Increased chances of regional Middle East War

[majorhavoc]

I didn't see this already being talked about, but I think it's important, especially as a community dedicated to preparation. We should at least note what has been happening, and what increasingly looks like may happen, in the Middle East.  

I post this with zero interest in getting into the intractable political aspects of this situation.  The Gaza conflict has been going on for almost 10 months now. But with the increasing hostilities in northern Israel and especially with the recent killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in three different counties (including one on Iranian soil), this long sputtering powder keg is really starting to look like it's about to blow.

I'm not nearly sophisticated enough to anticipate all the ways this could go sideways and lead to unintended consequences (military, political, diplomatic, social and economic).  But suffice it to say that if this turns into a wider war, it will have profound effects well beyond that part of the world. Effects both abroad and domestically. Up to and including emboldening certain state actors to take advantage of a distracted and otherwise engaged West.  Effects that even foreign policy experts cannot accurately predict. But that I can almost guarantee will impact our lives indirectly, if not directly.

Not trying to be alarmist. But be informed, be vigilant and above all, be prepared for anything in the coming days, weeks and months.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

Thank you.

[Raptor]

Thank you for setting up this thread. This a quite appropriate topic and we should all at least be aware as much as possible for trouble. The current events are driving protests in the US and elsewhere. That alone is a reason to be aware of the issue.

I'm not nearly sophisticated enough to anticipate all the ways this could go sideways and lead to unintended consequences (military, political, diplomatic, social and economic).  

I share this comment with the further comment that I am not sure any mortal can anticipate the ways this region can go sideways. The ability of the region to move in unexpected ways seems to be endless.

No politics of course but among other issues anytime you have two unofficial nuclear powers engaged in hostilities  that should get our attention. 

[Lambykins]

He has the tendency to hyperbole, but he generally gives a good overview of what's going on.

[Z.O.R.G.]

One of the "interesting" things about the Middle East is the number of different armed groups that are "frienemies" with each other, on all sides of the conflict.  One group can be allied with another today and attack them the next.  This is not something new, there have been strife in the area between villages, tribes and city/nation states since before the time of the Pharos.  

With modern weaponry and near real time global communication any attack or atrocity can be amplified to a global crisis overnight.  If several small previously nonconnected groups collaborate on an operation a totally unpredicted event can occur that has a huge impact.  

I agree with Raptor, unless an analyst knows the secret plans of ALL the factions involved there is no way to predict how the region can go sideways.  

[majorhavoc]

9 dead, thousands wounded as pagers explode all across Lebanon

Corroborated by multiple news outlets. Initial reports were every pager was recently acquired and owned exclusively by members of Hezbollah.

This is something straight out of science fiction. I'm trying to be really careful what I say here and how I say it so I stay within forum rules. To pull off something like this obviously requires a mind boggling level of espionage and technical sophistication. Off hand, I can think of 2, maybe 3 players in the region with that kind of capability.  And outside of crackpot conspiracy reasoning, only 1 with a motive.

If this doesn't escalate the current Middle east conflict into a wider regional war, I don't know what will.

[Raptor]

9 dead, thousands wounded as pagers explode all across Lebanon

Corroborated by multiple news outlets. Initial reports were every pager was recently acquired and owned exclusively by members of Hezbollah.

This is something straight out of science fiction. I'm trying to be really careful what I say here and how I say it so I stay within forum rules. To pull off something like this obviously requires a mind boggling level of espionage and technical sophistication. Off hand, I can think of 2, maybe 3 players in the region with that kind of capability.  And outside of crackpot conspiracy reasoning, only 1 with a motive.

If this doesn't escalate the current Middle east conflict into a wider regional war, I don't know what will.

I just read the story and all I can say is Wow.

It surprised me on so many levels, not the least of which is that pagers are still in use. Again just another unpredictable twist in the region. The planning that went into placing kaboms in 3,000 +/- pagers is anazing.

I remember a decade or so ago the IDF/Mossad killed a terrorist with a cell phone bomb. They used some tech to induce problems with his phone. He brought it to a repair shop they swapped it for new one albeit with a small shape charge. Then the IDFcalled the dude and when he answered they made sure it was him. At which point they triggered the kabom. Since the phone was next to his ear the result was final.

If you piss off the Israelis throw away your telecom devices.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

9 dead, thousands wounded as pagers explode all across Lebanon

Corroborated by multiple news outlets. Initial reports were every pager was recently acquired and owned exclusively by members of Hezbollah.

This is something straight out of science fiction. I'm trying to be really careful what I say here and how I say it so I stay within forum rules. To pull off something like this obviously requires a mind boggling level of espionage and technical sophistication. Off hand, I can think of 2, maybe 3 players in the region with that kind of capability.  And outside of crackpot conspiracy reasoning, only 1 with a motive.

If this doesn't escalate the current Middle east conflict into a wider regional war, I don't know what will.

I just read the story and all I can say is Wow.

It surprised me on so many levels, not the least of which is that pagers are still in use. Again just another unpredictable twist in the region. The planning that went into placing kaboms in 3,000 +/- pagers is anazing.

I remember a decade or so ago the IDF/Mossad killed a terrorist with a cell phone bomb. They used some tech to induce problems with his phone. He brought it to a repair shop they swapped it for new one albeit with a small shape charge. Then the IDFcalled the dude and when he answered they made sure it was him. At which point they triggered the kabom. Since the phone was next to his ear the result was final.

If you piss off the Israelis throw away your telecom devices.

Note to self: Do not piss off the Israelis.

[Anianna]

I'm still confused about the pager thing.  The pagers were made in Taiwan, shipped to a European distributor, but the Israelis somehow planted the explosives in them?  Were the shipments intercepted?  Was the European distributor involved?  All of the articles I have read blame Israel but don't say how anything points to their involvement.  I'm not saying it wasn't them, I would just like some reporting that actually makes sense rather than sounding like vague speculation. 

I just read the story and all I can say is Wow.

It surprised me on so many levels, not the least of which is that pagers are still in use. Again just another unpredictable twist in the region. The planning that went into placing kaboms in 3,000 +/- pagers is anazing.

This bit I get.  The old tech is harder to trace and harder to use against them.  It's essentially flying under the radar.  This is why pagers and phone booths were still heavily used by drug dealers and other less-than-legal business ventures even after the widespread use of mobile phones and the introduction of smart phones. 

Plus, there could be a cultural component.  In Japan, for example, one of the most technologically advanced countries, fax are preferred over email so much so that many companies do not have an email address at all.  Also, many companies do not accept credit card or other technologically advanced means of payment.  Cash only and put it in the tray, not on the counter or in the hand (the latter two being considered incredibly rude).

[DarkAxel]

I'm still confused about the pager thing.  The pagers were made in Taiwan, shipped to a European distributor, but the Israelis somehow planted the explosives in them?  Were the shipments intercepted?  Was the European distributor involved?  All of the articles I have read blame Israel but don't say how anything points to their involvement.  I'm not saying it wasn't them, I would just like some reporting that actually makes sense rather than sounding like vague speculation. 

I just read the story and all I can say is Wow.

It surprised me on so many levels, not the least of which is that pagers are still in use. Again just another unpredictable twist in the region. The planning that went into placing kaboms in 3,000 +/- pagers is anazing.

This bit I get.  The old tech is harder to trace and harder to use against them.  It's essentially flying under the radar.  This is why pagers and phone booths were still heavily used by drug dealers and other less-than-legal business ventures even after the widespread use of mobile phones and the introduction of smart phones. 

Plus, there could be a cultural component.  In Japan, for example, one of the most technologically advanced countries, fax are preferred over email so much so that many companies do not have an email address at all.  Also, many companies do not accept credit card or other technologically advanced means of payment.  Cash only and put it in the tray, not on the counter or in the hand (the latter two being considered incredibly rude).

From what I've read the Taiwanese pager company didn't actually make the pagers. They sold a license to make them to a European manufacturer after a successful distribution contract. It wouldn't be too hard for the Israelis to intercept the shipment and modify them.

As for why Hezbollah was using pagers: After the attack on Israel last year, HAMAS and Hezbollah leaders commanded their people to stop using cellphones for fear of them being tracked and targeted by the IDF.

[EBuff75]

New wave of exploding devices today.  This time it was walkie-talkies:

The devices that detonated in a fresh wave of explosions in Lebanon on Wednesday were walkie-talkies, a security source told CNN.
Preliminary information suggested that there were between 15 to 20 explosions in southern suburbs of Beirut, and a further 15 to 20 blasts in southern Lebanon, the source said.
The walkie-talkies are less widely used than the pagers that blew up on Tuesday, as they had only been distributed among people organizing crowds, such as funerals and marches, the source said. 

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-pagers-explode-hezbollah-israel-09-18-24-intl-hnk/index.html

[DarkAxel]

I don't want to link to a live article for obvious reasons, but CNN and BBC are reporting that Israel is preparing for a ground invasion of Lebanon.

[NT2C]

This has always been the Israeli way, and the reason their neighbors mostly leave them alone for a few decades at a time.  Poking them hard sets them off like an exploding bear trap and they "count coup" in a way that instills fear and respect for a couple of generations.  I don't think they could exist as a nation where they are if they didn't.

[DarkAxel]

This has always been the Israeli way, and the reason their neighbors mostly leave them alone for a few decades at a time.  Poking them hard sets them off like an exploding bear trap and they "count coup" in a way that instills fear and respect for a couple of generations.  I don't think they could exist as a nation where they are if they didn't.

Yeah, Israel calls it "cutting the grass".

Problem is I'm not sure they are mowing the lawn this time.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

This has always been the Israeli way, and the reason their neighbors mostly leave them alone for a few decades at a time.  Poking them hard sets them off like an exploding bear trap and they "count coup" in a way that instills fear and respect for a couple of generations.  I don't think they could exist as a nation where they are if they didn't.

Yeah, Israel calls it "cutting the grass".

Problem is I'm not sure they are mowing the lawn this time.

Seems like 'salting the Earth' is a more fitting phrase.

[Raptor]

I am not very smart but even I know that if you piss off the Israelis they will kick the feces out of thier antagonists.

We are talking about a country that flew several troop transports to Uganda, destroyed the entire Ugandan air force on the ground, killed terrorists and rescued thier citizens being held there.

We are talking about a country that tracked a Nazi to Argentina, kidnapped him brought him back to Israel gave him a trial, executed him, cremated his corpse, built a one use crematorium, cremated his remains, destroyed the crematorium and dumped his ashes at sea.

There are a bunch more examples of Israel making a point that cannot be mistaken for anything except "Leave us alone, or suffer the consequences".

[DarkAxel]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/28/middleeast/hezbollah-leader-hassan-nasrallah-obituary-intl/index.html




Israel took out the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

[DarkAxel]

Iran launched Missiles at Israel after the IDF began ground operations in Lebanon

https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-09-30-2024-83ea5f243688f309754ec74850de4238

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-says-it-fired-dozens-of-missiles-into-israel