According to the NHC, maximum sustained winds within Milton could increase to 155 mph, which is only 2 mph shy of Category 5 strength.
Now a full blown Cat 5 monster with sustained winds of 165mph. Tampa/St Petersburg are directly in its crosshairs, at least for now. Reporting available to me suggests it'll remain at hurricane strength all the way across the breadth of Florida. Sincerely hoping it gives North Carolina a wide berth.
I'm worried about this one. I have an aunt and uncle in the Tampa/St Pete area and my 90 year old grandmother is staying with them. They are able to work remotely and have an RV so usually whenever a major hurricane is coming they just leave well in advance, but with so much damage from Helene I'm not sure if there is anywhere good for them to go.
I thought it was weird that they didn't leave for Helene, but it was probably for the best as they only lost power for a few days where they could have easily evacuated to somewhere things were worse.
As deadly as this one is building up to be, it's really hard to fear a storm named Milton. Maddox, I could fear. Maximo, I could sweat. Malek, I could dread. Milton is like a Jerry Lewis character.
Quote from: Optimist on October 07, 2024, 02:09:12 PMI'm worried about this one. I have an aunt and uncle in the Tampa/St Pete area and my 90 year old grandmother is staying with them. They are able to work remotely and have an RV so usually whenever a major hurricane is coming they just leave well in advance, but with so much damage from Helene I'm not sure if there is anywhere good for them to go.
I thought it was weird that they didn't leave for Helene, but it was probably for the best as they only lost power for a few days where they could have easily evacuated to somewhere things were worse.
IME you end up evacuating into the actual path of the storm when you think your escaping the predicted path, so as a Floridian not in a mandatory evacuation zone, [coastal storm surge areas] I hunker down, shore up, and then decide after the storm passes if we need to move to BOL1 or BOL2.
My wife has thrice evacuated from where the predicted path of the storm was going, to only move to where it actually hit. One time spending the duration on the turnpike in her car. :smiley_nah:
YMMV.
Quote from: NT2C on October 07, 2024, 02:24:56 PMAs deadly as this one is building up to be, it's really hard to fear a storm named Milton. Maddox, I could fear. Maximo, I could sweat. Malek, I could dread. Milton is like a Jerry Lewis character.
Now when I hear the name Milton I picture this guy.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2Foriginals%2Fcd%2Fc3%2F70%2Fcdc370a058c1075f9316f41e57180dda.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=c9d84acd45811a1b328c1ef01304a0fd7ba2e6b4ef017a8af93870a97bc3dbcf&ipo=images)
We have a pair of our local CERT members who moved to Bradenton, FL a couple of years ago, which is right about dead-center for the current projected track. They were here in Michigan this past week and just went back home to prep for the hurricane. They're both in the local CERT down there and try to help the neighbors get ready whenever storms are coming in. That was one of the big reasons that they decided to go back.
They're in a brand-new subdivision (rated for 150mph wind) and it's outside of the evacuation zones (it's even outside of 'Zone E' which is 33ft inundation) but that's still a big risk. Even if they don't get storm surge, there's still the wind / debris and potential flooding due to rain to contend with. Plus any impact to the infrastructure and businesses afterwards. They'd probably have been better off extending their stay here with their family / friends, rather than going back down and taking a hurricane right to the face, but that's what they wanted to do! :eek1:
New here said about it being a 5 when it makes landfall it will be a 4 or real strong 3. They said there is concern over all the debri and trash still left from Helen that ain't been cleared up yet.
I'm sitting tight for this one too. It could be a mess. At the moment my biggest concern is the my in-laws, who live right on the water, are evacuating to my house. :panic:
Quote from: Rednex on October 07, 2024, 04:20:37 PMNew here said about it being a 5 when it makes landfall it will be a 4 or real strong 3. They said there is concern over all the debri and trash still left from Helen that ain't been cleared up yet.
My news reported they have crews working until the last minute to clean up as much as possible and are forcing the landfills to remain open to receive loads. It was so much, though, I can't imagine enough of it will be removed in time. People were still cleaning up and the streets were lined with furniture and appliances and general stuff destroyed just days ago.
Quote from: Anianna on October 07, 2024, 09:29:51 PMQuote from: Rednex on October 07, 2024, 04:20:37 PMNew here said about it being a 5 when it makes landfall it will be a 4 or real strong 3. They said there is concern over all the debri and trash still left from Helen that ain't been cleared up yet.
My news reported they have crews working until the last minute to clean up as much as possible and are forcing the landfills to remain open to receive loads. It was so much, though, I can't imagine enough of it will be removed in time. People were still cleaning up and the streets were lined with furniture and appliances and general stuff destroyed just days ago.
I believe that was one of the reasons Desantis made a big deal about cutting locks on landfill gates
(https://media.foxweather.com/weather/AL14_Cone.png?v3)Here is the most recent track that I have seen which shows it moving slightly southward ...
1300 gas stations are completely dry. At this point further evacuation is nearly impossible anyway. Unless you happen to have a personal helicopter. I'm familiar with the Sarasota/Bradenton area and all major roads essentially become parking lots starting at least 24 hrs ahead of a major storm. I assume it's just as bad, if not worse, for the Tampa/St Petersburg area.
Watching this unfold is heartbreaking. It also reminds me of the importance of never letting your vehicle's gas tank get below half full. And to top it off at the first hint of a crisis.
@majorhavoc or a horse
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.vox-cdn.com%2Fthumbor%2FGwmQl14gbnJA9Tgq8q0N1mOiB20%3D%2F0x0%3A560x330%2F1200x900%2Ffilters%3Afocal(236x121%3A324x209)%3Ano_upscale()%2Fcdn.vox-cdn.com%2Fuploads%2Fchorus_image%2Fimage%2F62495462%2FThe-walking-dead.0.0.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=67190ff44f8de8443a5a19a428f85843c261f22d77e0ac6c5cea5d76e078b953&ipo=images)
Interestingly enough, Google Maps data shows things pretty clear on the major arteries. This has been pretty solid data over the last few days, so there is probably time for anyone who wants to make a run.
Quote from: majorhavoc on October 09, 2024, 08:34:18 AMI'm familiar with the Sarasota/Bradenton area and all major roads essentially become parking lots starting at least 24 hrs ahead of a major storm. I assume it's just as bad, if not worse, for the Tampa/St Petersburg area.
For those who want a live eye on Milton near landfall, there is a battery powered camera updating through the cellular network. It should stay up as long as the network does, or until it is inundated by storm surge. This area was hit hard by Helene, and surge here is forecasted to be as high as 15'.
https://hazcams.com/station/hazcams-mobile-005
This is the Evacuation Zones map for Sarasota County. Zones A, B, and C are currently under evacuation orders. I have never seen this for more than A in the 8+ years we have been here. Most locals I know can't remember this level of order either. These zones are primarily for flooding caused by storm surge, and that is predicted to be really bad.
https://sarco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/lookup/index.html?appid=0219841617274028b5bf5867fcf4c57b
That sure wasn't my and my parents' experience when they lived there. And the one constant visiting them over the course of 30 years is the volume of traffic steadily got worse year over year.
But for the sake of any tardy evacuees, I sincerely hope that traffic info is accurate.
@airballrad do you have the FL SARNET all programmed in your HAM's?
https://sarnetfl.org/uploads/6/1/7/0/61701057/20230910_sarnet_map.pdf
TX frequency is repeater talk-out. All UHF repeaters have a +5MHz offset for the talk-in repeater receiver
When this thing hit Cat 5 the other day, people started running. The ones that live near the coast especially, which is the area in the greatest danger. The gridlock was there on Sunday/Monday, and has been decreasing since.
Quote from: majorhavoc on October 09, 2024, 09:06:02 AMThat sure wasn't my and my parents' experience when they lived there. And the one constant visiting them over the course of 30 years is the volume of traffic steadily got worse year over year.
But for the sake of any tardy evacuees, I sincerely hope that traffic info is accurate.
I am not (yet) a HAM, but I do have my GMRS radio monitoring the local 2M repeater. I also have devices that can use Verizon, AT&T, or T-Mobile networks, as well as satellite messaging if the mobile networks all go down. So not where I'd like to be, but I'm in OK shape.
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 09, 2024, 09:07:39 AM@airballrad do you have the FL SARNET all programmed in your HAM's?
This whole dual hurricane situation is even all over the news in Europe.
What a mess. :gonk:
Quote from: airballrad on October 09, 2024, 09:23:02 AMI am not (yet) a HAM, but I do have my GMRS radio monitoring the local 2M repeater. I also have devices that can use Verizon, AT&T, or T-Mobile networks, as well as satellite messaging if the mobile networks all go down. So not where I'd like to be, but I'm in OK shape.
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 09, 2024, 09:07:39 AM@airballrad do you have the FL SARNET all programmed in your HAM's?
If you have a HAM radio I'd prioritize programming the SARNET repeaters near you. It's a statewide emergency network that is hardened against power and network outages. Just for listening to news and info if everything else goes down. If you don't have a HAM buy a $20 Baofeng and download CHIRP software and set it up just to listen.
During an emergency its for emergency traffic only, but when there's no emergency civilians can use it so its also a good place to listen for traffic as every repeater on that network connects to every other one so key west can talk to Pensacola and even south Georgia if they can reach those northern repeaters along the I-10 corridor.
You don't have to be a HAM to listen in on traffic and learn.
That's not a terrible idea. I don't have anything that can receive 70cm band transmissions, but I should probably go ahead and get one of those cheap HTs. My wife has encouraged me to hold off and get a quality unit after I get licensed, but she has seen me buy flashlights, tools, and other gadgets and she is afraid just how many radios I will end up with if I start cheap. :smiley_blink:
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 09, 2024, 09:52:57 AMIf you have a HAM radio I'd prioritize programming the SARNET repeaters near you. It's a statewide emergency network that is hardened against power and network outages. Just for listening to news and info if everything else goes down. If you don't have a HAM buy a $20 Baofeng and download CHIRP software and set it up just to listen.
The Max Velocity channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MaxVelocityWX) on YouTube is doing a live feed (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoi9e_kaRDE) right now and he's planning to do another one later this afternoon / evening as it approaches landfall. He's pulling in some live camera views and live weather map information too. Currently around 65-70k watchers on the feed!
Edited to add (11:41am on 10/9/24): Currently there are 5 tornado warnings in FL.
ETA (11:43am ET): A 6th tornado warning just popped up
ETA (11:45am ET): Now a 7th
ETA (11:49am ET): 8th
ETA (11:58am ET): Now up to 11; now close to 85k watchers on the live feed linked above
Cape Coral, FT Myers, Naples, Labelle, Clewston, Okeechobee, all the way over to West Palm Beach have a number of warnings.
If you're in central FL, please get to shelter!
ETA (12:08pm ET): The count is down to 7 active warnings, with several tornados confirmed on the ground west of Lake Okeechobee with one headed toward Lake Placid. He just switched to a live stream in Cape Coral as what appeared to be a waterspout crossed the bridge where the camera was - that was crazy!
ETA (12:44pm ET): New, large tornado on the ground near Suncoast Estates, FL
ETA (1:58pm ET): I checked back in and there are now 13 active tornado warnings in FL
Quote from: airballrad on October 09, 2024, 10:11:16 AMThat's not a terrible idea. I don't have anything that can receive 70cm band transmissions, but I should probably go ahead and get one of those cheap HTs. My wife has encouraged me to hold off and get a quality unit after I get licensed, but she has seen me buy flashlights, tools, and other gadgets and she is afraid just how many radios I will end up with if I start cheap. :smiley_blink:
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 09, 2024, 09:52:57 AMIf you have a HAM radio I'd prioritize programming the SARNET repeaters near you. It's a statewide emergency network that is hardened against power and network outages. Just for listening to news and info if everything else goes down. If you don't have a HAM buy a $20 Baofeng and download CHIRP software and set it up just to listen.
(looks over at the 15 HTs and 37 flashlights
just in his office and not counting other rooms in the house and the vehicles)
Yeah, it's not like they're addictive or anything...
(goes back to checking Amazon; UPS; USPS; Fed Ex package delivery time estimates for the day)
Power out at about 7:30 EST. Generator running like a champ, household at normal operation. Had a nice dinner and enjoying a cold beverage. Local HAMs running emergency comms from county shelters over 2M. $18 Boofywang HT on order from Amazon for the next time.
So far, so good.
I don't think I need to post any links to the hurricane coverage, as It's about the only thing on the news right now.
Just hoping we get a check-in from Airballrad and anybody else in FL.
I'm good in SE FL. Hardly any rain in WPB.
This was near my work AO yesterday while i was there. Everyone else had left already. A coworker in TAM sent it to me as a hint to shut down.
(https://i.imgur.com/DQpQK6O.jpg)
But my company location in Tampa currently has no power/internet. It's near I-75 so pretty far inland.
Woke up this morning to no power, no landline internet, no cellular network. It was a little disconcerting. I was able to get some sense of the world by listening to local FM stations that were carrying the audio for local TV news as they usually do during emergencies. I also got some information through the local GMRS repeater, which stayed up during and after the storm. I was also able to send and receive text messages via satellite using my iPhone, which was a nifty option in a pinch.
By around 2:00 this afternoon cell service was restored to my part of town. Still running on generator at this point, but it is performing well through whatever we throw at it. We have been very fortunate with minimal damage to our home. Lots of trees down in the area, but a direct hit from a Cat 3 will do that.
Nice to see you guys made it through ok!
Sounds like my relatives are fine. No power and can't go anywhere but otherwise okay.
Quote from: NT2C on October 09, 2024, 10:57:38 AMQuote from: airballrad on October 09, 2024, 10:11:16 AMThat's not a terrible idea. I don't have anything that can receive 70cm band transmissions, but I should probably go ahead and get one of those cheap HTs. My wife has encouraged me to hold off and get a quality unit after I get licensed, but she has seen me buy flashlights, tools, and other gadgets and she is afraid just how many radios I will end up with if I start cheap. :smiley_blink:
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 09, 2024, 09:52:57 AMIf you have a HAM radio I'd prioritize programming the SARNET repeaters near you. It's a statewide emergency network that is hardened against power and network outages. Just for listening to news and info if everything else goes down. If you don't have a HAM buy a $20 Baofeng and download CHIRP software and set it up just to listen.
(looks over at the 15 HTs and 37 flashlights just in his office and not counting other rooms in the house and the vehicles)
Yeah, it's not like they're addictive or anything...
(goes back to checking Amazon; UPS; USPS; Fed Ex package delivery time estimates for the day)
Having too many radios is never a problem, just like you can't have too many pocket knives or flashlights. I've at least 1 handheld in the car, besides the higher powered vehicle radio(s). I have them scattered all over the place. Work backpack - check, hunting backpack - check, coat - check, BOB(s) check.
I'd suggest getting your license and at
least one handheld per family member. Even if the rest of the family isn't licensed, they can listen. Baofengs allow you to program NOAA weather, and local (FM) emergency response frequencies so you can monitor them.
Quote from: Z.O.R.G. on October 13, 2024, 01:08:50 PMQuote from: NT2C on October 09, 2024, 10:57:38 AMQuote from: airballrad on October 09, 2024, 10:11:16 AMThat's not a terrible idea. I don't have anything that can receive 70cm band transmissions, but I should probably go ahead and get one of those cheap HTs. My wife has encouraged me to hold off and get a quality unit after I get licensed, but she has seen me buy flashlights, tools, and other gadgets and she is afraid just how many radios I will end up with if I start cheap. :smiley_blink:
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 09, 2024, 09:52:57 AMIf you have a HAM radio I'd prioritize programming the SARNET repeaters near you. It's a statewide emergency network that is hardened against power and network outages. Just for listening to news and info if everything else goes down. If you don't have a HAM buy a $20 Baofeng and download CHIRP software and set it up just to listen.
(looks over at the 15 HTs and 37 flashlights just in his office and not counting other rooms in the house and the vehicles)
Yeah, it's not like they're addictive or anything...
(goes back to checking Amazon; UPS; USPS; Fed Ex package delivery time estimates for the day)
Having too many radios is never a problem, just like you can't have too many pocket knives or flashlights. I've at least 1 handheld in the car, besides the higher powered vehicle radio(s). I have them scattered all over the place. Work backpack - check, hunting backpack - check, coat - check, BOB(s) check.
I'd suggest getting your license and at least one handheld per family member. Even if the rest of the family isn't licensed, they can listen. Baofengs allow you to program NOAA weather, and local (FM) emergency response frequencies so you can monitor them.
(looks around his
hotel room and starts counting radios (4); flashlights (7); firearms (2); and knives (6))
Well, you know, just in case...
Quote from: NT2C on October 13, 2024, 02:28:33 PM(looks around his hotel room and starts counting radios (4); flashlights (7); firearms (2); and knives (6))
Well, you know, just in case...
:smiley_clap: :smiley_clap:
Quote from: Z.O.R.G. on October 13, 2024, 02:41:40 PMQuote from: NT2C on October 13, 2024, 02:28:33 PM(looks around his hotel room and starts counting radios (4); flashlights (7); firearms (2); and knives (6))
Well, you know, just in case...
:smiley_clap: :smiley_clap:
Make that 7 knives. Forgot about my tiny assisted opener clipped to my suspender strap.
(https://kershaw.kaiusa.com/media/catalog/product/cache/94ced95c895cec7472be678f240a35d1/1/6/1600pink_profile_web.png) (https://kershaw.kaiusa.com/chive-pink.html)
We should start a thread for people to post pictures of their knife collections. I bet it would be quite revealing of who here has a knife problem quite reasonable and necessary assortment to address different needs and applications. :icon_crazy:
Final post-Milton status update: We got landline internet back yesterday, so all services now restored. We were very lucky that damage to our home was minimal and services were restored quickly (and backups meant our downtime was minimal). We had to re-route my son's travel home from college for his Fall break because our local airport had its roof destroyed and they have to make repairs before they can open for commercial air traffic again.
I now have my fancy $18 VHF/UHF HT to monitor local HAM traffic to stay informed. About eight hours of no cellular service was enough to make my wife concede that there may yet be practical value to a HAM radio license, so I will dust off my ARRL study guide and start studying up for Technician. :awesome:
Quote from: airballrad on October 14, 2024, 09:16:14 AMFinal post-Milton status update: We got landline internet back yesterday, so all services now restored. We were very lucky that damage to our home was minimal and services were restored quickly (and backups meant our downtime was minimal). We had to re-route my son's travel home from college for his Fall break because our local airport had its roof destroyed and they have to make repairs before they can open for commercial air traffic again.
I now have my fancy $18 VHF/UHF HT to monitor local HAM traffic to stay informed. About eight hours of no cellular service was enough to make my wife concede that there may yet be practical value to a HAM radio license, so I will dust off my ARRL study guide and start studying up for Technician. :awesome:
Normally, any member studying for and passing the ham license technician test qualifies for a free HT from me but since you already have one... I'll send you a nice, new mobile rig (antenna is going to be left up to you) for your bug-out buggy. :greenguy:
(and be sure to let the wife know that, unlike illegal cellphone use while driving, ham radio operators have exemptions from those laws in all 50 states, so she would be able to contact you while you're driving if she gets her license too)
Edit: and the way some of those exemptions are written they can apply to more than ham radio... Virginia has laws against radar detectors, but the way the ham radio exemption is written it can apply to radar detectors too since we hold a Federal license to operate around those frequencies.
You are too kind! I guess I am glad I have upfitter switches in my truck to shut all these things down when she climbs in. :greenguy:
Quote from: NT2C on October 14, 2024, 09:26:56 AMNormally, any member studying for and passing the ham license technician test qualifies for a free HT from me but since you already have one... I'll send you a nice, new mobile rig (antenna is going to be left up to you) for your bug-out buggy. :greenguy:
(and be sure to let the wife know that, unlike illegal cellphone use while driving, ham radio operators have exemptions from those laws in all 50 states, so she would be able to contact you while you're driving if she gets her license too)
BTW, if either you or your wife is concerned about getting a HAM license out secret weapon for the Field Day contest emergency preparedness event is an 8-year girl with her General. The question becomes, "are you as smart as a 3rd grader?"
Quote from: Z.O.R.G. on October 14, 2024, 06:19:56 PMBTW, if either you or your wife is concerned about getting a HAM license out secret weapon for the Field Day contest emergency preparedness event is an 8-year girl with her General. The question becomes, "are you as smart as a 3rd grader?"
As a VE I had the pleasure of testing and passing a 7-year-old extra.