War in Ukraine

[majorhavoc]

In Washington, Putin's Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

OK, all "Rah-rah! Go Ukraine Go!" aside, how worried should we be?  I'm a child of the Cold War; I came of age literally having nuclear nightmares.  (Literally, not: haha, lol! I totally mean figuratively ROFLMAO!  )

No judgement towards anyone else, but I've always thought potassium iodine tablets were a ridiculous prep.  I really, really thought this shit was behind us.

For their part, Russian analysts and officials see the specter of nuclear conflict as giving a distinct advantage to their side. Because the outcome of the war in Ukraine is of existential significance to the Kremlin, but not to the White House, they say, Russian officials seem to believe they would have the advantage in the test of wills that nuclear brinkmanship represents.

Dmitri A. Medvedev, a former Russian president and the hawkish vice chairman of Mr. Putin's Security Council, laid out that thesis this past week in a post on the Telegram social network. If Russia were forced to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, he argued, it was unlikely that NATO would intervene militarily because of the risk that a direct attack on Russia could lead to all-out nuclear war."Overseas and European demagogues are not going to perish in a nuclear apocalypse," he wrote.  "Therefore, they will swallow the use of any weapon in the current conflict."

As the full extent of Ukraine's gains in its September counteroffensive became apparent, the Biden administration intensified its study of the steps that Mr. Putin might take to reverse the perception that the Russian Army was losing the war. Administration officials quickly saw some of their predictions come true, as Mr. Putin announced a mobilization of military reserves despite the dissent it provoked.

Now, with the annexation of Ukrainian territory, worry is rising in Washington. Should Ukraine be able to build on its success, and Mr. Putin face humiliating defeat, U.S. officials are concerned he might quickly push through the remaining steps and consider the use of a nuclear weapon.

[NT2C]

There is so much I want to say here regarding how this is shaping up but... fucking politics. 

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

As much as I like playing the Fallout series of games, I'd really rather not play "Fallout: Real Life" any time soon.

[flybynight]

As much as I've loudly and proudly stated I'm never bugging out. I have been as rapidly as possible assembling an INCH bag 

[RickOShea]

Welp, this certainly wasn't on my 2022 Bingo card....


https://signmyrocket.com/

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

That's not the weirdest way to spend 2 grand I've seen, but it's at least in the top ten.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

In Washington, Putin's Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

OK, all "Rah-rah! Go Ukraine Go!" aside, how worried should we be?  I'm a child of the Cold War; I came of age literally having nuclear nightmares.  (Literally, not: haha, lol! I totally mean figuratively ROFLMAO! )

.....snip....I really, really thought this shit was behind us.


[/font]

I totally get that as I am also a child of Cold War with those same nightmares.

It's so wierd to me that the beginning and ending of my life would have this same fear.

Frack, talking about this has activated my amygdala which is charging my nervous system with the shakes again.

This is just so fucking shitty.

[Zed hunter]

I remember watching the shoe pounding on the news.

[tirls]

OK, all "Rah-rah! Go Ukraine Go!" aside, how worried should we be?  I'm a child of the Cold War; I came of age literally having nuclear nightmares.  (Literally, not: haha, lol! I totally mean figuratively ROFLMAO!  )

No judgement towards anyone else, but I've always thought potassium iodine tablets were a ridiculous prep.  I really, really thought this shit was behind us.

According to my mum we're to close to Switzerland where a lot of Russian oligarchs have their money for Russia to drop a bomb on.
Having said that, some of their leading politicians aren't exactly smart. This is the same country, whose defence minister thinks that calling 300.000 reservists of their total 2.000.000 equals 1%. Lavrov isn't the brightest bulb either.

Russia does have more nuclear warheads than the combined NATO so theoretically they could do a lot of harm. They have also shown a complete disregard to the dangers of damages to the Zaporizhzhia plant or the dome at Chernobyl would cause, despite being perilously close to their own border, and a complete disregard in general to the welfare of their own people (Dubrovka Theatre for example).
I don't think they are threatening with anything they aren't prepared to do, however at this point in time I don't think they see it as an advantage or are incited to do it.

I just want to bash Putins, Bidens and Selenskyj heads together, all of them are turning out to be a rhetorical disaster regarding the escalation of this fuck.
Preparing for a full out nuclear war isn't something that is plausible on a regular salary aside from being prepared to leave an area swiftly if there is an inclination for a hit so I'm not overly worried about it. I'm going to leave the political manouvering to prevent such a scenario to people a lot smarter than me and complain about their endeavours instead.

[NT2C]

I'm 45 miles (straight line) from the White House so I figure prepping for a nuke strike here is like trying to prep to hold back a tsunami.

[tirls]

I'm 45 miles (straight line) from the White House so I figure prepping for a nuke strike here is like trying to prep to hold back a tsunami.

For as little as $7900 you can get yourself a tsunami pod

[majorhavoc]

Well if it's a nuke strike you're worried about, a tsunami pod is no substitute for the Frigidaire.  The #1 choice of globe-trotting archeologists everywhere! 

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

I'm 45 miles (straight line) from the White House so I figure prepping for a nuke strike here is like trying to prep to hold back a tsunami.

For as little as $7900 you can get yourself a tsunami pod

I know it's advertised as a tsunami pod, but all I see is a giant orange Magic 8 Ball.

Now all I want to see is someone take a bunch of these, spray paint them different colors, put numbers on them and make a giant billiards game with them.

[majorhavoc]

I know it's advertised as a tsunami pod, but all I see is a giant orange Magic 8 ball. 

Q: Will Russia use nuclear weapons?

[RoneKiln]

As scary as nukes can be, I am more concerned of a precedent being set that threatening with nukes lets a bully conquer their neighbors.

If that precedent gets set, things will get much worse in a lot of the world.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

I know it's advertised as a tsunami pod, but all I see is a giant orange Magic 8 ball. 

Q: Will Russia use nuclear weapons?

Uhh....does that mean the outlook of using nuclear weapons, or that our outlook isn't good because of using nuclear weapons?  

[Mr. E. Monkey]

As scary as nukes can be, I am more concerned of a precedent being set that threatening with nukes lets a bully conquer their neighbors.

If that precedent gets set, things will get much worse in a lot of the world.

Indeed.  It would massively incentivize smaller countries to acquire or develop their own nukes, and eventually somebody would end up using them.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

I know it's advertised as a tsunami pod, but all I see is a giant orange Magic 8 ball. 

Q: Will Russia use nuclear weapons?

Uhh....does that mean the outlook of using nuclear weapons, or that our outlook isn't good because of using nuclear weapons?   

Both.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Russia does have more nuclear warheads than the combined NATO so theoretically they could do a lot of harm.

In theory, yes.

In reality, those warheads are expensive to maintain, and fortunately, Russia has demonstrated that they have an abysmal record of maintaining their equipment or their budget.  


An older op-ed from Brookings.edu (1997) provided the following info:

In fact, total U.S. nuclear weapons spending in 1997 will exceed $34 billion, about 13 percent of the defense budget. Of that amount, nearly $26 billion goes toward operating, maintaining, modernizing, and controlling our existing arsenal of nearly 10,400 warheads and bombs, 575 ICBMs, 408 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 102 bombers and 17 ballistic missile submarines. These costs alone consume 10 percent of all military spending, 2½ times more than Messrs. Scowcroft and Kanter's figure. The remaining 3 percent? more than $8 billion? includes nuclear waste management and environmental remediation, nuclear weapons safeguard and security measures, a portion of the naval nuclear propulsion program, nuclear weapons dismantlement, arms control verification, non-proliferation programs and ballistic missile defense research.

Russia's defense budget in 2013 was $88.35B, and has been trending downward ever since, to $61.71B in 2020.


Likely around half of their total military budget would need to go into maintaining their nuclear arsenal, but from what we've seen of their military in Ukraine so far, much of it seems to have padded pockets, rather than maintaining equipment.  And that's the stuff that they might reasonably expect to actually need to use.

I expect that their functioning nuclear arsenal is a tiny fraction of what they have on paper, but I still hope we never have to find out!

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

Given the poor condition Russia's tanks and other equipment has been shown to be in, I kind of wonder now if their nukes all say "ACME" on the side.