War in Ukraine

[majorhavoc]

Putin and his cronies are certainly making a laughing stock of Russia, but I wonder if he's holding back.  Could it be a trap? 

Anyway, I had a dream that Ukraine won and then invaded Russia and won that, too, and Russia was broken up into several sovereign states.  It was a nice dream.

Not that my own geopolitical analysis really counts for anything, but I don't think it's a trap.  Putin has far more to lose right now demonstrating his military's incompetence than he stands to gain lulling the west into underestimating it.  For all its destructive power, a strong military's greatest strategic value comes from NOT using it, but selectively reminding your adversaries that you might.  Think "gunboat diplomacy".

But I do think he's been holding back, hoping for a quick collapse of Ukrainian resistance and a relatively sanitized operation with minimal collateral damage.  That would help him minimize international outrage and repair his standing internationally relatively quickly as the west forgets/loses interest.  As it so often does.  But that hasn't happened has it?  Holding back hasn't yielded the results Putin was hoping for.  I fear he's decided to do this the hard way.     


https://youtube.com/watch?v=pnEMkqteC6w?t=155

[Crosscut]

Putin and his cronies are certainly making a laughing stock of Russia, but I wonder if he's holding back.  Could it be a trap? 

Anyway, I had a dream that Ukraine won and then invaded Russia and won that, too, and Russia was broken up into several sovereign states.  It was a nice dream.

Not that my own geopolitical analysis really counts for anything, but I don't think it's a trap.  Putin has far more to lose right now demonstrating his military's incompetence than he stands to gain lulling the west into underestimating it.  For all its destructive power, a strong military's greatest strategic value comes from NOT using it, but selectively reminding your adversaries that you might.  Think "gunboat diplomacy".

But I do think he's been holding back, hoping for a quick collapse of Ukrainian resistance and a relatively sanitized operation with minimal collateral damage.  That would help him minimize international outrage and repair his standing internationally relatively quickly as the west forgets/loses interest.  As it so often does.  But that hasn't happened has it?  Holding back hasn't yielded the results Putin was hoping for.  I fear he's decided to do this the hard way.     


https://youtube.com/watch?v=pnEMkqteC6w?t=155

That makes sense to me, and like the Die Hard analogy, but remember too that we're working with an incomplete set of information.  I was a Navy cryptologic tech during Perestroika and the first Gulf War, at work I had access to some of the classified analysis, reports, and communications about what was going on, and then I'd go home and watch CNN.  Often what was reported on the news was either inaccurate or just not as concerning as they thought it was, while some of the most important information or significant events weren't reported at all.  Today, Russia might be achieving many of their military objectives or the whole operation could be a dismal failure and we wouldn't know, and maybe never know. 

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Yes men who don't value the lives of anybody socially below them, to boot.  If lives are an expendable resource, who cares if they get the supplies they need.

Russian supplies are a precious resource and must be used as judiciously as possible.  Russian people?  Meh, they can always make more.
--Putin, probably

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Putin and his cronies are certainly making a laughing stock of Russia, but I wonder if he's holding back.  Could it be a trap? 

I'm sure that's what he'd like everybody to think, but I doubt it. 
 
Russia has been having tire trouble.  Trucks getting stuck and being abandoned because of flat tires caused by dry rot.  This speaks to a failure of maintenance, logistics, and crucially, manpower:

   
• If the vehicles had been inspected properly, it's likely that at least some of that dry rot could have been identified prior to war special military operations.
• If they had enough new tires for these vehicles, they could have been replaced, ideally before they blew out.
• If they had enough manpower, they could have inspected these tires and could have seen the problem.  Also,
• If they had enough manpower, they could have been using these vehicles, and would probably have been able to prevent a lot of that dry rot.

If Russia had the proper manpower and equipment, and the logistics to support it, I think we'd be seeing a very different situation in Ukraine right now.  Instead, Russia is bringing out biplanes because they have not been able to disrupt Ukraine's anti-air systems enough to control the skies.  https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-may-use-soviet-biplanes-to-find-ukraine-air-defenses-2022-3


Obviously, Russia hasn't committed their entire force to Ukraine, as they have other borders to protect, and need forces in place elsewhere.  As it is, it appears that the forces they had available for this action are nearly entirely committed.

It's more likely that Russia anticipated this action to be as quick and easy as the Crimea, and weren't prepared for a prolonged engagement like this.  Considering the effect that the current situation is having on their economy, it would be a very expensive trap.

Anyway, I had a dream that Ukraine won and then invaded Russia and won that, too, and Russia was broken up into several sovereign states.  It was a nice dream.

Can I cross my fingers and hope that it's a premonition, and not just a dream?   

[Anianna]

It's just really hard for me to even fathom the Russian military being in this state of disrepair and neglect.  I grew up being taught that Russia was the only real military power that could stand toe to toe with the U.S. on its own and only in part due to its nuclear prowess.  If you're bluffing that hard, showing your cards is a pretty daggum big gamble. 

Now I'm questioning if they even have viable nuclear capabilities.  Not that I want to find out first hand.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Same, honestly.  It really makes you wonder.

[mzmc]

The issue with that notion, is that if you've got the largest nuclear arsenal in the world (both deployed and in reserve), the percentage that are functional can be pretty damn low. 

That also extends to delivery systems.

[majorhavoc]

It's just really hard for me to even fathom the Russian military being in this state of disrepair and neglect.  I grew up being taught that Russia was the only real military power that could stand toe to toe with the U.S. on its own and only in part due to its nuclear prowess.  If you're bluffing that hard, showing your cards is a pretty daggum big gamble. 

Now I'm questioning if they even have viable nuclear capabilities.  Not that I want to find out first hand.

Pre-Soviet collapse that was true, or at least as far as we could know. But in the years immediately following the dissolution of the USSR, that vaunted military machine languished, highlighted by embarrassing miscues in Chechnya and debacles like the Kursk disaster. Putin has spent the past 20 years thoroughly modernizing the Russian military. And their performance in places like Syria seemed to bear that out. But as the past 2 weeks have proven, a loosely organized popular uprising isn't the same thing as a reasonably modern military opponent operating with uncommon skill and resourcefulness.

And in any case, as is often said, no plan survives first contact with the enemy.

[Raptor]

One thing to bear in mind an invading force always needs mass generally 2x to 4x the opposing force. 130,000 men is a lot of force but no where near the 2x to 4x needed. Also the really surprising thing to me is the lack of airpower. The vaunted mi-24 and other more modern era attack helos do not seem to be making a difference. There are no TU-95's engaging in carpet bombing. Makes me wonder why.

I suspect that the Russians were overly confident and drank some of their own koolaide ala the first Finnish-Soviet Winter War where the USSR got handed its gonads but still won some parts of Finland which BTW that war was concluded March 12, 1940...maybe the Ides of March in 2022 will see something similar.

I would note that the Soviet-Polish War of 1920 did not go very well for Russian either.

[mzmc]

On a lighter note (god knows we need that):


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HemqNvks-vk

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

I haven't really seen much about this online, but I've heard that something like 3K Americans have volunteered to go help the Ukrainians fight off the Russians.

Same thing with the supposedly 100 Japanese citizens the Japanese government is allowing to go help the Ukrainians.

[Anianna]

They bombed a children's and maternity hospital.   

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

They bombed a children's and maternity hospital.   

Oh, that's a dick move.

Then again, this whole invasion has been a dick move on Putin's part.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

The issue with that notion, is that if you've got the largest nuclear arsenal in the world (both deployed and in reserve), the percentage that are functional can be pretty damn low. 

That also extends to delivery systems.

Ah, you and your pesky facts.   

[Mr. E. Monkey]

They bombed a children's and maternity hospital.   

What, they didn't think they were hated enough yet?  "Hmm, how can we make sure everybody knows we're the bad guys?  Aha!  I've got it!"

[Anianna]

A potentially interesting development:

UN atomic watchdog loses contact with second nuclear plant in Ukraine

Both the Zaporizhzhia and the Chernobyl plants are now no longer transmitting data.

https://www.livescience.com/zaphorizhzhia-comms-cut

The nuclear material and activity in these facilities is no longer being monitored.  Of note, Chernobyl has been removed from the power grid and, while that means there is no active cooling, there should be sufficient heat dispersion without active cooling, but also the security system is offline.  Ukraine's power authority says there is no way to restore power to the facility, but Belarus claims it is sending a team to restore power.

[majorhavoc]

A potentially interesting development:

UN atomic watchdog loses contact with second nuclear plant in Ukraine

Both the Zaporizhzhia and the Chernobyl plants are now no longer transmitting data.

https://www.livescience.com/zaphorizhzhia-comms-cut

The nuclear material and activity in these facilities is no longer being monitored.  Of note, Chernobyl has been removed from the power grid and, while that means there is no active cooling, there should be sufficient heat dispersion without active cooling, but also the security system is offline.  Ukraine's power authority says there is no way to restore power to the facility, but Belarus claims it is sending a team to restore power.

I've been wondering why the Russians made securing Chernobyl an early priority.  If their back up plan involves extorting the Ukrainian government into surrendering or they'll turn the country into an uninhabitable wasteland, that would redefine "dick move".  Or possibly, their plan could be even simpler: forget the extortion.  Just turn a significant portion of Ukraine into said uninhabitable wasteland and there's Putin's land buffer from the NATO member states. 

I really want to believe that neither option is being seriously considered by Putin.  But at this point in this horrendous conflict, nothing would surprise me.   

[aikorob]

A potentially interesting development:

UN atomic watchdog loses contact with second nuclear plant in Ukraine

Both the Zaporizhzhia and the Chernobyl plants are now no longer transmitting data.

https://www.livescience.com/zaphorizhzhia-comms-cut

The nuclear material and activity in these facilities is no longer being monitored.  Of note, Chernobyl has been removed from the power grid and, while that means there is no active cooling, there should be sufficient heat dispersion without active cooling, but also the security system is offline.  Ukraine's power authority says there is no way to restore power to the facility, but Belarus claims it is sending a team to restore power.

I've been wondering why the Russians made securing Chernobyl an early priority.  If their back up plan involves extorting the Ukrainian government into surrendering or they'll turn the country into an uninhabitable wasteland, that would redefine "dick move".  Or possibly, their plan could be even simpler: forget the extortion.  Just turn a significant portion of Ukraine into said uninhabitable wasteland and there's Putin's land buffer from the NATO member states. 

I really want to believe that neither option is being seriously considered by Putin.  But at this point in this horrendous conflict, nothing would surprise me.   

every reactor has a "fingerprint"  ---they can identify the reactor from the spent fuel

desperate Ukrainians-afraid of losing the war-contaminate a city in Mother Russia with a dirty bomb....................and Russian citizens are galvanized to action, and now Russia won't be the one to use atomic first

[Anianna]

Putin gave orders to use mercenaries from the  Middle East to bolster the Russian military forces in Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60711211

[majorhavoc]

Struggling to decide whether this should go here or in Firearms Chat.  Ian McCollum (aka Gun Jesus) has some very interesting thoughts on a lesson learned from the Ukraine conflict.  Specifically the value of an armed citizenry, trained in rifle marksmanship, as a deterrent to invasion from a more powerful neighbor.  Ian used Finland as an example.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWdn6_ayqD8