Undead Forums of ZS

I work at a grocery store.
We got problems.
Trucks are coming a day or two late, or not at all and our loads/orders are short.
1400 piece order?
We get 1100 if we are lucky.
Last truck to come in (today) had NO frozen and NO meat. No meat for the butcher, none for the deli, none for the prepared foods counter.
No supplies...no plastic bags (our state still allows them), no paper bags, no freezer bags for the ice cream.

What we have been told (officially) is that our suppliers can't get drivers for the trucks.
That really doesn't explain trucks coming in half empty.

Family Dollar in our town did not get in 4 of it's last 5 trucks.
The shelves there are damn near empty.
(Family Dollar is the "big box" store in our little town)

Keep an eye out on your local stores (grocery and otherwise).
Top up preps as your budget allows.

Thanks for the heads up.  We did let our stocks of some stuff get a little low recently, started fixing that just this week.

This is a bit of a remote area, so I guess we are outliers as far as the supply chain goes.
Gardens in the area are producing, so the boss gave the produce manager the go-ahead to start purchasing locally since the produce orders have been shorted recently, too.
Word is he has already been on the phone to the warehouse company we use in Connecticut and it doesn't look good.

I'd appreciate it if anyone out there that is noticing shortages in their AO could post on here.
Or if you are a truck driver, give us a heads up on what issues are going on.
Thanks!

I work for a major manufacturer and distributor. We don't do food but, Uh, yeah, :headbang:
Our plants need to receive materials and parts and assemblies and products to make products to then ship out to our distribution centers. Our distribution centers need to receive completed products and ship them out to our dealers.

We're seeing delays in every aspect of the supply chain, even the last mile.

World wide container crisis effects on both sides of manufacturing.

The manufacturers overseas can't get the parts or raw materials they need to make the parts we need, because of labor shortages, price increases, and container shortages, and there's to many containers in the western hemisphere and not enough near the mfr countries to move the materials to the plants.

When those manufactures do get the parts/materials; they still can't make anything because their storage areas are full of already completed product that can't ship out because there's no containers.

When they do get a container loaded with products there's a labor shortage to get the container from the plant to the port.

Once the container gets to the port it won't get loaded on a ship. Because the oceanic freight carriers are now extorting a 'premium' rate to load the containers. From China to US is about 4500 normally, now its $18k to $21k. 'Premium' rates do not guarantee your container gets loaded, just that it moves up the line in front of people who aren't paying premium. Can you say price increases or surcharges are coming?

Ships are having labor issues with the pandemic. Less ships are active. Port backups are increasing ship transit and turnaround times.

When the container does finally get loaded onto a ship, its destination port may suspend receipt for 30 -60 days due to backups offloading at the receiving port. At this point the ship may be able to reroute to an alternate port, but that port would be farther from where the freight needs to go causing additional transit delays.

Port delays offloading; some ports are backed up months to offload ships waiting. Waiting ships are not moving ships, less ships. Labor shortages to offload from ships and load onto trucks to deliver to destination or rail yards.

Once offloaded then the Oceanic carrier have to truck or rail to the consignee. If our containers have to be railed, they basically are untraceable for about a month after they leave the port for the rail yard. And we won't get an appointment until the container is loaded on the trains. Container trucks are delayed to a degree by region but that just means that our DC's near ports get containers deliveries a little late. Central and mountain location are screwed, mostly trains take containers to the center of the country.

Inventory levels low or b/o'd for months due to container crisis. Prices Rise.

Free market demand exceeds supply, prices go up on materials.

Material:

12 Month % Increase:

Corrugate

120%

Nylon

151%

PVC

131%

ABS

209%

Zinc

139%

Particle Board

120%

STEEL

300%

Ocean Freight

400%

Materials prices go up, product prices go up; Inflation.

Last Mile or LTL freight delays.
Labor issues mean slower load times
UPS used to be a 1 day transit to anywhere in Florida, now its 1-3 days.
Our LTL carriers that used to be next day anywhere in Florida are now 1-2 days.
Regional LTL add about a day.
Long haul FL carriers are still about the same transit but short on drivers so from the time the load is ready to pickup it might be an extra 1-5 days wait before it starts moving.

Manufacturing Stops or Stutters

Covid rules will shut down a plant floor if someone tests positive. The shutdown could be up to 2 weeks, delaying production on anything coming off that floor.
Materials and components shortages or b/o's will stop manufacturing and extend lead times on products effected.
Logistics delays will b/o materials and products stopping manufacturing if key components are not available.
Storage space limitations and delayed loading block new products being made until existing product is moved out.

Ive seen this at several stores in los angeles. Shelves with hardly anything on them. Fewer employees in the stores. One manager said they had a job fair. And no one showed up. I said how much are you paying. And he winced and said minimum wage. We both laughed. No one can live on minimum wage here. Or even the dreamed about 15 dollars.

Costco has been out of our canned dog food and paperplates for months. Kroger has certain items like cake mixes. Used to be a quarter of an aisle filled with them. Now its a 4 ft square. And half are missing. Reminds me of communism or something. Weird times.

I have not seen shortages but I have seen less product on the shelf.

For instance:
A cat food may have only the largest 40lb bag or the smallest 3.5lb bag on the shelf
The cleaning shelves are full but of off brand stuff that was obviously sourced through a different supply line. The Lysol and Clorox wipes are in stock but thin.
I have noticed that items I bought a week ago had the same best buy date as the ones I just bought which to me says they are pulling down their inventory so they do not have buy more at a higher price.

Prices here for food have gone up a lot in the last 3 months. By a lot I estimate that on average 10% for many items. Some have not changed but the ones that have increased, it has been a steep jump.

Fast food restaurants are back to drive through only due to labor shortages.

Filling job slots is tough even for decent jobs with benefits. It is not just about pay here.

Quote from: Raptor on July 29, 2021, 06:04:12 PM
I have not seen shortages but I have seen less product on the shelf.

For instance:
A cat food may have only the largest 40lb bag or the smallest 3.5lb bag on the shelf
The cleaning shelves are full but of off brand stuff that was obviously sourced through a different supply line. The Lysol and Clorox wipes are in stock but thin.
I have noticed that items I bought a week ago had the same best buy date as the ones I just bought which to me says they are pulling down their inventory so they do not have buy more at a higher price.

Prices here for food have gone up a lot in the last 3 months. By a lot I estimate that on average 10% for many items. So have not changed but the ones that have increased it has been a steep jump.

Fast food restaurants are back to drive through only due to labor shortages.

Filling job slots is tough even for decent jobs with benefits. It is not just about pay here.

I'm starting  to  see a lot of signs on store /restaurants entry's showing restricted hours due to lack of employees to man the shifts

So far, we seem...totally unaffected.  Fast-food places are staffed, the grocery store shelves are filled (or about as much as I'd expect on a Thursday evening).

I'm checking my stocks anyway, though.

It's a thing over here too.

I was in Lidl this morning (mostly buying croissants, they've got a good in-store bakery) and noticed they had no bottled water at all. Not still, not sparkling, not the budget brands, not the premium ones (well, premium for Lidl). Just an empty row where the pallets of water would normally be.

I spoke to a member of staff who was re-stocking the freezer and he simply said "we're out" then shrugged.

There was still soda, but those shelves were patchy.

If I was to guess: water is big and heavy, low profit margin and non-essential since everyone has a tap. If Lidl are short of trucks/drivers they could well choose to prioritise other goods over bottled water.

Quote from: Lambykins on July 29, 2021, 02:02:48 PM

What we have been told (officially) is that our suppliers can't get drivers for the trucks.
That really doesn't explain trucks coming in half empty.

Is that truck delivering to another store before getting to you?

The wife wanted KFC last night. They had a sign up saying due to the shortage of wings they are substituting thighs. We got our bucket home and see we have wings but no drumsticks but extra thighs.

Where i work a millwork company ( we use a lot of wood ) mid Atlantic area supply is slow coming in. Worker shortage has us like a  skeleton missing a few bones.

Quote from: RoneKiln on July 31, 2021, 08:47:34 AM

Quote from: Lambykins on July 29, 2021, 02:02:48 PM

What we have been told (officially) is that our suppliers can't get drivers for the trucks.
That really doesn't explain trucks coming in half empty.

Is that truck delivering to another store before getting to you?

No, this truck is dedicated run to us.
And we got TWO trucks today.
Because the trucks had been coming in late  (or not at all) and missing parts of our orders, every department head doubled down on orders for the truck arriving this morning.
Result...1750 pieces ordered. 1241 pieces delivered, which required two trucks.
Our dairy cooler is full, our produce cooler is full, our freezers are full, our meat locker is full.
But still over 500 pieces short on the order.
Another truck is supposed to arrive Monday.
(for those of you that don't know, a *piece* is not one item. It is a CASE of a particular item. For example, cheese comes in a box of 36 packages of bar cheese or 24 bags of shredded cheese. Milk is a milk crate with 4 gallons or 8 half gallons, etc. Canned goods are generally 24 per case and so on.)

With normal sales, a full dairy cooler is usually an empty dairy cooler within 5 to 7 days. Full meat cooler will last about the same. Produce will last 3 to 5 days.

So, everyone busted their butts today putting up the orders.
Truck arrived at 6 am.
At 6 pm, when I left work, some of the freight team was still there putting up merchandise.

The ongoing issues are hitting complex goods really hard, like automobiles.  My sister recently had her car stolen and I am trying to help her shop for a new one.  Used cars prices today are often 25% higher than two years ago, which is nuts.  New cars are sold before they hit the lot.  Car dealers that normally have 250 cars on the lot have 45 cars and they are almost all higher end models.  Her insurance covered a rental, but the rental company had no cars.  She doesn't have much money to spend and is really in a tough spot.

As an example, 4 local Honda dealers showed on their website Saturday morning they had a new base model of what she was looking for.  At each, that model had been sold before it even hit their lot and the best they could say is "put a deposit down now and you'll get first dibs at whatever doesn't already have a deposit on it, and it should come in in the next 3-6 weeks".

One dealer has a used Honda Fit, 2017, base model with manual transmission, 48k miles for $16,500.  That's the same car my brother bought new in 2017, for $16,000.  A 4 year old car selling for more than a new one simply because there is so little inventory. And that's what we keep seeing- 2 and 3 year old used cars selling for over MSRP of a brand new model.  Used car prices had a run this year where they increased in price 24 weeks in a row.  It puts her in a really rough spot, where she is going to have to spend more than she wants to get way less of a car than she could have a year ago. 

Quote from: PistolPete on August 01, 2021, 10:37:50 AM
The ongoing issues are hitting complex goods really hard, like automobiles.  My sister recently had her car stolen and I am trying to help her shop for a new one.  Used cars prices today are often 25% higher than two years ago, which is nuts.  New cars are sold before they hit the lot.  Car dealers that normally have 250 cars on the lot have 45 cars and they are almost all higher end models.  Her insurance covered a rental, but the rental company had no cars.  She doesn't have much money to spend and is really in a tough spot.

As an example, 4 local Honda dealers showed on their website Saturday morning they had a new base model of what she was looking for.  At each, that model had been sold before it even hit their lot and the best they could say is "put a deposit down now and you'll get first dibs at whatever doesn't already have a deposit on it, and it should come in in the next 3-6 weeks".

One dealer has a used Honda Fit, 2017, base model with manual transmission, 48k miles for $16,500.  That's the same car my brother bought new in 2017, for $16,000.  A 4 year old car selling for more than a new one simply because there is so little inventory. And that's what we keep seeing- 2 and 3 year old used cars selling for over MSRP of a brand new model.  Used car prices had a run this year where they increased in price 24 weeks in a row.  It puts her in a really rough spot, where she is going to have to spend more than she wants to get way less of a car than she could have a year ago.

Unfortunately, it looks like the tight market for cars is going to go well into 2022, so this isn't going away for a while yet (the lead time for cars is very long, due to the complexity of the supply chain).  What that might mean is being more flexible in how/what you're shopping for in the meantime. 

That might mean looking at used instead of new, standalone used car dealers (such as Enterprise Car Sales, since you're located in their hometown) rather than just OEM dealerships, considering a wider array of vehicles (looking for a Honda, but also considering Kia, Nissan, Ford, or looking at cars, hatchbacks, SUVs, etc.), looking at vehicles which are farther away, or even considering "temporary" cars which are older & high-miles, but much cheaper. 

Large used car chains (Enterprise Car Sales, Carvana, CarMax, AutoNation, etc.) will sometimes ship cars between dealers, which means being able to shop for specific vehicles, or at a greater distance to find something.  The drawback to used cars is obviously that they may have little/no warranty left on them.  The option there would be to purchase an "extended warranty" (technically it's a service contract, since a warranty is only something which is included as part of the original sale as a no-cost item from the manufacturer) for peace of mind.  Or you can just take the chance that most modern cars are pretty reliable and go without (that's what I've always done). 

Interesting side note:  I live in the Detroit area, which hasn't seen as big of an impact, at least not among the domestic auto manufacturers.  My parents visited from Ohio this weekend and they were surprised that the dealers here still have nearly full lots.  They told me that most of the dealers near them in Ohio have just a handful of cars for sale.  I did mention that the local dealers typically have even more vehicles than what are on the lots (they frequently have large holding areas which are located elsewhere which they can draw from) and that, for them, this is considered very low supply.  The Chevy dealer near me is one of the largest in the country, so "only" having 300-400 new cars (plus another few hundred used) is just about armageddon as far as they're concerned! 

Vaguely related, one of the farming channels I watch mentioned that they sold their peas at $7/bu, $3 over about normal....but now peas are at $14/bu.

Food prices might go up quite a bit, depending on commercial reserves.

I just got back from the local HEB.  Shelves were perhaps 2/3 full, with the usual suspects lower; however it was also EOD on a Sunday--which is usually their second-busiest day--so I'm not sure that indicates supply issues so much as the fact that bulk restocking doesn't take place until around 2200.

My roommate got a call this morning. She is head of the dairy department (temporarily, manager is on vacation).
They told her to take the day off and come to work tomorrow (her normal day off) because the truck is not coming today after all.
And so it goes on...

Yesterday I went to get oil for my car (Mobil-1 0w20) and Walmart was completely sold out.  In fact, about half the shelves where they carry Mobil-1 were empty.  Walmart has a special contract with Mobil and is one of the only places that carry their product in the larger 5 quart jugs.  I have never seen them sold out of so many options before. 

Luckily they still had that brand in 5w20 and 0w30, which are acceptable substitutes for summer use.  I'll have to keep my eye out for the proper weight before my next oil change though.

Well, we finally got an answer to "why no drivers" bringing our orders up from the warehouse facility in Connecticut...
Seems there is an Amazon distribution center nearby and they are recruiting our suppliers drivers.
Amazon pays better and has benefits our distributor doesn't have, etc., so a lot of the drivers jumped ship to Amazon.

Quote from: Lambykins on August 02, 2021, 06:38:39 PM
Well, we finally got an answer to "why no drivers" bringing our orders up from the warehouse facility in Connecticut...
Seems there is an Amazon distribution center nearby and they are recruiting our suppliers drivers.
Amazon pays better and has benefits our distributor doesn't have, etc., so a lot of the drivers jumped ship to Amazon.

They may find the working experience with Amazon is less enticing than it seems.  They have a reputation as a sweatshop that uses up workers and spits them out.  In fact, their new HR system for drivers is entirely automated- if you don't make your numbers you get a text message letting you know you've been terminated.  Drivers have stories about having to speed, run stop signs and keep a pee bottle in their van just to make their delivery times to maintain their job.  For a lot of people that extra $2 an hour isn't worth that level of stress.

Quote from: PistolPete on August 04, 2021, 09:27:55 AM

Quote from: Lambykins on August 02, 2021, 06:38:39 PM
Well, we finally got an answer to "why no drivers" bringing our orders up from the warehouse facility in Connecticut...
Seems there is an Amazon distribution center nearby and they are recruiting our suppliers drivers.
Amazon pays better and has benefits our distributor doesn't have, etc., so a lot of the drivers jumped ship to Amazon.

They may find the working experience with Amazon is less enticing than it seems.  They have a reputation as a sweatshop that uses up workers and spits them out.  In fact, their new HR system for drivers is entirely automated- if you don't make your numbers you get a text message letting you know you've been terminated.  Drivers have stories about having to speed, run stop signs and keep a pee bottle in their van just to make their delivery times to maintain their job.  For a lot of people that extra $2 an hour isn't worth that level of stress.

Your talking about the drivers delivering to the endusers? Its a different license to drive those little grey trucks to deliver to endusers vs the semi trailers to transfer between distribution centers.

I would expect the CDL drivers delivering the groceries would not want to downgrade to a glorified pizza delivery job. And distribution drivers wouldn't have daily delivery quotas. But IDK if they have the same hiring and contact practices for the distribution drivers vs their last mile drivers.

Quote from: MacWa77ace on August 04, 2021, 10:31:02 AM
Your talking about the drivers delivering to the endusers? Its a different license to drive those little grey trucks to deliver to endusers vs the semi trailers to transfer between distribution centers.

I would expect the CDL drivers delivering the groceries would not want to downgrade to a glorified pizza delivery job. And distribution drivers wouldn't have daily delivery quotas. But IDK if they have the same hiring and contact practices for the distribution drivers vs their last mile drivers.

It's a limited pool, but the one OTR driver I know took a Amazon job because it looked like more money and he got to be home every night for his kids.  Granted, there seems to be some marital friction which may be a factor for him as well.

But in general, I think you are correct, Amazon isn't stealing CDL's to be local delivery drivers.

Quote from: PistolPete on August 04, 2021, 10:39:11 AM

Quote from: MacWa77ace on August 04, 2021, 10:31:02 AM
Your talking about the drivers delivering to the endusers? Its a different license to drive those little grey trucks to deliver to endusers vs the semi trailers to transfer between distribution centers.

I would expect the CDL drivers delivering the groceries would not want to downgrade to a glorified pizza delivery job. And distribution drivers wouldn't have daily delivery quotas. But IDK if they have the same hiring and contact practices for the distribution drivers vs their last mile drivers.

It's a limited pool, but the one OTR driver I know took a Amazon job because it looked like more money and he got to be home every night for his kids.  Granted, there seems to be some marital friction which may be a factor for him as well.

But in general, I think you are correct, Amazon isn't stealing CDL's to be local delivery drivers.

There is an Amazon hub place in Connecticut near the warehouse and they do send out some big loads/trucks. I dunno, am not going down there to check it out.

More delivery woes at the store:
Our Monday truck didn't come in until Tuesday and was woefully short.
Wednesday truck didn't come in at all and NOW they say we can only get a "replenishment" order, no back stock. That will arrive Friday and we won't get a weekend truck. So, next order will be here Monday (maybe).
Plus, cherry on top, the distributor charged the store for our full orders and deliveries that we didn't even get!
Lance wasn't at work today and the rumor mill has it that he headed down to our distributors head office in Connecticut.

Ouch - that sounds like a distribution issue. 
Just ordered my next truck for Wednesday.  ~300 pieces maybe 350 when combined with produce.  Only 2 exceptions on the list and they are both dairy (Yogurt and Ranch cups) and only reserve 1 day out.  No notifications from my milk supplier on any issues and I expect to order ~150gal of milk (In pints) for delivery on Wednesday, and every other day for the next 9 months or so.  :)  Of course things may change between now and Wednesday morning, but that's where we are.
The issues we've been seeing locally are all in distro.  to quote some of the excuses we've had:
"They couldn't find a truck to pick up the chicken from Tyson"
"They distro center is crazy short staffed - Only 45 people showed up to work out of over 100"
"XYZ plant is not currently producing that product and focusing on this product due to labor issues"
"More loads on less trucks"
(The last one works for me, since I tend to be the last stop on my route, and it often causes me to receive overtime since I'm a prostitute when $$ is concerned)  On the flip side of that, the distribution company is reimbursing all the overtime we spend waiting for trucks to deliver....

Quote from: PistolPete on August 04, 2021, 09:27:55 AM

They may find the working experience with Amazon is less enticing than it seems.  They have a reputation as a sweatshop that uses up workers and spits them out.

A poster I saw on Reddit claiming to be from an Amazon distribution center not vouching for it's authenticity but it is sure in lines with the stories I have read about them. The date written there is 6/29/21 so if correct 364 reportable incidents in 180 days...taking this at face value.

(https://preview.redd.it/l17pq1k6ome71.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=4220a9f79eb32bb6be092a9394ba180af3fd7c6c)

Quote from: Raptor on August 04, 2021, 03:58:29 PM

Quote from: PistolPete on August 04, 2021, 09:27:55 AM
]

They may find the working experience with Amazon is less enticing than it seems.  They have a reputation as a sweatshop that uses up workers and spits them out.

A poster I saw on Reddit claiming to be from an Amazon distribution center not vouching for it's authenticity but it is sure in lines with the stories I have read about them. The date written there is 6/29/21 so if correct 364 reportable incidents in 180 days...taking this at face value.

(https://preview.redd.it/l17pq1k6ome71.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=4220a9f79eb32bb6be092a9394ba180af3fd7c6c)

Holy Fuck!
That's a LOT of injuries!
Here's the best safety sign we have at work (and yeah, I bought it and put it up).

Quote from: Lambykins on August 04, 2021, 04:23:42 PM

Quote from: Raptor on August 04, 2021, 03:58:29 PM

Quote from: PistolPete on August 04, 2021, 09:27:55 AM
]

They may find the working experience with Amazon is less enticing than it seems.  They have a reputation as a sweatshop that uses up workers and spits them out.

A poster I saw on Reddit claiming to be from an Amazon distribution center not vouching for it's authenticity but it is sure in lines with the stories I have read about them. The date written there is 6/29/21 so if correct 364 reportable incidents in 180 days...taking this at face value.

(https://preview.redd.it/l17pq1k6ome71.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=4220a9f79eb32bb6be092a9394ba180af3fd7c6c)

Holy Fuck!
That's a LOT of injuries!
Here's the best safety sign we have at work (and yeah, I bought it and put it up).

Hmm maybe it would safer to work around velociraptors than an Amazon AI distribution bot.

Quote from: Lambykins on August 04, 2021, 04:23:42 PM

Quote from: Raptor on August 04, 2021, 03:58:29 PM

Quote from: PistolPete on August 04, 2021, 09:27:55 AM
]

They may find the working experience with Amazon is less enticing than it seems.  They have a reputation as a sweatshop that uses up workers and spits them out.

A poster I saw on Reddit claiming to be from an Amazon distribution center not vouching for it's authenticity but it is sure in lines with the stories I have read about them. The date written there is 6/29/21 so if correct 364 reportable incidents in 180 days...taking this at face value.

(https://preview.redd.it/l17pq1k6ome71.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=4220a9f79eb32bb6be092a9394ba180af3fd7c6c)

Holy Fuck!
That's a LOT of injuries!
Here's the best safety sign we have at work (and yeah, I bought it and put it up).

This is what we have to deal with here.

This one is in the GM's office
(https://i.imgur.com/6lGDzJ7.png)

This one is mine
(https://i.imgur.com/72tUIPz.png)

Personally, I can't remember the time someone was injured @ work :smiley_knipoog:

Shortage of...the most non-essentials are showing up here.  No motor oil is scary, imo.  That's a critical item, again, imo. :eek1:

Quote from: MPMalloy on August 05, 2021, 05:57:25 PM
No motor oil is scary, imo.  That's a critical item, again, imo. :eek1:

I suppose it's a good thing I have 5qts left from my old pickup in the garage.  :|

I order my groceries online and the order have either been full or mostly full.  After about 6PM, the convenience store up the block has about 25% of the shelf space is bear-nekkid.

Welp...word from our distributor...
Each department now has a limit on how many items they can order.
For example, grocery is capped at 650 pieces.
What they didn't tell us is they folded frozen foods into the grocery category.
But the way they worded it, everyone thought that frozen had 150 pieces and grocery had 650.
What they meant was frozen got 150 of grocery's 650.
So, grocery manager put in his order first, frozen put his order in second.
Frozen got NOTHING on the truck.
During a big ice cream sale. In hot weather.
Yeah, lots of rain checks being handed out.
It's expected to stay at these piece limits until the end of September.
After that...who knows?

Quote from: Lambykins on August 08, 2021, 04:52:10 PM

What they didn't tell us is they folded frozen foods into the grocery category.
So, grocery manager put in his order first, frozen put his order in second.
Frozen got NOTHING on the truck.

Well at least that explains part of the issue.

Major food distributor Sysco is halting deliveries to a number of restaurants in Kansas citing labor shortages in the industry.



https://www.kwch.com/2021/08/03/sysco-food-distributor-halts-service-impacting-kansas-restaurants/


I can't find at the article at the moment , but I read that  restaurants that were still receiving deliveries had stepped up to help  by ordering supplies for those who had their orders halted

Not exactly EOTWAWKI stuff but ...
there are 3 fast food places near my home. A Wendy's ,Arby's & a MickyD. I really do not frequent either but I did go to the Wendy's for a Frosty. There is normally a drive through line at all 3 but not tonight. I pulled up the order box and they were out of burgers (all burgers), salads, chicken nuggets, all soft drinks except Sprite and chili. So basically french fries and chicken sandwiches and sprite was all they had. 

They said there waiting for the truck.

I am guessing that the other 3 had similar issues since there was not the usual line.

Transport seems to be a common theme in all of these matters.   

So far things are still looking good here, but I think I'll double-check everything and stock up this week, just in case.  :|

Quote from: flybynight on August 08, 2021, 08:15:04 PM

Major food distributor Sysco is halting deliveries to a number of restaurants in Kansas citing labor shortages in the industry.
https://www.kwch.com/2021/08/03/sysco-food-distributor-halts-service-impacting-kansas-restaurants/
I can't find at the article at the moment , but I read that  restaurants that were still receiving deliveries had stepped up to help  by ordering supplies for those who had their orders halted

I can see this working.  The restaurants will receive and act as middle-men to get the product.  Saves driver time, labor, etc. 
I havent been notified of any shortages on my weekly order.. yet. But I run my stuff through US Foods as Sysco is the spawn of satan 

I need to stop jinxing myself...

My order today was short more than half the items, all of which would be considered essential.  Meat, bread, veg....

 A Family Dollar store in Nebraska is back open Monday, after having a sign on its door the previous day indicating everyone had quit.

KOLN reported the store located near 48th Street and Leighton Avenue was closed on Sunday with this message posted on the entrance: "We all quit. Sorry for the inconvenience."



https://www.wibw.com/2021/08/09/employees-put-up-sign-saying-they-all-quit-family-dollar-nebraska/

An August 4 2021 article dealing with  maritime shipping issues.

https://www.nasaships.com/shipping-alerts-for-august-4-2021/
These are short term disruptions at the ports for imported goods.

QuoteUS Port, Intermodal, Drayage and Trucking Outlook
​​​​​Port congestion remains high on the US West Coast and Vancouver as well as hot spots in Norfolk and Savannah.  Houston port terminals are back online after an unexpected closure from a network hardware failure, this is spilling over to the chassis supply in New Orleans.

This article in addition to well known driver shortages mentions this:
https://www.dcvelocity.com/articles/51884-trucking-outlook-tough-road-ahead-for-shippers-carriers

QuoteContinuing challenges in the supply chain and uncertainty about consumption trends and economic growth remain. "Throughout the pandemic, we've seen how chaos and uncertainty can impact the supply chain," according to the report. "Disruptions have impacted capacity, which impacts fleet productivity, which in turn exacerbates overall supply chain volatility. Retail inventories are still well below normal for this time of the year, and government research indicates inventory drawdowns in the face of labor and materials shortages. As more restaurants and in-person activities open, consumer spending could shift back to services and experiences, even as the leisure and hospitality sectors struggle to fill jobs."

What we are seeing in my opinion is actually several forces at work.
The transport issue of which a large portion is a labor shortage issue.
The general shortages of production capacity in several sectors that are likewise affected by labor shortages.
The final issue is that companies and scaled down orders during 2020 because of a change in demand. They had inventory on hand and was trying to get it out the door to get cash to stay afloat and survive. They continued to keep orders at a lower level while shipping times suddenly increased ~ 2x so they are left with less inventory to distribute as well as trucking issues that exacerbated shipping time.

I've been told US Foods is hiring CDL drivers and offering a $15k sign on bonus...
$$Bills y'all...

On the subject of truckdrivers...
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/us-xpress-ceo-driver-shortage-trucking-industry-202632404.html (https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/us-xpress-ceo-driver-shortage-trucking-industry-202632404.html)

I took up a subscription to Forward Observer a month ago.  Coverage to this topic & others is Excellent, imo.

$9.99/mo or $99/yr.

China just shut in another major port over "Covid".

I also note that Food Stamp payments ae going up 25% - what does that say?

Buy any LTS Chow you want now while you can still find/afford to pay for it....

I went to a local restaurant over the weekend with my sweetie and they were out of salads.  The waitress said their produce delivery never made it.  What a shame, because this time of year produce should be in bounty.

Quote from: PistolPete on August 16, 2021, 07:12:14 PM
I went to a local restaurant over the weekend with my sweetie and they were out of salads.  The waitress said their produce delivery never made it.  What a shame, because this time of year produce should be in bounty.

Same thing has been happening up here.
A lot of the restaurants are buying from us (Lance gives them a discount) and some are going directly to local farmers. The store is also buying local produce as the trucks have been coming in woefully short.

Only shortage I've seen in my area is ammo.

Quote from: RoneKiln on August 17, 2021, 12:58:40 AM
Only shortage I've seen in my area is ammo.

Our local gun shop has the same issue.
Ammo they ordered in January is just now arriving.

COMMODITIES

Covid-19 Lockdowns in Asia Deepen Commodity Supply-Chain Pain (https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-lockdowns-in-asia-deepen-commodity-supply-chain-pain-11631871002)

The recent surge in Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia has throttled ports and locked down plantations and processors, sparking extended disruptions of raw materials.

"These supply shocks reverberate globally because Vietnam and Malaysia hold large market share of key commodities."

Restrictions in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer of palm oil, have prevented migrant laborers from traveling to plantations, raising prices of the ubiquitous edible oil used to make candy bars, shampoo and biofuel.

Lockdowns in Vietnam, the world's No. 2 coffee exporter by volume, have delayed the processing and export of coffee beans, adding to production concerns caused by poor weather in Brazil.

The 'global tin supply' has been hit by Covid-19-related interruptions at a smelter in Malaysia, contributing to higher prices for the industrial metal, which is used to connect computer chips to circuit boards in electronics.

Malaysia has recently been recording around 19,000 new cases and 400 deaths a day in its worst outbreak since the pandemic began. Travel restrictions in place since March last year have made it difficult for workers to reach plantations, leading to a steadily declining number of laborers.

Rigid internal-movement curbs put in place in recent months in response to rising cases have added to the challenges facing palm-oil companies, as have outbreaks on plantations, causing shutdowns.

Beginning in July, an outbreak in Vietnam prompted the government to introduce curbs on movement that have interfered with shipments. Vietnam is the world's largest exporter of the bitter-tasting robusta beans used in instant coffee and espresso blends.

Combined with frost in Brazil, the world's largest coffee exporter.

Malaysia Smelting Corp. Bhd., one of the world's largest producers of refined tin, reduced smelter staff and halted operations for stretches over the past several months to comply with government regulations to limit the spread of Covid-19.

Tin solder in consumer electronics, and supply disruptions due to lockdowns in tin-producing countries around the world.

Thanks for the notice on coffee. I'll stock that a little deeper tonight on my way home from class.

If it helps, I can drop the ordering notes I get from my produce ppl here:
example below:

September 19th thru 25th, 2021

Produce Notes and News

Quality, Availability and Price, What's going on?

Across the western U.S., down into Mexico and in the central and eastern U.S., growing/harvesting ongoing. All areas are experiencing their own unique growing conditions. Western areas are into weather patterns with varied pressure systems, variations in temperatures inland and in the desert regions, with some volatile weather and wind / rain due to coastal weather systems and seasonal fronts, Quality issues and supply gaps will occur. The East remains windy with great temperature variations and rain in the forecast. Quality range is wide, volume is down, and prices are higher. This will affect markets, volume, harvesting and growing operations throughout the U.S. harvest. Major flooding / storms / fires have affected some growing areas this year.

Fruit

Apples/Pears: Domestic supply increasing with new harvest, market higher with improved demand. Smaller sizes a bit tighter in supply, market higher. Gold Del Apples coming soon. Ginger golds now being packed. Granny Smith new crop being harvested. Pears: Domestic prices steady on lighter volume. WA supply very light. Domestic CA Bartlett harvest ongoing. Smaller sizes tight. Quality fairly good. Demand steady. Bosc Market firm. Watch for case weight changes and pack size changes. Inventory light. Note origins when receiving. Imports arriving. Domestic harvest volume was lower this year.

Avocadoes: Mexican harvest limited. Quality good, appearance fair. Markets higher as demand exceeds supply. California harvest ending, supplies tight. 48 size a bit higher.

Bananas: Supply tight with mostly good quality. Markets steady. Demand firm.

Strawberries: Over-all domestic quality fairly good. Volume lower due to heat issues. Market, demand rises. Domestic Blackberry supply, market steady, quality fairly good. Domestic Blueberry supply tighter. Market rises, quality mostly good. Demand exceeds supply. Watch Pack sizes closely on Blueberries, Blackberries, as several size packs are available with imports on markets. Labor issues are a challenge.

Citrus: Domestic Orange volume, quality fair. Market higher on heavier demand. Smaller sizes a bit tighter with firming markets. Navels finished. Valencia variety volume good. Quality, shelf life is fair. Domestic Lemon quality mostly good. Supply tighter on all sizes. Market higher. Larger sizes tighter on firming markets. Demand steady. Some imports on markets. Watch your origins. Lime import quality fair to good. Demand, market steady.

Grapes: Domestic white/green market easing on improved volume. Quality improves with steady demand. Red grapes in good supply and improved quality with an easing market. Mexican production decreasing fast with fair quality. Easing markets and improving volume on domestic CA red and white/green expected over the next few weeks.

Melons: Cantaloupe domestic supply in good volume, quality. Sizes running mostly large. Markets mostly steady, some higher. Mexican supply on markets. Demand is good. Honeydew Market is strong on light supply. Offshore / Central American melon imports end. Domestic/ import Watermelon market steady. Demand and availability good on seedless. Quality and volume good. Freight cost, logistics an ongoing issue.

Stone Fruit: Domestic Peach, Plum, Nectarine harvest/supply good with steady demand, prices. Smaller sizes scarce. Peaches approaching end of the domestic season.

Vegetables

Asparagus: Peruvian volume tighter. Demand steady. Mexico shipping into US with diminished quality and supplies. Market remains strong on limited volume, fair quality.

Bell Peppers: Western import green volume better this week on good quality. Market firm on steady demand. Red and yellow bells market steady, volume fair with fairly good quality, steady demand. Eastern Green Bell market firms on tighter volume. Demand steady.

Broccoli: Volume decreases. Quality mostly fair at best. Market stronger.

Cabbage: Market stronger. Domestic of good quality. Volume and demand steady. Brussel sprout market higher as demand exceeds supply. Volume tight with some quality issues.

Carrots: Market stronger. Volume tighter. Demand good. Domestic cello carrot quality mostly good on tighter volume, increased market, and demand. J-bo supplies fair. Demand strong. Mexican harvest still ongoing. TX harvesting. School pull strains volume.

Cauliflower: Volume tighter. Quality fair to good. Markets stronger.

Celery: Western, eastern domestic product volume improves, quality mostly good. Market pushed by increased demand.

Cucumbers: Western border crossings in fairly good volume and demand. Quality good on a variable market. Eastern and import volume improved with a steady market and good quality. Demand is heavy.

Green Onions: Import market leveling off. Quality improving. Variable sizing. Supply meets demand.

Leaf Lettuce/ Iceberg: Iceberg market strong on fair quality and volume. Demand exceeds supply. Leaf Lettuce / Romaine supplies showing some tip burn, markets higher. Demand strong on moderate volume. Leaf lettuce market rising. Quality fairly good. Demand strong.

Onions: Domestic Yellow, Red, White markets higher on mostly good quality, steady volume. Demand good. Larger sized onions in tighter supply. Mexican imports started.

Potatoes: Russet quality is mostly good. Demand steady. 40-80 ct and larger in better supply. Market steady. Red, Gold and White "A" potatoes market steady. Volume, quality good. Sweet potato market firm on good quality and demand. Larger sizes in tight supply.

Squash: Market expected to ease as volume builds out west and in the east on yellow and zucchini squash. Quality improving.

Tomatoes: East and West, markets steady on improved volume and moderate demand. Quality mostly good.

This is great data. Thank you!

Quote from: Raptor on September 19, 2021, 10:12:26 AMThis is great data. Thank you!

Big WOW :awesome:

BBC News - Gas price rise: US boss holds crisis gas talks with UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58615784

Natural gas prices are skyrocketing. Two US owned fertilizer plants have temporarily shut down as they are not economic to operate at these gas prices.
These 2 plants supply 60% of UK CO2 as a by-product. This is used in meat processing, coolant for nuclear reactors and medical gasses amongst other things.

TLDR; UK Gov may provide a subsidy to produce CO2 !

Over to you Greta.

You omitted a key user of co2 ... fountain drinks and carbonated beverages. :smiley_blink:

Amazing times in which we live. BTW CF Industries also has a plant in NOLA that produces alumina among other products.

A quick update on the containership stackup outside of LAX.
the green dots are cargo ships stopped or anchored. The green ship shaped items are cargo ships moving. If you click on them it will show course and speed and ship data. Many that are "underway" are moving at less than 1 knot indicating that are moving away from a potential conflict and resume drifting later. They simply "station keeping".

This site has real time AIS data and shows every vessel with AIS gear. (kinda like a transponder for airplanes but different it shows vessel name, position, course, speed and destination to anyone with the equipment to received it)   
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-109.2/centery:33.4/zoom:6

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/record-shattered-61-container-ships-stuck-waiting-off-california

QuoteThe number of container ships at anchor or drifting in San Pedro Bay off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has blown through all previous records.

The latest peak: There were an all-time-high 73 container ships in the queue in San Pedro Bay on Sunday, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California (the tally inched back to 69 on Tuesday). Of the ships offshore Sunday, 36 were forced to drift because anchorages were full.

Theoretically, the numbers — already surreally high — could go even higher than this. While designated anchorages are limited, the space for ships to safely drift offshore is not.

"There's lots of ocean for drifting — there's no limit," Capt. Kip Loutit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, told American Shipper.

Why is this important? Because even once all of these ships are of loaded. The containers (CCU) will have to be trucked (or put on rail cars) to be delivered to their destination. Even if these are transported by rail cars they have to driven by truck to the "last mile" then unloaded for further transport to the end users.

Truckers are already in short supply. They have a back log that is simply growing larger by the day.

That means further spot shortages and delays of any product produced overseas in Asia...which these days is basically everything.

The rail crash has closed a key freight line. There are alternates but this line is used to move coal to power plants.
https://apnews.com/article/amtrak-crash-montana-c8c3730849f568ca68b455eb23b49cef

A trucking issue that is occurring in the UK.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10031025/Boris-calls-Army-Hundreds-soldiers-scrambled-drive-fuel-trucks.html

Hopefully Sheddi will cast some light on the issue.
This problem appears to be exacerbated by panic buying which results in gas stations running out or limiting purchases which then further feeds the panic.

Plan accoridngly.

Quote from: Raptor on September 27, 2021, 12:15:44 PM
A trucking issue that is occurring in the UK.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10031025/Boris-calls-Army-Hundreds-soldiers-scrambled-drive-fuel-trucks.html

Hopefully Sheddi will cast some light on the issue.
This problem appears to be exacerbated by panic buying which results in gas stations running out or limiting purchases which then further feeds the panic.

Plan accordingly.

It's a combination of unforced errors, really.

• Commercial driving isn't seen as a career by many British people. The hours are long and unsocial, facilities at truck stops have seen little investment for decades and are poor and expensive when comparred to eg. France or Germany, salaries can be low (at least in hourly terms) and truckers are generally underappreciated. Talk of self-driving trucks doesn't convince people that it's a long-term job either. I've read recently that the average British truck driver is 55 years old.
• At the end of 2019 the UK finished leaving the EU. One of the claimed benefits was increased control over EU migrant labour. Business recognised that a significant number of hospitality/agricultural/logistics staff were seasonal migrants but the working visa schemes set up were lacking or absent.
• In spring 2020 COVID arrived. As part of the response, driver tuition and testing was suspended. This wasn't immediately recognised as a problem as logistic demands were decreased by a reduction in economic activity. (On a personal note it took me a couple of months to find somewhere to repeat my compulsory motorcycle training.)
• COVID restrictions went on much longer than expected. Driver training has really only resumed since this summer (ie. a 15 month gap). In that time probably 5% of the UK's truck drivers will have retired (average age 55, national pension age 65-ish).
• All through 2021 there have been reports of a shortage of truck drivers. Initially it was seen with huge logistics bottlenecks at the UK's international RORO ports as EU drivers were unable or unwilling to travel cross-border. Later is manifested as shortages of foodstuffs in supermarkets, building materials, lumber, steel, cement. Most recently it led to a major contractor for the UK's liquid fuel companies having insufficient drivers to keep all the gas stations in business.
• Reports broke late last week that a small number of gas stations had to close due to missed deliveries. The UK Gov't made a big announcement that there was plenty of fuel and no need to panic. The newspapers, inevitably, ran front-page stories focussing on the shortages (see this post (https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?topic=473.msg7257#msg7257)) which kicked off nationwide panic-buying of gasoline and diesel.
• Belatedly, the UK Govt has announced 5000 additional working visas for truck drivers. These are only 3 month duration and terminate on Christmas Eve. What they don;;t seem to have noticed is that the EU's economy has also picked up, there's a shortage of truck drivers there too and hardly anyone is going to uproot themselves and travel to the UK for 3 months work.

The effects have gone further than trucking too; there are reports of schools that can't get school bus drivers and waste haulage companies that can't get garbage truck drivers, as they've all taken jobs driving trucks instead.

Fundamentally there aren't enough qualified truck drivers in the UK to go around and there's more than a year's worth of driver training and testing to catch up with.

An anecdote for you. My son motorcycles to college every day. his scooter has a tiny tank (a little more than one gallon) and so he needs to fill up every week. There are two gas stations near his college; neither had fuel this morning when he arrived at college, and neither had fuel this afternoon when he left. The only other gas station on his route is a mile from home and he was lucky that they had fuel and had staff on the forecourt marshalling drivers. He managed to fill up within 15 minutes of arriving; when it was his turn he was sent to a pump, filled up, then instructed to leave the pump before paying (normally forbidden) and go park in front of the kiosk to make space for the next customer at the pump.

Personally, we've got food, fuel and TP for the foreseeable future but I suspect it's going to get worse before it gets better.

Edit: see a couple of posts further in this thread for some actual statistics rather than my guesses above.

Fully agree with Sheddi.

One thing to note. The businesses involved with things like food harvesting, truck driving and care homes all suffer from labour shortages. For the past few decades the response has been to employ more and more cheap foreign labour. Improving terms and conditions to attract locals was not on the agenda.

That's coming back to bite them.

There was a talking head on BBC Radio 4 earlier with some statistics:

• UK needs 375k truck drivers, had 300k in January 2020, currently 285k (a 5% drop, my wild-ass guess was accurate!)
• COVID lockdown prevented 45k truck driving tests being taken (but not all would have passed)

You can see that, in this context, 5000 additional short-term work visas aren't going to have a huge effect.

Quote from: sheddi on September 28, 2021, 06:40:01 AM
There was a talking head on BBC Radio 4 earlier with some statistics:

• UK needs 375k truck drivers, had 300k in January 2020, currently 285k (a 5% drop, my wild-ass guess was accurate!)
• COVID lockdown prevented 45k truck driving tests being taken (but not all would have passed)

You can see that, in this context, 5000 additional short-term work visas aren't going to have a huge effect.

Yes, based upon those #s 5,000 drivers is not a fix.

Now IF the 5,000 drivers were the UK equivalent of HAZMAT certified for tanker transport AND dedicated to fuel deliveries AND the drive time restrictions were relaxed they could likely improve that supply issue. That said  that is a lot of IFs & ANDs.

I would suggest that your son get a 5 gallon jerry can and fill it the next time he gets in line for petrol. If he is waiting in line he may as well maximize his time investment. I hope I am wrong but this does not sound like a quick fix any time soon.

In the 1970s when the US had it gas lines and shortages there was the initial panic and horrendous lines. The .gov tried using the odd/even day plan to help people reduce the lines and spread demand but that was dismal failure. What happened was everyone who normally drove around with 1/2 to 1/4 of a tank decided to drive around with a full tank. They would get in the line when the needle got to 3/4 of a tank. That made matters worse initially.

What happened was that people gradually got used to the fact that refueling took ~1 hour of waiting in line and adapted. Then when demand slacked the wait got shorter.

Supply and demand have to reach equilibrium for the lines to disappear and the lines are what is causing demand to spike.

This is getting fully scary to me. I don't know what I'm prepping for now. It's not just food and necessities to get me through a year's event anymore. It appears like it's going to start being  everything. I'm literally planning to collect hand-me-down laptops in case those chips that are in short supply cause prices to skyrocket past my ability to buy and my Kindle's break. And now I have to stuff another year supply of toilet paper into this tiny place? What else, just to be on the safe side. (she said rhetorically) There's such a huge domino effect going on worldwide.

It's silly I know but I've started remembering when it was just a deadly disease. In the olden days of a year ago? Life was much simpler then. Just stay alive.

The #2 post in the original ZombieSquad thread (https://www.zombiehunters.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=123740) about the mysterious SARS-like respiratory illness in Wuhan:

Quote@Woodsghost, Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:38 pm

People like to talk about wars and such. This is the type of stuff I think can actually cause a world wide problem.

Even that prophetic statement is becoming an understatement.

Quote from: Ever (Zombiepreparation) on October 03, 2021, 02:42:29 AM
This is getting fully scary to me. I don't know what I'm prepping for now. It's not just food and necessities to get me through a year's event anymore. It appears like it's going to start being  everything. I'm literally planning to collect hand-me-down laptops in case those chips that are in short supply cause prices to skyrocket past my ability to buy and my Kindle's break. And now I have to stuff another year supply of toilet paper into this tiny place? What else, just to be on the safe side. (she said rhetorically) There's such a huge domino effect going on worldwide.

It's silly I know but I've started remembering when it was just a deadly disease. In the olden days of a year ago? Life was much simpler then. Just stay alive.

The #2 post in the original ZombieSquad thread about the mysterious SARS-like respiratory illness in Wuhan:

Quote@Woodsghost, Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:38 pm

People like to talk about wars and such. This is the type of stuff I think can actually cause a world wide problem.

Even that prophetic statement is becoming an understatement.

Get outside and do something fun you've not done in forever.

It's easy for prepping to drift towards hoarding or paranoia. There may be times it's right to be paranoid and hoard stuff. But think about how perfect the last two years has been for breeding anxiety.

Do you really believe TP will vanish from stores for a whole year? Or do you think there will be intermittent periods it's hard to find? If you think it will be intermittent periods, you only need to stock enough to float through those periods. If you decide you do need to stock a years worth, don't do it from a place of anxiety. Get outside and enjoy life. Unwind and be healthy. Then decide from a place of calm what to stock and how much.

A spare laptop makes sense. Does a collection of them make sense?

I expanded my store of first aid supplies. That's it. I've also started Christmas shopping real early. I don't need more stuff, but I like giving people stuff late in December.

Crud. I just bought a truck and I need to equip it with a full kit equal to my car. Guess I do need some more stuff.

Thanks, @RoneKiln.

My business partner went to Best Buy today to look at fridges and noticed the store only had a few, top end computers. Nothing entry or mid-level. He asked the store manager about it and was told the computer pipeline is empty. They didn't know when they'd get more.
-Blast, planting beans!

Quote from: Ever (Zombiepreparation) on October 03, 2021, 02:42:29 AM
This is getting fully scary to me. I don't know what I'm prepping for now. It's not just food and necessities to get me through a year's event anymore. It appears like it's going to start being  everything. I'm literally planning to collect hand-me-down laptops in case those chips that are in short supply cause prices to skyrocket past my ability to buy and my Kindle's break. And now I have to stuff another year supply of toilet paper into this tiny place? What else, just to be on the safe side. (she said rhetorically) There's such a huge domino effect going on worldwide.

It's silly I know but I've started remembering when it was just a deadly disease. In the olden days of a year ago? Life was much simpler then. Just stay alive.

The #2 post in the original ZombieSquad thread (https://www.zombiehunters.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=123740) about the mysterious SARS-like respiratory illness in Wuhan:

Quote@Woodsghost, Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:38 pm

People like to talk about wars and such. This is the type of stuff I think can actually cause a world wide problem.

Even that prophetic statement is becoming an understatement.

In short, one has to become their own supply chain. But one cannot fully do that. The big Prepper delima. So what to do?

Pick a skill, or a few, get the tools to perform that skill  and practice practice practice. Have a skill people will always need and which can be performed in very low tech situations.

Distilling alcohol for personal or professional use?
Herbalism?
Small electronics repair?
Growing tomatoes in an apartment?
Small machine repair?
Welding?

Getting up in a tizzy and panicking is not useful.
Hoarding stuff is ok until one runs out of hoarded supplies. Then what? What is the resupply plan?

If skilled, one can resupply from those around you. If you know what to do with lightbulbs when they die, people will supply you with dead lightbulbs. Not for free of course, but that becomes part of your cost for repairing dead lightbulbs (give me enough currency that I can both feed myself and buy more raw products for repair).

Then we also prepare to live without. Without kindles, medications, foods, heat, air conditioning, whatever might be in short- or non- supply.

Prepping is not about "skipping out on being affected." Prepping is about "buying time and space to have a slower or more optimal transition to ongoing events."

So there are supply shortages. That sucks. They will probably get worse. So what do we do?

I'm trying to become less reliant on the current supply system. No one will ever totally escape, but we can lessen how hard the impact is on our lives. Survivors will adapt to the new and changing conditions and keep adapting. They won't be unaffected, they will adapt and roll with things as best they can.

I'm doing my best but I'm sure I'll be wrong in all sorts of areas. But the key is to keep adapting and keep rolling.

Among other things, I'm learning to identify plants again and use them for medicine. I'm learning to care for animals and raise them for food. I'm learning about gardening again. Most of my gardens have failed, but that just means I have more learning to do. I'm learning about food preservation.

I'm also getting out more with my family and building fun memories.

OK everyone take a deep breath...not everything every where is going to disappear. That said yes indeed we will see shortages and most likely of things that we do not expect.

I am seeing a bunch things that out of stock.
For instance I needed a simple replacement CCTV camera. I could find them cheap or not in stock...not both.

I did run across refubished intel i-5 laptops (16 gb & 552 SSD) at a decent (not great) price. That is what we will likely see more of refurbished and re-purposed gear for sale. 

However, here is what a good prepper needs to do:
Sit down and figure out what is truly needed. What is not. Concentrate your efforts on that which you truly need.

For example if you buy a lb of coffee a week then it makes sense to buy more coffee since it has a long shelf life.

Obviously that will not work with some items. It will work ok for other items.

The real thing to do is to try to build an alternate supply network for needed goods and services. Be prepared to trade some items for the ability to obtain other items.

Things produced in the US/Mexico/Canada will be easier to source than those produced in the PRC...(yeah I know that ain't much). However food like rice, potatoes, beef, pork many fruits and veggies are still grown in the US. Focus on your needs and figure out who and where they are made.   

Ever, you've been on top of food and sundries preps for almost two years now.  Re stock as you use and when you find good prices. As far as the technology items. I notice Amazon now has payment plans for kindles with no fees or interest.

Quote from: flybynight on October 06, 2021, 05:57:19 PMEver, you've been on top of food and sundries preps for almost two years now.  Re stock as you use and when you find good prices. As far as the technology items. I notice Amazon now has payment plans for kindles with no fees or interest.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is really taking off.

Quote from: MPMalloy on October 06, 2021, 10:37:23 PM

Quote from: flybynight on October 06, 2021, 05:57:19 PMEver, you've been on top of food and sundries preps for almost two years now.  Re stock as you use and when you find good prices. As far as the technology items. I notice Amazon now has payment plans for kindles with no fees or interest.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is really taking off.

BNPL is a good strategy as long as it is interest free.

BTW the sales you see on Kindles and similar items is the same reason Gillette gave away the razors but sold the razor blades. The Kindle is not the product but rather the gateway to sell more products... it is in effect the razor. 

My sweetie went to the shops today and discovered that Walmart was entirely out of cat litter.  Now that is a shortage I didn't expect.  Time to eat the cats!   :smiley_knipoog:

But from talking to a friend who works a job supporting the ports in Cali, be prepared for shortages to get worse and continue well into next year.  As well, if we see more firing from vaccine mandates that's going to create longer waits in the service industry and more shortages of every day products.  This is going to create a market opportunity for people who fix things, like computers, phones, washing machines, freezers, etc.  If you are concerned about the line of work you are in now, it could be a nice time to move to something like that. 

Quote from: PistolPete on October 08, 2021, 02:44:45 PM
My sweetie went to the shops today and discovered that Walmart was entirely out of cat litter.  Now that is a shortage I didn't expect.    :smiley_knipoog:

I have noticed kitty litter has been in short supply at WM for quite some time. I would note that much (Purina/ Nestles & Freshstep/Clorox) but not all of the kitty litter is produced in the US (in Wyoming & Montana). I suspect that that since it is a heavy & low profit margin item, it's restock priority is being bumped. I can source it elsewhere, sometimes at a better price.

Please do not eat the cats.

Quote from: PistolPete on October 08, 2021, 02:44:45 PM

But from talking to a friend who works a job supporting the ports in Cali, be prepared for shortages to get worse and continue well into next year.  As well, if we see more firing from vaccine mandates that's going to create longer waits in the service industry and more shortages of every day products.  This is going to create a market opportunity for people who fix things, like computers, phones, washing machines, freezers, etc.  If you are concerned about the line of work you are in now, it could be a nice time to move to something like that. 

This excellent advice. Anyone with basic or above carpentry skills is in great demand in my area to put up fences and fix roofs.

Quote from: Raptor on October 08, 2021, 03:05:37 PM

Quote from: PistolPete on October 08, 2021, 02:44:45 PMMy sweetie went to the shops today and discovered that Walmart was entirely out of cat litter.  Now that is a shortage I didn't expect.    :smiley_knipoog:

I have noticed kitty litter has been in short supply at WM for quite some time. I would note that much (Purina/ Nestles & Freshstep/Clorox) but not all of the kitty litter is produced in the US (in Wyoming & Montana). I suspect that that since it is a heavy & low profit margin item, it's restock priority is being bumped. I can source it elsewhere, sometimes at a better price.

Please do not eat the cats.

Quote from: PistolPete on October 08, 2021, 02:44:45 PM

But from talking to a friend who works a job supporting the ports in Cali, be prepared for shortages to get worse and continue well into next year.  As well, if we see more firing from vaccine mandates that's going to create longer waits in the service industry and more shortages of every day products.  This is going to create a market opportunity for people who fix things, like computers, phones, washing machines, freezers, etc.  If you are concerned about the line of work you are in now, it could be a nice time to move to something like that.

This excellent advice. Anyone with basic or above carpentry skills is in great demand in my area to put up fences and fix roofs.

Jobs that make or repair things usually do well; although one may not imply skill at the other.

Quote from: Raptor on October 08, 2021, 03:05:37 PM

Quote from: PistolPete on October 08, 2021, 02:44:45 PM
My sweetie went to the shops today and discovered that Walmart was entirely out of cat litter.  Now that is a shortage I didn't expect.    :smiley_knipoog:

I have noticed kitty litter has been in short supply at WM for quite some time. I would note that much (Purina/ Nestles & Freshstep/Clorox) but not all of the kitty litter is produced in the US (in Wyoming & Montana). I suspect that that since it is a heavy & low profit margin item, it's restock priority is being bumped. I can source it elsewhere, sometimes at a better price.

Please do not eat the cats.

Re: Kitty Litter

Alternatives
1) Sawdust/wood chips
2) Pellets for wood stove (I use this all the time, much cheaper, smells better and my cat likes it)
3) Play sand
4) Dry leaves shredded up a bit
5) Newspaper shredded up
6) Dry pine needles

Quote from: flybynight on October 06, 2021, 05:57:19 PM
Ever, you've been on top of food and sundries preps for almost two years now.  Re stock as you use and when you find good prices. As far as the technology items. I notice Amazon now has payment plans for kindles with no fees or interest.

Good councel.

Am also paying attention to my necessary items I use that are made elsewhere.

Like:
My mattress -> air mattress - > decades' preference -> Wal-Mart Ozark Trail made in Vietnam -> $8-$9 -> generally lasts 3-6 years.  I just bought three backups. Takes up almost no appreciable space.

My WaterPic. Which I believe the parts may be made here but assembled in PRC. ? ? So I bought a backup.

Just bought a third hand low quality laptop ->$10. It's probably worth at least $12, but it is a slim no space taking backup. Even if it only lasts for $10 worth of time if or when needed, it comforts me.

Today my focus was OTC meds, olive oil, & canola oil stock replacements.

Am finishing off the last of my thumbnail size freezer contents. When done I'll start batches of various flavors of scrambled eggs until it's filled for cold/flu/covid winter season. The half size ziplock containers stack perfectly, 4-5 eggs a container, enough containers & space for aprx 300+ frozen eggs.

I purposely walked my small Dillons to see what I could see regarding stock. Some sparse and empty places... especially Kroger brand. What's up with that I wonder? But nothing looking too off. Except water. They have been short or extremely low on water for at least a couple of months now. Do the containers come from out of country or something? Anyway, it's odd.

The store had lots of little temporary notices under many items stating the price was fixed (or something like that), making me wonder if when that particular stock was gone the price was going to make a jump.

Another thing that struck me was the increased number of shoppers wearing masks. And the children.  Teens -> no. Children -> yes.

👵

QuoteAm finishing off the last of my thumbnail size freezer contents. When done I'll start batches of various flavors of scrambled eggs until it's filled for cold/flu/covid winter season. The half size ziplock containers stack perfectly, 4-5 eggs a container, enough containers & space for aprx 300+ frozen eggs.

You would make Sissy proud :smiley_clap:

QuoteI purposely walked my small Dillons to see what I could see regarding stock. Some sparse and empty places... especially Kroger brand. What's up with that I wonder? But nothing looking too off. Except water. They have been short or extremely low on water for at least a couple of months now. Do the containers come from out of country or something? Anyway, it's odd.

From what I've heard , there is a shortage of plastic bottles. So  they might be made out side the country.
  As far as the Kroger brands in general. some of those items are made by other brand name companies . As an example  , if Kroger potato chips are made at the Frito Lay plant and Frito Lay is having production problems  just getting their own brand out. Who do you think is going to get shunted aside ?

QuoteThe store had lots of little temporary notices under many items stating the price was fixed (or something like that), making me wonder if when that particular stock was gone the price was going to make a jump.

Probably . It's hard not to wax political over how the price of everything has jumped in the last 10 months, But this is just Krogers P R attempt to reflect  how they are trying to hold the line on prices  for their shoppers in these trying  times we find ourselves in.

Quote from: flybynight on October 10, 2021, 07:32:10 AM

QuoteThe store had lots of little temporary notices under many items stating the price was fixed (or something like that), making me wonder if when that particular stock was gone the price was going to make a jump.

Probably . It's hard not to wax political over how the price of everything has jumped in the last 10 months, But this is just Krogers P R attempt to reflect  how they are trying to hold the line on prices  for their shoppers in these trying  times we find ourselves in.

The "price is fixed" is not clear to me.  I'm thinking this is *NOT* that one thing....

alot of grocery items have recently taken a giant leap up in price. An example two weeks  ago I noticed Hungry man tv dinners @ $5.35 ea. . Last week it was back on sale  @ $3.49  which is still about a buck more than sale price  a few months ago.
Everything seems to be rising in price and whether it's because of Covid fears and hoarding, supply chain issues , Presidential policy or moonbeams is moot at the checkstand.

  One's meal planning needs to be more flexible based on what you find at the store

 

Quote from: flybynight on October 10, 2021, 01:55:59 PMOne's meal planning needs to be more flexible based on what you find at the store

I hear my train a comin'

Latest item up here... plastic bags.
We are using paper bags until we can get plastic ones again.
We are one of the states that doesn't charge for plastic bags.

Quote from: Lambykins on October 14, 2021, 07:32:49 AM
Latest item up here... plastic bags.
We are using paper bags until we can get plastic ones again.
We are one of the states that doesn't charge for plastic bags.

Thanks for the heads up! I just went down to the building bag recycle container and snagged a couple dozen. Will repeat as it fills again until I get a good stash.

Just finished restocking my grocery bag preps. Tiny apartment so I use them for trash bags.  Fold them flat and I can get maybe 25 to a gallon ziplock and store in a small box in storage cage assigned to the apartment.  Have 11 ziplocks in storage backup & 1 ziplock in apartment.  So 12 if my small Dillons stops getting them for awhile.

Yesterday the store suddenly had dozen's' of the little blue Sorry, Out of Stock notices up all over the shelf stable part of the store.  And one big Supplier Problem, Don't Know When notice in the juice department.

This is an interesting article on a couple of aspects of the supply chain issue.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/10/26/supply-chain-ports-fees-biden

Will this shit EVER end?
If you like turkey for your holiday meals, especially if your target size is 10 to 15 pounds...if you see one, get it! Especially if you can find one at a reasonable price.
Meat Dept manager was informed last week that his order for turkeys will be cut to 40% of what he ordered last year AND the price will probably double, if not triple by Christmas.
Dairy Dept has had certain items put on their *limited* list: Philadelphia Cream Cheese, ALL pie crusts (the kind that you pull out of a box and they are just flat crusts ready to put in pie pan), certain types of cheese....
Grocery Manager Dept is pulling what little hair he has out...looks like Christmas candy is about to go on the limited list. So, he ordered a shit-ton of it...got a call back today that said he might get half.
And on and on it goes...

Lamby - If it helps, tell him to watch for the patterns, and he / they can sometimes slide an order in when the pressure is off.  I know at work, there is a definite pattern to when things are available (papergoods) etc.  and I've learned to order counter to the pattern.   

Quote from: Lambykins on October 14, 2021, 07:32:49 AM
Latest item up here... plastic bags.
We are using paper bags until we can get plastic ones again.
We are one of the states that doesn't charge for plastic bags.

I ordered two five quart jugs of motor oil from our local Walmart.  They both have handles.  They each arrived double-bagged.  Four completely unnecessary plastic bags.  So freaking wasteful.  Apparently, Walmart around here is not yet hurting for plastic bags.  The other stores I order from have always used paper, so I can't compare on that front.

Quote from: Anianna on October 29, 2021, 07:30:10 PM

Quote from: Lambykins on October 14, 2021, 07:32:49 AMLatest item up here... plastic bags.
We are using paper bags until we can get plastic ones again.
We are one of the states that doesn't charge for plastic bags.

I ordered two five quart jugs of motor oil from our local Walmart.  They both have handles.  They each arrived double-bagged.  Four completely unnecessary plastic bags.  So freaking wasteful.  Apparently, Walmart around here is not yet hurting for plastic bags.  The other stores I order from have always used paper, so I can't compare on that front.

Ani, what did you give for the oil & did you get any filters or such?

I'm finally seeing impacts in my area. I've been sheltered from most of it so far. Car prices are through the roof, but they have still easily been available if you're willing to pay stupid amounts of money.

Last week I finally saw gaps start to appear on shelves in the stores and prices jump. Not sure how much of the price jump is inflation vs supply chain disruptions. I know it's a combination.

Veggies were similar price to the week before.
Cheese jumped 60% in price in one week.
Bacon jumped similarly.
Chicken jumped 20%.
Fruit was hard for me to gauge due to normal seasonal price shifts hitting now.

Restaurant prices have jumped massively. I'd guess 40% or more. Not sure how much of that is from labor shortages. Servers are clearly overworked can't seem to get orders right. Luckily I've nkt seen anyone being a jerk to service people. Most people in my area seem pretty understanding.

I'm seeing more gaps in shelves again. For groceries, it's not a complete lack of products. It'll be certain sizes of packages or certain brands that are out.

In the hardware stores, I saw big gaps in various straps, bungee cords, etc. I also saw big gaps in smaller tool sets. If I want to buy a large shop size set of sockets and wrenches they have plenty. But if I want a small basic set for my vehicle kit or a gift to a kid, there's nothing. Nearly half an aisle of empty shelves.

Price of wood is still insane and real erratic as well.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/a-simple-piece-of-steel-and-wheels-is-holding-up-the-global-supply-chain-11635452843

I meant to include this in my last post.

Quote from: MPMalloy on October 31, 2021, 10:51:56 AM

Quote from: Anianna on October 29, 2021, 07:30:10 PM

Quote from: Lambykins on October 14, 2021, 07:32:49 AMLatest item up here... plastic bags.
We are using paper bags until we can get plastic ones again.
We are one of the states that doesn't charge for plastic bags.

I ordered two five quart jugs of motor oil from our local Walmart.  They both have handles.  They each arrived double-bagged.  Four completely unnecessary plastic bags.  So freaking wasteful.  Apparently, Walmart around here is not yet hurting for plastic bags.  The other stores I order from have always used paper, so I can't compare on that front.

Ani, what did you give for the oil & did you get any filters or such?

I didn't buy filters this time.  I keep extra oil for my husband's old car that tends to burn through it more quickly than our other cars.  I buy Valvoline full synthetic for high mileage cars and pretty sure it was just shy of $25 for the five quart.

Quote from: Anianna on November 09, 2021, 04:45:03 PM

Quote from: MPMalloy on October 31, 2021, 10:51:56 AM

Quote from: Anianna on October 29, 2021, 07:30:10 PM

Quote from: Lambykins on October 14, 2021, 07:32:49 AMLatest item up here... plastic bags.
We are using paper bags until we can get plastic ones again.  We are one of the states that doesn't charge for plastic bags.

I ordered two five quart jugs of motor oil from our local Walmart.  They both have handles.  They each arrived double-bagged.  Four completely unnecessary plastic bags.  So freaking wasteful.  Apparently, Walmart around here is not yet hurting for plastic bags.  The other stores I order from have always used paper, so I can't compare on that front.

Ani, what did you give for the oil & did you get any filters or such?

I didn't buy filters this time.  I keep extra oil for my husband's old car that tends to burn through it more quickly than our other cars.  I buy Valvoline full synthetic for high mileage cars and pretty sure it was just shy of $25 for the five quart.

Damn!

The latest things we can't get in my area are Tyson frozen chicken nuggets and chicken strips.  I can't find popcorn shrimp from any brand or breaded fish fillets that aren't beer battered (I just don't like the taste of the beer battered ones).  I can't get Tropicana brand OJ, but Simply Orange seems to be doing just fine at several stores.  I guess I'm going to have to stop being lazy and bread my own fish and shrimp.  The rest of it is stuff the kids want, so they can bread their own chicken and squeeze their own oranges.   :greenguy:

The stores we used to get steaks from seem to be having difficulty stocking the nicer cuts.  Everything is looking pathetic, so my husband tried a grocery store we don't go to because it's upscale and unnecessarily expensive.  He found the nicer steaks at not-so-nice prices.  I need the kids to move out so I can afford my husband's steak habit. 

Like Anianna, frozen chicken stuff last weekend was absent from the shelves.  A week before, it was salad dressings, before that it was TP, before that it was most soups, before that it was butter.  So a bunch of intermittent OOS items over the last few months.  It's kind of sad and scary at the same time when you have more of an item in your pantry at home, than the grocery does on it's shelves.

One of the stocker people I asked at a Hyvee, said they've only been receiving about 40-50% of what they order from suppliers.  I've heard from a few people I work with, Wally World has constant OOS items.


Being a Mtl. Mgr/Purchasing Agent right now is a nightmare.  I've had suppliers go from usual 3-5 day or 2-3 week delivery times, to now telling me 3+ months.  Steel has been hit or miss all year for various sizes and types.  One particular size I ordered in June, and just last week I was given a "firm" delivery for the end of November.


.

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on November 11, 2021, 11:56:33 AM

Being a Mtl. Mgr/Purchasing Agent right now is a nightmare.  I've had suppliers go from usual 3-5 day or 2-3 week delivery times, to now telling me 3+ months.  Steel has been hit or miss all year for various sizes and types.  One particular size I ordered in June, and just last week I was given a "firm" delivery for the end of November.


.

I have experienced that also. A simple chemical (sodium bromide) that is typically a phone call away is now in short supply and priced at silly levels.

The regular supplier said he could get it but we had to prepay for the order and wait for 6 to 8 weeks for it to be delivered. The prepayment was required because the supplier's source was now requiring prepayment before they would manufacture it. Due to the delay previous orders were cancelled and the supplier was left  trying to sell the batch. They decided no more of that. Pay up front and they will make a batch which will take at least 45 days to get to it and ship it so cash up front and wait up to 60 days.

Plastic Utensils.  Cut from my order yesterday.  Informed by supplier that they don't even have an appoint from their supplier to deliver until ~2022.  Apparently sitting on a ship in LA... 
We have now raped the local supply to stretch as far as we can. 

I cannot order 🥓 from the meat counter online.

Every store I plug in to that site to order from has 1/2 my regular purchases showing OOS.

Now, there's a Santa Claus shortage...

https://fortune.com/2021/11/11/2021-santa-shortage-christmas-mall-santas/

Quote from: RoneKiln on November 02, 2021, 01:48:33 PM
I'm finally seeing impacts in my area. I've been sheltered from most of it so far. Car prices are through the roof, but they have still easily been available if you're willing to pay stupid amounts of money.

Last week I finally saw gaps start to appear on shelves in the stores and prices jump. Not sure how much of the price jump is inflation vs supply chain disruptions. I know it's a combination.

Veggies were similar price to the week before.
Cheese jumped 60% in price in one week.
Bacon jumped similarly.
Chicken jumped 20%.
Fruit was hard for me to gauge due to normal seasonal price shifts hitting now.

Restaurant prices have jumped massively. I'd guess 40% or more. Not sure how much of that is from labor shortages. Servers are clearly overworked can't seem to get orders right. Luckily I've nkt seen anyone being a jerk to service people. Most people in my area seem pretty understanding.

I'm seeing more gaps in shelves again. For groceries, it's not a complete lack of products. It'll be certain sizes of packages or certain brands that are out.

In the hardware stores, I saw big gaps in various straps, bungee cords, etc. I also saw big gaps in smaller tool sets. If I want to buy a large shop size set of sockets and wrenches they have plenty. But if I want a small basic set for my vehicle kit or a gift to a kid, there's nothing. Nearly half an aisle of empty shelves.

Price of wood is still insane and real erratic as well.

Wife and I go to Sam's once a month when the kids are at college.   Usually a months worth runs around $375....   Paid $ 560 last weekend, almost had a stroke.   

I heard on the business report this morning, coffee bean pricing has gone up 85% this year. My old lady is a coffee junkie, so this hurts my wallet big time.


But riddle me this, crude oil was down from $84.xx/barrel last week to $75.xx/barrel this morning.  Regular Unleaded went up $0.07/gallon from yesterday to today in my AO.   So WTH?


Was at the store last night and really no Poultry to be had, other than Turkeys-  None of which were under 18lbs. 

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on November 19, 2021, 04:36:11 PM
But riddle me this, crude oil was down from $84.xx/barrel last week to $75.xx/barrel this morning.  Regular Unleaded went up $0.07/gallon from yesterday to today in my AO.   So WTH?

It generally takes about 6 months for changes in price of crude to ripple down to the pump. There's also a lot of additional factors in the price of fuel at the pump.

 Crude oil and refined products have very different cost structures. Gas and diesel is made from crude but fuels at the pump has the cost of refining it. The delivery cost and state taxes are are also a huge part of the price structure.

The delivery cost of fuel is also based upon the distance the
from the pipeline. All fuel is delivered by truck which requirea a CDL driver with a HAZMAT endorsement as well as a TWIC card...these folks are in short supply so their hourly cost has gone up a lot
Oh BTW the delivery truck burns diesel which is going up on cost.

The price of crude is a trend when comparing refined fuel costs...but there is a lot more that goes into the price of refined products.

Quote from: Lambykins on October 29, 2021, 06:57:33 PM
If you like turkey for your holiday meals, especially if your target size is 10 to 15 pounds...if you see one, get it! Especially if you can find one at a reasonable price.
Meat Dept manager was informed last week that his order for turkeys will be cut to 40% of what he ordered last year AND the price will probably double, if not triple by Christmas.
Dairy Dept has had certain items put on their *limited* list: Philadelphia Cream Cheese, ALL pie crusts (the kind that you pull out of a box and they are just flat crusts ready to put in pie pan), certain types of cheese....

Dang, forgot to check the prices & weights but, my Krogers/Dillons just got a good size shipment of large family gathering size turkeys stocked today.

Don't know if it's unique to my town, county, state but I thought a heads up for Kansas UFoZSers wouldn't be amis right now.

There seemed to be plenty of turkeys at the grocery store today.  Nothing I was looking for seemed to be missing, and I even found things that don't exist! (Gluten-free puff pastry, for those who are wondering)

Now, my 10-14 pound turkey I ordered came out to be 17 pounds...but I'll survive that.  I'm guessing they ran out of the smaller ones.

Quote from: CG on November 22, 2021, 08:02:50 PM
There seemed to be plenty of turkeys at the grocery store today.  Nothing I was looking for seemed to be missing, and I even found things that don't exist! (Gluten-free puff pastry, for those who are wondering)

Now, my 10-14 pound turkey I ordered came out to be 17 pounds...but I'll survive that.  I'm guessing they ran out of the smaller ones.

No turkeys and only very tiny hams at my usual haunts, but the upscale shop my husband likes to get his steaks from had some decent hams and some small turkeys (like, turkeys that will easily fit in my 8qt crock pot with room to spare).

We thought the kids were leaving for the week, so we didn't worry about it.  Their plans fell through and they've asked to invite another person, so we got some ham and tiny turkey and stuff for sides, but it's not going to be a lot for seven people.

Last year we did "Zoomsgiving" which meant I had to make my own food.  I've never done turkey and didn't feel like experimenting, so I went with Chicken Tequila Fettuccine (the California Pizza Kitchen recipe).  It's a favorite of mine and reheats well, which is important if you're single.  Had some mac & cheese, various veggies, potatoes, and some Pillsbury crescent rolls, with pumpkin crisp for dessert.  Took me another week to finish it all, but it turned out really well.

What I'm getting at is that your Thanksgiving dinner doesn't have to have specific foods in order to be a success.  My parents used to invite various people from their church who didn't have family in the area to eat with us.  Some of them were from other countries which meant getting food from different cultures, all of which was excellent!  The important part is getting together with you and yours, whomever those people are.  Making something a bit different for dinner might end up as a wonderful memory, so be creative and have some fun!

WFSB News 3- Natural gas shortage, supply chain issues could result in rolling blackouts in New England (https://www.wfsb.com/news/natural-gas-shortage-supply-chain-issues-could-result-in-rolling-blackouts-in-new-england/article_324574c0-5c54-11ec-b193-53802f62a356.html)

Power grid operator ISO New England is warning there could be blackouts or controlled outages if we get severe cold weather this season.

It all has to do with the natural gas shortages and the supply chain issues we are seeing globally.

If the weather stays like we have been experiencing recently, then they will have enough electricity for New England, but if several cold days come, they might not have enough energy to distribute to companies, like Eversource and United Illuminating.

New England depends heavily on natural gas to create electricity and because there is a shortage, we might not have enough to meet the demand if we get bad weather.



Boston Globe - Rolling blackouts possible in New England this winter, regional grid warns (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/14/nation/rolling-blackouts-possible-new-england-this-winter-regional-grid-warns/)

AUGUSTA, Maine (AP) — Rolling blackouts may hit New England if there's an extended cold snap this winter, as the regional power grid operator warns of a "precarious" situation due to snags in the natural gas supply.

Much of the grid's power comes from burning natural gas, and right now that fuel is in shorter-than-normal supply and is subject to supply chain disruptions, said Gordon van Welie, CEO of ISO New England.

The region's grid is often near the limit during winter months, but severe weather combined with high natural gas prices and pipeline constraints could push the grid past the tipping point and prompt mandatory usage restrictions.

Its been months since I posted in this thread. Things have not gotten better locally. (This sounds like the beginning of a post apocolyptic sci fi movie.) Local grocery stores are running out of various items randomly.

Here in socal the kroger company has long ago killed off the unions. That used to make working in a grocery store a viable career. Now they are cutting costs even further. Very few checkers and stockers at the local stores. Shelves run bare from short supply. And what is there is often a jumbled mess strewn across shelves. As few stockers exist.

Everytime i go i have to plan for long lines with only 2 cashiers working at a time. 15 to 20 people lined up to pay.

If i find something in stock i often buy multiples. As i dont know when it might be in stock again.

Wet dog and cat food seem to come and go. Costcos excellent brand is rarely in stock. Even the cheap brands at kroger come and go. The only bright side is it used to be stock piled before sent out to stores. But now its really fresh canned food. As it seems to come direct from the factory to the store. Whrnever production allows.

Locally I have seen a few empty shelves but not many. The shelf inventory is shallower but most products are still there.

I feared pork/ham would be in short supply  but that has not happened.

The local products are available in quantity. Eggs, pork, beef and shrimp are available but prices are up a lot.


The only thing in short supply i have run into is cat food and cat litter. That is because i am looking for specific brands and types of each.

Quote from: Raptor on January 16, 2022, 01:37:29 PM
The only thing in short supply i have run into is cat food and cat litter. That is because i am looking for specific brands and types of each.

Over here to the east of you I've also noticed the cat food shortage. About six months ago I resorted to buying the canned stuff on eBay, and with the free shipping a couple of sellers offers, it costs about the same. Dry cat food was still available locally up until recently, but now it's getting thin. 

Recently, the lunch meat section of the local Piggly Wiggly and Rouses has been pretty bare,   

Over the holidays, I could not find a soy/almond/rice/coconut-based eggnog alternative to save my life.  The real stuff is too rich for my blood (literally) and the alternatives give enough of that eggnog taste to satisfy my needs.  I see eggnog merely as a rum/bourbon delivery system anyway.  So I've been buying the non-dairy stuff for years now.

This year, it's like the whole seasonal product category just disappeared.  I'm guessing there must be a shortage of some critical ingredient and the non-dairy milk alternative industry decided to concentrate on their core products.   

Things in DSM, as of Sunday, January 16th, 2022; still suck nasty-ass w/o any sign of getting better.

From an online ordering POV, the items most readily available are things no one should eat, for any reason.  Getting quality produce, meat, dairy (online) isn't happening.  There are a few exceptions at times, but those are uncommon.

fwiw, I don't understand why I can order Everclear by the US gal, but I can't get a pack of Camels :rolleyes1:

I went to get some distilled water, which used to be $0.50 per gallon.  Today they are $1.12 per gallon.  Water distillation is inefficient in small batches, but I wonder at what point it becomes cheaper to just do it at home. 

store brand water has been iffy for 6-8 months around here. One week, Kroger will have no distilled; next week, Walmart will be out of spring water
store brand lunch meat and canned vegetables are hit and miss also

Honey wheat bread of any brand is hit or miss here.  Even Amazon Fresh has been out of it. 

I cannot get my Yasso fudge brownie or chocolate fudge froyo bars at all, but those are kind of specialty.  Ice cream in general seems to be available.  I guess I'm going to have to make my own froyo.

Chicken nuggets and chicken strips are still a challenge to find and milk is often out, as well.  Vanilla extract is either impossible to find or stupid expensive, so I have some homemade stuff aging in a drawer. 

The price of sugar came back down.  It's back near $0.50 per pound.

Our suppliers have put the store back on *allocation*, which means we get only a certain percentage of our orders to the warehouse.
Reasons:
1 Manufacturers are sending the warehouses less stuff. They have serious worker shortages.
2 Pickers/stockers/loaders at the warehouse have quit in droves. They now have a serious lack of workers.
3 Truckers are leaving the industry in record numbers. Our main supplier had to DOUBLE the average drivers pay to keep them. Plus add perks (health insurance inclu. dental/vision, a retirement package, etc.
4 The weather (nationwide) has seriously sucked.

We are doing fairly well up here, though.
We have the wonderful advantage of being an INDEPENDENT grocery store. Lance was able to call around and access smaller lots that most big chains aren't interested in and negotiate prices personally, etc.
We had plenty of alternative eggnog at Christmas (I think we might still be carrying some brands, I'll have to look tomorrow). Our waters went up a little, but not as much as noted before and we have ample supply.

Still, we have a few items that don't come in.

Here's a few suggestion to find those items you can't find at the big chains:

Shop INDEPENDENT stores not affiliated with a big chain. They are few and far between, but they are out there. They appreciate your business. Prices can be higher or lower than chains, but if you strike up a friendship with a cashier, they might tell you the best days to come in *cough-cough* Friday mornings at around 10, or offer to order the holy grail item you have been looking for. (Our most popular holy grail item is coffee creamer. There is one flavor people can't seem to find anywhere else. One guy from Boston drives up once every couple weeks to get a case or two of this stuff. We call him and tell him when it gets in and hold his cases for him in the cooler)

Look at Big Lots and/or Odd Lots (whatever it is called in your A/O. ) They carry groceries. Usually nothing refrigerated/frozen, but plenty of dry goods at cheaper prices. Also canned goods. Our local (an hour away) Odd Lots had Bobs Red Mill stuff at a half the price my store sells it! And manuka honey for 9 bucks a pint! Walnuts for 3.99 for a pound bag! You get the idea.

When they open for the season, make friends at your local farmers markets and farm stands. Buy your eggs from local farms. If you are okay with it, buy raw milk from a local farm. Frequent the *pick your own* farms or join one of those co-ops that have farm boxes stuffed full of veggies and fruits for members. Join a group that buys *shares* in a cow or pig that a farmer raises/butchers for you.

Network. Network with friends/neighbors/relatives so they'll let you know when items are available. And let them know, too!

In my AO lately, seems like each of the two grocers I shop at have differing shortages of items.  So we're usually able to get everything, but obviously takes more time to get them having to shop two different stores.

Chicken at one store has been almost impossible to find for several months now, while the other has fully stocked shelves.  One has had a shortage of canned veggies, but are in abundance at the other.  Only could not get a particular lunch meat I like from either this past weekend.  Bread, milk, eggs, sugar, flour, meats etc.  have all been readily available otherwise...  pricing is of course way up on most.

I hear from co-workers WallyWorld is perpetually out of lots of staple items.  I don't shop there, so does not bother me.


So as far as the inflation goes, when does the transitory part stop?   Oh...  yeah... right...  uhhh... Nevermind.   :rolleyes1:


Now from a material standpoint at work, it's getting a lot worse. Lead times that were 2-3 weeks, were pushed out to 3 months, and some of those now have been pushed out to 5+ months.  Electronic components to build our control panels have gone stupidly insane for delivery times. 

I'm noticing that a lot of the smaller sizes of things are gone - no regular size cans of Dinty Moore, just the double size ones.  No individual cups of instant rice, but plenty of the boxes.

Quote from: CG on January 19, 2022, 06:14:58 PM
I'm noticing that a lot of the smaller sizes of things are gone - no regular size cans of Dinty Moore, just the double size ones.  No individual cups of instant rice, but plenty of the boxes.

Can't get marinara sauce at sizes smaller than 24oz here.  On the other hand, I can only get small bottles of ketchup and not the big bottles we used to get.

Oh...I almost forgot.  The cook up at church last night said they couldn't find any larger tomato products at Sam's.  She was aghast that she was having to use JARRED sauce instead of making spaghetti sauce from scratch.   :tickedoff:

Quote from: Anianna on January 16, 2022, 11:12:58 PMI went to get some distilled water, which used to be $0.50 per gallon.  Today they are $1.12 per gallon.  Water distillation is inefficient in small batches, but I wonder at what point it becomes cheaper to just do it at home.

Distilled instead of purified?  Just curious as why?

I always get purified because it's primary use is in my CPAP.

Quote from: MPMalloy on January 21, 2022, 11:17:37 AM

Distilled instead of purified?  Just curious as why?

I always get purified because it's primary use is in my CPAP.

You might want to revisit that understanding with your sleep specialist/equipment provider.  I too use a CPAP and was told in no uncertain terms to use only distilled water. Purified water can still contain things like minerals that can build up in your machine. Minerals are fine in your digestive tract but not so good for your lungs.

I have a cpap too. Ive almost killed a cpap machine by not using distilled water. It also makes the watertank filled with disgusting mineral residue. Tjat builds up prettythick. I could see it clogging the internals easily. Since ive stuck with distilled. And my cpap is pristine.

Quote from: MPMalloy on January 21, 2022, 11:17:37 AM

Quote from: Anianna on January 16, 2022, 11:12:58 PMI went to get some distilled water, which used to be $0.50 per gallon.  Today they are $1.12 per gallon.  Water distillation is inefficient in small batches, but I wonder at what point it becomes cheaper to just do it at home.

Distilled instead of purified?  Just curious as why?

I always get purified because it's primary use is in my CPAP.

As others have mentioned, you should be using distilled in a CPAP only.  For me, I want distilled for nasal wash (netti pot type stuff) for which you should only use distilled water because drinking water can contain a brain eating amoeba that is perfectly safe to ingest but not at all safe to get up your nose if you happen to like your brain or being alive in the slightest.

As I heard it, it was the other way around.  I am sending a message to the VA about this.

Thank you everyone!

I use distilled water for my cigar humidity beads.



We ran in to a shortage of fresh fruit, specifically grapes, this weekend.  3 stores and nary a grape to be had.  And fwiw, the current blueberry stock available is horrendously sour.

AAA batteries are suddenly getting very hard to find.  AAs up the wazoo, but AAAs seem to be in very short supply.

Your energy costs would be a lot higher. Distilled water is a byproduct of other pr6.

I used to shop at multiple stores to get the best prices.  Now I shop at multiple stores to get as many items as possible on my list.

I find it odd that one store can be completely out of a particular type of item, but another store has it in stock.  Throughout the last year or so, it's been more like a particular item just cannot be found in my area at all, but now it's just a matter of which store has what.  I guess that's an improvement, maybe?

Today the lunchmeat I like was back in stock.  But salad mix was nowhere to be found-  was there another recall recently?


https://www.eatthis.com/news-grocery-item-shortages-to-come/


.

Has anyone else found shortages in prescription meds? All of tje pharmacies near me (and i live in los angeles) were completwly out of one of my meds. I had to do without for 3 days. It was an important med too. Caused me a great deal of discomfort.

Quote from: MPMalloy on January 21, 2022, 08:30:42 PM
As I heard it, it was the other way around.  I am sending a message to the VA about this.

Thank you everyone!

How long have u used a cpap?

Quote from: Moab on January 31, 2022, 06:29:15 PM
Has anyone else found shortages in prescription meds? All of tje pharmacies near me (and i live in los angeles) were completwly out of one of my meds. I had to do without for 3 days. It was an important med too. Caused me a great deal of discomfort.

I'm not sure if it was a shortage or just incompetence, but I've had difficulty getting one of my meds for months.  One pharmacy repeatedly claimed my insurance wasn't covering it even though I had evidence that insurance approved it immediately each time.  At first, they would finally send it around two weeks later, but after a few times of that, I gave up with them.

I switched to a different pharmacy and they kept calling me telling me I had waited too long and they were sending my meds back when I didn't even know they had them in the first place.  These meds can't be put on autorefill and I hadn't even requested a refill on at least one occasion, so why would I think they had them in?  On other occasions, I was wating for them to come in and literally my first contact was "it's been ten days, we're sending your meds back" and my husband rushed over to have them tell him they already sent it back.  WTH?  Why would you call to tell me that without giving me the opportunity to act on it?  One time I specifically asked if I could still come get it and they said I could, but they were already gone when my husband got there.  The store is like five minutes away.

I've now had my doctor send the script to my insurance's mail pharmacy, so we'll see how that goes.

Not sure if here or the inflation thread is the right place for this, but I've been seeing chatter and articles recently along the lines of "Should there be price controls on food and gas to fight inflation?" and that motivated me to finally start stockpiling some gas.

The weather is definitely screwing up our supply chain up here.
The big snowstorm didn't hit us but it hit further south and east.
Our warehouses and suppliers are all south and east of us. Roads were closed in Connecticut and Massachusetts. Workers couldn't even get to the warehouses to work.
So, our Monday truck, aka the weeks BIG order/truck, didn't come in and some shelves were bare. Our big group of Monday shoppers were very annoyed.
Then people decided to buy what they could find on our shelves...and as much as they could afford. So, more empty shelves.
Then astute people saw that the shelf tags were being changed. Prices are going UP and in a big way.
Example: Progresso soups. Fairly decent product. Lots of good varieties. Normally 2.99 a can, currently on sale at our store for $1.25 a can. Good buy.
The new price will be (after the sale) $3.99 a can.
Almost every price in the store is going up from 10 cents an item up to $2.00 an item.
This is not the store doing this,  the suppliers and vendors are doing this.
From what Lance told me, suppliers and vendors apparently decided instead of gradually creeping up the prices over the span of a few months to a year, they decided to just bite the bullet and jump the prices all at once. February is a big month for this, a lot of the fiscal year planning takes effect in February.

So...shop sales. You will not see those prices again in the foreseeable future.
Be aware of weather not just in your a/o, but in areas where your food may be coming from. If you live in Michigan you may not think much about a huge storm hitting Florida...until you see there are no citrus fruits in the produce section. (Similarly, a lot of produce for the US this time of year comes from South America. Problems and/or weather events in Chili can impact your plans to make beef and broccoli for dinner next week)
Again, this time of year is rough on transportation systems. A big storm in the Northeast can be reflected in supply problems in the Upper Midwest. And prices and/or availability are reflected in this.

Quote from: Lambykins on February 01, 2022, 06:43:19 AM
Be aware of weather not just in your a/o, but in areas where your food may be coming from. If you live in Michigan you may not think much about a huge storm hitting Florida...until you see there are no citrus fruits in the produce section.

To add to this, be aware that sometimes, they'll still ship out these products and they may look fine on the outside, but the inside will not be palatable.  It's a bit of a crapshoot to purchase citrus following an event like this.

I ran into the distilled water problem the other day. Normally every store in the area carries it as people use it for their generators. Now there was only one store on the next town over that had any and it was $3/gallon instead of $1.50.

Quote from: majorhavoc on January 24, 2022, 05:56:00 PM
AAA batteries are suddenly getting very hard to find.  AAs up the wazoo, but AAAs seem to be in very short supply. 

They were in abundance in my AO on Monday (02-07-22) when I was at the store.  Actually bought a package since I was low.  Regional shortage perhaps?


.

Quote from: Optimist on February 08, 2022, 06:04:40 PM
I ran into the distilled water problem the other day. Normally every store in the area carries it as people use it for their generators. Now there was only one store on the next town over that had any and it was $3/gallon instead of $1.50.

Its hard to find at my kroger even before covid.

I finally decided to buy a distiller to ensure I can always have distilled water at hand.  Hubby's all excited thinking he can make some moonshine.  We don't even drink, but he has this thing for making alcohol (he once made mead from our own honey - it smelled like jet fuel). 

Peanut Butter and Bread shortages yesterday when I was at the stores.


Finally found some 90/10 ground beef, but at $6.49/lb.    :tickedoff:

Heads up! Wheat & flour

Survival Lilly!  :awesome:   She's awesome; I used to watch her all the time.  Her solar, gardening, rainwater and food stores set ups in this video very impressive.  That woman is the real deal.

Anyone know how long wheat flour keeps?  Remember at the very beginning of the pandemic store shelves were stripped bare of flour and yeast?  I remember finding a store that had some so I bought a couple bags for myself and two more for a family I look out for.  I also gave them some fairly new yeast I had on hand.    

That was over two years ago.  The family immediately embarked on a regular COVID bakefest, but I didn't do anything with my flour and yeast.  The yeast, already at least a year old at the time, probably isn't viable anymore.  But the flour should still be good, right?  Stored in my kitchen cabinet.  No special packaging, just the paper bag it came in.  Anyone have thoughts?

To my mind, the one to watch is still fuel, specifically diesel. That's the nose, most other things are tail.

We backhandedly watch diesel at work because we operate a fleet of 375+ fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and all the turbine engines run on Jet A.

I am not the fuel guy (I'm the maintenance analysis guy), but what I am being told is that manufacturing bandwidth is arranged in such a way that gasoline is sort of its own stream, and the second stream is diesel and Jet A (which are related). Accordingly, increases in diesel production eat into Jet A production, and vice versa. You can get Jet A working a diesel engine (kerosene, Jet A, and diesel #1 are all similar... diesel #2 kinda different)... so this seems intuitive.

What we see is that Jet A prices skyrocketed in March and are still climbing. The explainer so far is that on top of the Everything Shortage, diesel capacity is being prioritized so we get drenched twice when we fill the birds up. Price at the fuel terminals (i.e. raw commodity cost) is up something like 120% YoY right now, even though WTI isn't tracking that way. We eat increases a second time when paying for distribution to our bowsers (which, shocker, runs on diesel), and then a third time plus extra if we do the stupid thing and refuel at an FBO (which is relying on diesel-based distribution too... and now we gotta pay for their overhead).

And diesel PPG is going up. Not down.

Short version, distro is getting hammered. I'm not nervous yet, but thinking about the things that rely on diesel... you get unpleasant answers. Colorado's grid is like 40% coal-fired. Coal delivery runs on diesel. Gasoline delivery
to your favorite dead dinosaur pumps runs on diesel. Grocery store supply chains run on diesel. Fertilizer trucking runs on diesel.

It touches everything. I think if you don't watch anything else, that's the commodity to price-track.

Quote from: Lodewijk on June 10, 2022, 08:50:10 AMAnd diesel PPG is going up. Not down.

Short version, distro is getting hammered. I'm not nervous yet, but thinking about the things that rely on diesel... you get unpleasant answers. Colorado's grid is like 40% coal-fired. Coal delivery runs on diesel. Gasoline delivery
to your favorite dead dinosaur pumps runs on diesel. Grocery store supply chains run on diesel. Fertilizer trucking runs on diesel.

It touches everything. I think if you don't watch anything else, that's the commodity to price-track.

Indeed diesel touches everything since almost 100% of US products rely on diesel powered vehicles to deliver the last mile.
I agree with the concern about the coal fired power plants. They typically need a train load of coal every other day to stay running.

A link to a good map with power plant fuel.

The good news for (at least my AO) is that NG is the primary fuel for electrical generation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/power-plants/

Note that since 2020 about 5% of the total refinery capacity has been closed either by regulations or because of need for expensive R&M. 

So even though rig count seems to be climbing...without a refinery or the infrastructure for this future oil production (~ 1 year from now) without refinery capacity it has no where to go.
https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count

Some of the farmers here use heating oil instead of diesel. Not exactly legal and not the best for the engine but they have been doing it for years and the engines are still running. Most of the ones who do it have old tractors, 60s and earlier. I don´t know if it´s the same with modern diesel engines.
As far as I know (meaning Google told me :smiley_blink: ) heating oil and diesel used to be nearly identical, but nowadays are different enough that it can seriously damage your car.

You can "make" yeast very easily yourself. Most organic grown fruits have wild yeast fungi on them. The problem is that you don´t know what kind of yeast you get as they differ a lot, so when you find one that works and tastes nice keep it going.
I wouldn´t store flour in the bag anymore, we once had flour moths. They decimate your entire supply and once finished infest all other kinds of foods. Once they were done, they switched to eating cardboard and wallpaper. Near impossible to get rid of, we spend an entire year hunting them down.
I´ve switched where I can from grain to legumes. They are cheap, nutritious, have a long shelf live and I can sow them if need be. A very long lasting germinability, too.

Our municipal did a survey recently that we have enough food producing agriculture to be able to feed all the residents. I´m not sure if they took into account that most food produced here is wine and liqueur. :awesome:

Quote from: tirls on June 10, 2022, 01:41:58 PMOur municipal did a survey recently that we have enough food producing agriculture to be able to feed all the residents. I´m not sure if they took into account that most food produced here is wine and liqueur. :awesome:

Well, SHTF and we know where the party town will be! :clubbing:

We´ve got a spare room and a neighbour with two 500 gallon barrels of hard liquor who is willing to share. :smiley_blink:

Nov. 03, 2021 I ordered some material we use regularly in our production cycle (when available!).  Arrived June 8th, 2022.

Normally this would be a 3-5 day delivery when in stock.


:eek1: :eek1: :eek1:

Also, for those who care about distribution issues, a railroad strike is highly likely in the next week if they don't have any new outcomes in our agreements. We've been in negotiations for 3 years now, and no one wants to budge on anything, and it has become a shit show...

Quote from: Brekar on July 11, 2022, 11:36:21 PMAlso, for those who care about distribution issues, a railroad strike is highly likely in the next week if they don't have any new outcomes in our agreements. We've been in negotiations for 3 years now, and no one wants to budge on anything, and it has become a shit show...

This and these two items in CA may pose some issues for everyone who depends upon trucking.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/deadline-looms-for-new-emissions-regulations-impacting-trucking-in-california/ar-AAZthot

QuoteBut, while CARB's Truck and Bus Regulation has been on the books for 14 years, its implementation couldn't come at a worse time. The pandemic has caused supply chain problems and a shortage of drivers. At the stroke of midnight on New Year's, an estimated 80,000 trucks will suddenly become illegal in California.
"They're going to knock out of the Port of Oakland with this rule. About 1,800 owner-operators who simply don't have the wherewithal, because of these economic conditions, to replace these trucks," said Joe Rajkovacz with the Western States Trucking Association.

And then there is this:

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/ab5-independent-california-truckers-scramble-scotus-refuses-to-hear-challenge/

QuoteA law designed to force gig-economy companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash to accept workers as employees is also having a profound impact on the trucking industry. AB5 was intended to give transport workers more workplace protections, but for truckers who own and operate their own rigs, they said it may be the end of the road.

CA has made the independent owner/operator trucker "illegal". The independent owner operators account for about 700,000 trucks in the US. So potentially a lot of truck loads will not be moved from ports in CA.

I have not a clue how these events will play out but neither is good for the logistics stream.

In the Netherlands the maximum capacity of the electric grid has been reached in North Holland, Friesland, Flevoland and Amsterdam and can and does cause bottlenecks. That is over a quarter of the population. New connections to the main electric grid, both private and industrial, cannot be guaranteed anymore unless the applicant can prove they can supply their own energy.

This is worrying as Europe has an interconnecting grid and one of the main grid operators in the Netherlands also operates the majority of the German grid. Meanwhile the price for medium voltage which a lot of companies use has risen dramatically.

I know I've said it before, but this time it is inevitable. For those who care about the likely potential distribution issues, a railroad strike will be happening on September 16th, 2022 with all of the major railroads being involved, a total of 15,000 plus people involved. We've been in negotiations for 3 years now, and no one wants to budge on anything, and it has become a shit show. Since they called our bluff, a strike will be happening. Here's hoping it won't cause all of you any issues with getting any needed supplies, and hopefully it'll be over soon.

A lot of electrical components used to build our Control Panels have had delivery times moved out 5-8+ months.  This is getting fuglier by the day.
.

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on September 12, 2022, 02:59:52 PMA lot of electrical components used to build our Control Panels have had delivery times moved out 5-8+ months.  This is getting fuglier by the day.
.

I currently work at an electronics manufacturer and we have an average order time of 24 weeks for very basic components that nearly every device needs.
They've also just got the confirmation that the electricity costs are going to increase to 10 times of that before.
I'm not very confident regarding the economy at the moment.

Quote from: Brekar on September 10, 2022, 10:44:39 PMFor those who care about the likely potential distribution issues, a railroad strike will be happening

I suspect we're all going to care by the time this is through.

I think it was an article on Bloomberg that said it was anticipated that a strike could cost the economy somewhere around $2 billion per day.  :eek1:


Ah, here it is:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-11/rail-strike-deadline-carries-economic-and-political-risks-for-biden  

QuoteWith freight railroads serving agricultural, industrial, wholesale, retail and other parts of the US economy, a nationwide shutdown could cost up to $2 billion a day, the Association of American Railroads predicts. At a time of elevated inflation, the stoppage could result in plant shutdowns, lost jobs and higher costs for consumers and businesses.

That said, for what it's worth, I do hope you all get some benefits out of this--it really sounds like y'all have been getting the short end of the stick with scheduling and leave and all that.

Super glad I'm tied into a coal-fired grid now lol

We see trains of it roll through a couple times a week, I assume that's where the coal is going.

Many parts for use in refineries and other heavy industrial facilities we typically have a 6 week lead time on are now 2+ years out.

But the greatest shortage we have is skill base. We are seeing more and more facilities setting up systems to share highly skilled people and for those people to help mentor younger people. 

None of it is going smoothly.

I know the POTUS announced the rail worker issue was resolved, but I'm hearing the unions were not consulted on that deal when he announced it. Sounds like that deal is horrific for the workers. As disastrous as a rail strike would be, I would not blame the workers one bit for digging their heals in and shutting it all down. I'm a little disturbed legacy media appears to be treating it all as a done deal, crisis averted.

I noticed this morning that my local Winco has massively expanded their bulk food section and long term food storage containers/supplies. I don't think that's a slow reaction to the pandemic disruptions. I think they see future economic and distribution disruptions coming.

For years I've heard people compare our current society to the decline of the Roman Empire. I see far greater parallels to the Bronze Age collapse.

Quote from: Lodewijk on June 10, 2022, 08:50:10 AMTo my mind, the one to watch is still fuel, specifically diesel. That's the nose, most other things are tail.

We backhandedly watch diesel at work because we operate a fleet of 375+ fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and all the turbine engines run on Jet A.

I am not the fuel guy (I'm the maintenance analysis guy), but what I am being told is that manufacturing bandwidth is arranged in such a way that gasoline is sort of its own stream, and the second stream is diesel and Jet A (which are related). Accordingly, increases in diesel production eat into Jet A production, and vice versa. You can get Jet A working a diesel engine (kerosene, Jet A, and diesel #1 are all similar... diesel #2 kinda different)... so this seems intuitive.

What we see is that Jet A prices skyrocketed in March and are still climbing. The explainer so far is that on top of the Everything Shortage, diesel capacity is being prioritized so we get drenched twice when we fill the birds up. Price at the fuel terminals (i.e. raw commodity cost) is up something like 120% YoY right now, even though WTI isn't tracking that way. We eat increases a second time when paying for distribution to our bowsers (which, shocker, runs on diesel), and then a third time plus extra if we do the stupid thing and refuel at an FBO (which is relying on diesel-based distribution too... and now we gotta pay for their overhead).

And diesel PPG is going up. Not down.

Short version, distro is getting hammered. I'm not nervous yet, but thinking about the things that rely on diesel... you get unpleasant answers. Colorado's grid is like 40% coal-fired. Coal delivery runs on diesel. Gasoline delivery
to your favorite dead dinosaur pumps runs on diesel. Grocery store supply chains run on diesel. Fertilizer trucking runs on diesel.

It touches everything. I think if you don't watch anything else, that's the commodity to price-track.

The heavy crude the US used to import produced more diesel and jet fuel than the light crude we now frack domestically. The light crude from fracking produces a far higher ratio of light products than heavy products.

So on average, we now get a higher ratio of gasoline and a lower ratio of diesel from every barrel of crude.

Many refiners are trying to increase the production of biodiesel to offset this. The ones in my area have been consistently undermined in these efforts by well meaning but poorly informed activists that are adept at lawsuits and forcing never ending impact reviews by local .gov agencies anytime we want to build additional infrastructure. There's only so much we can do in converting old infrastructure, but the industry is working at it as there is far less room for activists to interfere.

Quote from: RoneKiln on September 25, 2022, 02:45:50 PMI know the POTUS announced the rail worker issue was resolved, but I'm hearing the unions were not consulted on that deal when he announced it. Sounds like that deal is horrific for the workers. As disastrous as a rail strike would be, I would not blame the workers one bit for digging their heals in and shutting it all down. I'm a little disturbed legacy media appears to be treating it all as a done deal, crisis averted.

I noticed this morning that my local Winco has massively expanded their bulk food section and long term food storage containers/supplies. I don't think that's a slow reaction to the pandemic disruptions. I think they see future economic and distribution disruptions coming.

For years I've heard people compare our current society to the decline of the Roman Empire. I see far greater parallels to the Bronze Age collapse.

The biggest issue with POTUS announcing the railroad issue being solved is what you said, no one was consulted before he started talking. Nothing is currently resolved, it's merely delayed. We've been given a contract to vote on, but honestly other than having a 24% pay increase over the next 3 years, all back pay from 2020 to current paid at around 13%, a $1,000 bonus every December till 2025, and our insurance capped at a max of $380-ish, the rest sucks. We asked for 15 paid sick days off for the entire year, they countered with 1 PL day off, and 3 annual routine or preventive health care visits to the doctor. However, those appointments must be scheduled at least 30 days in advance, and must take place on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday. The biggest issue now would be if we were to go on strike again, it would likely be in early December, which would be devastating for the Christmas time economy. Hopefully we'll never get to that point, but we'll see...

Quote from: majorhavoc on June 10, 2022, 08:49:04 AMSurvival Lilly!  :awesome:  She's awesome; I used to watch her all the time.  Her solar, gardening, rainwater and food stores set ups in this video very impressive.  That woman is the real deal.

Anyone know how long wheat flour keeps?  Remember at the very beginning of the pandemic store shelves were stripped bare of flour and yeast?  I remember finding a store that had some so I bought a couple bags for myself and two more for a family I look out for.  I also gave them some fairly new yeast I had on hand.   

That was over two years ago.  The family immediately embarked on a regular COVID bakefest, but I didn't do anything with my flour and yeast.  The yeast, already at least a year old at the time, probably isn't viable anymore.  But the flour should still be good, right?  Stored in my kitchen cabinet.  No special packaging, just the paper bag it came in.  Anyone have thoughts?

In case you still needed to know...

https://www.theperfectloaf.com/the-best-way-to-store-flour/

https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/blog/2020/05/04/can-i-bake-with-out-of-date-flour



And yes, agreed, Survival Lily rocks! 
.

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on October 28, 2022, 02:56:39 PM

Quote from: majorhavoc on June 10, 2022, 08:49:04 AMSurvival Lilly!  :awesome:  She's awesome; I used to watch her all the time.  Her solar, gardening, rainwater and food stores set ups in this video very impressive.  That woman is the real deal.

Anyone know how long wheat flour keeps?  Remember at the very beginning of the pandemic store shelves were stripped bare of flour and yeast?  I remember finding a store that had some so I bought a couple bags for myself and two more for a family I look out for.  I also gave them some fairly new yeast I had on hand.   

That was over two years ago.  The family immediately embarked on a regular COVID bakefest, but I didn't do anything with my flour and yeast.  The yeast, already at least a year old at the time, probably isn't viable anymore.  But the flour should still be good, right?  Stored in my kitchen cabinet.  No special packaging, just the paper bag it came in.  Anyone have thoughts?

In case you still needed to know...

https://www.theperfectloaf.com/the-best-way-to-store-flour/

https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/blog/2020/05/04/can-i-bake-with-out-of-date-flour



And yes, agreed, Survival Lily rocks! 
.

I have about 35 lbs. of bread flour in a tub out in my spare room.  It's gotta be at least 10 years old now and I'm still baking with it.  The taste's fine.

Quote from: Moab on January 31, 2022, 06:30:34 PM

Quote from: MPMalloy on January 21, 2022, 08:30:42 PMAs I heard it, it was the other way around.  I am sending a message to the VA about this.

Thank you everyone!

How long have u used a cpap?

Several years now.

Quote from: NT2C on October 28, 2022, 05:11:18 PM

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on October 28, 2022, 02:56:39 PM

Quote from: majorhavoc on June 10, 2022, 08:49:04 AMSurvival Lilly!  :awesome:  She's awesome; I used to watch her all the time.  Her solar, gardening, rainwater and food stores set ups in this video very impressive.  That woman is the real deal.

Anyone know how long wheat flour keeps?  Remember at the very beginning of the pandemic store shelves were stripped bare of flour and yeast?  I remember finding a store that had some so I bought a couple bags for myself and two more for a family I look out for.  I also gave them some fairly new yeast I had on hand.   

That was over two years ago.  The family immediately embarked on a regular COVID bakefest, but I didn't do anything with my flour and yeast.  The yeast, already at least a year old at the time, probably isn't viable anymore.  But the flour should still be good, right?  Stored in my kitchen cabinet.  No special packaging, just the paper bag it came in.  Anyone have thoughts?

In case you still needed to know...

https://www.theperfectloaf.com/the-best-way-to-store-flour/

https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/blog/2020/05/04/can-i-bake-with-out-of-date-flour



And yes, agreed, Survival Lily rocks! 
.

I have about 35 lbs. of bread flour in a tub out in my spare room.  It's gotta be at least 10 years old now and I'm still baking with it.  The taste's fine.

Ya, not to say it can't be done.  I've used old flour also, and I've had some newer that smelled sour/ musty that I've tossed because it wasn't worth the chance to me.
.

Assuming all purpose flour is kept dry and not in a moist area or in an open counter top container it should last 5+ years (in a sealed container). 

This says 2 years +
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/does-flour-go-bad#signs-of-spoilage

https://www.rd.com/article/does-flour-go-bad/

Quote from: Raptor on November 01, 2022, 01:43:23 PMAssuming all purpose flour is kept dry and not in a moist area or in an open counter top container it should last 5+ years (in a sealed container). 

This says 2 years +
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/does-flour-go-bad#signs-of-spoilage

Yes... and no?  So many factors may effect the outcome.  I think the kids say something like "YMMV". 

" For example, all-purpose flour lasts 6–8 months on the shelf but up to 1 year if refrigerated and 2 years if frozen."

"Flour has a long shelf life but generally goes bad after 3–8 months.
White flour may last longest due to its lower fat content, while whole-wheat and gluten-free varieties spoil sooner. You can extend flour's shelf life by sealing it properly or refrigerating or freezing it.
Be sure to throw out your flour if it has any unpleasant odors, discoloration, or mold growth."
.

And recently I inquired about delivery of some bearings we ordered July 5th...   

Their response: " Unfortunately these inserts are behind in production over seas and this is the current best date we can offer."  Except they didn't offer any delivery date. 

I have left a VM for our CS rep to see if we can get any kind of projected date at all.


Although may be a mute point shortly, as I heard we'll be out f diesel fuel shortly any way.  Already had several vendors and trucking companies warn us there may be further delays in deliveries as they are starting to see shortages. "FVCK!"
.

The petrochemical industry is desperately trying to staff up and we just don't have the skill base available. Local politics keep snarling up efforts to ramp up diesel production in most regions as well.

The grandkid of one of my coworkers just finished a two year tech degree in instrumentation systems and walked straight into a 6 figure income at 19. 

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on November 01, 2022, 04:20:14 PMAnd recently I inquired about delivery of some bearings we ordered July 5th... 

Their response: " Unfortunately these inserts are behind in production over seas and this is the current best date we can offer."  Except they didn't offer any delivery date.

I have left a VM for our CS rep to see if we can get any kind of projected date at all.


Although may be a mute point shortly, as I heard we'll be out f diesel fuel shortly any way.  Already had several vendors and trucking companies warn us there may be further delays in deliveries as they are starting to see shortages. "FVCK!"
.

NPR did a piece last week on supply chain issues. The two things they specifically mentioned as a drag on the economy?  Yup, diesel fuel and ball bearings.

The NPR reporter seemed surprised that ball bearings, of all things, are so vital to the economy.  As a WW2 history buff, I knew otherwise. German ball bearing factories were relentlessly targeted by the Allies as part of their strategic bombing campaign.  

Quote from: majorhavoc on November 02, 2022, 08:44:45 AM

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on November 01, 2022, 04:20:14 PMAnd recently I inquired about delivery of some bearings we ordered July 5th... 

Their response: " Unfortunately these inserts are behind in production over seas and this is the current best date we can offer."  Except they didn't offer any delivery date.

I have left a VM for our CS rep to see if we can get any kind of projected date at all.


Although may be a mute point shortly, as I heard we'll be out f diesel fuel shortly any way.  Already had several vendors and trucking companies warn us there may be further delays in deliveries as they are starting to see shortages. "FVCK!"
.

NPR did a piece last week on supply chain issues. The two things they specifically mentioned as a drag on the economy?  Yup, diesel fuel and ball bearings.

The NPR reporter seemed surprised that ball bearings, of all things, are so vital to the economy.  As a WW2 history buff, I knew otherwise. German ball bearing factories were relentlessly targeted by the Allies as part of their strategic bombing campaign. 

I would be shocked if an NPR reporter knew what a ball bearing looked like much less knew why they were vital... to me NPR is an asset code ... NPR = non performing remediation (needed). 


  

Quote from: majorhavoc on November 02, 2022, 08:44:45 AM

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on November 01, 2022, 04:20:14 PMAnd recently I inquired about delivery of some bearings we ordered July 5th... 

Their response: " Unfortunately these inserts are behind in production over seas and this is the current best date we can offer."  Except they didn't offer any delivery date.

I have left a VM for our CS rep to see if we can get any kind of projected date at all.


Although may be a mute point shortly, as I heard we'll be out f diesel fuel shortly any way.  Already had several vendors and trucking companies warn us there may be further delays in deliveries as they are starting to see shortages. "FVCK!"
.

NPR did a piece last week on supply chain issues. The two things they specifically mentioned as a drag on the economy?  Yup, diesel fuel and ball bearings.

The NPR reporter seemed surprised that ball bearings, of all things, are so vital to the economy.  As a WW2 history buff, I knew otherwise. German ball bearing factories were relentlessly targeted by the Allies as part of their strategic bombing campaign. 

We're feeling the diesel fuel crunch at the railroad. Work has slowed to a crawl, and I've went from working damn near ever day of the week, to working 2-3 times a week MAX. Add that to another possible strike happening on November 19th, and we are in for a potential world of hurt...

There's a lot of niche parts used by one or maybe a handful of industries, but ball bearings ain't one of those things.  :icon_crazy:

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on November 01, 2022, 04:20:14 PMAnd recently I inquired about delivery of some bearings we ordered July 5th... 

Their response: " Unfortunately these inserts are behind in production over seas and this is the current best date we can offer."  Except they didn't offer any delivery date.

I have left a VM for our CS rep to see if we can get any kind of projected date at all.

Estimated delivery to us is mid to end of April next year.   :headbang:
.

Quote from: NapalmMan67 on October 28, 2022, 02:56:39 PM

Quote from: majorhavoc on June 10, 2022, 08:49:04 AMAnyone know how long wheat flour keeps?

In case you still needed to know...
https://www.theperfectloaf.com/the-best-way-to-store-flour/
https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/blog/2020/05/04/can-i-bake-with-out-of-date-flour

I recently found a bag of granary flour (https://cotswoldflour.com/blogs/baking-resources/what-is-granary-flour) at the back of my cupboard that has a BBE date of April 2015. I''ve made a couple of loaves with it. There's something slightly *not right* about the resulting bread but it's still perfectly edible.

(I thought about putting this in the near-death experiments thread (https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?topic=370.0) but decided that seven years wasn't old enough for flour to count :greenguy: )

Was in my local Walmart today and two things jumped out at me (I mean besides the fact that I willingly paid $6.23 for a dozen eggs):

The flu and cold aisle in the pharmacy section is really picked over.  Some kid's alergy medications, a few bottles of Nyquil and that's about it.  I've been dealing with RSV or some sort of respiratory virus for over 2 weeks now and have plowed through what I thought was a healthy supply of cold medications.  At least they had a few packages of generic Musinex, which is what I need for my symptoms at this point.

The camping goods section is also extremely sparse - it doesn't look like it's been restocked in months.  In my mind, many types of camping goods are prepping items, but there's not much left to chose from.  And Walmart used to have true prepping supplies: go bags, UST rations, emergency stoves and such.  That kind of stuff is completely gone - most of what's left consists of bug repellant, cast iron cookware and a few shitty backpacks.  Beyond that: mostly just bare shelves.  Even their flashlight section is mostly empty space.

Quote from: majorhavoc on January 02, 2023, 12:44:43 PMWas in my local Walmart today and two things jumped out at me (I mean besides the fact that I willingly paid $6.23 for a dozen eggs):

The flu and cold aisle in the pharmacy section is really picked over.  Some kid's alergy medications, a few bottles of Nyquil and that's about it.  I've been dealing with RSV or some sort of respiratory virus for over 2 weeks now and have plowed through what I thought was a healthy supply of cold medications.  At least they had a few packages of generic Musinex, which is what I need for my symptoms at this point.

The camping goods section is also extremely sparse - it doesn't look like it's been restocked in months.  In my mind, many types of camping goods are prepping items, but there's not much left to chose from.  And Walmart used to have true prepping supplies: go bags, UST rations, emergency stoves and such.  That kind of stuff is completely gone - most of what's left consists of bug repellant, cast iron cookware and a few shitty backpacks.  Beyond that: mostly just bare shelves.  Even their flashlight section is mostly empty space.

On the flip side of that, Walmarts in my AO seem to be pretty well stocked in the camping section and flashlight section.

Even the pharmacy departments seem to be stocked as normal.

The only stores in my AO that have bare shelves are the Dollar Generals and that's less of a supply chain issue and more of a problem with the employees not doing more than standing around checking Twitter on their phones.

My local Walmart was never " good" with there camping, fishing, hunting. That section was always a mess and mostly low quality items. They still have a lot of it like it gets stocked weekly, just people come through and move everything. Flashlight part is normally stocked and has some good enough items, with plenty of batteries.
 

Quote from: Rednex on January 02, 2023, 02:22:32 PMMy local Walmart was never " good" with there camping, fishing, hunting. That section was always a mess and mostly low quality items. They still have a lot of it like it gets stocked weekly, just people come through and move everything. Flashlight part is normally stocked and has some good enough items, with plenty of batteries.
 

My Walmart doesn't keep the batteries with the flashlights.  They have a mobile kiosk for batteries that can be anywhere in the store and they sometimes but not always sell batteries on a register end cap or two.  Sometimes the kiosk is in electronics.  Sometimes it's just in a random place somewhere in the store.  There is no single dedicated location for batteries and it can be pretty frustrating when the one time you actually need batteries, you didn't run into the stupid randomly-placed kiosk. 

Same. I rarely get batteries at Walmart cause most of the time I can't find where they moved them 

:tickedoff:

Quote from: tirls on January 03, 2023, 12:27:22 PM:tickedoff:

You order something from Optics Planet ?

Because that's pretty close to their shipping estimates most times.

I don't have it in me to detail all the problems at all of the local retail food places I buy at. But it feels like a premonition of terrible things to come. I'm no tin hatter either. But so many shelves are bare. And so many items are no longer available. It makes me wonder how bad our financial situation is going to get.

One evening ALL THE EGG shelves were empty. Another day all the processed meat was gone. My favorite natural peanut butter. That is approved for WIC or EBT or whatever your state calls food stamps. Is gone. No longer available in any local Kroger stores. And its an old well established brand. 

Selections on various items have become very limited. Alot of the shelves have row upon row of the same brand item. Just to fill up space. So its not empty.

Its really really weird.

My local Kroger has also stopped using as many humans. By converting another 3 checkstands to self checkout. And routinely limit employee hours to one check stand. Or two or three with a line of twenty people on each one.

And the employees all are new. And most look and act like they are on parole. (Nothing wrong with parole. And getting your life back on track.) But most of these people don't have people skills. And rarely sound like they made it out of 5th grade. And are not people you'd want to disagree with. Or even get into a conversation with. Let alone ask for help. One of them carries around a radio with a speaker playing music - outloud! Ya. Like a boombox. Except its a radio attached to their belt loop playing music loud enough that everyone can hear it.

Across the freeway in the hood its even worse. Corporations do not fund businesses in the hood. They do not care. Prices may be cheaper. But you won't find anyone to help you. And you'll wait in a deep line to pay for your items. And the quality of fresh foods is terrible. 

Anyway. Good thing I didnt go on a diatribe huh?!!! Lmao! 

Quote I'm no tin hatter either

Hate to say it. But you are a member of  ufo alien zombie prep site. Doesn't get anymore tin hat  :panic:

Quote from: flybynight on January 23, 2023, 05:11:47 AM

QuoteI'm no tin hatter either

Hate to say it. But you are a member of  ufo alien zombie prep site. Doesn't get anymore tin hat  :panic:

Bronze Age Europe - mighty führer of tin-hattery - might object.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1f/Cappello_d%27oro_di_berlino%2C_1000_ac_ca._01.jpg/647px-Cappello_d%27oro_di_berlino%2C_1000_ac_ca._01.jpg)

Quote from: tirls on January 23, 2023, 04:24:39 PM

Quote from: flybynight on January 23, 2023, 05:11:47 AM

QuoteI'm no tin hatter either

Hate to say it. But you are a member of  ufo alien zombie prep site. Doesn't get anymore tin hat  :panic:

Bronze Age Europe - mighty führer of tin-hattery - might object.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1f/Cappello_d%27oro_di_berlino%2C_1000_ac_ca._01.jpg/647px-Cappello_d%27oro_di_berlino%2C_1000_ac_ca._01.jpg)

Nah, that's the reward you get from NT2C if you reach 5000 posts or sponsor 25 new members.  It used to be a gasoline-powered crockpot, but we switched to this prize instead.  More practical because it actually does deflect the gubmint subliminal gamma rays coming out of your cellphone - the ones that try to convince you the world isn't flat.  :smiley_crocodile:

https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-created-global-food-crisis.html (https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-created-global-food-crisis.html)

something to make you think

In the for-what's-its-worth column...

We shop at a military Commissary.   There are and have been empty shelves for over the last two years.  We check the best by dates on everything - as they tend to shelve items at are at or past their best buy dates.  This is nothing new - the empty shelves are not.

While an item - say potato soup - may be in stock, that stock may well be a single brand.   With cans lined up along an otherwise empty shelving unit.    

We have been carefully adding to our deep pantry.  The LTS sis more than good for us and the family still living here in town.

This, being an Election year - is bound to be full of very ugly surprises.