Poll: Is China preparing for war? Yes or No
Granted, there may be slant to this article, but it's truly concerning if true. Y'all have different sources of information, filtered via different cognitive biases...so what do YOU think, based on what you know, read, and think? Let's apply the wisdom of the masses and see how it goes.
Article in question: https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/china-is-preparing-to-go-to-war/
-Blast
before reading the article....YES
Before and after reading the article (and several others):
Yes.
It's my understanding that China's state run banks have been engaging in a sort of ponzi scheme pre-selling mortgages and never completing the homes. Highrise apartment buildings were started in some cases, then abandoned prior to completion and are now being torn down, but the Chinese people are still paying these mortgages and that money is going somewhere. Maybe that plays a roll in this and maybe it doesn't. Just another tidbit of information.
There have been instances in the past when all appearances pointed towards war, yet nothing happened. So the current military activity might be another ploy for intimidation purposes. China has been sanctioned multiple times before in the past, the reactions due to the sanctions on Russia aren´t that surprising really, even without any plans towards open war. The situation with Russia has shown how reliant any exporting country is on such things as the money system.
However, the last years have shown that as long as your country is important enough towards world economy there is a lot of leeway before any major opposition of not directly involved parties will happen. The consequences of an attack on Taiwan would be severe. Both from an economic standpoint concerning electronics and machinery and consignment, but also concerning who else might get involved.
I think it´s highly dependent on the reaction of other major players. China also currently suffers from draught and internal problems, that might hinder any aspirations towards an attack
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That´s the long, rambling, diplomatic answer.
The short answer: Covid destroyed any semblance of confidence I had in the human species possessing intelligence as a collective. Yes.
Short for me, I´m not good with that kind of stuff.
Quote from: tirls on August 20, 2022, 01:02:44 PMThe short answer: Covid destroyed any semblance of confidence I had in the human species possessing intelligence as a collective.
Yeah. I struggle with this same disillusionment.
Yes absolutely. Are they prepared to carry it out? IMO no. The Chinese have history of playing the long game.
That said when they do strike they will have a good probability of success.
I think any nation not preparing for war is failing its citizens.
China is obligated to prepare for war (but should not be starting one).
I don't think they'll pick a fight soon unless their economy really collapses. Economic collapse changes a lot of things. You suddenly have to channel a lot of anger and frustration and somehow tie up a lot of readily available labor to keep people from getting into trouble. War takes care of that and hopefully gives you new territory, resources, and an improved strategic position.
In reality, I think the trade disruptions from such a war would have civilization crippling effects even if nukes were not deployed.
https://youtu.be/6v2o501gV68