In a swift and stunning rout, Taliban fighters seized control of Afghanistan's capital on Sunday, completing their sweep of the besieged nation as the Afghan government collapsed after two decades of efforts by the U.S. to reshape the region as part of its "war on terror."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/after-two-decades-and-billions-spent-afghan-government-collapses-as-taliban-takes-kabul/ar-AANl6rt?ocid=msedgntp
What an absolute f***ing waste of lives....but I keep wondering what sort of team would be required to go in, grab stuff, and get out.
-Blast
Also, I would expect this to trigger more terrorist attacks all over the world. Heads on swivels, folks.
-Blast
This does seem to have happened remarkably quickly. The 1989 Republic of Afghanistan lasted three years from the Soviet withdrawal, while the latest Taliban campaign has only taken three months.
There was talk of the US (and, to a lesser extent, the UK) arranging to evacuate friendlies. That's going to be a lot more complicated now.
Does anyone know the status of the Kabul embassies? This photo has Saigon-in-1975 vibes:
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AANlJBM.img)
Quote from: Blast on August 15, 2021, 03:09:21 PM
What an absolute f***ing waste of lives....but I keep wondering what sort of team would be required to go in, grab stuff, and get out.
-Blast
So fucking right
Quote from: sheddi on August 15, 2021, 03:27:28 PM
This does seem to have happened remarkably quickly. The 1989 Republic of Afghanistan lasted three years from the Soviet withdrawal, while the latest Taliban campaign has only taken three months.
Some could argue it's been two decades. Large regions of the country were already under Taliban control, and they have far better communications technology than even existed in 1989.
Improved communications and logistics technologies also allows them to leverage large numbers of small disparate sources of outside support in ways they couldn't in 1989.
I'm just surprised so many people are shocked by this.
Quite possibly the most predictable outcome to an inevitable situation. 20 years of American (and Coalition) blood, sweat and treasure. And for what? The Taliban are in power and will provide a safe haven for terrorist groups, just as they were 20 years ago when we went into this mess. The only difference is there's a whole new generation of Afghan women who get to see their dreams and potential destroyed all over again.
This is a giant fucking disgrace. I feel so ashamed.
A Taliban official also told Reuters that fighters in the Afghan capital started collecting weapons from civilians on Monday because people no longer need them for personal protection.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html
Quote from: flybynight on August 16, 2021, 07:35:54 AM
A Taliban official also told Reuters that fighters in the Afghan capital started collecting weapons from civilians on Monday because people no longer need them for personal protection.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html)
I wonder what comes next... :rolleyes1:
Quote from: Mr. E. Monkey on August 16, 2021, 10:16:47 AM
Quote from: flybynight on August 16, 2021, 07:35:54 AM
A Taliban official also told Reuters that fighters in the Afghan capital started collecting weapons from civilians on Monday because people no longer need them for personal protection.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html)
I wonder what comes next... :rolleyes1:
Even more bloodshed. Like literal rivers of blood.
All thanks to a f**k up of epic proportions.
I would say this is indeed a disaster.
I would like to just throw a reminder up to keep comments free of ... in this case ... "Incindary political commentary?"
Most of us have pretty intense feelings, and I actually think most of us are on the same page with what we feel. But we want to keep consistent with our rules and guidelines.
In general, a good guideline is "how does this relate to prepping?" Or "how is this impacting MY prepping?" I don't think this subject is directly related to prepping in the US or Europe. I think any preppers in Afganistan are probably way ahead of the game and well aware of this issue.
I do think there are prepping lessons for those in the US, but they get pretty political and I don't know if "now" is the right time to discuss those. Maybe someone else will approach those. I, personally, am not ready to do so in an even handed manner.
I do think this is a topic worth discussing, but I think it can be easy to tread on community rules while doing so. I just want to call attention to that fact.
Thanks.
To try to take a less personal, and more clinical look at this, as difficult, and frankly, gross-feeling as it may be, this may be useful as a lesson/guide to bugging out--what would we do in a similar situation, and what, in the coming days/weeks/months will prove to be effective, and what won't.
It doesn't sit right with me, and I feel awful even suggesting it. But since there really isn't anything I can do to change the situation, all I can do is learn from it. :(
Quote from: Mr. E. Monkey on August 16, 2021, 10:16:47 AM
Quote from: flybynight on August 16, 2021, 07:35:54 AM
A Taliban official also told Reuters that fighters in the Afghan capital started collecting weapons from civilians on Monday because people no longer need them for personal protection.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html)
I wonder what comes next... :rolleyes1:
What comes next?
I assign a high probability of another Mayaquez type incident (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayaguez_incident).
Lets just say I am sad for the people in Afghanistan who placed trust in our promises.
I am sad for the troops who sacrificed so much only to have this happen.
I will not comment further since they would dive off into politics.
How should this affect our preparations is much better direction to focus our attention.IMO short term we may see some domestic disturbances but really I do NOT think the violence in the street will be caused by this 1970's type failure.
I do however see other 1970's matters on the horizon. Including a lot of inflation.
Quote from: Mr. E. Monkey on August 16, 2021, 10:16:47 AM
Quote from: flybynight on August 16, 2021, 07:35:54 AM
A Taliban official also told Reuters that fighters in the Afghan capital started collecting weapons from civilians on Monday because people no longer need them for personal protection.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/strong-taliban-presence-seen-streets-113830645.html)
I wonder what comes next... :rolleyes1:
Taliban tells CNN reporter in Kabul to stand to the side because she's a woman as life changes overnight in the Afghan capital
https://www.yahoo.com/news/taliban-tells-cnn-reporter-kabul-132527995.html
Quote from: Mr. E. Monkey on August 16, 2021, 11:34:10 AM
To try to take a less personal, and more clinical look at this, as difficult, and frankly, gross-feeling as it may be, this may be useful as a lesson/guide to bugging out--what would we do in a similar situation, and what, in the coming days/weeks/months will prove to be effective, and what won't.
It doesn't sit right with me, and I feel awful even suggesting it. But since there really isn't anything I can do to change the situation, all I can do is learn from it. :(
I agree, on all points.
Quote from: Mr. E. Monkey on August 16, 2021, 11:34:10 AM
To try to take a less personal, and more clinical look at this, as difficult, and frankly, gross-feeling as it may be, this may be useful as a lesson/guide to bugging out--what would we do in a similar situation, and what, in the coming days/weeks/months will prove to be effective, and what won't.
It doesn't sit right with me, and I feel awful even suggesting it. But since there really isn't anything I can do to change the situation, all I can do is learn from it. :(
Indeed.
I feel for the people of Afghanistan, the innocent ones that are being caught up in this disaster.
None of them asked for any of this to happen. I fear there's going to be a bunch of their blood shed because they may have cooperated with US forces or befriended them. Whether true or not, there's bound to be someone in their villages who'll sell them out in order to save their own necks. We've seen that happen numerous times before and sadly we're likely to see it happen once again.
I'm no expert on Afghanistan - I wouldn't even describe myself as a novice - but so far the reports I've seen from the ground are relatively mild. The Taliban don't seem to have adopted the ISIS/ISIL playbook, the Kabul airport is still functioning, and they've not shown any inclination to try and stop the various evacuations.
I'm definitely not saying "all this is fine" but it also doesn't look as though this is turning into another Syria or Libya, at least not yet.
Quote from: sheddi on August 16, 2021, 12:48:43 PM
I'm no expert on Afghanistan - I wouldn't even describe myself as a novice - but so far the reports I've seen from the ground are relatively mild. The Taliban don't seem to have adopted the ISIS/ISIL playbook, the Kabul airport is still functioning, and they've not shown any inclination to try and stop the various evacuations.
I'm definitely not saying "all this is fine" but it also doesn't look as though this is turning into another Syria or Libya, at least not yet.
Given what little I know of Afghanistan and the entire Middle East, this is probably just another bump in the road in a region where stuff like this has been happening for hundreds of years.
I've been catching bits and pieces of information about what's been happening in The Graveyard of Empires, I wish I could say that any of it beyond the speed that the Taliban have retaken the capitols was surprising.
The Evil Monkey is right though, we should be learning everything we can from this and basing our own strategies on what information we can gather.
I've also been fighting back tears over it all, I keep going back and forth between heartbreak and rage. I left whatever innocence I had in The 'Stan.
When I can read anything about this travesty without having to fight back tears, I will.
Quote from: Mr. E. Monkey on August 16, 2021, 11:34:10 AM
To try to take a less personal, and more clinical look at this, as difficult, and frankly, gross-feeling as it may be, this may be useful as a lesson/guide to bugging out--what would we do in a similar situation, and what, in the coming days/weeks/months will prove to be effective, and what won't.
It doesn't sit right with me, and I feel awful even suggesting it. But since there really isn't anything I can do to change the situation, all I can do is learn from it. :(
As I re-read your post, j want to make clear... I'm not saying we need to be "clinical." I'm saying "let's not stray into 'X' leader was an idiot for 'Y' reason" or similar. We are human beings and I think all rational people are grieving over what is happening.
I've seen awful video today of Afghani civilians hanging onto the outside of U S planes as they take off. and fall to their death
Quote from: RoneKiln on August 15, 2021, 07:22:57 PM
Quote from: sheddi on August 15, 2021, 03:27:28 PM
This does seem to have happened remarkably quickly. The 1989 Republic of Afghanistan lasted three years from the Soviet withdrawal, while the latest Taliban campaign has only taken three months.
Some could argue it's been two decades. Large regions of the country were already under Taliban control, and they have far better communications technology than even existed in 1989.
Improved communications and logistics technologies also allows them to leverage large numbers of small disparate sources of outside support in ways they couldn't in 1989.
I'm just surprised so many people are shocked by this.
Many saw this coming a long time ago.
Americans wear wristwatches.
Afghanis just have time....
The Russiansdidn't learn from the Brits, we failed to learn from the Russians.
As I noted in my book The Story of the Mummified Stranger
one does not buy / own Afghans -- they are rental only....
I think I can address a lesson learned at this point, but I'm doubtful of my ability to articulate thoughts on how to mitigate a similar issue. Hopefully others can start building on this attempt at a start.
My understanding is a lot of territory was captured by threatening the families of large swaths of "middle management." Without the US sledgehammer to threaten annihilation upon those threatening their families, huge sections of national infrastructure surrendered fairly peacefully.
Last year in the US we saw a rise of protestors showing up at homes of politicians and police chiefs.
This is happening in Mexico as well as cartels gain more influence through threatening the families of politicians.
I do not believe what happened in the US, Mexico and Afghanistan are comparable to one another. I do see a similar underlying concept in methodology. I reference Mexico and the US to argue that all human societies are very susceptible to this tactic.
I think alertness and wariness of any faction going to the homes of government leaders and servants to drive political change is important.
Alertness to this may only help you bug out before the situation is as dire as in Kabul right now. Or as we all come to grips with this and sort out our thoughts better, we might be able to figure out how to better protect your local community from such tactics without it devolving into some assinine stroll through hollywood action movie stupidity.
Now, if ya'all lived near me, I'd invite everyone over for a few bottles of whiskey and lots of stupid discussion (or venting). But on this medium of communication, I hope we can keep it more constructive.
But I'm still drinking whiskey as I write this.
Quote from: RoneKiln on August 17, 2021, 12:40:54 AM
I think alertness and wariness of any faction going to the homes of government leaders and servants to drive political change is important.
You hit on something pretty universal. That is a bedrock tactic of guerilla warfare. Show up to an area, tell people "you can join me willingly, or I can kill you and your family and make the same offer to your successor." The success of a group depends on their ability to carry out the threat. This is also true of criminal groups. I won't get down the rabbit hole of semantics and "criminal vs guerilla."
The success of the established government depends on its ability to provide security to communities and leaders. Rural communities and leaders have traditionally been the most vulnerable. Current examples include Nigeria and Afganistan.
Sometimes it is urban areas which are more vulnerable. Tradionally it has been easier to exert social control in urban areas so those are the last to fall. If one sees urban areas falling, I would stop and ask "why?"
In Colombia and Mexico there are private groups which rise up against sources of violence. In Colombia these private groups became tolerated by the government. I sus5that is because they had no choice,. The government simply could not get a handle on the violence. In Mexico, from what I've seen so far, private groups are still unwelcome and seem to draw more official response than the cartels? That is what I think I'm seeing.
What I'm hearing about Afganistan, there was an expectation that government leaders had large military and police power. I heard the number "300,000" used to describe the power of the Afgan government and "75,000" used to describe the Taliban. The people I've been listening to said the real number of Afgan government forces was 50%-70% lower, because a bunch of leaders had 50%-70% fake names on their rosters to boost the money they would get for training, equipping, and fighting.
It is a Western cultural idea that governments govern for the benefit of the people. Everywhere else, governments govern for the benefit of those in power. Usually those are family or tribal groups.
Further, it was British history which gave us the idea that the King should be subject to the Law.
I feel it is important to understand that most of the world does not share Western or British cultural values. This understanding, I feel, helps us make sense of events around the world. I will also point out that it is not universally accepted in America that "the King is under the law" nor that "the government should govern for the benefit of the people rather than solely for the benefit of the tribe or family." You see this where you see more corrupt politicians. Ideally, the Police and the Courts keep people in line, but when you don't have a functional court system, a functional police system, and you have dysfunctional community leaders, you create the space needed for non-state actors to grow in power. Some are purely criminal in nature. Some have more political ambition and seek organized control offer the lives of others.
At this point you may be seeing the circle. And where one sees weak institutions, I would prepare for continued violence and unrest.
Quote from: woodsghost on August 16, 2021, 02:41:16 PM
As I re-read your post, j want to make clear... I'm not saying we need to be "clinical."
Right. I apologize if it came across as trying to put words in your mouth, that was all me. And clinical may not be the right word in the first place.
QuoteI'm saying "let's not stray into 'X' leader was an idiot for 'Y' reason" or similar. We are human beings and I think all rational people are grieving over what is happening.
You'll get no argument from me on any of that. :)
It's an emotional subject, and a personal one at that, for some among us. It's hard to set that aside, or not look at the situation through that lens. I'm not convinced that we should, entirely. But there are going to be things we can learn through this.
(But if you
do want to talk politics, I can give you an earful. :greenguy: )
I just watched a bit of footage from Kabul airport and seeing the Afghani civilians trying to cling to the side of a plane as it taxis down the runway is just heartbreaking.
If ever there was a term that would accurately describe this whole withdrawal from Afghanistan, I think "clusterf**k" would be it.
Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on August 17, 2021, 03:43:33 PM
If ever there was a term that would accurately describe this whole withdrawal from Afghanistan, I think "clusterf**k" would be it.
I try not to use those kinds of words anymore but sometimes there just isn't a better way to describe it.
Quote from: Lettuce Pray on August 17, 2021, 05:06:51 PM
Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on August 17, 2021, 03:43:33 PM
If ever there was a term that would accurately describe this whole withdrawal from Afghanistan, I think "clusterf**k" would be it.
I try not to use those kinds of words anymore but sometimes there just isn't a better way to describe it.
The messed up part is that's the most polite term I could think of.
I thought of a few others that'd make even Richard Marcinko or R. Lee Ermey blush.
I am finding it too difficult to watch anything about Afghanistan.
Given my families history with military service and the memories I have of watching the fall of Saigon, it is just too damn painful to watch.
My youngest son lost several friends in Afghanistan. He, himself, is now considered 85% disabled due to various injuries.
Too many lives lost, too many lives wasted.
Quote from: Raptor on August 16, 2021, 11:45:27 AMI do however see other 1970's matters on the horizon. Including a lot of inflation.
Please lay it on us :(