COVID chat thread

[EBuff75]

Just got my covid booster (Moderna) this afternoon.  Last week, at my regular doctor's appointment, I asked him about getting a booster and he strongly recommended it (although he wasn't willing to endorse going with a different type, as the studies on that aren't done yet).  CVS had same-day appointments, so it was a quick in/out this afternoon to get it after making the appointment at lunch time. 

Nothing yet other than a bit of post-shot sensitivity.  For the full shots I was a bit tired and had some joint ache afterwards, but nothing significant. Hopefully it will be even less this time, due to the reduced amount of vaccine in the booster.

[sheddi]

My 11-year-old gets her first vaccine shot on Sunday.

That must be a relief!

My 15-year-old got their single shot of the Pfizer vaccine today (UK kids only get one shot, and Pfizer is the only vax licensed for under-18s). Much as with you, they were the last member of the household and we're now all vaccinated.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

Guess who's panic buying now?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/02/chinese-urged-to-stockpile-amid-ongoing-covid-outbreak

But of course the rumor mill then drives the why of doing so in a different direction. I'm not unaware of the very real tensions and reasons that seed the rumors, although that is not yet. This is their growing number of outbreaks and the coming winter.

Welcome to prepping my brothers and sisters in your part of the world.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

This is also interesting. The Economist suggests the truer numbers of covid related deaths is over 16,000,000.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/11/02/the-number-of-people-who-have-died-from-covid-19-is-likely-to-be-close-to-17m

[Anianna]

My 11-year-old gets her first vaccine shot on Sunday.

That must be a relief!

My 15-year-old got their single shot of the Pfizer vaccine today (UK kids only get one shot, and Pfizer is the only vax licensed for under-18s). Much as with you, they were the last member of the household and we're now all vaccinated.

The varied dosing is interesting.  In the US, teens get the same as adults.  I'm interested in seeing how the numbers differ between the two dosages for teens.  Is there a particular reason stated as to why the UK went with a lower dose?

[lurkedthere]

My 11-year-old gets her first vaccine shot on Sunday.

That must be a relief!

My 15-year-old got their single shot of the Pfizer vaccine today (UK kids only get one shot, and Pfizer is the only vax licensed for under-18s). Much as with you, they were the last member of the household and we're now all vaccinated.

The varied dosing is interesting.  In the US, teens get the same as adults.  I'm interested in seeing how the numbers differ between the two dosages for teens.  Is there a particular reason stated as to why the UK went with a lower dose?

Most of the benefit comes with the first dose, most of the problems with the second dose. The favourable cost/benefit ratio, although still there, is less pronounced in kids than adults.

ETA : lots more here
BBC News - Covid: Single jab recommended for 12 to 15-year-olds by UK's top doctors
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58547659

[Mr. E. Monkey]

This is also interesting. The Economist suggests the truer numbers of covid related deaths is over 16,000,000.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/11/02/the-number-of-people-who-have-died-from-covid-19-is-likely-to-be-close-to-17m

That is interesting.  Looking at their cumulative charts, it seems the vast majority of these estimated excess deaths are in Asia.  I  am guessing they might not trust the numbers coming out of China?  Either way, it would be interesting to see how they reached this conclusion.

[NT2C]

Are efforts to end the pandemic just prolonging it?

[RoneKiln]

Are efforts to end the pandemic just prolonging it?

I thought that was the openly expressed intent behind the efforts to "flatten the curve."

[sheddi]

Hi everyone! Sorry for my absence, it's all been a bit crazy busy.

Mrs Sheddi and me are both now triple-jabbed, Experiment #1 is double-jabbed and Experiment #2 will be eligible for a second shot in the New Year.

Omicron is all over the news here in the UK. According to TPTB cases are doubling every 2 days or less, mask mandates are back and COVID passports are required to get into nightclubs and large events.

My holiday plans aren't particularly complicated - hoping to visit relatives - but could yet need revision.

[SCBrian]

Thanks for bumping sheddi - forgot about this topic.
I got my booster shot last week.  First dose was J&J booster was Moderna. 
Results - it knocked my on my rear.  Got the shot at ~215p,  was in bed unconscious by 6pm.  Back up at ~90% next AM at 4am...  Following day was continued improvement...

[Anianna]

Thanks for bumping sheddi - forgot about this topic.
I got my booster shot last week.  First dose was J&J booster was Moderna. 
Results - it knocked my on my rear.  Got the shot at ~215p,  was in bed unconscious by 6pm.  Back up at ~90% next AM at 4am...  Following day was continued improvement...

I've been worried because the reports regarding immune deficiency say that I only have about a 50% chance that the vaccines are working for me at all.  I didn't get sick when I got my shots (all Pfizer), so I'm thinking that could maybe be a sign that I'm one of the 50% for which it's not able to kick my immunity into gear. 

I'm glad you're feeling better and I suspect you're decently protected!  Thank you, all of you who have gotten the vaccines, for being part of creating a safer environment for people like me.

[EBuff75]

Thanks for bumping sheddi - forgot about this topic.
I got my booster shot last week.  First dose was J&J booster was Moderna. 
Results - it knocked my on my rear.  Got the shot at ~215p,  was in bed unconscious by 6pm.  Back up at ~90% next AM at 4am...  Following day was continued improvement...

I've been worried because the reports regarding immune deficiency say that I only have about a 50% chance that the vaccines are working for me at all.  I didn't get sick when I got my shots (all Pfizer), so I'm thinking that could maybe be a sign that I'm one of the 50% for which it's not able to kick my immunity into gear. 

I'm glad you're feeling better and I suspect you're decently protected!  Thank you, all of you who have gotten the vaccines, for being part of creating a safer environment for people like me.

They've said that the harder the shot/booster hits you, the better your protection is likely to be, since you're demonstrating a strong immune response to the shot.  I'm vaxxed and boosted, all of it with Moderna.  I've talked with several people who were like me - fine for the first few hours, then really, really need to take a nap!  After waking back up, I just had some soreness at the injection point and my joints ached a bit for a few days.

[Crosscut]

Drudge had these numbers up today, not sure where they were pulled from.

COVID CASES USA
265,032 DEC 23 2021
193,511 DEC 23 2020

DEATHS
3,287 DEC 23 2021
3,412 DEC 23 2020

I know deaths lag new cases by about a couple weeks, but just using these daily totals the Covid recovery rate on 12/23/2020 was 98.24% and in 2021 is 98.76%.

A 0.5% reduction in case-fatality year over year.

The Total Vaccine Doses Administered in the US is 498,637,703, for a decrease in the case-fatality rate of 0.5%.  Even attributing every life saved as being a result of vaccination that's a Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNTV) of 200, or one fatality averted for every 200 vaccine doses administered.

Not far off the number predicted from the original Pfizer vaccine trial data in Nov 2020, and that was largely 'fact checked' as misleading or misinformation by the media at the time.

[CG]

My brother just got told that Texas is out of monoclonal antibodies until January.

I'm glad we did not go visit them over Christmas.

[NT2C]

So, can somebody help me out here?  Omicron is a more contagious form of Covid-19, right?  But it's also weaker, or at least its symptoms are greatly lessened, to the point some people aren't even aware they've had it until tested for it, right?  Vaccination works and greatly lessens the severity of the symptoms if you do catch Covid-19, but it requires multiple boosters to maintain that level of protection and carries with it a very small chance of negative reaction to it?  Vaccination, apparently, does not prevent reinfection or prevent you from spreading the infection? So-called "natural immunity", immunity gained from being infected and recovering, lasts longer and is stronger than immunity gained through vaccination?  Have I got all that straight?  Did I get anything wrong or skewed?

If not then... why are we in such a panic over Omicron?  Its symptoms seem about on-par with vaccination and it confers better immunity.  If that's true, masking and social distancing seem contraindicated.  Wasn't one of the main purposes of vaccination to get us to the "herd immunity" level?  Well, Omicron seems like it's nature's way of doing that.

So, obviously, I have something wrong because the media and our governments are all still in full-on panic mode, like their heads are on fire and their asses are catching, but what?  What am I not understanding?

[Anianna]

So, can somebody help me out here?  Omicron is a more contagious form of Covid-19, right?  But it's also weaker, or at least its symptoms are greatly lessened, to the point some people aren't even aware they've had it until tested for it, right?  Vaccination works and greatly lessens the severity of the symptoms if you do catch Covid-19, but it requires multiple boosters to maintain that level of protection and carries with it a very small chance of negative reaction to it?  Vaccination, apparently, does not prevent reinfection or prevent you from spreading the infection? So-called "natural immunity", immunity gained from being infected and recovering, lasts longer and is stronger than immunity gained through vaccination?  Have I got all that straight?  Did I get anything wrong or skewed?

If not then... why are we in such a panic over Omicron?  Its symptoms seem about on-par with vaccination and it confers better immunity.  If that's true, masking and social distancing seem contraindicated.  Wasn't one of the main purposes of vaccination to get us to the "herd immunity" level?  Well, Omicron seems like it's nature's way of doing that.

So, obviously, I have something wrong because the media and our governments are all still in full-on panic mode, like their heads are on fire and their asses are catching, but what?  What am I not understanding?

"So-called "natural immunity", immunity gained from being infected and recovering, lasts longer and is stronger than immunity gained through vaccination?" - This one may be off a bit, but I'm willing to review the data.  Last I checked, natural immunity from having Covid was weak compared to vaccination.  Either way, this is one that we can get again even after an immunity boost, but the impact on our health system could be lessened by a higher vaccination rate keeping people out of hospitals.

I don't see that the government is in panic mode.  Quarantine times have been reduced, no new mandates federally, and they've been reporting to the media that Omicron isn't all that bad if you get it. 

The media are running amok, as they tend to do with their fearmongering, which is probably contributing to people who have a mild case of Omicron rushing to hospitals where they don't need to be.  The current data says if you have Omicron, you can likely convalesce at home without much issue.  Some people feel the need to run to a hospital for any little snuffle and that will have an impact when so many of those types needlessly burden the system at once.

The actual data is that Delta is still the variant causing the most hospitalizations and deaths.  Omicron is the variant that is getting everything shut down because it spreads like fire and so many people are sick regardless of how sick.  It's just that enough people are sick that there aren't enough people not sick to keep things operational in many cases.  That doesn't mean those people are in the hospital or dying, they just need some time to recover and there's a lot of them and the way the media wants to report that is, again, fearmongering.  It can look a bit scary for so many people to be sick at once, but if the Omicron variant is mild and doesn't have a lot of long-term effects, it's not really much of a big deal and is likely to have more impact on business than health.

The thing with vaccinations is that they tend to work better in populations where vaccination rates are high enough to reach herd immunity (as you mentioned, and this level varies).  Historically, we eradicated or near eradicated certain diseases such as smallpox and polio via vaccine mandates, not just by having vaccines available.  Measles was nearly eradicated in the US until the antivax movement had it reappearing in populations where vaccination rates have dropped (often in areas with low education rates where Andrew Wakefield and Jenny McCarthy actively push their anti-vaccine advocacy).  As long as there is any significant number of unvaccinated within a given population, there will continue to be disease. 

Whether Omicron can get us to herd immunity is yet to be seen.  It will depend on what kind of effect it has on the immune system.  The base disease did not sufficiently boost the immune response.  I didn't check the numbers on the delta variant, so that one might provide a stronger immunity on par with or greater than the vaccine.  We don't know if this variant will provide a robust response yet, but based on data regarding SARS and previous covid variants, I doubt it will provide a significant enough boost that lasts.  Given the nature of the virus, though, even the natural potential immune response will still likely require an annual booster unless better vaccine tech comes along on that front.  So far, all immunity to covid, whether natural or induced, wanes over time. 

I believe covid will not be eradicated and will continue, but it will reach a baseline that we can live with and occasional outbursts of variants that cause us problems, similar to the flu virus and the H1N1 that has continued since the 1918 pandemic.  At some point, the levels will fall off to numbers that can be considered within normal parameters.

I honestly don't think we're in a panic over omicron.  I think it's just the media's latest buzzword and most of us are just rolling our eyes while some have mild concerns regarding how so many people being temporarily sick is impacting our daily lives (like the people trying to get home whose flights were canceled due to lack of staffing).



ETA: Preliminary data at this time looks like omicron is providing a robust immune response even to other variants, so maybe this is the catalyst that will put an end to the pandemic.

[RoneKiln]

Every peer reviewed article I've seen on vaccine vs natural immunity shows natural immunity is 13 to 20 times better than vaccines. But I've only seen studies done outside the US.

Lifestyle issues in the US may really throw off how relevant overseas studies are to the US. Obesity really messes with our immune system, and especially so with Covid. Covid can hide in fat from our primary immune systems while sparking a low level immune system in fat to cause significant chronic inflammation (google something to the effect of "covid in fat").

The high obesity rate in the US may make this a far different issue for us than it is elsewhere. Initially I was quite dismissive of the media's extreme reaction. Now I'm not so certain. Though I believe the poor quality of our media industry is causing more harm than good.

[Anianna]

Though I believe the poor quality of our media industry is causing more harm than good.

I think that's pretty certain. 

[Crosscut]

So, can somebody help me out here?  Omicron is a more contagious form of Covid-19, right?  But it's also weaker, or at least its symptoms are greatly lessened, to the point some people aren't even aware they've had it until tested for it, right?  Vaccination works and greatly lessens the severity of the symptoms if you do catch Covid-19, but it requires multiple boosters to maintain that level of protection and carries with it a very small chance of negative reaction to it?  Vaccination, apparently, does not prevent reinfection or prevent you from spreading the infection? So-called "natural immunity", immunity gained from being infected and recovering, lasts longer and is stronger than immunity gained through vaccination?  Have I got all that straight?  Did I get anything wrong or skewed?

If not then... why are we in such a panic over Omicron?  Its symptoms seem about on-par with vaccination and it confers better immunity.  If that's true, masking and social distancing seem contraindicated.  Wasn't one of the main purposes of vaccination to get us to the "herd immunity" level?  Well, Omicron seems like it's nature's way of doing that.

So, obviously, I have something wrong because the media and our governments are all still in full-on panic mode, like their heads are on fire and their asses are catching, but what?  What am I not understanding?

I'm wondering the same things, if it's basically a naturally attenuated or less lethal version of Covid then for lower-risk individuals with no comorbidities maybe this is the variant you want to contract.  Omicron parties anyone?

Saw a headline a few days ago about Omicron and T-Cell response, can't find the article now but it might have been referring to this pre-print study out of South Africa, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.26.21268380v1    T-cells, in my overly simplistic understanding of it, being the "long-term memory" of the immune system that helps the body recognize and respond faster to disease that's been encountered previously.