_gulf_coast_drain_tanks-03-may-2022-168860-article/


Then there is this warning about power generation shortfalls.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electricity-shortage-warnings-grow-across-u-s-11652002380

QuoteFrom California to Texas to Indiana, electric-grid operators are warning that power-generating capacity is struggling to keep up with demand, a gap that could lead to rolling blackouts during heat waves or other peak periods as soon as this year.

It looks like it will be a long, hot & expensive summer.

Based upon my (granted pessimistic) opinion there is no way we will avoid high fuel prices and the inflation that this will drive even in a best case scenario. I do not even want to think about a worst case; of course look for the PTB to shift blame to anyone but themselves ... still we are the ones who will have deal with these issues.

There is IMO no quick fix to any of this even if the PTB were motivated to deal with this issue. It takes a decade to build a new refinery. It takes years to build pipelines to and from a refinery and it takes at least a year to get crude from a planned hole in the ground to the refinery.

So there we are.
YMMV   


Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

Lambykins

It's not just diesel fuel.
We had a preview today of how things will be...
Yesterday, a gas station about a mile up the road had a gas delivery go late on them. They ran out of gas...even the diesel. All of it. So, had no gas after 9am this morning
So, people being how they are...they continued down to the next station...the Shell station right across the street from the station I work at. They ran out of all their gas/diesel by 1pm today. And their tanker was late.
We were next.
OUR gas/diesel delivery arrived at 12:30pm today.On time!
When the Shell station ran out, the cars started coming across the street to us.
By 1:30 pm, we had lines...something we rarely have. It was exhausting. People were panicking a bit. Turns out, seven other stations in town were ALSO out of all fuel. Their tankers were all late (or simply no shows)as well.
A couple of businesses in town actually let employees leave work early to come get gas. And announced that the best bet was to come to our station. :eek1:
The late fuel delivery finally arrived at the Shell station at around 4pm. They immediately jacked their price by 10 cents a gallon.
People that would normally only put 30 to 40 bucks worth of gas in were filling up their tanks to the tune of $100 to $120.
Our gas is $4.45 a gallon right now. The Shell station jumped from $4.35 to $4.45 when they got the delivery.
Shadows of things to come, I guess...

Aut viam inveniam aut faciam

Raptor

Quote from: Lambykins on May 19, 2022, 11:27:22 PMThe late fuel delivery finally arrived at the Shell station at around 4pm. They immediately jacked their price by 10 cents a gallon.


Normal gas station routine is that whenever a new load of gasoline is delivered the price is changed by the on duty manager to whatever the per gallon price on the delivery invoice is plus their standard markup. Obviously the standard markup is different per station.

Yes fuel is delivered by diesel powered trucks...so no (or reduced) truck deliveries will mean a station can run out of fuel. 

Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

Raptor

https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/louisiana/new-orleans

A link to Gas Buddy in NOLA $3.89 per gallon is the best price locally.

 https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/mississippi/picayune

A MS city close to my farm...these are normally about $.05/gallon lower than NOLA
is at $4.09 for Reg and diesel is $5.19.
Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

12_Gauge_Chimp

Gas is around 4.19 to 4.27 a gallon in my AO. Diesel is closer to 5.30 or so depending on what gas station you go to.

KentuckyCarbine

great analysis - thanks for all the links. havent had time to read them all yet, but i will.
1. Focus on the task at hand
2. Pay attention and think things through

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