War in Ukraine

[NT2C]

I know it's hard not to get deep into the politics of this, and that we'd have to ban any discussion of the war at all if we want a total blackout of all the political stuff.  We're not doing that here and we are relaxing the rules a lot for this but we do ask that raw politics be kept to a minimum.

[majorhavoc]

I know it's hard not to get deep into the politics of this, and that we'd have to ban any discussion of the war at all if we want a total blackout of all the political stuff.  We're not doing that here and we are relaxing the rules a lot for this but we do ask that raw politics be kept to a minimum.

Thank you; that's a good and timely reminder.  I will say this about the latest revelations/discoveries coming out of Bucha and other communities from which the Russians have withdrawn: I don't really understand people's shock and surprise that atrocities were committed.  War is a brutal, punishing, profoundly violent human contrivance where the innocents always suffer.  It's been that way from the dawn of time and will continue for as long as human beings believe killing each other is a viable means to an end.  I see no reason to expect that warfare, especially urban warfare, will somehow have become sanitized in this day and age.  Atrocities occur in any kind of armed conflict and civilians are always the ones who suffer the most.   I'm in no way justifying or explaining away what is happening in Ukraine.  It's just then whenever and where ever the bullets start flying, when the bombs begin falling; it's always, ALWAYS the innocent who bear the brunt of it.  We shouldn't be surprised this is happening.

To bring this around to the prepping perspective: in a sustained WROL/SHTF scenario, things will get horrific for those who are the most vulnerable. We are human beings, after all.  We're very good at finding excuses to hate each other.  And even better at acting on that hatred. 

[Raptor]

 Well said on all counts...unfortunately your observations are correct.

[Johan]

I don't really understand people's shock and surprise that atrocities were committed.  War is a brutal, punishing, profoundly violent human contrivance where the innocents always suffer.  It's been that way from the dawn of time and will continue for as long as human beings believe killing each other is a viable means to an end.  I see no reason to expect that warfare, especially urban warfare, will somehow have become sanitized in this day and age.  Atrocities occur in any kind of armed conflict and civilians are always the ones who suffer the most.   I'm in no way justifying or explaining away what is happening in Ukraine.  It's just then whenever and where ever the bullets start flying, when the bombs begin falling; it's always, ALWAYS the innocent who bear the brunt of it.  We shouldn't be surprised this is happening.

To bring this around to the prepping perspective: in a sustained WROL/SHTF scenario, things will get horrific for those who are the most vulnerable. We are human beings, after all.  We're very good at finding excuses to hate each other.  And even better at acting on that hatred.

I strongly disagree, there is a World of difference between for example the (relatively few) civilians ending up as casualties when the USA and others invaded Iraq or Afghanistan, and Russia's terrorbombing of Mariopol and other cities, their systematic targeting of Hospitals and what happened in Bucha (which as we get more info from other places liberated from the russians I believe we we'll find is not an isolated incident ) 

[Moab]

I have to agree with, Johan. I'm an ex Marine. I understand collateral damage and the fog of war. But this is not that. This is the purposefull targeting of civilians. And literal carpet bombings of entire cities. With no regard for civilian lives - women, children, men. They have gone into towns and killed all males of military age. Raped women and videotaped it. Left people in the streets with their hands tied behind their back and then executing them. There is video of this on CNN tonight.

This type of disregard for civilian life has not been seen since WWII. Its why we have the Geneva Convention. Not that that means a hill of beans. But we did'nt even do this in Iraq or Afghanistan. We were certainly guilty of carpet bombing Vietnam. I am no historian. But I don't think we purposely carpet bombed cities full of civilians. Or bombed hospitals or schools on purpose.

Even if you play devils advocate and say they arent sending bombs to specific targets. When you bomb an entire city to the point that 70% of it is gone (this was reported today on CNN. I forget the name of the town) and the other 30% is damaged. Your bombing every civilian location in the city. Hospitals, schools, museums, apartment buildings, homes...

This is bordering on genocide. If nothing else the purposefull killing of civilians. That is not just a part of war. Yes, collateral damage exists. Bombs and morters and bullets dont always find their intended target. But in this instance the target is not just military personnel or just military locations. Its the eradication of complete civilian population centers. 

[Mr. E. Monkey]

This is bordering on genocide. If nothing else the purposefull killing of civilians. That is not just a part of war. Yes, collateral damage exists. Bombs and morters and bullets dont always find their intended target. But in this instance the target is not just military personnel or just military locations. Its the eradication of complete civilian population centers.

That's the key difference here.  In this case, the bombs and bullets did find their targets--civilians.  All that said,

To bring this around to the prepping perspective: in a sustained WROL/SHTF scenario, things will get horrific for those who are the most vulnerable. We are human beings, after all.  We're very good at finding excuses to hate each other.  And even better at acting on that hatred. 

...this is very much something we should all keep in mind. 

Lady, people aren't chocolates. Do you know what they are mostly? Bastards. Bastard coated bastards with bastard filling.

We can be better, and those of us who know better must do better.

[NT2C]

Ahem... no nation at war is free from atrocities, not even this star-spangled, red, white, and blue homeland of mine.  While we may have greatly reduced it in recent years, you don't have to go far back in our history to find some horrific examples, such as My Lai (Vietnam War) or the firebombing of mostly wood and paper enemy cities as we did to Japan (WWII).

Back to the matter at hand, I am sure there will become known more than a few instances of retaliatory Ukrainian atrocities.  Such is the brutal nature of war when "a lesson" is wanting to be taught.  This is the same between countries as it was back on the merciless streets of the NYC tenements and housing projects I grew up in.

[NT2C]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/twsjej/this_dog_is_named_patron_and_helps_to_locate/

Russia is using landmines in Ukraine.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

Does Russia just have a big book of dick moves or what ?

I figured landmines were banned under the Geneva Convention or some agreement between countries, but given Russia's lack of giving a crap that we've seen thus far, I'm thinking Russia doesn't care about that.

[Raptor]

Just to be clear I do not think anyone here is condoning or justifying military action against civilians. In war innocents and civilians always bear the brunt of the misery.

Another thing to remember is that misinformation, disinformation and simple propaganda is a common tool of all parties. A person should always be deeply skeptical of anything presented as facts; "Deep Fakes" are real. The dehumanizing of an enemy is the oldest propaganda ploy in the book. One way to do that is paint them as barbarous murders of innocents.

Again I am not disputing any claim by any party only that IMO any claim need to be received with some level of skepticism. I am 99.9999% certain that civilians were killed in Russian attacks, that atrocities against civilians were perpetrated  and that there was retaliation by Ukrainians.

I can say this because of the second sentence in this post. It would be miraculous if there were no such incidents. 

[Moab]

I totally agree about the propaganda. Im a huge skeptic. I believe  that very few of the last several wars, since maybe korea, have been about anything but the selling of military arms and/or oil. I quit thinking long ago that thats worth putting your life on the line for - for the muddy motives of another american war. The military changed me a great deal. If someone invaded i would be on the front lines. But very few of our conflicts have been anywhere near that clear. And propaganda has been a big part of that deception.

Having said that. I literally hate quoting cnn as a news source. I rarely watch network news. And much prefer the few independant outlets u can find. But watching just the videos and photos (which i know can be faked) its alarming some of the stuff coming out of ukraine. Or even whats coming thru telegram. Which alot of cnn and the other networks cite as a source.

I did serve in the Marine Corps. As did my father. And his father. But I am nothing like what you would expect a Marine to be. I graduated college. Worked in theater, television and film as an actor. Have had more than one successful company. I have had a diversity of experiences in my life. I am neither left nor right.

But the rules of war - handed down since Lincoln - mean something to me. Its a huge stain on the military and countries that perpetrate it. And should mean something to the world. Not because your ra ra USA. Or any other country. But for simple respect for soldiers sent blindly to fight others wars (which is usually the case. I admire those who fought in wars without that moral conflict.) and care for simple human life.

If true. The thing i am surpised about is putins use of these tactics. He must know how much the world hates this war to begin with. But to tarnish your incursion further with the use of atrocities(?). Just seems foolish. It doesnt seem like its helping him tactically. Or any other way. And hes a smart dude. If you follow his career he grew up as a hungry child whos family lived in an apartment with several other families. He cunningly worked his way up from the bottom. So it surpises me that he would not be more suffisticated. But then again his tactics coming up were very brutal indeed.

There were white nationalist or nazi militias in Ukraine. Prior to this. You can see the documentaries about them from years ago on youtube. But its like 12 guys training in a field somewhere. With very little military training. Falling far short of what you could call a national movement. But it did exist in Ukraine before this. And thata not being mentioned in the mainstream media.

But putin has brainwashed and directed his troops so much in that direction (and the general population of russia) that they are rounding up entire towns and torturing and questioning people to "give up the nazis". It would be comical if it werent so serious for the villagers. It sounds so outlandish though.

I only hope that this is not widespread like so many civilians and news orgs are stating. Bucha was just one of the first towns they have been able to go back into after the russians left. And Ukraine has invited any of the leading experts on atrocities and genocide to come see for themselves. Which at the very least shows their willingness for transparency.

The drone footage and satellite images of cities completely flattened is disturbing. It looks like towns in Germany that we flattened towards the end of WWII. Which were atrocities as well. Not to mention Japan. Whether justified or not. The victors write history - right?

Yes. It could all be faked. But its just so much information at this point. To many videos. To many photos. To many reports from ukrainians and people outside of the mainstream media. Everyone has their motives. But when you have an uncensored forum like telegram allowing common citizens to relay their own experiences in real time. And they match up so much with the media accounts. Its hard to look the other way. Or imagine this to be one huge cia operation. But who knows. Coming weeks, months and years will tell the truth.

[Moab]

I know it's hard not to get deep into the politics of this, and that we'd have to ban any discussion of the war at all if we want a total blackout of all the political stuff.  We're not doing that here and we are relaxing the rules a lot for this but we do ask that raw politics be kept to a minimum.

Thank you; that's a good and timely reminder.  I will say this about the latest revelations/discoveries coming out of Bucha and other communities from which the Russians have withdrawn: I don't really understand people's shock and surprise that atrocities were committed.  War is a brutal, punishing, profoundly violent human contrivance where the innocents always suffer.  It's been that way from the dawn of time and will continue for as long as human beings believe killing each other is a viable means to an end.  I see no reason to expect that warfare, especially urban warfare, will somehow have become sanitized in this day and age.  Atrocities occur in any kind of armed conflict and civilians are always the ones who suffer the most.   I'm in no way justifying or explaining away what is happening in Ukraine.  It's just then whenever and where ever the bullets start flying, when the bombs begin falling; it's always, ALWAYS the innocent who bear the brunt of it.  We shouldn't be surprised this is happening.

To bring this around to the prepping perspective: in a sustained WROL/SHTF scenario, things will get horrific for those who are the most vulnerable. We are human beings, after all.  We're very good at finding excuses to hate each other.  And even better at acting on that hatred. 

I didn't mean to jump on you personally, majorhavic. I have known your kind nature enough years on here  - to know you meant no offense.

I think i just took issue with the statement "I don't really understand people's shock and surprise that atrocities were committed".

I just think we should be shocked and surprised.

I think at this point that people have seen enough of war to not want any of this. Even if the taking over of another country is justified. Which I personally don't think it is. And even if the deaths of civilians is completely accidental. I think we have all had enough of this. Whether its supported or perpetrated by the west or the east. Your right. Its always the people that pay. Whether you be a soldier or a civilian.

I am so sickened by the world economy. And whatever its dependance is on the military industrial complex or oil. Somewhere, someday, our world has to realize - we are just two guys having a knife fight over a life raft.

I just hope we don't all drown one day.

[Raptor]

If true. The thing i am surpised about is putins use of these tactics. He must know how much the world hates this war to begin with. But to tarnish your incursion further with the use of atrocities(?). Just seems foolish. It doesnt seem like its helping him tactically. Or any other way. And hes a smart dude. If you follow his career he grew up as a hungry child whos family lived in an apartment with several other families. He cunningly worked his way up from the bottom. So it surpises me that he would not be more suffisticated. But then again his tactics coming up were very brutal indeed.

I agree with this. I have yet to understand the logic employed by Putin here. I can only guess that he underestimated the resistance that Ukraine would mount and over estimated the capability of his troops. Most likely he did both.

Honestly I assumed that Putin had a quick path to victory all lined up. He chose the time, date and places of the battle; he did not face any need to rush the attack.

If Ukraine surrendered within 48 hours he likely would not have faced the furry from all parties (they clearly expected sanctions) but not to the extent that Russia now suffers. He clearly counted on Russian gas as a lever and to that extent he is correct but I suspect that asset seizure was not something that was factored into the equation.

But again the logic behind this is not clear to me.

Russia really did not have much to gain by this and the risk of embarrassment is great.
If Russia is defeated (think the Russo-Japanese War) or even fails in the attempt; they will look very weak to the chicoms and the west. While at the same time drive a wedge between their border neighbors. 

The logic eludes me. Kinda like Russia going to war in WW-1.
   

[majorhavoc]

If true. The thing i am surpised about is putins use of these tactics. He must know how much the world hates this war to begin with. But to tarnish your incursion further with the use of atrocities(?). Just seems foolish. It doesnt seem like its helping him tactically. Or any other way. And hes a smart dude. If you follow his career he grew up as a hungry child whos family lived in an apartment with several other families. He cunningly worked his way up from the bottom. So it surpises me that he would not be more suffisticated. But then again his tactics coming up were very brutal indeed.

I agree with this. I have yet to understand the logic employed by Putin here. I can only guess that he underestimated the resistance that Ukraine would mount and over estimated the capability of his troops. Most likely he did both.

Honestly I assumed that Putin had a quick path to victory all lined up. He chose the time, date and places of the battle; he did not face any need to rush the attack.

If Ukraine surrendered within 48 hours he likely would not have faced the furry from all parties (they clearly expected sanctions) but not to the extent that Russia now suffers. He clearly counted on Russian gas as a lever and to that extent he is correct but I suspect that asset seizure was not something that was factored into the equation.

But again the logic behind this is not clear to me.

Russia really did not have much to gain by this and the risk of embarrassment is great.
If Russia is defeated (think the Russo-Japanese War) or even fails in the attempt; they will look very weak to the chicoms and the west. While at the same time drive a wedge between their border neighbors. 

The logic eludes me. Kinda like Russia going to war in WW-1.

My theory is that Putin never set out to commit atrocities, but that his army turned out to be much less disciplined and prepared than his advisors led him to believe.  For instance, apparently he honestly didn't know that a significant portion of the invasion force was comprised of conscripts.  Many of whom were given very misleading information, if not outright lies, about what to expect.  They were sent in thinking they'd be welcomed by a grateful populace eager to be freed from a corrupt, Nazi regime.  And that the obviously inferior and conflicted Ukrainian military would put up only token resistance before throwing down their arms and heralding their liberators.   

Instead, they ran headlong into the lethal buzzsaw that the Ukrainian defense forces have proven themselves to be.  Have seen many of their comrades slaughtered by an unexpectedly determined, resourceful enemy, they entered the towns that they were able to subdue frustrated, scared and demoralized.  And there they encountered a populace that treated them with open distain and derision, the final insult.  Combine that with very poor logistics (inadequate food, clothing, medical support, etc) and a general lack of command support.  The unsupervised troops likely took out their frustrations on the local populations.  The occupying force ran amok and ordinary Ukrainians paid the price.       

[EBuff75]

It may also be a real-world example of what was seen in the Stanford Prison Experiment.  In this case, the Russians became the guards and decided to inflict pain on "prisoners", knowing that there was little chance of being held accountable for anything.  Add in the top-down nature of the Russian army, and you could also be looking at the Obedience to Authority (Milgram Experiment) where soldiers do whatever they're told to do, even if it is abhorrent and something which they wouldn't otherwise do.  It just turns into another case of "I was just following orders."

The frustrations outlined by Raptor likely played a significant role as well and putting these all together could be / is very, very bad.

[Moab]

I wonder how many mercenaries from places like Syria/Chechnya are in the region?

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

I wonder how many mercenaries from places like Syria/Chechnya are in the region?

I was just wondering that myself, Moab. I'm also wondering if the Bucha massacre was done by actual Russian soldiers or Chechen/Syrian mercs.

[Moab]

Anderson Cooper had some interesting guests on tonight. Apparently there is another town that is worse than Bucha. They showed a tortured body in this old woman's backyard. She and her husband came back after the Russians had moved out. They had been ransacking and living in her house.

Gen. Milley said today in front of congress that chances are increasing for major international conflict.

They listed off the various regions and countries that could become more unstable from the raising of prices for food and oil and food scarcity in general was a larger list than i had imagined. Russia and Ukraine supply 30% of the worlds wheat.

Several military leaders and analysts have said this could go on for years. Which is something i had not thought of.

[wee drop o bush]

A BBC News article about how the war in Ukraine is affecting production of sunflower oil which is used in so many familiar foodstuffs. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60941091

At the moment, Ukrainian farmers should be sowing the seeds now for the harvest in October and November.
"Clearly that's not going to happen... we're probably going to miss the season so we could be impacted for 12-18 months."

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Apparently there is another town that is worse than Bucha.

Is it Mariupol, or is the list still growing.  Yeah, I know, the list will continue to grow.