What's the opposite of winning hearts and minds? Because whatever that's called, it's the only thing Putin has managed to accomplish. He claims that the Ukrainian people are historically and culturally part of Russia. Well he can kiss that notion goodbye forever. Note to Comrade Vladimir: bombing the shit out of civilians and citizens who have the temerity to defend their homes is NOT a good way to win them over.

Quote from: majorhavoc on March 21, 2022, 12:58:36 PM
What's the opposite of winning hearts and minds?

The question of why and what did he think he would accomplish goes through my mind a lot.

I think he assumed that the operation would go like the Annexation of Crimea in 2014. Basically a walk in the park; over and done faster than anyone could do anything about it.

That would explain the invasion.
But if his true goal was security (i.e. a buffer between Russia and NATO) that goal does not make sense. Even with a vasal Ukraine that move puts the borders closer to NATO and not further away. Anyone can see that actions like that just make everyone else nervous and in reality more at risk.

For what it is worth I am very surprised (pleasantly so) by the level of Ukrainian resistance and I suspect Russia is also even more surprised.     

Quote from: Raptor on March 21, 2022, 01:48:12 PMFor what it is worth I am very surprised (pleasantly so) by the level of Ukrainian resistance and I suspect Russia is also even more surprised.

+1 to that; Ukraine is winning simply by virtue of not having lost yet.

What we don't know (and I hope we don't find out until after the Russians do) is whether Ukraine has enough trained troops to go on the counteroffensive and recapture their country. Territorials and irregulars can stonewall the Russian attack but do they have a maneuver army in reserve to turn this thing around?

Quote from: Raptor on March 21, 2022, 01:48:12 PM
But if his true goal was security (i.e. a buffer between Russia and NATO) that goal does not make sense. Even with a vasal Ukraine that move puts the borders closer to NATO and not further away. Anyone can see that actions like that just make everyone else nervous and in reality more at risk.

It was my understanding that's why NATO didn't readily accept Ukraine in the first place.  They were the buffer between NATO and Russia.  On top of Putin just having a hard on for Ukraine anyway, I think he's always been concerned that either Russia or NATO would eventually get Ukraine and he decided it was going to be him (I say him because I don't think this is so much about Russia as it is Putin and his followers).

Maybe not news to anyone around here, but I am impressed with the work Black Rifle Coffee Company is doing with their on the ground reporting in Ukraine.  I don't know if these are professional journalists, but they're doing a remarkable job bearing witness to how the war is affecting average Ukrainains.  Pretty amazing when you consider this is a fucking coffee bean company. 


https://youtu.be/8lb7uVC251M

There are reports that journalists are being actively hunted by the Russian military.  I hope these guys keep their heads down.

Quote from: Anianna on March 21, 2022, 05:02:10 PM

Quote from: Raptor on March 21, 2022, 01:48:12 PM
But if his true goal was security (i.e. a buffer between Russia and NATO) that goal does not make sense. Even with a vasal Ukraine that move puts the borders closer to NATO and not further away. Anyone can see that actions like that just make everyone else nervous and in reality more at risk.

It was my understanding that's why NATO didn't readily accept Ukraine in the first place.  They were the buffer between NATO and Russia.  On top of Putin just having a hard on for Ukraine anyway, I think he's always been concerned that either Russia or NATO would eventually get Ukraine and he decided it was going to be him (I say him because I don't think this is so much about Russia as it is Putin and his followers).

I believe there were additional reasons beyond that,although I'm sure that it was a consideration.  NATO has economic, political, and military requirements that countries have to meet before they'll be considered and IIRC, there were a number of areas which Ukraine needed to improve in order to become eligible.  For example, one thing that we tend to forget about right now is that Ukraine is the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe, being beaten out only by Russia:   https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020  That issue alone might be enough to disqualify them.

Quote from: EBuff75 on March 21, 2022, 09:14:45 PM

Quote from: Anianna on March 21, 2022, 05:02:10 PM

Quote from: Raptor on March 21, 2022, 01:48:12 PM
But if his true goal was security (i.e. a buffer between Russia and NATO) that goal does not make sense. Even with a vasal Ukraine that move puts the borders closer to NATO and not further away. Anyone can see that actions like that just make everyone else nervous and in reality more at risk.

It was my understanding that's why NATO didn't readily accept Ukraine in the first place.  They were the buffer between NATO and Russia.  On top of Putin just having a hard on for Ukraine anyway, I think he's always been concerned that either Russia or NATO would eventually get Ukraine and he decided it was going to be him (I say him because I don't think this is so much about Russia as it is Putin and his followers).

I believe there were additional reasons beyond that,although I'm sure that it was a consideration.  NATO has economic, political, and military requirements that countries have to meet before they'll be considered and IIRC, there were a number of areas which Ukraine needed to improve in order to become eligible.  For example, one thing that we tend to forget about right now is that Ukraine is the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe, being beaten out only by Russia:   https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020  That issue alone might be enough to disqualify them.

I believe their low CPI was due, at least in part, to their perceived ties to Russia, which is one reason why their score has slowly but steadily risen since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity and ultimate ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych who was seen as a Russian puppet.  If Putin believed that their rising score would encourage NATO to accept Ukraine, all the more reason for him to strike.  Ultimately, I think potential volatility with Russia played a much larger role in the decision to continue to exclude Ukraine from NATO, but I'm no expert. 

Quote from: Raptor on March 21, 2022, 01:48:12 PM

...
But if his true goal was security (i.e. a buffer between Russia and NATO) that goal does not make sense. Even with a vasal Ukraine that move puts the borders closer to NATO and not further away. Anyone can see that actions like that just make everyone else nervous and in reality more at risk.

It is about security, but it's not about a buffer state between the two. A NATO allied Ukraine would make Russia and Belarus indefensible. Belarus would be surrounded on three sides, and with few natural barriers there's no way the Russians could keep NATO from rolling straight through Kiev to Moscow. A Russian Vassal Ukraine would push the front all the way to the borders of Poland, with a relatively short border from Belarus to the north to the Carpathian Mountains in the South. It would also mean Ukrainian and Belarusian lands being destroyed, not Russian lands. Even getting a neutral Ukraine with a demilitarized border would give Russia a strategic victory, in spite of the poor performance of the Russian military.

Saw this pop up in a few places, but I can't speak to the authenticity of the report, so take the claims with a grain of salt.  If it is true, then Russia has had a staggering number of deaths/injuries thus far in the war:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10637425/Russia-loses-10-000-men-just-four-weeks-toll-Ukraine-invasion-revealed.html   

QuoteLast night's figures said 9,861 soldiers had died in Ukraine, with 16,153 injured. About 15,000 Soviet troops died in Afghanistan after the 1979 invasion – but that was over ten years.

Ukraine has put the Russian dead at 15,000 – but the latest figures are higher than US estimate of 7,000.

The death toll was part of an update from Moscow's defence ministry – and, while they were quickly removed from the website of Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-government tabloid, they remained on the archive last night.

Quote from: EBuff75 on March 22, 2022, 09:44:16 PM
Saw this pop up in a few places, but I can't speak to the authenticity of the report, so take the claims with a grain of salt.  If it is true, then Russia has had a staggering number of deaths/injuries thus far in the war:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10637425/Russia-loses-10-000-men-just-four-weeks-toll-Ukraine-invasion-revealed.html   

QuoteLast night's figures said 9,861 soldiers had died in Ukraine, with 16,153 injured. About 15,000 Soviet troops died in Afghanistan after the 1979 invasion – but that was over ten years.

Ukraine has put the Russian dead at 15,000 – but the latest figures are higher than US estimate of 7,000.

The death toll was part of an update from Moscow's defence ministry – and, while they were quickly removed from the website of Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-government tabloid, they remained on the archive last night.

Several of the MSM sources are reporting Russia's losses as a "10% loss in combat power" but I haven't taken the time to track down where that comes from.  I guess that covers troops, machines, and weapons rather than just some number of men lost. 

Whatever the accurate number is, it's a fucking tragedy.

The last number that I saw regarding KIAs claimed 14,500.

Quote from: NT2C on March 22, 2022, 10:29:34 PM
The last number that I saw regarding KIAs claimed 14,500.

I think that's around the number of deaths that Ukraine is claiming. No idea how accurate that claim is, but it's safe to say that Russia is taking huge losses.  Note that none of these articles state how many Russian soldiers have surrendered / been captured.  I haven't been able to find any good numbers in my Googling on this topic.  I've seen reports which are anywhere from a few hundred to several thousand. 

And now Russia is claiming that the figures of 10k killed and 16k injured were fake and were due to a hack:  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-newspaper-blames-army-death-toll-report-hackers-2022-03-22/

Quote from: EBuff75 on March 22, 2022, 10:50:26 PM
And now Russia is claiming that the figures of 10k killed and 16k injured were fake and were due to a hack:  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-newspaper-blames-army-death-toll-report-hackers-2022-03-22/

QuoteAlexander Gamov, a Kremlin correspondent for the paper, said on the same call that its website had been hacked and fake information had appeared there for several minutes.A search using the non-profit Internet Archive's Wayback Machine (archive.org) showed the figures had been visible on the Komsomolskaya Pravda website for six hours and 35 minutes between 1213 GMT and 1848 GMT on Monday.
The records show the article was then briefly inaccessible before reappearing at 1939 GMT without the casualty numbers.

Uh...huh.  Sure.  The rest of the article is completely accurate, but the numbers we forgot we weren't allowed to share were totally fake, because of hackers.
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

An acquaintance of mine is currently in Kyiv (dual citizen) and has been posting videos almost daily on FB regarding what is going on there and how he's trying to help people out.  I hadn't realized until today that he also has a TikTok account where the videos are publicly viewable.  Anton has been taking donations and is buying supplies to hand out (yes, I've sent some money to him).  He just posted a video on FB (doesn't look like it's up on TT yet) where he explains that running a business in Detroit prepared him for living in a war zone!  (I remember when this happened a few years ago) 

Some of what he's been posting are compilation videos of various local events and he does a pretty good job of differentiating between things which he can confirm and those which are just rumors.  Here's his TikTok page for anyone who is interested:  https://www.tiktok.com/@antonkirichenko1 

He's a good guy and I hope that he stays safe!

Quote from: EBuff75 on March 23, 2022, 02:29:41 PM
An acquaintance of mine is currently in Kyiv (dual citizen) and has been posting videos almost daily on FB regarding what is going on there and how he's trying to help people out.  I hadn't realized until today that he also has a TikTok account where the videos are publicly viewable.  Anton has been taking donations and is buying supplies to hand out (yes, I've sent some money to him).  He just posted a video on FB (doesn't look like it's up on TT yet) where he explains that running a business in Detroit prepared him for living in a war zone!  (I remember when this happened a few years ago) 

Some of what he's been posting are compilation videos of various local events and he does a pretty good job of differentiating between things which he can confirm and those which are just rumors.  Here's his TikTok page for anyone who is interested:  https://www.tiktok.com/@antonkirichenko1 

He's a good guy and I hope that he stays safe!

Please post info on how to donate to him for those of us who don't use FB or TikTok.  Does he have anything on YouTube or other platform?

(also, you should be able to post links to his stuff on FB or TT and they will auto-embed and display)

Quote from: NT2C on March 23, 2022, 03:00:49 PM

Quote from: EBuff75 on March 23, 2022, 02:29:41 PM
An acquaintance of mine is currently in Kyiv (dual citizen) and has been posting videos almost daily on FB regarding what is going on there and how he's trying to help people out.  I hadn't realized until today that he also has a TikTok account where the videos are publicly viewable.  Anton has been taking donations and is buying supplies to hand out (yes, I've sent some money to him).  He just posted a video on FB (doesn't look like it's up on TT yet) where he explains that running a business in Detroit prepared him for living in a war zone!  (I remember when this happened a few years ago) 

Some of what he's been posting are compilation videos of various local events and he does a pretty good job of differentiating between things which he can confirm and those which are just rumors.  Here's his TikTok page for anyone who is interested:  https://www.tiktok.com/@antonkirichenko1 

He's a good guy and I hope that he stays safe!

Please post info on how to donate to him for those of us who don't use FB or TikTok.  Does he have anything on YouTube or other platform?

(also, you should be able to post links to his stuff on FB or TT and they will auto-embed and display)

He's been posting quite a few videos and I didn't want to post individual links. Plus, some of them weren't shareable and I'm not sure what security settings he might have turned on for his FB account.  I think that the videos are all there on his TikTok page, and you don't need to have an account to watch them.  Just go to the link and click on whichever ones you want to watch.

Here's the list of donation links that he posted:

     To help us win a war against orcs please donate:
     PayPal: kirichenkoa1986@gmail.com
     Venmo: @totishe
     Cash app: $tony332200

FYI, if you're not familiar with it, the term "orcs" is how Ukrainians are refering to the Russian army - basically the vile army of invaders from Mordor. 

Apparently Russia has lost another general.  That makes six now: 

QuoteUkrainian army says Russian general has been killed in Kherson fighting
From CNN's Yulia Kesaieva in Lviv

The Ukrainian army says its forces have killed Russian Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezantsev during fighting in Chornobaiivka, in the Kherson region in Ukraine's south. The army said Rezantsez was commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation.

Russia's defense ministry has not commented on the Ukrainian claim.

So far, some six Russian generals are believed to have been killed since the start of Russia's assault on Ukraine, as well as a deputy commander of the Black Sea fleet.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-25-22/h_474504b422b84d41eef29e572c5e9420

I read somewhere that the reason so many Russian generals are at or near the front lines may have something to do with extraordinarily low troop morale and the need for high ranking officers to be there to gin up (or threaten) the rank and file.

Whatever the true reason Russian generals are dying in droves, I'm certainly not losing any sleep over it.

Quote from: majorhavoc on March 25, 2022, 02:51:53 PM
Whatever the true reason Russian generals are dying in droves, I'm certainly not losing any sleep over it.

Better them than a peon that has no idea why he's there, or any Ukrainian.