War in Ukraine

[mzmc]

Attempting to capitalize on the developing confrontation between Prigozhin and Putin carries significant risks for Ukraine.  Boxed onto a corner, Putin may act out of desperation or use the situation as an excuse/pretext to try something he previously considered unthinkable.

This is... a wonderfully elegant euphemism for what many people are thinking. You know, the thing. 

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Attempting to capitalize on the developing confrontation between Prigozhin and Putin carries significant risks for Ukraine.  Boxed onto a corner, Putin may act out of desperation or use the situation as an excuse/pretext to try something he previously considered unthinkable.

This is... a wonderfully elegant euphemism for what many people are thinking. You know, the thing. 

Yeah, the big spicy mushroom thing. I think practically all of us will agree that nobody wants that. But it has been in the back of everyone's mind since this whole thing kicked off.

The thing is, once you go there, there isn't any coming back.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

There are unconfirmed reports of attack helicopter and artillery strikes against the convoy to Moscow.  

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-wagner-prigozhin-rostov-on-don-live-updates-12541713

If the attack on Wagner turns out to be a Ukrainian false flag, that guy who planned it out should get a meritorious promotion. 

Either way this is a complete catastrophe for poopin.

[mzmc]

The thing is, once you go there, there isn't any coming back.

Well, no backsies, for sure. But I'd argue that it's a lot less likely to escalate into global thermonuclear war, than many people seem to believe.

[EBuff75]

The thing is, once you go there, there isn't any coming back.

Well, no backsies, for sure. But I'd argue that it's a lot less likely to escalate into global thermonuclear war, than many people seem to believe.

I doubt that Putin would use nukes inside his own country (and if he tried, I don't think that the military would follow his orders) and I think that's where he's focusing all of his attention right now.  In light of that, I think this is a golden opportunity for Ukraine to make some moves which might at least better position them for future developments (either military, or peace talks).

If Prigozhin wins and is able to depose Putin, the future of the war is uncertain.  If he were to continue it, then Ukraine might be in trouble, as he appears to have a much better sense of how things are going there and what might be needed to win.  However, since he has stated that he thinks it was a mistake to invade in the first place, he might be predisposed to try to settle things. 

After all, if he does manage to take power, he'll have a lot of work ahead of him, and getting out of Ukraine would remove a major problem area.  Working out a cease-fire/settlement with Ukraine would also allow him to start the process of trying to re-integrate Russia into the worldwide economic sphere.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Prigozhin has already said the war is bullshit. However I don't think he can defeat Vladimir Putin. Even if he did, he's facing multiple indictments for war crimes. If he were somehow to magically take over, He would parlay all that away to get a good peace deal.

That would be a pretty tall order to deliver all of that.

If the Ukrainian assessed Russian casualty numbers are correct though, they might have a chance.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Wagner's put some videos up of them shooting down helicopters on the road to Moscow. So whatever is going on it appears to be real.

There are rumors the Putin has fled the capital for St Petersburg and of the bridges going to Moscow being mined to blow.

Also Lushenko and family are reported to have fled to Turkey. That wouldn't be surprising either, he was always weak in the knees. If it all comes crashing down, his head will be on the end of a pike.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Putin Releases Statement; "That was a Crazy Game of Poker"


https://youtu.be/giXQg1QgzaQ?t=242

https://nypost.com/2023/06/24/russian-forces-head-to-moscow-putin-vows-revenge-yevgeny-prigozhin/

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-vows-revenge-for-betrayal-by-his-former-ally-prigozhin-163208431.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/24/wagner-mutiny-reflects-fault-lines-in-russia-analysts

Wait, What Just Happened In Russia? (msn.com)


Prigozhin's future is uncertain. It really depends upon what he wants now. Putin doesn't share power and Pirgozhin has stated unequivocally that he thinks the war is bullshit. If he goes back to the lines what message does that send? He needs to eke out a victory of sorts to survive.

Even more concerning is that Putin fled and the Russians literally had nothing to stop him with. This means if the Ukes win in the South they could drive to Moscow practically unopposed. We all knew the war was going poorly but that is quite a shocker.


Ukraine Reports More Plodding Gains in the Meat Grinder

Ukraine gained ground inside Ukraine as Russia faced off against Russia inside Russia (msn.com)
Fierce battles ongoing on four fronts – General Staff report (msn.com)

The Ukes would be complete fools not to take advantage of whatever is going in Russia and destroy the Russian Army.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

All Sides Declare Victory in Russian Coup, Everyone Retires to Single Story Dachas.

The Coup Is Over, but Putin Is in Trouble - The Atlantic
What happened in Russia with civil war, coup attempt? | Fortune
Wagner Group chief emerges as 'alternative leader' in Russia, won't stay banished for long: expert (msn.com)
Vladimir Putin suffers brutal blow as Russia 'covers up' deaths of 39 pilots and crew - Mirror Online
With Russia revolt over, mercenaries' future and direction of Ukraine war remain uncertain (wsfa.com)

The coup has been catastrophic for Putin. The Defense Minister and the General Running the War both were forced to retire. Winning the war is likely completely impossible now. He may not survive the fallout of both the coup and the war failing. Probably see another coup before too long, but much better organized and more swift. Wagner actually shot six helicopters and one IL-76. This is more losses in a single day then the Ukraine has inflicted during any other day in the war.


Russia Getting Desperate on the Front and it Shows

Russians drop chemical munitions on Ukraine's Armed Forces, but wind blows toward Russian occupiers (msn.com)
Putin Is Desperate: 30 Percent of Ukraine Is Covered in Minefields (msn.com)
Target Destroyed: Ukraine Footage Shows 'Excalibur' Strike on Russian Fuel Trucks (msn.com)
Putin's Next Crisis: Ukraine Is Using Long-Range Missiles to Hit Supply Lines (msn.com)
Russian military sees almost 5,000 casualties in one week of Ukrainian offensive (msn.com)

Things were already going poorly for Russia and now they are dropping like a rock. 30% of the country covered in mines? Chemical weapons? 5K casualties a week are completely unsustainable.

[Raptor]

Trying to put this 5,000 casualties in mental perspective for me.

On June 6, 1944 (Normandy) the US suffered about 6,600 casualties. The real number is debated but common generalities give these approximate counts.

there were about 1,465 American deaths, 3,184 wounded, 1,928 missing, and 26 captured.

The Russian count comes from Ukraine and they did not release their casualties. I think it is safe to assume that 5,000 is not the real or even final number but that there were a lot of dead & wounded on both sides.

This just reinforces to me the lethality of modern warfare. Who needs NBC weapons with counts in this magnitude. 

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Trying to put this 5,000 casualties in mental perspective for me.

On June 6, 1944 (Normandy) the US suffered about 6,600 casualties. The real number is debated but common generalities give these approximate counts.

there were about 1,465 American deaths, 3,184 wounded, 1,928 missing, and 26 captured.

The Russian count comes from Ukraine and they did not release their casualties. I think it is safe to assume that 5,000 is not the real or even final number but that there were a lot of dead & wounded on both sides.

This just reinforces to me the lethality of modern warfare. Who needs NBC weapons with counts in this magnitude.

In WWII 16,000,000 Americans served. Approximately 400K were KIA and nearly 700K WIA. That was over the course of 3 years of fighting and accounted for 1/16 of the force or 6.2% fighting battles all over the entire planet in the largest conflict in human history.

Allegedly the Russians have already taken 50-70K KIA and 100-150 WIA. Out of a total force of possibly as many as 3,000,000. IF we just count active forces we are looking at 1.1 million or between 14-22% of the force just counting active forces or 5-7.5% if you are going to count everyone.

In modern warfare (RL not the game) a force is generally considered defeated if it loses more than 10% of it's force in a battle or a theater. If that happens the enemy is going to be prostrate and no longer able to protect it's force from being destroyed. If not ordered to surrender many units will start to surrender on their own if they believe the enemy won't kill or badly mistreat them.

Here is the thing. They aren't doing modern warfare. It's sort of a weird ad-hoc WWI style trench warfare with some modern capabilities and a whole lot of missing pieces; but most importantly they are missing effective air power and effective recon assets and probably proper analysis as well. Their OPSEC really sucks too.  A good leader with a well led and motivated force could overcome that. But these guys not so much.

But to be fair let us put this in the WWII perspective. In the First Battle of Kiev in 1941, the Red Army lost 700,544, plus around 500K captured for a loss of 1.2M when the Red Army was completely encircled and cut off. This to the Axis loss of 61K, 12K KIA.
In the 2nd Battle of Kiev in 1943, the badly battered Nazis lost about 1/7 of their force (110K) to a smaller Soviet force which took about 7.5% casualties as part of a larger attack on all fronts. 

If these numbers seem astonishing, they are. But 34M Soviets served in WWII. They don't have those kind of numbers now, even with Belarus and Chechnya pitching in.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Senior Russian Law Maker Wants to Eat his Cake and Have it Too

Senior Russian lawmaker calls for professional army of seven million (msn.com) 

Never going to happen. They are already marching people into battle with a gun in their back.


Ukraine Retakes Territory Russia Calls it's Own

Ukraine recaptures territory held by Russia since 2014 (msn.com)
Ukraine advances in Donbas taking into account Wagner PMC coup – Deputy Defence Minister (msn.com)


This should have been a hard line for Putin, them crossing it without additional challenge tells us we are getting near the end of the game here.


Pirgozhin Decides to Return to a Quiet Life as a Saucier and Money Launderer

Wagner Group soldiers hit with ultimate humiliation (msn.com)
Lukashenko claims Prigozhin has given up his demands regarding Russia's defence minister and chief of general staff (msn.com)

Lot's of people skeptical on his odds of surviving the Summer, much less to end of year

[majorhavoc]

Russian General Knew of Wagner Chiefs Rebellion Plans

Dollars to donuts this story was deliberately leaked to further rattle Russian leadership. A lot of pieces here in play, and much yet to be revealed.

Oh what a tangled web we weave.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

Russian General Knew of Wagner Chiefs Rebellion Plans

Dollars to donuts this story was deliberately leaked to further rattle Russian leadership. A lot of pieces here in play, and much yet to be revealed.

Oh what a tangled web we weave.

I think a lot of Russian generals are going to want to avoid windows and high places for the foreseeable future.

You know, since a lot of them seem to fall out of them pretty often.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Zelinsky Finds Cheat Code "m0fr33bradlEES" For Unlimited Bradley Fills


Ukraine Situation Report: U.S. Replenishes Kyiv's Bradley Fighting Vehicle Force (msn.com)


They aren't tanks but they kill the hell out of tanks. In the Gulf War the Bradley's killed twice as many tanks as the M1A1. Of course the Ukes have already lost more in their war than the US lost in the GW.



Armageddon Arrested for yet to be Named Crimes Against Putin Russia

"Armageddon" arrested: Has Putin's purge begun? (msn.com)
"Armageddon" arrested: Has Putin's purge begun? (msn.com)
Something is rotten in the state of Russia (msn.com)

The previous theater commander performed poorly as we saw from the earlier examination of his record in this thread. After the "June 20 Plot" failure loyalty will be even more gravity based than in the past.


Ukraine Media Reports War is Going "Super"

We have managed to seize strategic initiative, there are advances – Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief (msn.com)
Russia is trying to stop Ukrainian advance at all costs – General Staff report (msn.com)

If they can make a successful penetration the war could be over quick. Haven't seen it yet. Either way, Russia is definitely losing the war in Iraq.

[Lambykins]

Top Russian generals missing?
You don't say...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-where-russias-top-generals-232340012.html

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Uke Soldiers Discover That Being Blown Up in an American IFV is World's Better Than Being Blown up in a Surplus Soviet IFV

Ukrainian soldiers credit 'perfect' US-supplied Bradley vehicles (msn.com)

One lets you live to fight another day and the other doesn't. It's almost like the Russians don't love their children too. Practically every BMP I every saw looked like Swiss Cheese simply from 50 Caliber rounds sailing right through.


Russian Sleeper Agent Arranges Assassination by Artillery of Ukraine Generals.

Russian Agent Filmed Restaurant Before Missile Attack, Ukraine Says (businessinsider.com)
Kyiv claims gains in Donbas, Moscow says killed Ukraine generals (msn.com)

Notice how Russia is directly borrowing Western and Israeli terrorist whacking techniques. This is why the Pentagon always orders out for Pizzas.  No need to risk getting whacked at Panera Bread just to get a Green Goddess Salad.


Ukrainian Sniper Blown up by Grenade, Captured and Tortured; Answers to the Name "Lucky"

Ukrainian soldier says several Russian snipers failed to hit him even after he was wounded because 'they kind of sucked' (msn.com)

War is Hell.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Putin Targeted For Elimination, Saved by Russian FSO

Putin Narrowly Escapes Assassination Attempt as Russian Secret Service Thwarts Moscow Bridge Explosion (msn.com)

Things are staying spicy for Putin. Kind of curious to see who dies first, Putin or Pirgozhin. It's win-win either way.


Putin Said to be Disciplining Pilots Who Refused to Attack Wagner

Russian flyers who disobeyed orders to attack Wagner forces may be caught up in Putin's dragnet (msn.com)

Seems like it is always stick and never the carrot with this guy.


Putin Deletes Prigozhin's Number, Found Weeping in Bedroom of 100 Room Chalet While Gorging on 10 liter Tub of 11 Kopecks choc-ice

'Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again': Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord (msn.com)
Prigozhin dissolves his media empire – report (msn.com)

Prigozhin was quoted as saying; "If he [Putin] wasn't such a little bitch this never would have happened. Always listening to rumors from his little army friends and never taking a word from me. They are a bunch of lying bitches too. I don't even care anymore. If I cared I would have drove to Moscow and shown them what's up. But if they don't shut their medovek holes I'ma gonna to go on a whoride over there with my crew and spin the bend, punk asses." At least that is what my google translate said when I held it up to the screen while he was talking. Not responsible for errors.

[Raptor]

An interesting link to Rublyovka mentioned in one of the articles above.

This is the where the new Russian monarchy & nobles live.

https://www.home-designing.com/2011/06/rublevka-where-russias-super-elite-live

Compare this to the former residence of 3 soviet Premiers.
https://blogs.ed.ac.uk/docomomoiscul/2014/09/08/moscowkutuzovsky-prospekt/

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Prigozhin Returns To St. Petersburg Area Dacha, Picks Up an AK, AR, Steyr-Mannlicher Rifleand $111M in Cash

Prigozhin arrives in St Petersburg, takes back seized weapons (msn.com)
Russia Returns $111M Seized During Police Raids to Prigozhin (msn.com)

"4 billion rubles ($47 million) from a parked minivan. Fontanka later wrote that another 6 billion rubles ($66.7 million) were seized inside 80 cardboard boxes" . With the crazy price on ammo in Russia these days everyone needs a little traveling around money when we go on those big range trips. It was absolutely in no way money that was being laundered as part of a criminal enterprise. That is like 31% certain. I do wonder though, with all the vehicle break-ins how safe that money really is?


Russia Honors US With 4th of July Fireworks Show

Moment Russian ammunition depot in occupied Makiivka explodes in giant fireball | Watch (msn.com)

Be sure to catch the grand finale at about the .40 mark. It's spectacular!


Russia Proposes a Way Ahead on Peace in the Ukraine, Could End War in Less Than Week

War would end within days if West stopped arming Ukraine, Russia says: Live updates (msn.com)

I'm not going to say the plan doesn't have merit. But doubtful they Ukes will agree.


Ukrainian Male Soldiers Swimming in Pichka

Soldier Kink Sweeps Ukraine: Messages Surge When We're Kicking Putin's Butt (yahoo.com)

Some of us have those problems where so many women are texting us looking for hook-ups that we just don't have enough time to treat them all fairly. It's all about scheduling and setting a proper OML. Sure, you can't always see them all during liberty but you can have them work out some kind of group time.