Updated - Possible Supply & Service Disruptions Now January 10, 2022.

[Raptor]

Note this topic is to discuss a possible service and supply disruption caused by the implementation of the Federal COVID vaccine mandate schedule right now to take place effective 1/4/22.
It has been suggested (& some have already occurred) that there will be large (albeit unknown) numbers of people who will either quit or be fired by that date over the federal vaccine mandate. This has already started to occur in hospital/medical professions, US Military and some private organizations.

https://www.osha.gov/sites/default/files/publications/OSHA4162.pdf?mkt_tok=MTMwLUpPTy01MTkAAAGAj4VJ-Ek88S3WLkCG2tkgsoASa-zLnIlBi8PgSdYmLoUYEOc3bqVPN0GXIksZaxECqj5rEWvT9mAYW5arrmmoSiCZdHGY6hXbtpoPVvIHkgso

This topic is to discuss what UFOZS'ers have experienced with this or expect to experience with this matter.

THIS THREAD IS NOT TO DISCUSS THE PROS AND CONS OF EITHER VACCINE POSITION, YOUR VACCINE STATUS AND/OR THE WISDOM,  OR LACK THEREOF OF EITHER POSITION.

IT IS TO DISCUSS WHAT PLANNING AND PREPARATIONS (if any) ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPCOMING ISSUE (or non-issue) THAT UFOZ'ers MAY ANTICIPATE.     

LETS SEE IF WE CAN HAVE NICE THINGS!

If we cannot have nice things I will consider it my failure and kill the topic.

I will start.
Assuming the mandate survives as promulgated by DOL &  OSHA all employers of 100 people or more with any government contracts of any kind will have to verify that employees have either been vaccinated or test for COVID weekly. Obviously if the mandate does not survive it is a non-issue. The employers need a documentation plan in place to track their compliance  and face a fine of up to $14,000 per failure (not clear if that is per instance, employee or day) with higher fines for "willful" violations what ever that may be.

That rule imposes significant risk to employers because in addition to the fine an employee who contracts COVID could potentially sue the employer for their failure also. I do see employers who are subject to this rule making an effort to comply. They may or may not want to but at least they will pay lip service to enforcement.

I also see a segment of work force quitting or being fired to avoid the liability. I have no clue as to the % of people who would do that. That said there have been publicized instances of this occurring already. I have also read of vaccinated people changing jobs to avoid working for such an employer as well as the opposite (people going to work for another employer because their employer does not enforce COVID rules).

In view of the current weird supply issues this could lead to further disruptions in supply and demand of a wide variety of products and services.

I personally ascribe a risk to this but not a significant risk and the risk mainly is in the supply chain. The issue is something I think I am already covering with my usual prep inventory levels.

That said I very interested in other opinions on the risk and any preps that you are making now.   

   
Edited to add:
This is a link to an article that explains further (in a non-political manner) what the new rule requires and exempts.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-mandate-new-details-answer-lingering-questions-about-long-awaited-rule-181157388.html
 

[Rednex]

My GF works for a cleaning company that cleans the state building's out here. Well 2 weeks ago then sent out a letter stating" all employees must be vaccinated or do a weekly covid-19 test with negative results to keep there employment with blank blank  company  . As stated by the new state mandates " Basically is you work for the state or work as someone contracted by the state you go through weekly testing or get vaccinated. 

She is taking the test weekly and showing the results the company has to keep on file for when state ask for proof of employees.

[flybynight]

I have a co worker who was recommended by her doctor not to get the vaccine due to previous allergic reactions. But her doctor has refused to sign the medical waiver due to libel concerns . Unless she can find a doctor to sign the waiver and it stands up to H R review .  She will be terminated Dec 11. It's pretty fucking shitty.
   I don't see this just as a supply chain issue. At this point in time those who have not been vaxed are vehemently opposed to getting the vax. And appear to be ready to lose their current jobs to prove their view point.  At one end I foresee severe disruptions/ increased wait time in  all manner of   business  dealings to at the extreme  other end,  the spark that starts the flames of civil war .
  The rumor is there are at least 40 professors at KSU who will not vax and are prepared to leave , even to the point of not teaching anymore and changing professions.  There's one at my building.  And  the federal grant money she receives leaves with her.  That money also pays the wages of her staff. Which is moot since without her , the department and research being done ends. 
  Imagine the disruption to students  . Who's going to teach those 4 yr University level classes ?

[woodsghost]

If you don't have it before the event, don't plan on having it after the event.

Don't assume it is a Left/Right issue. The percentages change depending on the camp, but all the camps have people who feel strongly about their choices. I believe I saw there is a mandate for companies with fewer than 100 employees but that mandate will "be open for a public comment period." I won't dig into that further. I will say, if the mandate goes into effect for all employers, a disruption on the scale of 20% of the US workforce is likely. I think a disruption of 40% of the workforce is possible. This assumes the mandate is applied to all employers, regardless of size.

We already have a gray market for employment. I expect that market to explode. I expect services to be paid for in cash and crypto. I expect a high scrutiny of bank accounts to track off-the-books income. I expect crypto transactions, where possible, will be tracked. If this occures I expect higher amounts of cash will be stored in homes and I expect crime to increase. Well, I expect crime to increase anyway, for this and other reasons.

And I could be wrong. But every time I've said "it might not be that bad" in the last 2 years I've been wrong. I'm done with that and just assuming worst case from here on out and delighted (nay, thrilled!) to be wrong.

I am dimensionalizing the issue like this:

Vax Rate = .... Vax Rate for states

Compliance = State compliance with Federal directives

I don't know that any states have High Vax/Low Compliance, so I'm ignoring that category.

I suspect the least impacted states will be those with Low Vax/Low Compliance.

I suspect the middle level impacted will be those High Vax/High Compliance.

I suspect the most impacted will be Low Vax/High Compliance.

If you are not certain where your state is on those axises, I believe New York State has records of vax rates and one can look at the news to determine State Compliance level.

Those are my guesses at who will have the different impact levels.

I expect ALL states will be impacted. I think there will be a difference of degree.

[Crosscut]

Unlike the federal contractor mandate that takes effect on Dec 8th (with some vague 'flexibility'), the OSHA regulation allows a testing & masking option for those unwilling to receive the vaccination and without having to pursue a religious or medical exemption.

...with an exception for employers that instead  establish, implement, and enforce a policy allowing employees who are not fully vaccinated to elect to undergo weekly COVID-19 testing and wear a face covering at the workplace.

Of the two, the federal contractor mandate is the more draconian in scope imo.  In conversations with friends and coworkers affected by it I see the remaining unvaccinated workers falling into two main categories - those that won't get vaccinated even if it results in their termination, and those hoping for a last minute intervention by the courts but failing that will get vaccinated at the last minute to avoid loosing their income.  I would expect to see some amount of monkeywrenching from the former on their way out the door; and strikes, intentional slowdowns or sick-outs, and corporate sabotage like data leaks from the latter.  An increase in workplace violence seems likely as well.

How widespread it is and the ultimate impact is anyone's guess, and some or even most of it may be done covertly or with plausible deniability at an individual level making it difficult to distinguish between intent, accident, or simple ignorance.  Personally I think there will be repercussions (e.g., blowback) so I'm just trying to top off preps and increase our stashed cash amount.

[RoneKiln]

A few years before all this blew up I was talking to a very good friend that was thinking of quitting his very high paying job to take over an aging family members small business. It was a great little business but highly affected by economic swings. He was working out how to pay off a home and expand his gardens and small livestock to better weather the downturns.

In the end he passed it up cause he predicted a strong likelihood of increased wealth disparity and reduced social mobility in our society. He decided the best way to protect his kids and potential grandkids from being trapped in the lower levels was through land ownership and the stock market. He kept the high paying job to intentionally try to develop intergenerational wealth and is trying to raise his kids with the same mentality.

Fast forward to today with additional disruptions to our world and increased possibility of a class of people being forced out of the main stream economy. We often discuss preps and weathering disruptions. Anyone looking at how to shape their resilience farther down the road?

[Lambykins]

Our states Attorney General has joined with 10 other states in suing OSHA over the vaccine mandates:
https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-sues-osha-covid-vaccine/38174023

I have a co worker who was recommended by her doctor not to get the vaccine due to previous allergic reactions. But her doctor has refused to sign the medical waiver due to libel concerns . Unless she can find a doctor to sign the waiver and it stands up to H R review .  She will be terminated Dec 11. It's pretty fucking shitty.
 

My doctor was going to issue me a waiver paper because of my allergies...BUT...my doctor has left the area now. My clinic is in the process of merging with another entity and I don't know any of these doctors, they don't know me. I've spoken to other patients that use the same clinic...and it don't look good. Apparently the new docs coming in are of the opinion that every patient has to start with a clean slate , i.e.; EVERYONE has to be tested for EVERYTHING in their records. "Oh, you're allergic to penicillin? Let's do a patch test to make sure." or "You say you are legally blind? Lets send you to the eye doctor to make sure before we sign those disability papers. We KNOW it's in your record, but that test was 3 months ago, let's make sure!" And so on....
Currently my place of employment has under 100 employees.
Technically.
My boss does not count the floor crew, the seasonal grounds keeper crew (they scrape the parking lot in winter, etc), most of the maintenance guys. He pays them as independent contractors.
Even though some of them only work at the store.
However...we do have a bit of federal  (and state) gov't. entanglement.
So...the boss has adopted a *wait and see* attitude and will notify us as to our status as this goes on.

[woodsghost]

A few years before all this blew up I was talking to a very good friend that was thinking of quitting his very high paying job to take over an aging family members small business. It was a great little business but highly affected by economic swings. He was working out how to pay off a home and expand his gardens and small livestock to better weather the downturns.

In the end he passed it up cause he predicted a strong likelihood of increased wealth disparity and reduced social mobility in our society. He decided the best way to protect his kids and potential grandkids from being trapped in the lower levels was through land ownership and the stock market. He kept the high paying job to intentionally try to develop intergenerational wealth and is trying to raise his kids with the same mentality.

Fast forward to today with additional disruptions to our world and increased possibility of a class of people being forced out of the main stream economy. We often discuss preps and weathering disruptions. Anyone looking at how to shape their resilience farther down the road?

Me? Buy land, farm livestock, learn herbal medicine. I code too and do some computer work.

I'm trying to get a company started.

My dad has his business and will help with wealth through revenue, but it could tank. I am advocating for diversification of revenue streams. So far I haven't been listened to. It is a lot of work to manage diverse work streams. And some recent comments make me think some diversification may be in the near-ish future.

I have way too many irons in the fire and I am chasing my tail, so I need to hunker down and focus.

But at the end of the day, I want to be able to run an organic meat operation since that is something people will literally always need and will figure out how to pay for. Medicine is the same.

Next I'll be continuing with a software business.

After that I'm going to pick some additional skillsets in case I need to flee overseas. In addition to the software skillsets. I want to be able to do things which will get paid under the table in case I have to flee and have a tough time getting a job. Welding and construction come to mind. I have some construction experience.

[Crosscut]

The OSHA mandate was temporarily blocked by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

https://ljc-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/2021/11/2021-11-06-BST-Holdings-v.-OSHA-Stay-Granted.pdf

Because  the  petitions  give  cause  to  believe  there  are  grave  statutory and constitutional  issues  with the Mandate,  the Mandate is hereby STAYED pending  further  action by this  court.

As I understand it this only applies to the requirement for private businesses with 100 or more employees, the lawsuit(s) challenging the mandate for federal contractors and subcontractors is unaffected.

[woodsghost]

The OSHA mandate was temporarily blocked by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

https://ljc-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/2021/11/2021-11-06-BST-Holdings-v.-OSHA-Stay-Granted.pdf

Because  the  petitions  give  cause  to  believe  there  are  grave  statutory and constitutional  issues  with the Mandate,  the Mandate is hereby STAYED pending  further  action by this  court.

As I understand it this only applies to the requirement for private businesses with 100 or more employees, the lawsuit(s) challenging the mandate for federal contractors and subcontractors is unaffected.

My understanding is this only applies to the region of the 5th circuit (Texas and some other Southern States). This would need to be appealed through the apperatus of the 5th and taken up at a higher level (probably Supreme Court) before this ruling could be applied nationally. It it stood up.

If other districts uphold the mandate we would see a conflict between rulings and increase (but not guarantee) the change the Supreme Court would take it up to offer clarifying rulings.

I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that is how I works.

We will see where this goes.

[SCBrian]

Our states Attorney General has joined with 10 other states in suing OSHA over the vaccine mandates:

I'm in one of those states and in an interesting position as my pay comes jointly from multiple sources. (Federal, state and local).  There is no word on what (if anything) will happen come Jan 4th.  I know my specific kitchen is fully vaccinated and most have been for a bit, but I know others aren't.  I've heard NO news of anything on my level, so I think it's just a 'wait and see' approach and we'll find out Jan 3rd...

[Crosscut]

The OSHA mandate was temporarily blocked by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.

https://ljc-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/2021/11/2021-11-06-BST-Holdings-v.-OSHA-Stay-Granted.pdf

Because  the  petitions  give  cause  to  believe  there  are  grave  statutory and constitutional  issues  with the Mandate,  the Mandate is hereby STAYED pending  further  action by this  court.

As I understand it this only applies to the requirement for private businesses with 100 or more employees, the lawsuit(s) challenging the mandate for federal contractors and subcontractors is unaffected.

My understanding is this only applies to the region of the 5th circuit (Texas and some other Southern States). This would need to be appealed through the apperatus of the 5th and taken up at a higher level (probably Supreme Court) before this ruling could be applied nationally. It it stood up.

If other districts uphold the mandate we would see a conflict between rulings and increase (but not guarantee) the change the Supreme Court would take it up to offer clarifying rulings.

I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that is how I works.

We will see where this goes.

I believe that's correct about their jurisdiction, but I suspect no matter how they rule it'll be appealed to the SC by the losing side.  Found this somewhat interesting as well:

White House Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre responded to a question at a Friday press briefing about whether or not she is confident the mandate will stand up to legal challenges.

"We are very confident that it can," Jean-Pierre said. "As for the legal side of this, let me be crystal clear to avoid what appears to be possible misinformation or disinformation around the emergency temporary standard being a vaccine mandate. That would be on its face incorrect as has been explicit for months. It is a standard for safe workplace to either comply with weekly testing or to be vaccinated."

The federal contractor mandate has no such weekly testing option, which seems to imply the Executive branch believes they do the authority to mandate a vaccine for federal contractors unlike other 100+ employee companies.  Like you said, we'll see where this goes.

[Raptor]

Thank you all for the good and useful responses. I am glad we can have nice things at least so far.

Your posts have to me been really eye opening. Based upon this data I think I underestimated the consequences that arise from this action. That is exactly why I posted this; so we can all get a better perspective of the potential impact.

My understanding of the 5th circuit court ruling is that it stays the enforcement for private companies. It does not impact any rules for federal employees. I would also note that the ruling was issued by only 3 judges and not the full court (not en banc). There is a hearing later on this week for an appeal of the stay. So this may change and IMO there is a 99.99999% probability that this result whatever it may be will go to the SCOTUS. (The only reason it may not go to the SCOTUS is if the OSHA decides change the rule.) The previous SCOTUS ruling on the subject was a very limited version of this matter and it was a request for a stay. They may simply decline to take the matter.

BTW this does not preclude private employers from issuing their own rules. They can have even more stringent rules IF they choose to do so.

Our states Attorney General has joined with 10 other states in suing OSHA over the vaccine mandates:
https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-sues-osha-covid-vaccine/38174023

I have a co worker who was recommended by her doctor not to get the vaccine due to previous allergic reactions. But her doctor has refused to sign the medical waiver due to libel concerns . Unless she can find a doctor to sign the waiver and it stands up to H R review .  She will be terminated Dec 11. It's pretty fucking shitty.
 

My doctor was going to issue me a waiver paper because of my allergies...BUT...my doctor has left the area now. My clinic is in the process of merging with another entity and I don't know any of these doctors, they don't know me. I've spoken to other patients that use the same clinic...and it don't look good. Apparently the new docs coming in are of the opinion that every patient has to start with a clean slate , i.e.; EVERYONE has to be tested for EVERYTHING in their records. "Oh, you're allergic to penicillin? Let's do a patch test to make sure." or "You say you are legally blind? Lets send you to the eye doctor to make sure before we sign those disability papers. We KNOW it's in your record, but that test was 3 months ago, let's make sure!" And so on....

Just a suggestion... What you should consider saying to them is:
"OK so you are on notice about the allergic reaction written into the record. You see that right there, correct? But you still want to expose me to the substance to which there is a documented allergic reactionto ensure the written documentation is correct?
Fine ... I need indemnification for any damage (pain, suffering, loss of pay due to missed work time, etc) I suffer from the intentional exposure to the substance during such test. "

Full disclosure I am also allergic to some meds and always disclose it. The new MD response seems unusual to say the least.

A few years before all this blew up I was talking to a very good friend that was thinking of quitting his very high paying job to take over an aging family members small business. It was a great little business but highly affected by economic swings. He was working out how to pay off a home and expand his gardens and small livestock to better weather the downturns.

In the end he passed it up cause he predicted a strong likelihood of increased wealth disparity and reduced social mobility in our society. He decided the best way to protect his kids and potential grandkids from being trapped in the lower levels was through land ownership and the stock market. He kept the high paying job to intentionally try to develop intergenerational wealth and is trying to raise his kids with the same mentality.

Fast forward to today with additional disruptions to our world and increased possibility of a class of people being forced out of the main stream economy. We often discuss preps and weathering disruptions. Anyone looking at how to shape their resilience farther down the road?

I am always concerned about future resiliency. It is tough to prepare for something so broad and potentially devastating.

It is hard say your friend was right or wrong but based upon the statement that the business was highly affected by economic swings I would suggest right off the bat that that type of business should be considered only by those with a lot of experience in that business.

Back on topic:

It seems like we all know someone who may be adversely affected by this new mandate. Assuming the 5th circuit ruling stands and the private mandate is eliminated how will that affect the people you know?

The question is posed to further try to understand how much of an impact this will have on us.

I cannot find any news article that meets my standard for this thread, but suffice to say all military services are gearing up to "fire" those who are not vaccinated.

Although Southwest Airlines seems to have reversed themselves, United and Delta are not.

It seems regardless of what the courts do we will see some level of disruption.

What are your thoughts on this matter?




 

   


   

[woodsghost]

If courts strike down the mandates then either the Executive Branch will back down or will continue while ignoring the Court rulings. See recent Illinois activity for reference.

The fundamental check and balance of the Courts is their lack of enforcement. Also, their lack of organic funding.

The check and balance on the Executive is the power of the purse.

If the Executive ignores the Courts (and that has happened in other countries in addition to, recently, the US), Congress will have to decide whether to defund the Executive or not. Run your own calculations on that one.

So the calculation is "will the Executive ignore the Courts if the Courts rule unfavorably?"

Before that, one might ask "will the Courts rule unfavorably?" The answer is "some will, apparently." I won't pretend to guess what SCOTUS will rule.

If the Courts rule against the Executive, what are the chances of the Executive actually backing down?

If the Executive does not back down, what options exist on the State level? And will the Executive choose open war with non-complying States? Or will a low level warfare be chosen until changes occure in Congress?

Let's say, in 2022, that a major shift in control of Congress happens. What then? That is getting beyond my crystal ball, and perhaps stretching the limits of "no politics," (maybe?), but those are the decision tree paths I see. At each node you weight the most likely thing to happen and go down to the next decision tree node.

I already said "I'm done thinking things will be chill, but I'd love to be proven wrong."

[Crosscut]

Back on topic:

It seems like we all know someone who may be adversely affected by this new mandate. Assuming the 5th circuit ruling stands and the private mandate is eliminated how will that affect the people you know?

The question is posed to further try to understand how much of an impact this will have on us.

I cannot find any news article that meets my standard for this thread, but suffice to say all military services are gearing up to "fire" those who are not vaccinated.

Although Southwest Airlines seems to have reversed themselves, United and Delta are not.

It seems regardless of what the courts do we will see some level of disruption.

What are your thoughts on this matter?

Can't speak to the private mandate, the only people I've had discussions with that would have been affected by it are already vaccinated by choice.  At least in my circle though even those that chose to vaccinate are largely anti-mandate.  As for the federal contractor mandate what I see varies from frustration to anger, and how that finds an outlet down the road (if at all) I won't venture any guesses other than those already stated.  I tend to think any severe disruptions from this aren't likely to last long, displaced workers will be replaced although it might take some time to train them.  Standard prepping to weather the storm.  In the longer term, or when something similar occurs next, be better prepared to go Galt?

Now this comment may bump up against the rules, if so delete it and no argument here, but I'd venture that they probably know the mandates won't hold up in court (unmodified or more limited, at least), but imposing it with a short time frame to comply achieves the desired affect of more vaccinations before the courts or the legislature can respond.  Not many want to risk losing their job, or necessarily discuss their reasoning for an exemption with their employer.  Others, me included, have objections that don't qualify under either religious or medical which are the only approved exemptions.  IMO this is basically the same as the CDC's eviction moratorium order from last year, by the time it was overturned (the SC ruling, "our system does not permit agencies to act unlawfully even in pursuit of desirable ends.") the goal had largely been achieved, and with no consequences or penalties imposed for the unlawful conduct so it's likely we'll see this same blueprint used over and over again.

[woodsghost]

Some recent information shows African Americans living in California have Vax rates between 44% and 60%, depending on county. I've already heard and seen reference to "racism" and "systemic racism." Those subjects have led to social unrest in the past. The protests were "firery but mostly peaceful." People can draw their own conclusions. Everything I've seen says this community has the lowest vax rates.

Again, this is not quite a "Left/Right" thing. It is a very complicated mix of issues and the fault lines can show up in unexpected places.

[Raptor]

Again, this is not quite a "Left/Right" thing. It is a very complicated mix of issues and the fault lines can show up in unexpected places.

You are correct that this is a complicated mix with many factors adding to the complexity. Then throw politics into the mix and you have what we have today.

Lets stay away from politics though.

FWIW I have real doubts about the polls and their accuracy. It too easy to say yes to pollster.
The .gov publishes stats of vaccines administered but IMO even those are potentially overstating the % for a variety of reasons including simple error.

That is what makes this potential risk so difficult to assess.

[MPMalloy]

Things ppl don't really think about...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZyMI7AIj_g


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEmr36AJm54

IIR, something like this was discussed on another board when Avengers: Infinity War came out

[RonnyRonin]

I have a friend that is a federal worker that lost his job today. He had applied for religious exemption from the mandate but they fired him for a minor infraction that had not been disciplined in the past (the infraction had happened months ago). I don't think it's far fetched to jump to the conclusion that religious exemptions are a thorny constitutional issue that most federal employers will go to great lengths to not tackle head on if they can find any way to avoid it.

[Raptor]

 :That sucks
Your friend should file an appeal.