Venezuela is claiming the Essequibo region of Guyana (which makes up about 2/3 of Guyana) as its own and asking its oil companies to start explorations there.
QuoteVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is plunging ahead with its plans to take over Essequibo, the oil-rich region controlled by neighboring Guyana.
He has ordered the state oil company to issue extraction licenses there and proposed the National Assembly pass a bill making the area part of Venezuela.
Guyana has put its defense forces on full alert in response.
Venezuelan voters on Sunday approved a referendum claiming rights over Essequibo, ratcheting up tensions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67635646
QuoteGuyana's President Irfaan Ali said the country is taking every necessary step to protect itself from Venezuela, which has ordered its state-owned companies to explore and exploit oil and minerals in Guyana's vast and resource-rich Essequibo region that it considers its own, the Associated Press reported on Wednesday. Ali shared similar sentiments in a Tuesday interview with CBS News, explaining that Guyana is preparing to defend the borders with Venezuela so they remain as they are.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/guyana-venezuela-conflict-defend-borders-disputed-region-oil-rich-essequibo-president-irfaan-ali/
Definitely seems like something that could kick off a war between the two and possibly drag in other countries. Guyana's military is much smaller than Venezuela's about 4600 vs 125,000 - 150,000, so that doesn't bode well for them, unless they get outside support.
The current boundary was set in 1899, but Venezuela seems to be taking a page out of the Russian playbook and just ignoring long-standing borders when there's a perceived gain to be had. As Tom Clancy said in Debt of Honor,
"War is the ultimate criminal act, an
armed robbery writ large."
I was just reading about this. With the amount of oil recently discovered in Guyana, I don't think "western" powers would take kindly to an invasion by Venezuela. Guyana would need outside support, as in boots on the ground, to resist Venezuela. The pool of likely support they could pull from is likely the UK, US and Brazil. Brazil's military is something like 2-3 times bigger than Venezuela's and has participated in multiple international deployments.
If this goes hot, it could get interesting very quickly.
The oil was discovered 5 years ago and has been pumped heavily since then. Their economy is growing at about 50% per year and they were finally starting to see some relief from poverty. This has created a huge amount of envy in Venezuela where hundreds of thousands of people have fled terrible economic conditions brought on by bad policy decisions.
Guyana has no military to speak of. They have appealed to the US and the UN. This runs counter to two key policies with the current UN administration - Clean energy and support of Venezuelan domestic policies. Allowing Venezuela to take over the oil fields would undoubtedly result in higher oil prices and lower production which is more in line with long term goals.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/venezuela-annex-guyana-maduro
QuoteThe dispute is being arbitrated by the international court of justice but Maduro asked the Venezuelan people on Sunday whether it should disregard the Hague and take matters into its own hands.
Though voter turnout was low and government figures have been widely questioned by observers, the Venezuelan government said 95% of voters agreed to ignore the court and recognise Essequibo as part of Venezuela. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/04/maduro-venezuela-guyana-essequibo-referendum-vote-turnout)
I have been following this for quite a whole. The Venezuela referendum was an interesting twist. More akin to asking your family if you want to go get your neighbors' stuff by moving the fence line.
The Venezuela claim has some merit, but they did not pursue it for decades and only when there was oil discovered did they express any interest. So yes this is nothing but a money grab.
Guyana is shall we say not exactly modern and not exactly a model of democracy. The area in question other than the offshore oil deposits is of questionable value except as region worth preserving in it natural state.
So yes this does bear watching.
Political, social and economic instability across the globe. Resultant mass migrations, further fueled by climate change. Multiple major conflicts threatening to spread to neighboring countries, and which embolden opportunistic moves by autocratic governments in completely different hemispheres.
I used to think that a third world war would arise from a straight up confrontation between the US and either China or Russia. What I'm seeing now seems like a much more likely scenario.
Sometimes I think that only in hindsight will we recognize that WW3 has already started.
Quote from: majorhavoc on December 08, 2023, 11:03:56 AMSometimes I think that only in hindsight will we recognize that WW3 has already started.
Some do recognize that WW3 has indeed started.
Hmm. Venezuela troops would need to go thru Brazil due to difficult terrain to get to Guyana.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67645018
RealLifeLore just released a lengthy video going over some of the history between Venezuela and Guyana and the possible reasoning behind Venezuela's actions. One update that was left out (because it just happened) is that Venezuela has since backed off of their rhetoric and agreed not to use force (https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/14/americas/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-summit-intl/index.html) in their dispute.
We super-duper-cross-our-hearts-and-hope-to-die-pinky-swear that we won't send those troops into Guyana as soon as your warships leave the area. We're completely honorable and trustworthy and how could you ever even think that we'd go back on our word?! Trust us! :awesome:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-says-troops-stay-deployed-214932594.html
Quote from: EBuff75 on December 23, 2023, 09:06:53 AMRealLifeLore just released a lengthy video going over some of the history between Venezuela and Guyana and the possible reasoning behind Venezuela's actions. One update that was left out (because it just happened) is that Venezuela has since backed off of their rhetoric and agreed not to use force (https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/14/americas/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-summit-intl/index.html) in their dispute.
Good. I was afraid the emperor was going to have to send a legion of Sardaukar down there.
I always suspected spice was just a sci fi metaphor for oil ...
This article has a picture of the British war ship sent to Guyana. The HMS Trent is not exactly the HMS Queen Elizabeth and her escorts.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12909253/Britain-warned-dont-mess-Venezuela-President-Maduro-slams-decadent-rotten-ex-empire-UK-sending-Navy-warship-protect-Guyana.html
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/12/29/10/79306799-12909253-HMS_Trent_a_vessel_used_for_defence_diplomacy_according_to_the_g-a-39_1703844005607.jpg)
But then considering the Venezuelan navy lost a "war ship" to a cruise liner in 2020; I guess there is an argument that the HMS Trent poses a credible threat to Venezuela.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52151951
Venezuela would be well advised not to discount any aspect of His Majesty's Navy, no matter how small or unassuming.
Quote from: Raptor on January 04, 2024, 12:38:34 PMBut then considering the Venezuelan navy lost a "war ship" to a cruise liner in 2020; I guess there is an argument that the HMS Trent poses a credible threat to Venezuela.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52151951
That is pure hilarity.
All of it.
Trying to pirate a vessel with their "coast guard" and failing, trying to ram a huge ice breaker in the bow to make it "turn around", losing the ship and then making counter accusations. They make the Iranian Navy look down right competent.
Quote from: majorhavoc on January 04, 2024, 01:34:10 PMVenezuela would be well advised not discount any aspect of His Majesty's Navy, no matter how small or unassuming.
Agreed!
That and do not pick another fight with a Portuguese flagged icebreaker class cruise ship (In international waters no less). The damage control for the cruise ship consisted of two guys with wire brushes and about 5 gallons of paint.
Quote from: Raptor on January 04, 2024, 01:44:28 PMThat and do not pick another fight with a Portuguese flagged icebreaker class cruise ship (In international waters no less).
AND
(https://ufozs.com/smf/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quickmeme.com%2Fimg%2F73%2F739c94a3083de7f7892e762031b023f180ec2378678f84543bb5fc20eeb5beaa.jpg&hash=a5fdd041f6d648468b58c5b2eacc9d993dead5f5)
Quote from: MacWa77ace on January 04, 2024, 03:44:48 PMQuote from: Raptor on January 04, 2024, 01:44:28 PMThat and do not pick another fight with a Portuguese flagged icebreaker class cruise ship (In international waters no less).
AND
(https://ufozs.com/smf/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quickmeme.com%2Fimg%2F73%2F739c94a3083de7f7892e762031b023f180ec2378678f84543bb5fc20eeb5beaa.jpg&hash=a5fdd041f6d648468b58c5b2eacc9d993dead5f5)
(https://i.postimg.cc/26dYmTKT/Venezualan-Patrol-Boat.png)
Just when it seemed like everything there had calmed back down:
QuoteVenezuela's parliament has approved a law creating a federal state in the disputed oil-rich area of Essequibo across the border in Guyana, which on Friday slammed a "flagrant violation" of its sovereignty.
https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240322-venezuela-s-parliament-approves-creation-of-state-in-disputed-oil-rich-essequibo