You may want to make sure your freedom seeds are up to the your desired inventory levels. The current supplies of NATO small arms ammo is reported to be low. If the US starts sending ammunition to Israel as well as Ukraine supplies will get tighter very quickly.
I am not saying panic buy just that it is currently available at somewhat reasonable price points. That may not be the case in a few weeks.
If I remember correctly, Israel has domestic producers of ammunition.
I think IMI is the name of one of them. I see that brand on MidwayUSA all the time.
Israel is also not a member of NATO so it's unlikely they'd cause any notable strain on existing supplies.
I imagine a country that views itself as being surrounded by enemies and where regular people have safe rooms, maintains a very high level of "consumable" supplies.
Israel mobilized 300,000 reservists. Each one will some ammo. That is huge surge in demand.
I hope I am wrong That said...hope is not the best plan A.
:)
This is from Jan 2023 discussing how the ready reserve of ammo and munitions stockpiled in Israel has been used on Ukraine.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-quietly-shipping-ammo-to-ukraine-from-massive-stockpile-in-israel-report/
This article deals munitions, but small arms ammo may come later.
https://nypost.com/2023/10/10/first-us-weapons-arrive-in-israel-after-hamas-attacks-idf/
One of the lessons re-learned in Ukraine is how fast a war actually burns through equipment and supplies. It's not necessarily hard to manufacture the things needed (particularly basic munitions sort of stuff), but getting the plants switched over / built and the supply chain set up takes time to do. When there's suddenly a call for hundreds of millions, or even billions of rounds of ammo that weren't currently in the supply setup, it takes time to get that spun up.
Israel has the capacity to meet many of their own needs initially, but will quickly start to need outside assistance to replenish it, presuming that this war goes like their previous wars have. It's easy to forget how small it really is, not to mention how resource-poor of a country it is for the raw materials that will be needed. They're going to need a massive bump in imported materials (metals, chemicals) in order to make ammo, as well as already-manufactured ammo to fill in any gaps before they might be able to meet the production demands. In the meantime, I would expect that they'll slam the door shut on any exports of ammunition so that they can use the production locally.
Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 10, 2023, 05:07:15 PMIf I remember correctly, Israel has domestic producers of ammunition.
I think IMI is the name of one of them. I see that brand on MidwayUSA all the time.
Correct. That was the point.
Quote from: NT2C on October 10, 2023, 08:40:16 PMIsrael is also not a member of NATO so it's unlikely they'd cause any notable strain on existing supplies.
That isn't how supply chains work.
Quote"We are working as fast as possible to provide critically needed munitions of various types and other equipment. We're also contacting U.S. industry to gain expedited shipment of pending Israeli orders for military equipment that otherwise may have been considered routine for movement," the senior defense official said in yesterday's briefing. "We're also working across the DOD enterprise, including with U.S. Central Command, to assess what munitions and other equipment are in U.S. inventory that can be made quickly available for Israel."
"There's already a new tranche of material going to Israel," Kirby said on MSNBC. "It's definitely on the way. And it does include interceptor missiles, some artillery ammunition, and other types of munitions that we know will be important for the Israeli Defense Forces."
The official insisted the U.S. has the capability to continue to support both Ukraine and Israel while maintaining the global readiness of the U.S. military.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-not-ruling-out-commando-mission-to-rescue-american-hostages-held-by-hamas-in-gaza
Personally I am extremely skeptical. The government has a terrible track record with predicting the future and what they can and can't do. Even if they can, it says nothing about the civilian market. Be that as it is, I am reasonably well stocked on zombie pills. I am pretty frugal with my range trips and don't waste much. I don' know if it will ever get back to 2008-11 levels of pain again where we had a nexus event of politics, disasters and odd business cycle that made it crazy short, but I hope not.
Note that in the article the US is also floating the idea of sending SOF troops into Gaza and the West Bank. IMO, This is the granddaddy of bad ideas. Forget about getting the camel nose under the tent, we are extremely vulnerable to attack from terrorists sneaking in across our unguarded Southern border. Assuming they aren't already here, which is likely. If the US jumps into this briar patch all bets are off so far as ammo goes, a lot of other things as well.
US ammo arrives in Israel ahead of expected ground operation in Gaza (https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-ammo-arrives-israel-ahead-expected-ground-operation-gaza)
My point regarding Israel not being a NATO member was that Israel would not be directly drawing down on current NATO stocks. It may affect future production but as for what stocks we currently hold at various locations, those stockpiles should not need to be reduced.
Practically everything the IDF shoot is NATO caliber. The US, Germany, Brits, France and Italy have all committed to sending munitions. I am not sure what I am missing here.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 11, 2023, 08:20:59 AMPractically everything the IDF shoot is NATO caliber. The US, Germany, Brits, France and Italy have all committed to sending munitions. I am not sure what I am missing here.
Perhaps things have changed since my military time working with ammo storage and supplies but back then it wasn't just one big pile marked "AMMO", there were specific stockpiles for specific purposes that were not touched for any other purpose (other than stock rotation). Forward-deployed NATO stockpiles would be a good example of such. If our .mil and .gov types are raiding that particular cookie jar to supply Israel then China and Russia must be looking on with glee.
I had done an ammo count last weekend.
Wife: What'er you doing?
Mac: Counting ammo.
Wife: Yeah, we need more ammo. [in earnest, she's not sarcastic ]
After counting I was planning on upping my 556 another level* since prices are not terrible. And then starting to cache a new type 556 77gr JHP.
After seeing the news story this morning about the ammo delivery from US to Israel, I said out loud to my wife, "there goes the price of ammo." :headbang:
*1K to 2K rnds
Quote from: NT2C on October 11, 2023, 08:48:27 AMQuote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 11, 2023, 08:20:59 AMPractically everything the IDF shoot is NATO caliber. The US, Germany, Brits, France and Italy have all committed to sending munitions. I am not sure what I am missing here.
Perhaps things have changed since my military time working with ammo storage and supplies but back then it wasn't just one big pile marked "AMMO", there were specific stockpiles for specific purposes that were not touched for any other purpose (other than stock rotation). Forward-deployed NATO stockpiles would be a good example of such. If our .mil and .gov types are raiding that particular cookie jar to supply Israel then China and Russia must be looking on with glee.
Yep.
Quote If our .mil and .gov types are raiding that particular cookie jar to supply Israel then China and Russia must be looking on with glee.
We will not be privy to the truth. That said there are public articles about taking ammunition and munitions from the US stockpile in Israel early in 2023 and giving them to Ukraine. That was likely a mix of 155mm shells that are in short supply but likely also included a mixed bag of munitions and small arms ammo.
The good news for us anyway (most of us do not have 155mm howitzers) is that Ukraine still uses a lot of 7.62x39 & 5.45x39. That said in pictures I am seeing a bunch of M-16/M-4 so they clearly are using 5.56x45mm.
https://www.militaryfactory.com/smallarms/detail.php?smallarms_id=1270
https://www.militaryfactory.com/smallarms/detail.php?smallarms_id=592
I suspect that any stockpiles that had "extra" have been harvested. The NATO ammo that is imported from Israel will likely be diverted for internal use. Other countries have been selling ammo in the US which both increased supply and reduced prices. The easiest place to get replacement ammo for Israel is these overseas sources.
There are shipments that are still in transit and likely further orders for shipment to the US.
That said we have seen 300,000 new consumers of ammo (IDF reservists) come into the demand side of the supply and demand curve. I suspect that will make a negative impact on US civilian supplies and there prices thereon.
This is pure speculation on my part. I am not saying go out and buy, but rather make sure you will not need to resupply in the next few months.
One thing I can guarantee will happen is ammo scalpers will come out of the woodwork and begin snatching up as much 5.56 and other NATO calibers as they can and then try to offload it online for 10 times (or more) than what they paid for it.
Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 11, 2023, 05:14:48 PMOne thing I can guarantee will happen is ammo scalpers will come out of the woodwork and begin snatching up as much 5.56 and other NATO calibers as they can and then try to offload it online for 10 times (or more) than what they paid for it.
Absolutely.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 12, 2023, 08:00:25 AMQuote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 11, 2023, 05:14:48 PMOne thing I can guarantee will happen is ammo scalpers will come out of the woodwork and begin snatching up as much 5.56 and other NATO calibers as they can and then try to offload it online for 10 times (or more) than what they paid for it.
Absolutely.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3ov9k1HKz17XL1aCdy/giphy.gif)
Speaking of ammo scalpers, anyone check what Cheaper Than Dirt is selling ammo for yet ?
I'm getting the feeling they'll be advertising 5.56 ammo at 90 bucks for a 20 round box here soon.
Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 12, 2023, 02:53:59 PMSpeaking of ammo scalpers, anyone check what Cheaper Than Dirt is selling ammo for yet ?
I'm getting the feeling they'll be advertising 5.56 ammo at 90 bucks for a 20 round box here soon.
As of two minutes ago it was $9.89 for 20 rounds of 55 grain. Still within the realm of reasonable. I hope I am wrong.
https://www.cheaperthandirt.com/winchester-service-grade-5.56-nato-ammunition-20-rounds-fmj-55-grains/FC-020892225626.html
Quote from: Raptor on October 12, 2023, 03:10:05 PMQuote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 12, 2023, 02:53:59 PMSpeaking of ammo scalpers, anyone check what Cheaper Than Dirt is selling ammo for yet ?
I'm getting the feeling they'll be advertising 5.56 ammo at 90 bucks for a 20 round box here soon.
As of two minutes ago it was $9.89 for 20 rounds of 55 grain. Still within the realm of reasonable. I hope I am wrong.
https://www.cheaperthandirt.com/winchester-service-grade-5.56-nato-ammunition-20-rounds-fmj-55-grains/FC-020892225626.html
Seems to be about average from what I've seen online.
Knowing Cheaper Than Dirts MO when it comes to ammo shortages, it's only a matter of time before that 10 dollar box becomes a 50 dollar or higher box.
Per Ammoseek the cheapest per box of 20 (bulk is slightly cheaper) is $7.99 per box +shipping and tax.
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/pmc-5.56x-x-tac-5.56x45mm-nato-55-gr-full-metal-jacket-boat-tail-fmjbt-20-bx-50-cs?asaid=as0004
NOTE: I am not saying panic buy!
If you have sufficient inventory on hand, tracking the price of a box of 20 is IMO a good way to gauge the level of supplies available.
It has been reported that over the intertubes that Lake City has cancelled future sales of ammo to civilians. IMO this has not been "official" confirmed but at this point it is out and you may expect to see some pricing changes.
The commonly linked report:
https://stapledefense.com/lake-city-plant-commercial-contracts/
Quote from: Raptor on October 16, 2023, 10:25:06 AMPer Ammoseek the cheapest per box of 20 (bulk is slightly cheaper) is $7.99 per box +shipping and tax.
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/pmc-5.56x-x-tac-5.56x45mm-nato-55-gr-full-metal-jacket-boat-tail-fmjbt-20-bx-50-cs?asaid=as0004
NOTE: I am not saying panic buy!
If you have sufficient inventory on hand, tracking the price of a box of 20 is IMO a good way to gauge the level of supplies available.
It has been reported that over the intertubes that Lake City has cancelled future sales of ammo to civilians. IMO this has not bee "official" confirmed but at this point it is out and you may expect to see some pricing changes.
The commonly linked report:
https://stapledefense.com/lake-city-plant-commercial-contracts/
I would prefer to see an actual news source if you know of one. Unable to locate one myself. One would think that if there were multiple sources they would be easy to locate.
Here is LC's FB page with past press releases. Not a whisper.
https://www.facebook.com/LakeCityArmyAmmunitionPlant/
Here is Olin's Investor Relations Press Release Page. Also not a whisper of a major event that would have huge impacts on their bottom line.
https://olin.com/investors/events-presentations/press-releases/
I think I'm good on 5.56 and 7.62x51. Could probably use a little more 9mm and .45ACP but I can't see any scenario where I manage to expend all my rifle and shotgun rounds and have to fight with just pistols and my PCC. No fucking way is a fat old disabled fart like me gonna last that long.
I could use more 12ga. slugs though, simply because I like sending those fat cannonballs downrange to rattle the steel at 100 yards. I can put 8 on steel at that range in under 25 seconds. :shades:
I watched this with my wife yesterday, she keeps asking do you have that, do we have that, and so on.
Yep
Yep
We're good
Yep
Yep
I say we don't have night vision "yet" and he left out the gas masks, w/ radiological filters, Geiger counter, and iodine tabs
Remember, this is just a guns and gear list.
Quote from: NT2C on October 16, 2023, 12:00:14 PMI think I'm good on 5.56 and 7.62x51. Could probably use a little more 9mm and .45ACP but I can't see any scenario where I manage to expend all my rifle and shotgun rounds and have to fight with just pistols and my PCC. No fucking way is a fat old disabled fart like me gonna last that long.
I could use more 12ga. slugs though, simply because I like sending those fat cannonballs downrange to rattle the steel at 100 yards. I can put 8 on steel at that range in under 25 seconds. :shades:
You're Hickock45? Of course, it all makes sense now ...
Quote from: majorhavoc on October 16, 2023, 01:53:42 PMQuote from: NT2C on October 16, 2023, 12:00:14 PMI think I'm good on 5.56 and 7.62x51. Could probably use a little more 9mm and .45ACP but I can't see any scenario where I manage to expend all my rifle and shotgun rounds and have to fight with just pistols and my PCC. No fucking way is a fat old disabled fart like me gonna last that long.
I could use more 12ga. slugs though, simply because I like sending those fat cannonballs downrange to rattle the steel at 100 yards. I can put 8 on steel at that range in under 25 seconds. :shades:
You're Hickock45? Of course, it all makes sense now ...
Nah, he's way cooler than me.
Quote from: NT2C on October 16, 2023, 12:00:14 PMI think I'm good on 5.56 and 7.62x51. Could probably use a little more 9mm and .45ACP but I can't see any scenario where I manage to expend all my rifle and shotgun rounds and have to fight with just pistols and my PCC. No fucking way is a fat old disabled fart like me gonna last that long.
I could use more 12ga. slugs though, simply because I like sending those fat cannonballs downrange to rattle the steel at 100 yards. I can put 8 on steel at that range in under 25 seconds. :shades:
I'd like to pick up some more .45 ACP, 7.62x39 and 5.56, but I may have to wait a bit until my finances are in a better place.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 16, 2023, 11:30:08 AMHere is Olin's Investor Relations Press Release Page. Also not a whisper of a major event that would have huge impacts on their bottom line.
https://olin.com/investors/events-presentations/press-releases/
Actually if this is as stated, then this would not be a negative event for the shareholders since the .gov would be buying all "excess production". Typically this type of event is not listed here unless an SEC filing is required.
I do not disagree with your skepticism however. The fact that there appears to be a single source also made me cautious which is why I wrote the post that way.
Now I will also note the 2n qtr presentation earnings package.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/b2icontent.irpass.cc/1548/190981.pdf
Page 3 shows they are expecting q3 (now) to be 10% lower due to "Competative Commercial Pricing". That is CFO speak for sales price for commercial ammo sales being lower enough to offset the projected growth in other Contracts. They make more money on .gov contracts unless commercial (you & me) ammo prices are silly high.
Quote3Q Adjusted EBITDA will be approximately 10% lower than 2Q • Winchester – international and domestic military growth – partially offset by competitive commercial pricing
As a consequence one of their key initiatives (page 4) is:
QuoteWinchester – Doubling military sales via domestic & international growth
They want to make military sales 2x.
All of this would be reason for them to reduce civilian sales for all but the highest margin customers. Accordingly it would not surprise me if they limited renewal commercial sales agreements.
I didn't know Hornady had another fire a few years ago.
I asked a friend who was going to town to pick me up another box of .30-06 and a couple boxes of .44 mag. Everything else I've either got quite a bit of or I don't care that much about.
Quote from: Optimist on October 17, 2023, 11:01:27 PMI asked a friend who was going to town to pick me up another box of .30-06 and a couple boxes of .44 mag. Everything else I've either got quite a bit of or I don't care that much about.
I asked the friend to buy inexpensive ammo because I already had a few boxes of the good stuff in .44 and .30-06 but didn't have much less expensive practice ammo.
The cheapest 180 grain .30-06 was $49 a box and the cheapest .44 mag was $56 a box. :gonk:
I haven't bought ammo for either of those cartridges in a couple years. I hope that it was just hunting season wiping out the selection of less expensive stuff and that this ammo is actually decent and not that this is the new normal price for the cheapest options.
Quote from: Optimist on October 18, 2023, 04:07:46 PMQuote from: Optimist on October 17, 2023, 11:01:27 PMI asked a friend who was going to town to pick me up another box of .30-06 and a couple boxes of .44 mag. Everything else I've either got quite a bit of or I don't care that much about.
I asked the friend to buy inexpensive ammo because I already had a few boxes of the good stuff in .44 and .30-06 but didn't have much less expensive practice ammo.
The cheapest 180 grain .30-06 was $49 a box and the cheapest .44 mag was $56 a box. :gonk:
I haven't bought ammo for either of those cartridges in a couple years. I hope that it was just hunting season wiping out the selection of less expensive stuff and that this ammo is actually decent and not that this is the new normal price for the cheapest options.
.30-06 no S&H or tax
180 gr PPU $18.40
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/ppu-pp30063-standard-rifle-30-06-springfield-180-gr-soft-point-sp-20-bx-10-cs?asaid=as0004
150 Gr Remington @ $20.
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/remington-ammunition-r30062-core-lokt-30-06-springfield-150-gr-core-lokt-pointed-soft-point-pspcl-20-bx-10-cs?asaid=as0004
.44 mag no S&H or tax $18 for 25 rd box
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/pmc-44d-bronze-44-rem-mag-240-gr-truncated-cone-soft-point-tcsp-25-bx-20-cs?asaid=as0004
EDITED to add: Sorry I forgot you are in AK.
Quote from: Raptor on October 18, 2023, 05:33:40 PMQuote from: Optimist on October 18, 2023, 04:07:46 PMQuote from: Optimist on October 17, 2023, 11:01:27 PMI asked a friend who was going to town to pick me up another box of .30-06 and a couple boxes of .44 mag. Everything else I've either got quite a bit of or I don't care that much about.
I asked the friend to buy inexpensive ammo because I already had a few boxes of the good stuff in .44 and .30-06 but didn't have much less expensive practice ammo.
The cheapest 180 grain .30-06 was $49 a box and the cheapest .44 mag was $56 a box. :gonk:
I haven't bought ammo for either of those cartridges in a couple years. I hope that it was just hunting season wiping out the selection of less expensive stuff and that this ammo is actually decent and not that this is the new normal price for the cheapest options.
.30-06 no S&H or tax
180 gr PPU $18.40
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/ppu-pp30063-standard-rifle-30-06-springfield-180-gr-soft-point-sp-20-bx-10-cs?asaid=as0004
150 Gr Remington @ $20.
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/remington-ammunition-r30062-core-lokt-30-06-springfield-150-gr-core-lokt-pointed-soft-point-pspcl-20-bx-10-cs?asaid=as0004
.44 mag no S&H or tax
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/pmc-44d-bronze-44-rem-mag-240-gr-truncated-cone-soft-point-tcsp-25-bx-20-cs?asaid=as0004
That's more along the lines of what I was expecting! Unfortunately ammunition can't be shipped to Alaska because it's considered hazmat.
I spent some time looking up the stuff he got and it looks like the .30-06 (Hornady Outfitter 180 grn CX) was pretty high-end. I'm guessing moose hunting season just wiped out most of their selection.
Quote from: Optimist on October 18, 2023, 05:38:04 PMQuote from: Raptor on October 18, 2023, 05:33:40 PMQuote from: Optimist on October 18, 2023, 04:07:46 PMQuote from: Optimist on October 17, 2023, 11:01:27 PMI asked a friend who was going to town to pick me up another box of .30-06 and a couple boxes of .44 mag. Everything else I've either got quite a bit of or I don't care that much about.
I asked the friend to buy inexpensive ammo because I already had a few boxes of the good stuff in .44 and .30-06 but didn't have much less expensive practice ammo.
The cheapest 180 grain .30-06 was $49 a box and the cheapest .44 mag was $56 a box. :gonk:
I haven't bought ammo for either of those cartridges in a couple years. I hope that it was just hunting season wiping out the selection of less expensive stuff and that this ammo is actually decent and not that this is the new normal price for the cheapest options.
.30-06 no S&H or tax
180 gr PPU $18.40
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/ppu-pp30063-standard-rifle-30-06-springfield-180-gr-soft-point-sp-20-bx-10-cs?asaid=as0004
150 Gr Remington @ $20.
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/remington-ammunition-r30062-core-lokt-30-06-springfield-150-gr-core-lokt-pointed-soft-point-pspcl-20-bx-10-cs?asaid=as0004
.44 mag no S&H or tax
https://www.gmansportingarms.com/product/pmc-44d-bronze-44-rem-mag-240-gr-truncated-cone-soft-point-tcsp-25-bx-20-cs?asaid=as0004
That's more along the lines of what I was expecting! Unfortunately ammunition can't be shipped to Alaska because it's considered hazmat.
I spent some time looking up the stuff he got and it looks like the .30-06 (Hornady Outfitter 180 grn CX) was pretty high-end. I'm guessing moose hunting season just wiped out most of their selection.
Yes sorry about that...
The Hornady premium ammo in my area is closer to $75 a box due to hunting season. I do not even look for hunting ammo in my area this time of year since the pricing is silly high.