https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/index.html)
Over 2000 rockets launched from the Gaza strip into Israeli cities and settlements as part of a coordinated cross border incursion. Several Israeli settlements have been taken over by Hamas militants. IDF has responded with massive airstrikes in Gaza.
In my mind the big wildcard is Iran. They are known supporters of Hamas. But this attack suggests a whole other level of involvement given its size, scope and complexity. This has ramifications well beyond the Gaza strip.
(https://e3.365dm.com/23/10/768x432/skynews-israel-gaza-tank_6312022.jpg)
PM says they are at war.
The political rhetoric related to this is amazing. I will go no further on that subject.
IMO if anyone starts shelling civilians out of the blue they deserve whatever retaliation they get.
Those who wage war on civilians deserve no quarter.
New link to Jerusalem Post Middle East and Israel News | All Breaking News | The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com) (https://www.jpost.com/) for local update.
We're likely to see the number go up significantly in the next few days. There are some reports that Hasbullah in Lebanon approached the northern border of Israel and took fire from the IDF.
Coordination of a land, sea and air attack is not a simple thing, especially without given indication. Given the planning put into the attack and the terrorists use of asymmetric warfare, I'd expect there are surprises waiting for the IDF if/when they enter Gaza.
A huge intelligence failure on the part of Mossad and the US.
From what I have read so far this was in fact a massive and coordinated terror attack. They use rockets attacks to get the population into shelters. Then sent over personnel on motorcycles and paragliders with the intent to sow terror and confusion while other units attacked specific military point to hamper any response. The thugs on motorcycle would shoot civilians to sow terror on the way to point targets. That activity brings resources away the point targets. I have not seen what the paraglider elements attacked but that would put armed point person where ever they wanted.
They also captured hostages as they could do so...or simply killed them.
What is not clear to me is the intent. The military gains are not likely to long lived. The retaliation has started with airstrikes.
Yes they killed Israelis, embarrassed the government in doing so but beyond that, the end game of such a massive attack does not make sense to me.
Israel has mobilized their reserves and has declared war though I am not sure . Meanwhile the Palestinian Islamic jihad said its group had joined the attack along with Hamas.
So this is not going to be over anytime soon.
Note these links show violence and death hence only the link is displayed.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-gaza-rockets-attack-palestinians/card/videos-on-social-media-show-capture-of-civilians-soldiers-Q7gp8xxnhI6DDavXTpIe
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12606553/Female-Israeli-soldier-killed-Hamas-paraded-truck-actually-German-tattoo-artist-30-attending-music-festival-devastated-family-say-nightmare.html
https://videos.skynews.com/media/v1/pmp4/static/clear/6058004172001/d9672bc5-a2c4-4b3a-ad78-19e987822b1e/c7b8ff79-c22f-4f59-91a1-923e491087eb/main.mp4
Quote from: DarkAxel on October 07, 2023, 08:37:35 PMA huge intelligence failure on the part of Mossad and the US.
Military experts say the Hamas attacks were unusually sophisticated.
(https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack/military-experts-say-the-hamas-attacks-were-unusually-sophisticated?smid=url-share)
Non-subscribers will probably hit the NYTimes paywall, so I'm quoting a longer than normal passage:
Quote"The attack itself was very complex," said Mick Mulroy, a former top Pentagon Middle East official and retired C.I.A. paramilitary officer.
Mr. Mulroy said the invasion was preceded by a barrage of thousands of rockets and missiles that likely stunned much of the Israeli armed forces and the police forces. Militants then used technical means to disrupt Israel communications, he said, before launching a multipronged air, sea and land attack with assaulters roaring in on tractors to clear Israeli defensive barriers. Pickup trucks loaded with soldiers, small boats and manned paragliders were also part of the assault.
"These multiple means of attack probably gave the IDF a significant tactical dilemma," Mr. Mulroy said, referring to the Israeli military.
Javed Ali, a former White House counterterrorism official now at the University of Michigan's Ford School, concurred, saying in an email that "the attack was stunning in its scope, complexity and impact in Israel. Never before had the group launched a multifaceted operation to this extent, which almost certainly required months of deliberate planning and coordination."
The element of surprise played a large role in the attacks' initial success, outside experts said.
"From a purely military perspective, the Hamas operation was groundbreaking," said Bilal Saab, director of the Middle East Institute's defense and security program in Washington. "The missiles were used for diversion. The goal was infiltration, which succeeded. This is what Hezbollah threatened Israel with in the 2000s."
Mr. Ali said it was odd that Israeli intelligence appeared to have missed signs the attack was coming. "Significant questions arise over how Israeli intelligence was unable to detect strategic or tactical indicators of the operation, given their longstanding excellence in domestic and foreign intelligence," Mr. Ali said.
Analysts also said they saw the probable influence, if not direct support, from Iran in the strikes, especially given Tehran's longstanding relationship with Hamas and its supply of money, weapons, and training.
"The operation's complexity indicates a nation-state like Iran was behind this supporting the attackers with weapons and munitions, intelligence, and possibly operational planning," said Mr. Mulroy.
QuoteWhat is not clear to me is the intent.
QuoteIn recent weeks, diplomats from the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia have told NBC News that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden have all expressed support for an agreement that would result in Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel diplomatically.
Diplomats say that if Saudi Arabia agreed to recognize Israel it would lead other Arab states to do so. A series of such agreement would end decades of hostility between Israel and its neighbors dating back to 1948.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/significance-hamas-chose-attack-israel-now-rcna119351
Hammas will kill as many people as necessary to prevent the normalization of relations with the Saud. If that happens everyone else will have to fall in line.
I think you have a reasonable explanation of the goal. That also explains why Hamas announced that Iran supplied financing.
The logic makes sense in a horrific way.
QuoteThat also explains why Hamas announced that Iran supplied financing.
That is more of an information operations (propaganda) poke at the US. The $6B that was returned to Iran for "humanitarian purposes" becomes an issue in the US for infighting. The story line in the ME will now read that the US isn't interested in peace. Instead they are bank rolling both sides to fight each other.
I'd consider filling your tank(s). I don't know what this is going to do with the price per gallon over the next days/weeks/months, but I'm willing to bet it doesn't go down.
There's reports US citizens are among the hostages.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-citizens-hostages-israel-hamas-militants-gaza-antony-blinken-1832930
At this point, I'm about ready for WWIII to go hot and get it over with.
-Blast
Quote from: Blast on October 08, 2023, 12:02:12 PMThere's reports US citizens are among the hostages.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-citizens-hostages-israel-hamas-militants-gaza-antony-blinken-1832930
At this point, I'm about ready for WWIII to go hot and get it over with.
-Blast
I do not think the current US ptb are likely to do anything beyond giving billion$ for appearance sake.
Quote from: Raptor on October 08, 2023, 12:19:28 PMQuote from: Blast on October 08, 2023, 12:02:12 PMThere's reports US citizens are among the hostages.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-citizens-hostages-israel-hamas-militants-gaza-antony-blinken-1832930
At this point, I'm about ready for WWIII to go hot and get it over with.
-Blast
I do not think the current US ptb are likely to do anything beyond giving billion$ for appearance sake.
And by doing so, these jerkoffs are just going to keep getting bolder and bolder and figure "Well, the last time we did this, we got billions of dollars from the US. Let's take more hostages and see how much more money we can get from them this time."
Sounds like the US is sending carrier battle group Ford into the eastern med. Unfortunately, what's going on now will not be stopped by planes & bombs. Putting boots on the ground is going to get messy. No matter how professional and respectful of civilians those boots are, there will be plenty of video snips to stoke the fires.
Looking Hamas up (on Wikipedia) Egypt is listed as one of their State opponents. What if Israel let Egypt's military enter the west bank? That would change things up considerably.
QuoteWhat if Israel let Egypt's military enter the west bank?
If that happens I will video myself ballerina dancing in a teal tutu and post it here.
Quote from: Z.O.R.G. on October 08, 2023, 01:26:37 PMSounds like the US is sending carrier battle group Ford into the eastern med. Unfortunately, what's going on now will not be stopped by planes & bombs. Putting boots on the ground is going to get messy. No matter how professional and respectful of civilians those boots are, there will be plenty of video snips to stoke the fires.
A carrier battle group is basically worthless for house to house fighting. I suspect that the IDF has enough personnel to deal with this and the battle group is meant to intimidate the other region states. That and they have to be somewhere so if they are in area sending them to the coast of Israel is cheap and easy. They can also use their ELINT assets to feed intel to the IDF without anyone knowing about it.
Egypt (the state) is not likely to intervene but many Egyptians do not like israel.
This occurred earlier in 2023.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-israelis-hit-by-gunfire-in-incident-on-egyptian-border/
This occurred yesterday:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-gaza-rockets-attack-palestinians/card/policeman-shoots-dead-two-israelis-one-egyptian-at-tourist-site-in-alexandria-OAcOxCPxGQhy7nGcRY8v
I doubt Egypt or any gulf country would seriously consider coming to Israel's aid. As many have said, it appears the most likely objective Hamas has in this is to stop the peace process between Saudi & Israel. (Aside from killing some Israelis.) No matter how Israel persecutes a ground war, they will alienate portions of other gulf nations.
I'm pretty furious about this. For the first time in 50 years, Israel is at war. This attack is the worst they have experienced in decades.
On the one hand, you have an internationally recognized military that goes above and beyond and normal standards to prevent unnecessary bloodshed. The IDF sends you a text alert or air-dropped leaflet to make sure that you're clear of the danger before they conduct an operation in your neighborhood. After that they put a concrete dumb bomb through the roof. After that comes the actual weaponry.
On the other hand you have a mob that doesn't seem to care what kind of blood they shed, as long as some of it is Israeli. They'll fire rockets from the roof of a hospital or a playground into a neighborhood with no military value, without warning. Anyone tries to stop them, they torture or kill them. This time they're taking grandmothers hostage, and battering the civilian corpses of their enemies before loading them into pickup trucks and parading them around.
I can't imagine the frustration the residents of the Gaza strip must feel being used as human shields. I can't fathom how the rest of their neighbors seem to only value them as the same.
This whole situation should throw into pretty sharp relief which side values human life.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 08, 2023, 01:29:46 PMQuoteWhat if Israel let Egypt's military enter the west bank?
If that happens I will video myself ballerina dancing in a teal tutu and post it here.
I'll join you, except I'll be wearing a Doctor Zaius mask and a lime green tutu.
I think we'll sooner see Sasquatch, the Loch Ness monster and Baba Yaga marching to help Israel fight against Hamas before Egypt lifts a finger to help them.
Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 08, 2023, 04:56:59 PMQuote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 08, 2023, 01:29:46 PMQuoteWhat if Israel let Egypt's military enter the west bank?
If that happens I will video myself ballerina dancing in a teal tutu and post it here.
I'll join you, except I'll be wearing a Doctor Zaius mask and a lime green tutu.
I think we'll sooner see Sasquatch, the Loch Ness monster and Baba Yaga marching to help Israel fight against Hamas before Egypt lifts a finger to help them.
I was going to go with lime green but it is at the cleaners. Didn't want to not be able to deliver JIC it happened. How many hit points does Nessie have? That could be epic.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 08, 2023, 05:03:31 PMQuote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on October 08, 2023, 04:56:59 PMQuote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 08, 2023, 01:29:46 PMQuoteWhat if Israel let Egypt's military enter the west bank?
If that happens I will video myself ballerina dancing in a teal tutu and post it here.
I'll join you, except I'll be wearing a Doctor Zaius mask and a lime green tutu.
I think we'll sooner see Sasquatch, the Loch Ness monster and Baba Yaga marching to help Israel fight against Hamas before Egypt lifts a finger to help them.
I was going to go with lime green but it is at the cleaners. Didn't want to not be able to deliver JIC it happened. How many hit points does Nessie have? That could be epic.
No clue on the exact number, but I'm guessing it's a pretty high one.
Quote from: Z.O.R.G. on October 08, 2023, 03:17:02 PMI doubt Egypt or any gulf country would seriously consider coming to Israel's aid. As many have said, it appears the most likely objective Hamas has in this is to stop the peace process between Saudi & Israel. (Aside from killing some Israelis.) No matter how Israel persecutes a ground war, they will alienate portions of other gulf nations.
And that's it, in a nutshell, right there...Rather than do
anything to alleviate the suffering of their brethren in the Gaza Strip, Egypt will at best just seal the border and consider the job complete. Anwar Sadat was killed by his own people for acknowledging Israel's right to exist and signing a peace treaty with Israel, so I wouldn't count on anyone in the Egyptian government stepping in to quiet things down.
What I find the most maddening is this: The Arab states would rather have the Gaza Strip remain a failed state under the governance of a terrorist group than do anything to alleviate the suffering of the residents. They'd rather those residents be dead insurgents (or dead innocents, in some cases) so that Israel can remain a convenient enemy. There are times in history when I think a shared hatred of Israel is the only thing bonding those states together.
I'm trying as best as I can not to veer into politics. I also think that if there was a shred of political legitimacy remaining, (and there wasn't) that shred evaporated the second Hamas started shooting people at a peace festival.
Israel is a gun control state. they have only 7 guns per 100 people. Compare that to the USA who's 2nd amendment protects the citizens inalienable right to self defense and has 120 guns for every 100 people.
If you extrapolate the deaths in Israel due to this attack onto the population of USA that would be the equivalent of 24,000 US citizens killed.
You would think that a country located in the midst of hostile neighbors, would require its citizens to be armed in defense of self and country.
When seconds count, the military and police are minutes hours away.
ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 09, 2023, 03:45:28 PMIsrael is a gun control state. they have only 7 guns per 100 people. Compare that to the USA who's 2nd amendment protects the citizens inalienable right to self defense and has 120 guns for every 100 people.
If you extrapolate the deaths in Israel due to this attack onto the population of USA that would be the equivalent of 24,000 US citizens killed.
You would think that a country located in the midst of hostile neighbors, would require its citizens to be armed in defense of self and country.
When seconds count, the military and police are minutes hours away.
ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
I'm hearing chatter that the Israelis are reconsidering their stance on gun control and taking steps to make it a little easier for the average Israeli citizen to acquire a firearm for self defense.
The whole process is still nowhere near what it needs to be and is still stricter than it probably ought to be, though.
I'm also hearing rumors that Thailand is considering sending some of their special forces guys over to Israel to fight back against Hamas since a couple Thai citizens got killed in this attack. Same thing goes for Nepal and the Gurkhas.
If that's true, the last thing some Hamas terrorists might be hearing will be "Ayo Gorkhali".
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 09, 2023, 03:45:28 PMIsrael is a gun control state. they have only 7 guns per 100 people. Compare that to the USA who's 2nd amendment protects the citizens inalienable right to self defense and has 120 guns for every 100 people.
If you extrapolate the deaths in Israel due to this attack onto the population of USA that would be the equivalent of 24,000 US citizens killed.
You would think that a country located in the midst of hostile neighbors, would require its citizens to be armed in defense of self and country.
When seconds count, the military and police are minutes hours away.
ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
Man, that's some tragic math.
And the gun math is pretty interesting. I've seen so many pictures of reservists in civilian clothes with their M4s slung across their backs that I thought firearms would be a little more prevalent than 7 per 100 people.
At any rate, there will be more photos of those reservists. The IDF just activated 300,000 of them. This is an all-out war.
Vox has an interesting and brief explanation of how things went sideways so badly:
https://www.vox.com/2023/10/7/23907323/israel-war-hamas-attack-explained-southern-israel-gaza (https://www.vox.com/2023/10/7/23907323/israel-war-hamas-attack-explained-southern-israel-gaza)
I just checked the Jerusalem Post (https://www.jpost.com) and it came back with a "429 Too Many Requests" error. I wonder if it's down or a DoS attack is gonig on.
Quote from: Z.O.R.G. on October 09, 2023, 06:58:23 PMI just checked the Jerusalem Post (https://www.jpost.com) and it came back with a "429 Too Many Requests" error. I wonder if it's down or a DoS attack is gonig on.
DDOS attack, been going on all day.
https://www.dailydot.com/debug/jerusalem-post-ddos-israel-palestine-hacking/
QuoteIsrael is a gun control state. they have only 7 guns per 100 people. Compare that to the USA who's 2nd amendment protects the citizens inalienable right to self defense and has 120 guns for every 100 people.
etc...
I don't know about all that. In the US only about 2% of the population carries daily. Even if that many had been carrying pistols, Hamas was armed with assault rifles, organized and well trained. Anyone not under attack isn't going to stick their neck out to take on a gang of armed terrorists, which would be almost certain death. There are unicorns out there but doubtful it would have made any difference in the grander scheme.
Also, Something AQI used to do when they expected resistance was to equip their members with SVESTs. If you shot them, there was a good chance it would go off. If you shot them somewhere not fatal but they were still alive they would self detonate. This created tons more chaos and casualties.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 09, 2023, 09:03:45 PMQuoteIsrael is a gun control state. they have only 7 guns per 100 people. Compare that to the USA who's 2nd amendment protects the citizens inalienable right to self defense and has 120 guns for every 100 people.
etc...
I don't know about all that. In the US only about 2% of the population carries daily. Even if that many had been carrying pistols, Hamas was armed with assault rifles, organized and well trained. Anyone not under attack isn't going to stick their neck out to take on a gang of armed terrorists, which would be almost certain death. There are unicorns out there but doubtful it would have made any difference in the grander scheme.
Also, Something AQI used to do when they expected resistance was to equip their members with SVESTs. If you shot them, there was a good chance it would go off. If you shot them somewhere not fatal but they were still alive they would self detonate. This created tons more chaos and casualties.
Say you're one of those 2%, and this invasion news came over the wire. WWYD? You'd go home.
I've never seen a number, but there are a bunch of people with substantial trunk guns in my AO. But again, that'd be used to GBH. Where you could then gear up and head out if you wanted. Or protect your family.
In this case people were in their homes, it was a Saturday morning, and the terrorists were coming in and getting them. Home Defense gun, trunk gun. You don't need to carry, you just need to have a plan for off body.
Knowing everyone is mostly unarmed sets a certain tactic and confidence in the bad guys with guns. That's why gun free kill zones are so popular with mass murderers.
But thinking EVERYONE is armed, AND not knowing exactly who is and isn't, or how many guns you're up against, is a deterrent.
Put that SV in the middle of a group of terrorists and shoot it then. One shot, group gone. Wonder why they didn't do this on a weekday and target schools?
QuoteKnowing everyone is mostly unarmed sets a certain tactic and confidence in the bad guys with guns. That's why gun free kill zones are so popular with mass murderers.
But thinking EVERYONE is armed, AND not knowing exactly who is and isn't, or how many guns you're up against, is a deterrent.
Not really. I've spent a lot of time in the ME and it seems to me that you are conflating and/or equating American mass shooters with ME terrorists. Well armed and well organized terrorist groups can and will attack heavily armed and protected targets and do so all the time. I've seen it happen, hell I've been there when happened. It simply calls for a change of tactics. Security forces often are THE target. It's how ISIS spread so fast in the last decade.
American Mass shooters do target gun free zones such as schools so that they can kill as many people as possible before being killed, mostly motivated by self hatred. Terrorists see past the attack and if they can figure out a way to survive it they will. Their motivations and tactics are completely different.
Civilians are also the targets in this scenario. Back in the 70's IIRC terrorists attacked civilians in Israel on the streets with machine guns. So everyone started carrying. And then the terrorists were being killed as soon as they pulled out their guns. So they switched tactics to bombings.
I know you're not saying that because you only have one gun and they have 5, that you should just lay down and die. Defensive positions usually have the advantage. [not always] Which means it takes five to get 1.
I'm just saying that the operational risk that if every 1 civilian were able to end 2 terrorists, that would be another deterrent. And not knowing which houses were occupied by armed defenders may have deterred or delayed a house to house rampage. And that Israel is surrounded by enemies on their boarders and within. So why the gun control?
Scenario objective: kill and take hostage as many civilians as possible to wreak terror, in as short amount of time as possible. [excerpted from a terrorist's training workbook]
1. Freddie started to break into a house and someone started firing at him from the windows and doors. He should
A. move on to find a 'soft' target
B. try to get into that hard target just out of spite
2. Jason is driving his terrorist technical down the street and people are firing at him from the windows and rooftops. He should
A. find another street.
B. stop and engage.
3. Michael is tasked with going into a specific neighborhood to take hostages but sees a group of armed civilians patrolling the streets and rooftops. He should
A. continue into the neighborhood as ordered.
B. move on to the secondary target.
[answers: A, A, B]
MacWa77ace (https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?action=profile;u=40)
You clearly have not studied the attack at all. They weren't driving around in terrorist technicals. That is so 1993. Hamas attacked IDF forces first and seized a number of vehicles directly from their compound. They also had at least 20 vehicles disguised as IDF/ Police vehicles from the start. They abducted people by using their vehicles, or vehicles disguised as IDF and pretended to be IDF. They even set up phony checkpoints to keep responding forces out of the area. Most of those killed were indeed IDF.
Do you really think that armed civilians are going to attack armed IDF forces at a check point on the suspicion that they might be bogus? That if they appear to be arresting someone but are actually kidnapping them someone is going to jump into the middle of that? Do you really believe that the people that were taken hostage were randoms? That the targets had not already been researched and the best way to take them hadn't already been worked out?
None of your scenarios with the binary choices really apply or even make sense here. Certainly combat isn't binary.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bjqiytzza
Uh, huh. Obviously.
Civilian hostage being extracted from terrorist technical. That was driven into civilian neighborhood to take hostages. Where they entered houses of unarmed civilians and removed them.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivethenews.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F10%2F1696699423_Hamas-Terrorists-Reportedly-Begin-Taking-Hostages-of-Israeli-Soldiers-and.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=3b7ad462403151b90c2611f617bc4d6226be9c00d275230d6dce88605a9e369a&ipo=images)
I'm talking about this scenario that has been seen over and over again. i'm not talking about police force or IDF at all. I'm talking about civilians defending themselves and not relying on the government.
Also why would an Israeli civilian attack the IDF? I'm sure I didn't say or suggest that. :smiley_shrug:
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 11, 2023, 11:05:25 AMDo you really think that armed civilians are going to attack armed IDF forces at a check point on the suspicion that they might be bogus?
There's a reason why America hasn't been invaded since 1812. The reason is behind every blade of grass. Equating well armed and well organized terrorist groups attacking heavily armed and protected targets ,with for example what happened at the music festival or the beheading of infants are two completely separate objectives. I'm surprised there has not been a similar style attack on American soil by foreign terrorist forces. I believe it's only a matter of time considering the situation on the southern border. But to be sure ,when it does . It won't occur in one of the states that doesn't have strict gun control laws.
Uomo Senza Nome (https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?action=profile;u=207) & MacWa77ace (https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?action=profile;u=40)
From what I have seen They took a play book from several unconventional operations and criminal car jackers.
For instance the German use of US MP uniforms in 1944 to sow confusion. They attacked IDF bases and used IDF uniforms and PD uniforms taken there.
They stole vehicles (they have Israeli license plates) to capture hostages and drove to other targets in these uniforms to fool the initial responders. The music festival survivors reported this type of behavior.
They also attacked civilian soft targets to draw away first responders and sow terror.
There were not the stereo typical "technical" Toyota PU truck with a DsK mounted on it.
Instead they used motorcycles with 2 people on the bike for terror attacks and to steal cars/trucks and for quick point attacks.
There are a lot of dead IDF troopers but I am willing to bet the vast majority of Israeli dead are civilians due to terror attacks.
A lot of thought and planning went into this attack. It sounds like 2+ years of planning.
One thing I have noticed is the absolute lack of Ukraine War coverage in the MSM right now. Ukraine War live feeds are now about Israel and HAMAS. I bet Kyiv is very nervous right about now.
Israel's gun control regime is pretty restrictive. You have to have completed National Service. You have to have a compelling need, like living close to a hostile border or riding armored cars. You have to pass a very thorough background check and pass mental health screenings. You have to have a safe. If you are approved (40% were denied in 2018), you have to renew the license and jump through all the hoops every three years. If you don't renew your license you have to surrender your property to the police. And you can't keep more than 50 rounds on hand.
Here's the details of the "Looser" regime:
Quote"Any citizen who meets the detailed tests for carrying a private firearm due to self-defense and serving the security forces and is without a criminal or medical record will be required to undergo a telephone interview instead of a physical interview and will be able to receive permission to carry a firearm within a week," Ben-Gvir said. "(Self-defense tests: residence in an eligible settlement, rifle veterans 07 and above, officers in the rank of lieutenant and above and combatants in the rank of major and above in the IDF and the security forces, service in special units, firefighters, policemen, and workers and volunteers in the rescue forces)."
The second change allows anyone who had a permit to purchase a firearm in 2023 but didn't do so before the license expired to buy a gun without going through the process. He estimated that would apply to 4,000 citizens.
He said another 1,800 citizens would also be allowed to retrieve a gun they were forced to give up in the last six months because the owner didn't get "refresher training or renewal training."
He also raised the ammunition purchase limit for "conditional permits to carry firearms" from 50 to 100.
Source (https://thereload.com/israeli-loosens-gun-carry-rules-after-unprecedented-terror-attack/)
They made it a smidge easier and now let them keep a little over three loaded AR mags instead of less than two.
UFOs, aliens and Ukraine have disappeared from MSM.
Quote from: MacWa77ace on October 11, 2023, 11:27:51 AMUh, huh. Obviously.
Civilian hostage being extracted from terrorist technical. That was driven into civilian neighborhood to take hostages. Where they entered houses of unarmed civilians and removed them.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivethenews.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F10%2F1696699423_Hamas-Terrorists-Reportedly-Begin-Taking-Hostages-of-Israeli-Soldiers-and.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=3b7ad462403151b90c2611f617bc4d6226be9c00d275230d6dce88605a9e369a&ipo=images)
I'm talking about this scenario that has been seen over and over again. i'm not talking about police force or IDF at all. I'm talking about civilians defending themselves and not relying on the government.
Also why would an Israeli civilian attack the IDF? I'm sure I didn't say or suggest that. :smiley_shrug:
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 11, 2023, 11:05:25 AMDo you really think that armed civilians are going to attack armed IDF forces at a check point on the suspicion that they might be bogus?
That IS an IDF vehicle. It was reported stolen weeks ago.
QuoteOne thing I have noticed is the absolute lack of Ukraine War coverage in the MSM right now. Ukraine War live feeds are now about Israel and HAMAS. I bet Kyiv is very nervous right about now.
They are absolutely still there, just not at the top of the feed.
I am having a hard time expressing my thoughts right now, and I am going to try so damn hard not to stray into our forbidden topics (politics and religion) while I write this, so excuse me if it sounds a bit disjointed.
My observations :
The majority of folks are unaware that WW3 has begun. Not with the Hamas attack, but it has low key been going on for a few years now. Smouldering. Hamas just fanned that spark into flame.
Israel is surrounded. It has ALWAYS been surrounded by those who wish it to be eradicated. Reports have already started of mild *probing* attacks happening at its' other borders.
Women and children flee from wars. Young men head into battle. The majority of refugees from the ME heading into Europe, the UK and even the US are not women and children. They are men of fighting age.
Supporters of Israel are being targeted in the UK (read several articles yesterday about it it) Pro Hamas gatherings have been held in just about every country that has accepted large numbers of those "refugees". There will be incidents Friday 13th. I think it will get bad. Very bad.
If it comes down to it, I think Israel is going to feel that they have no other option to protect their people and nation than to go with the "glass parking lot" solution. I think fingers are slowly yet dangerously getting closer to some very scary buttons.
I live in a heavily armed rural area. I feel safe. I worry a great deal about family and friends that live in cities and areas that the populace is prevented from being armed. I also live in an area that believes in prepping, long term food storage and everything that goes with it. Again, I feel safe and prepared. I am personally not armed, haven't had the money to get a new firearm after having to sell mine a few years ago, HOWEVER I could access a firearm within 10 to 30 minutes. Hell, if shit starts going down, I am pretty sure the PD and local gun store would try to arm as many citizens as possible as fast as possible. I also have open invites to hunker down at differents friends farms, if it comes to that.
I think it was Einstein that said he didn't know what weapons would be used in WW3, but he was pretty sure WW4 would be fought with sticks and stones. I live in The Great North Woods in The Granite State. Sticks and stones are plentiful here.
Again, I believe WW3 has begun. MSM isn't saying it, the politicians aren't saying it, almost no one is saying it. A few people on various platforms like youtube are opining that it has, but most are being quiet about it.
Look at the history of WW2. What year did it start? What event?
It didn't just erupt out of nowhere, full-fledged and screaming. It began long before the first bomber flew over England or the first ship was sunk at Pearl Harbor.
I don't know what can be done to stop this monstrosity from barreling down this path. It scares the crap out of me to see this happening.
The basic inhuman acts that have been committed make me think Israel may be correct if they opt for the "glass parking lot" solution. Can the peoples that have beliefs that allow and even encourage them to commit such horrors ever be accepted as members of the human race? Horrific acts were committed in the name of the German people during WW2. Not ALL Germans were guilty of those acts. But yet, I have so much anger at the generalized people of that ME region. They protected Hamas (and Hezbollah), they supported them. To me, it feels like they ALL conspired with them to commit the atrocities. In anger, I think we all paint with a broad brush.
Solutions? I have none.
Anger and disgust and contempt...I have plenty.
I have noticed here in Lambytown that more of the folks are carrying since the Hamas attacks. Not out of fear, but out of awareness. Awareness of dark possibilities, awareness of the putrid evil that lurks beneath the skin of some people.
My suggestions for those of you living in more urban areas:
Stay away, far away from crowds, festivals, street fairs, concerts, etc.
Carry if you are able in your AO. Open or concealed.
On the 13th especially, stay away from synagogues. If that is your faith, it is sad to say, I fear some will be targeted. Also, if that is your faith, it may be wise to not wear your kippah out in public.
Make sure you have your preps topped off as much as you can.
That's about all I can say without getting into a forbidden discussion on religion, international politics, domestic politics, multiculturalism, diversity, and thinly veiled threats against a population.
I'm just angry and tired.
QuoteSolutions? I have none.
Anger and disgust and contempt...I have plenty.
And pity. My faith demands that I not desire the things my neighbor has. Yet, practically every war ever fought was because someone wanted something that somebody else had or wanted someone to do something that they didn't want to do.
I have yet to lose faith, because I don't want to. People mostly suck, but they often do the right thing, even if they are made to.
Quote"With this faith we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope."
Houthi in Yemen says they will now throw in with the Hamas. I guess they will all march into the flames hand in hand.
QuoteLambykins: I believe WW3 has begun.
I am old; old enough to remember the US involvement in Vietnam in the early 1960's and being told by a Korean War Vet basically the same thing about WW-3 having begun.
I can understand your conclusion in this matter and honestly only time will tell if that is the case. The historical similarities to the Japanese incursion into China in the 1930's is similar in some aspects to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 12, 2023, 02:21:21 PMQuoteSolutions? I have none.Anger and disgust and contempt...I have plenty.
And pity.
The acts of Hamas are absolutely barbaric. There is no way acts of terror against civilians can be justified. Feelings of disgust and contempt are reasonable, rational and IMO wide spread except for a few people in the US using for political or personal attention. I will say no more about those people.
I too have a feeling of pity for all of the innocents caught up in this. IMO the military response to this barbaric act by Hamas is quite justifiable. I cannot imagine any solution that does not require the perpetrators to be captured or killed in the process of capture.
Still it means that innocents will suffer as a result. That is not a good outcome.
A solution is possible only when the parties in a situation want to arrive at a solution. In this case hamas' desire is the total liquidation of Israel. In this case the goals are irreconcilable.
That brings up the other emotion I feel in addition to those above...resignation... to the fact that this will be a nasty and ugly next few months. Trite quips come to mind like haters gonna hate but that simply belittles the ugliness of this situation (& Russia/Ukraine).
I will suggest that we all stay vigilant and exercise reasonable prudence because IMO another shoe is going to drop, possibly in the US.
The Samburu of East Africa have a saying:
When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.
QuoteEx-soldier fought off Hamas and saved kibbutz neighbours
BBC News
One of the first Israeli settlements to come under attack when Hamas militants surged into Israel early on Saturday morning was the Nir Am kibbutz, where local people put up a fierce defence and drove the attackers away.
"I took my pistol, my clothes, my bulletproof vest and the other thing was cigarettes," Adam says, calmly recounting being jolted from his bed by the sound of gunfire at 06:30 on Saturday. "We started to kill everyone who came to the fence."
He's been labelled the hero of Nir Am, the saviour of his kibbutz, a community of around 400 people living just 2km (1.2 miles) from Gaza.
"I took the walkie-talkie and I said this line again and again: 'No-one will enter Nir Am, no-one will enter Nir Am.'"
Adam is 46, ex-special-forces, so we can't show his face or use his full name. His head is shaved, a boxer, not the biggest man but you wouldn't mess with him. It's clear he can handle himself.
He was joined by other men from the kibbutz, he says.
"Civilians who don't know how to fight but have got a lot of heart. Two or three with special forces experience but the others... just regular men, they work in IT. Regular men, but very, very special."
Together they fought for between three and five hours - Adam isn't exactly sure. Then came a lull... More at Source Link
Source (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67089113)
There was a story about another person a 26 year old women who also was at a similar kibbutz and was credited with leading a group of residents who killed 40 terrorists over several hours during repeated assaults.
It goes to show what people with the proper tools Can do.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/9300866/israel-palestine-hamas-woman-hero-kibbutz-villag
QuoteIt goes to show what people with the proper tools Can do.
Defensible position, properly prepared and trained and equipped. I wouldn't live within a mile of the Gaza Strip, but if I had to, it would be like that.
Apparently Israel has given Gaza residents 24 hours to evacuate. Notified the UN and NATO and all that.
Quote from: Lambykins on October 13, 2023, 08:43:15 AMApparently Israel has given Gaza residents 24 hours to evacuate. Notified the UN and NATO and all that.
Apparently a prelude to an Israeli incursion into northern Gaza. We're talking about over a million people being told to relocate to the southern portion of the strip with only 24 hours notice. With no fuel for transport or even electricity to power lights, let alone traffic controls. A recipe for utter chaos.
No judgment about why Israel is doing what it's doing in response to Hamas' horrific, inhuman butchery. Just pointing out the that the evacuation order is utterly, completely unrealistic.
Quote from: majorhavoc on October 13, 2023, 09:07:37 AMQuote from: Lambykins on October 13, 2023, 08:43:15 AMApparently Israel has given Gaza residents 24 hours to evacuate. Notified the UN and NATO and all that.
Apparently a prelude to an Israeli incursion into northern Gaza. We're talking about over a million people being told to relocate to the southern portion of the strip with only 24 hours notice. With no fuel for transport or even electricity to power lights, let alone traffic controls. A recipe for utter chaos.
No judgment about why Israel is doing what it's doing in response to Hamas' horrific, inhuman butchery. Just pointing out the that the evacuation order is utterly, completely unrealistic.
Hamas has a history and reputation for putting women and children first....as targets. I have no doubt they will refuse to allow anyone to leave.
Quote from: Lambykins on October 13, 2023, 10:43:04 AMQuote from: majorhavoc on October 13, 2023, 09:07:37 AMQuote from: Lambykins on October 13, 2023, 08:43:15 AMApparently Israel has given Gaza residents 24 hours to evacuate. Notified the UN and NATO and all that.
Apparently a prelude to an Israeli incursion into northern Gaza. We're talking about over a million people being told to relocate to the southern portion of the strip with only 24 hours notice. With no fuel for transport or even electricity to power lights, let alone traffic controls. A recipe for utter chaos.
No judgment about why Israel is doing what it's doing in response to Hamas' horrific, inhuman butchery. Just pointing out the that the evacuation order is utterly, completely unrealistic.
Hamas has a history and reputation for putting women and children first....as targets. I have no doubt they will refuse to allow anyone to leave.
Agree 100%.
They're telling citizens of Gaza not to give in to Israel's "psychological warfare" and to stay put. Hamas is fully expecting Israel to launch a large scale ground operation and they just love the optics of their own citizens being caught in crossfire of a heavy-handed Israeli response. As the de facto governing entity in Gaza, Hamas should be doing everything in its power to move innocent Palestinians out of harm's way. That's what any sane, compassionate government would do.
Hamas doesn't give a rat's ass about their own people. If their citizens can't or won't fight the Israelis directly, they can at least die and make the Zionists look bad in the process. Hamas sees their population as nothing more than convenient PR cannon fodder.
Had a long discussion with a friend about Hamas, the Palestinian populace, etc today.
Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, every ME country says "We stand with our Palestinian brothers and sisters!" but will not take in even one Palestinian refugee.
Why not? What's going on here?
It seems that many of these oil rich countries could take in a small percentage of the Palestinians without suffering economically. Yet, they refuse time after time to do that.
Historically, I know the original plan was to have Israel AND an official Palestine as separate autonomous nations but this was stopped by the other middle east countries. Not Israel. The other countries that "stand with their Palestinian brothers and sisters" did not want them to have their own country.
I will never understand the middle east.
QuoteJust pointing out the that the evacuation order is utterly, completely unrealistic.
The Gaza is small. No matter where you are you could walk out in less than 3 hours. Of course you would have to leave everything behind.
QuoteHezbollah, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, every ME country says "We stand with our Palestinian brothers and sisters!" but will not take in even one Palestinian refugee.
Why not? What's going on here?
It seems that many of these oil rich countries could take in a small percentage of the Palestinians without suffering economically. Yet, they refuse time after time to do that.
It was done in 1967. There are about 5 million Palestinians living in other Arab nations including about half of them in Jordan. The problems are:
- They never left, many are actually descendants
- They don't become citizens or work, just more mouths to feed
- They do become terrorists and blow things up in the new country
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 13, 2023, 01:27:57 PMQuoteJust pointing out the that the evacuation order is utterly, completely unrealistic.
The Gaza is small. No matter where you are you could walk out in less than 3 hours. Of course you would have to leave everything behind.
That assumes that everyone is capable of walking for 3 hours - men, women, children, the elderly, infirm, etc. And as you say, leaving everything behind, including food, water, shelter, etc, etc.
I continue to submit that 1.1 million people within 24 hours even reaching the city limits of an incredibly dense urban area, let alone somewhere safe, is utterly impossible.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 13, 2023, 01:27:57 PMQuoteJust pointing out the that the evacuation order is utterly, completely unrealistic.
The Gaza is small. No matter where you are you could walk out in less than 3 hours. Of course you would have to leave everything behind.
Gaza is only 25 miles long so yes it is small. I am not sure I could walk 25 miles in 3 hour but the evacuation area called for by Israel is not 25 miles away. I was be able to walk 10 miles in 3 hours about a month ago. That said that walk was in the open country side.
On the other hand it has taken me 30 minutes to leave a stadium and get to my car ~1/4 mile away. The difference is that I was making that walk with ~ 30,000 other people. This is closer to the speed over ground that an evacuation can take. Also everyone was in a good mood and happy. There were no pissed off, distraught people, just drunks slowing down the process.
Evacuations from NOLA typically proceed at 5 miles per hour. 60 miles takes 12 to 18 hours.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 13, 2023, 01:34:36 PMQuoteHezbollah, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, every ME country says "We stand with our Palestinian brothers and sisters!" but will not take in even one Palestinian refugee.
Why not? What's going on here?
It seems that many of these oil rich countries could take in a small percentage of the Palestinians without suffering economically. Yet, they refuse time after time to do that.
It was done in 1967. There are about 5 million Palestinians living in other Arab nations including about half of them in Jordan. The problems are:
- They never left, many are actually descendants
- They don't become citizens or work, just more mouths to feed
- They do become terrorists and blow things up in the new country
In addition to the above...
QuoteHamas has a history and reputation for putting women and children first....as targets.
They reap what they sow.
You can click on a couple of links to get to the photograph.
I did not.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-shouldn-t-had-prove-165103707.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-shouldn-t-had-prove-165103707.html)
Quote from: Lambykins on October 13, 2023, 03:10:52 PMYou can click on a couple of links to get to the photograph.
I did not.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-shouldn-t-had-prove-165103707.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-shouldn-t-had-prove-165103707.html)
I did click on it and really do not suggest you do so.
Note you do have to click 3 times. It is NWS and disturbing.
BTW please do not post gory and NWS photos here unless they are posted like this with an explicit warning and the need to click through to the photo.
Many were saying "Where is the proof?" of the atrocities.
There it is.
I did not click through to see it. Just reading of the brutalities inflicted by Hamas made me ill.
I have no need to confirm what eyewitnesses already have stated in many, many interviews.
QuoteThey reap what they sow.
They created their own tragedy in Black September (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_September) in 1970. They had a real shot at a homeland and then turned on their Jordanian hosts and tried to overthrow the government and assassinate the king. After they were kicked out of society in Jordan they went to Lebanon and created a civil war that took 100K lives and created a humanitarian crisis that endures to this day.
Nobody wants them because they bring violence wherever they go. The Arabs are happy to let them kill as many Jews as they like but they certainly don't want to live with them.
A good summary of thier past issues and history
Do not forget the massive corruption of Yaser Arafat. When he died 20+ years ago he had amassed a net worth of about $1.5 billion( back when $1billion was a lot of money).
All derived at the expense of the Palestinians. Either skimmed from aid or grants or other similar dealings.
https://www.theblaze.com/news/american-killed-israel-hamas-palestinian-supporter
There are several stories about people in similar circumstances.
I guess the we will soon be inundated with information about the fighting in Gaza.
Hamas is actively blocking people from fleeing from the combat zone.
When Hamas unleashed its attack on thousands of Jews attending a music festival in southern Israel earlier this month, an Israeli Arab paramedic insisted on staying at the scene to try to save lives.
In the end, he gave his own.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-arab-paramedic-killed-c16a667db45db2ee62bcd993a24d6ee5
Quote from: flybynight on October 15, 2023, 04:49:27 PMWhen Hamas unleashed its attack on thousands of Jews attending a music festival in southern Israel earlier this month, an Israeli Arab paramedic insisted on staying at the scene to try to save lives.
In the end, he gave his own.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-arab-paramedic-killed-c16a667db45db2ee62bcd993a24d6ee5
QuoteHe felt that, as an Arab, he could somehow mediate with the attackers.
Yeah, no, heart is in the right place but he would be near the top pf the target list.
In Chicago a nutter killed a 6YO and stabbed his mother because they were Palestinian. Attacks on Jews are at their highest level since the 1970s.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/15/slaying-muslim-child-illinois-war-00121649
That mug shot is the scariest thing I hope to see this Halloween season. A six-year old child, for God's sake. That was that sociopath's own tenant, and yet was somehow personally responsible for what's happening a half a world away.
I've said it before - I'm getting this sense that on some fundamental level, society is unravelling.
Quote from: majorhavoc on October 16, 2023, 10:28:41 AMThat mug shot is the scariest thing I hope to see this Halloween season. A six-year old child, for God's sake. That was that sociopath's own tenant, and yet was somehow personally responsible for what's happening a half a world away.
I've said it before - I'm getting this sense that on some fundamental level, society is unravelling.
I cannot add anything to your conclusion about the scumbag in question...or to your last statement about society.
There is a lot of truly deranged and horrific acts lately.
What I do suggest that we all keep our heads on a swivel and be prepared to take care our families & friends. Preparation and prayers are never wasted.
Focus on the tasks and goals...not the storm.
QuoteI've said it before - I'm getting this sense that on some fundamental level, society is unravelling.
If that were true at least there would be at least something to blame it on. Hate crime is as old as old is old.
The BBC is reporting that an IDF Air strike (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67119233?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=652ec83a364b3f1612ec5441%26About%20500%20killed%20in%20hospital%20airstrike%2C%20say%20Palestinian)has hit a hospital where thousands of Palestinians were sheltering, at least 500 people are thought to have died.
What gets me most about the Israeli/Palestine conflict is that ordinary people just the same as us going about their everyday lives suffer.
The world feels like it's destabilised a little.
Quote"No refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt," King Abdullah said in Berlin Tuesday, pushing back against pressure from the international community to accept the Palestinian refugees, (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-gop-members-introduce-bill-block-palestinian-refugees-entering-us) according to Reuters.
He added: "That is a red line, because I think that is the plan by certain of the usual suspects to try and create de facto issues on the ground."
No surprise here.
QuoteIsrael's top national security adviser predicted that the U.S. would get involved in Israel's war on Hamas if the conflict escalated to include other regional powers like Hezbollah or Iran.
The official, Tzachi Hanegbi, cited the U.S. movement of two air craft carrier strike groups into the Eastern Mediterranean as a key indicator. Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (https://www.foxnews.com/world/defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-us-people-on-ground-help-israel-hostage-rescues) has emphasized that there are no U.S. boots on the ground and no plans to deploy them.
"[Biden] is making clear to our enemies that if they even imagine taking part in the offensive against the citizens of Israel, there will be American involvement here," Hanegbi said.
President Biden has nevertheless warned Hezbollah and Iran to stay out of the conflict, (https://www.foxnews.com/category/world/conflicts) but he has not made specific threats of what the U.S. will do if they do join the war.
US direct action would be a first.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 17, 2023, 02:16:24 PMPresident Biden has nevertheless warned Hezbollah and Iran to stay out of the conflict, (https://www.foxnews.com/category/world/conflicts) but he has not made specific threats of what the U.S. will do if they do join the war.
I think the direct quote was ||
"be careful... be careful..." ||
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-tells-iran-be-careful-after-hamas-attacks-israel/ar-AA1i45JD
Quote from: wee drop o bush on October 17, 2023, 01:02:13 PMThe BBC is reporting that an IDF Air strike (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67119233?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=652ec83a364b3f1612ec5441%26About%20500%20killed%20in%20hospital%20airstrike%2C%20say%20Palestinian)has hit a hospital where thousands of Palestinians were sheltering, at least 500 people are thought to have died.
What gets me most about the Israeli/Palestine conflict is that ordinary people just the same as us going about their everyday lives suffer.
The world feels like it's destabilised a little.
I have not seen the 500 people quoted for that strike.
That said the IDF said they hit 750 "targets" so the casualty a count of 500 is not out the question.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip/card/israeli-jets-hit-750-military-targets-in-gaza-overnight-QjkF2cFx5HWx6IArSX7z
...and yes it is a bit surreal.
EDITED TO ADD:
A link to an AP article quoting:
QuoteThe health ministry said at least 500 people had been killed. Photos and video purportedly from al-Ahli Hospital on social media showed fire engulfing the building and the hospital's grounds strewn with torn bodies, many of them young children. Around them in the grass were blankets, school backpacks and other belongings. The images could not immediately be independently verified.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-war-biden-rafah-e062825a375d9eb62e95509cab95b80c
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 17, 2023, 02:16:24 PMUS direct action would be a first.
A first and a very, very bad move for the US. The IDF does not need the help. This is not the Yom Kippur War. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War)
By taking sides like that we would forever lose the little (really minute) influence we have in events in the Middle East.
People need to grow a spine. This is war. It's not pretty, there's no glory. Non combatants will get killed.
The bombing of Dresden was a joint British and American aerial bombing attack on the city of Dresden, the capital of the German state of Saxony, during World War II. In four raids between 13 and 15 February 1945, 772 heavy bombers of the Royal Air Force (RAF) and 527 of the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) dropped more than 3,900 tons of high-explosive bombs and incendiary devices on the city.[2] The bombing and the resulting firestorm destroyed more than 1,600 acres (6.5 km2) of the city centre.[3] Up to 25,000 people were killed.[1][a]
On the night of 9/10 March 1945, the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) conducted a devastating firebombing raid on Tokyo, the Japanese capital city. This attack was code-named Operation Meetinghouse by the USAAF and is known as the Great Tokyo Air Raid in Japan.[1] Bombs dropped from 279 Boeing B-29 Superfortress heavy bombers burned out much of eastern Tokyo. More than 90,000 and possibly over 100,000 Japanese people were killed, mostly civilians.
I don't want to see children and other non combatants killed anymore than anybody else . But the IDF is not targeting them. Unlike what hamas did. There comes a point, the kid gloves come off.
A pretty commonly quoted figure over the past week (and past few years) is that anywhere from 25% to 30% of the rockets fired at Israel are falling short, often landing within the Gaza Strip.
This, apparently, may have been one of the hundreds of them:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-confirms-gaza-hospital-blast-caused-by-islamic-jihad-rocket-misfire/ (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-confirms-gaza-hospital-blast-caused-by-islamic-jihad-rocket-misfire/)
I guess that's what happens when you make rockets out of irrigation pipes and fire them randomly towards civilians...from behind dense concentrations of your own civilians.
I know how callous I must sound, but if 30 percent of the time you get into a bar fight you knock out one of your own friends, you're probably not going to get invited out much.
I'm reserving judgment about who's to blame for the hospital explosion in Gaza. I've also read about it being an errant Hamas rocket, but I could see it just as easily being a targeting mistake by the Israelis. We may never get a definitive answer, but I keep coming back to what Flybynight said: in war, innocents will die. Make no mistake, this is a full-scale war.
The Palestinian death count is IMO part of Hamas' plan. The civilian deaths sully the IDF and makes Hamas look like the victim.
It is a cold and brutal calculation on their part.
Quote from: Raptor on October 17, 2023, 08:11:04 PMThe Palestinian death count is IMO part of Hamas' plan. The civilian deaths sully the IDF and makes Hamas look like the victim.
It is a cold and brutal calculation on their part.
Agreed. That death count is an unfortunate advantage Hamas knows they have.
This is an all-out war, with a strong emphasis on counterinsurgency.
The triangle counterinsurgency theory states that as a counterinsurgent, you can prioritize any two of the three options.
But you can't prioritize all three.
1.) Protect your own forces
2.) Kill insurgents
3.) Protect innocents in the local population
The insurgent doesn't have to choose between these three options. A successful insurgent relies support of the populace, but if he can blame collateral damage on the counterinsurgent, all the better for him.
Quote from: Raptor on October 17, 2023, 08:11:04 PMThe Palestinian death count is IMO part of Hamas' plan. The civilian deaths sully the IDF and makes Hamas look like the victim.
It is a cold and brutal calculation on their part.
IMHO having and maintaining the moral high ground in a conflict is an advantage, when you lose that you lose ground.
Israel has said they will permit humanitarian aid Through Egypt. That said Egypt said that they will not permit refugees. Not sure how that will work...I suspect rather badly is the answer.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/17/israel-hamas-war-live-anger-after-israeli-strike-kills-500-in-hospital
QuoteEgypt is the only country that borders Gaza besides Israel, but Sisi said (https://www.reuters.com/world/egypt-rejects-any-displacement-palestinians-into-sinai-says-sisi-2023-10-18/) no Palestinians will be allowed through the heavily fortified and locked-down border crossing. He claimed his own population would angrily protest against moving Palestinians into Egyptian Sinai.
"If it came to it, I could call on the Egyptian people to come out and express their rejection of this proposal, and you would see millions of Egyptians," he threatened (https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/levant-turkey/1697626996-egyptian-president-warns-evacuating-gazans-would-drag-egypt-into-war).
Sisi also feared a heavy Palestinian presence could turn Sinai into a base for terrorist attacks against Israel, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement for other nations to accept Palestinian refugees.
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2023/10/18/sisi-instead-of-letting-palestinian-refugees-into-egypt-lets-park-them-in-the-desert/
There are obviously two versions of the hospital strike being pushed for political reasons. I honestly doubt at this point anyone knows the whole truth.
3rd party sources have been provided with data that shows the explosion was a defective rocket launched not by Hamas but rather a smaller and "more radical" (not sure what that term means). That said at this point I suspect the truth is irrelevant to the supporters of each side.
QuoteVideo, radar, maps, media coverage of the impact cite, and an intercepted call between two Hamas operatives all suggest that a Palestinian group's rocket, launched near the hospital, misfired and hit the parking lot, causing a fire and apparent casualties.
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2023/10/18/evidence-palestinian-terrorists-not-israel-hit-hospital-in-gaza/
The data presented above does seem in line with the known capabilities of Israel. This type of data would be available to commonly deployed counter battery artillery radars and the Israeli Iron Dome systems.
That said I am in no position to opine either way and do not opine upon the substance of either claim.
What is clear is that this matter has resulting in an escalation of violence in various cities directed at Israel and Jews in general. The political rhetoric is being used even in the US for personal agendas.
https://news.yahoo.com/protesters-mideast-vent-fury-gaza-144643821.html
Quote from: majorhavoc on October 17, 2023, 07:28:49 PMI'm reserving judgment about who's to blame for the hospital explosion in Gaza. I've also read about it being an errant Hamas rocket, but I could see it just as easily being a targeting mistake by the Israelis. We may never get a definitive answer, but I keep coming back to what Flybynight said: in war, innocents will die. Make no mistake, this is a full-scale war.
It appears to be a Hamas rocket. Nobody in the Arab world gives a shit. They all say Israel is lying and they need to die.
QuoteThe White House has been forced to delete a photo of President Joe Biden meeting U.S. special forces in Israel - which showed their faces and could have revealed their identities.
It was already known that a small group of U.S. special forces are in Israel advising on how to potentially rescue scores of hostages, including Americans, held by terror group Hamas in Gaza.
Their actual role their is a matter of speculation but outing them was a particularly bad blunder.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12651089/White-House-apologizes-publishing-photo-showing-faces-Special-Forces-met-Biden-Israel-glaring-national-security-blunder.html
A US AB Destroyer intercepted missiles bound for Israel. The US Navy will likely be targeted next.
US Navy destroyer shoots down missiles potentially headed toward Israel: Pentagon (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-navy-destroyer-shoots-down-missiles-potentially-headed-toward-israel-pentagon/ar-AA1iwoRZ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=0f1f72f661d34505bf5db4b6e3012832&ei=23)
Two very different takes on the potential for this conflict to expand into a regional, if not world war. The Warographics piece is twice as long, but does cite sources and has a very different take on the stakes for Syria and Iran.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OagYlYna75Y (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OagYlYna75Y)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sukrBL2C8yo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sukrBL2C8yo)
Peter Zeihan does zero in on a detail that I've been paying attention to: everyone's talking about the deployment of the carriers USS Gerald R. Ford and Dwight D. Eisenhower to the region as a deterrent to other potentially nations. Much less is being said about the presence of the USS Bataan, Mesa Verde and Carter Hall in the eastern Mediterranean. Together they provide a platform to support Marine Expeditionary and Special Forces operations. They are likely on station in case a decision is made to attempt to extract hostages being held in Gaza. To undertake such an operation would make Mogadishu look like a walk in the park.
Cracks are appearing in the US supply lines.
Bad news for Ukraine - USA in shocking turn around (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bad-news-for-ukraine-usa-in-shocking-turn-around/ar-AA1ixMgQ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=2beb9728862446bf9d7ba9ba95827bb8&ei=9)
Israel has been reported deploying it's (asserted yet unproven, Nuclear ICBM capable) submarines of which it has nine. The subs can fill other roles but the speculation is that they would be a response strike weapon to a nuclear strike from Iran or some other nation state.
Israel is deploying submarines. Something big is about to happen (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-is-deploying-submarines-something-big-is-about-to-happen/ar-AA1iABwC?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=9ecd0e1824494863af912026378315c3&ei=6)
The front with Lebanon is now considered active and cities on the border are being evacuated. The concern now is a third front on the West Bank opening up heavily supported by regional players.
Topic moved to Disasters in Current Events.
https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?topic=1768.0 (https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?topic=1768.0)
Internet has been severed to Gaza. As if things weren't bad enough now they can't watch cat videos, donkey porn and post lies and propaganda to the world. The IDF has bombed all of the major nodes that connected out.
Oil has run up to $90 a barrel and the Federal government has depleted the SPR. Iran is calling for an oil embargo against Israel. If regional powers agree the US will end up sipping tankers of fuel to the Middle East, which makes no sense.
I'm not going to dive into the politics of it but a Detroit Synagogue leader was stabbed to death on Saturday. Lots of finger pointing and politics at the link.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/rashida-tlaib-under-fire-after-detroit-synagogue-leader-s-slaying/ar-AA1iDc39?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=ac6f25284559459bb7250c4d55ee91c8&ei=52
With everything going on the thought of the US sending tankers of fuel to Israel actually does not seem unreasonable.
US now has BOG in the "eastern Mediterranean at an undisclosed location". A THAAD Radar and Missile System was deployed there along with the USS Eisenhower in the region bringing total Carriers to two. The US has seven THAAD systems. One is currently deployed in Poland and two are always up in the US (Hawaii and somewhere else).
Also deployed was an additional PATRIOT Battalion. Not sure if it is going to AL Asad to join the other battalion and Avenger Units there or somewhere else. Al Asad is getting pounded by rockets on the regular now.
US Deploys THAAD System, Strike Group Amid 'Recent Escalations' by Iran (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-deploys-thaad-system-strike-group-amid-recent-escalations-by-iran/ar-AA1iEdPB?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=83444b62e817481cac2557bc6388bff6&ei=47)
Wow, busy day in associated politics. Obviously not going to post any of that here.
Part of the associated attacks are near continuous attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria from militia backed by Iran.
It appears as though the Gaza clearing operations were delayed another day or so to give Hamas more time to prepare.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 24, 2023, 08:58:36 PMIt appears as though the Gaza clearing operations were delayed another day or so to give Hamas more time to pprepare.
IMO the extra time due to the delay will not make much difference. Hamas has shown that this attack was not amateur hour. They clearly put 2+ years of planning into this attack and the inevitable (desired?) massive IDF retaliation. They will likely have additional creative unpleasantness in store for the IDF regardless of timing.
The IDF response will be massive and a PR nightmare for Israel.
That said I certainly have no sympathy for Hamas...let the chips fall where they may.
Quote from: Raptor on October 25, 2023, 08:55:59 AMQuote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 24, 2023, 08:58:36 PMIt appears as though the Gaza clearing operations were delayed another day or so to give Hamas more time to pprepare.
IMO the extra time due to the delay will not make much difference. Hamas has shown that this attack was not amateur hour. They clearly put 2+ years of planning into this attack and the inevitable (desired?) massive IDF retaliation.
The IDF response will be massive and a PR nightmare for Israel.
That said I certainly have no sympathy for Hamas...let the chips fall where they may.
My comment was somewhat sarcastic. This attack was intended to provoke the response that they are getting. However; this might be a case of Israel ripping the band-aid off for good. I believe their intention is to go in and kill and destroy everything that looks like a threat. They will likely go even further than that.
Hamas is planning on the world coming to save them. That second part I am not so sure about. Israel tried the peace process and it was sabotaged. Once they get fully spun up most of the neighbors are not going to want to poke that bear. That is why the politics at play here are fascinating. Everyone is kind of getting laid bare.
Listening to the radio this morning, a Pentagon official suggested Israel may be hastily giving its reservists remedial training on urban combat, and that may at least partially explain the delay in starting the invasion.
Quote from: majorhavoc on October 25, 2023, 09:14:05 AMListening to the radio this morning, a Pentagon official suggested Israel may be hastily giving its reservists remedial training on urban combat, and that may at least partially explain the delay in starting the invasion.
Urban combat is the hardest and it is impossible to be good at it.
Yeah, I like the farther away tactics in urban warfare.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia3.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FzK5EHMbtwfW1O%2F200.gif%3Fcid%3D790b7611m5vg1bce1edr2qjf12ha2ez8spkofl7xx0lnmaja%26rid%3D200.gif%26ct%3Dg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=2a7a12b8b4431b669053437b1ca4d14f75b097f9b16ceecdfde7cfb7aa23d1a5&ipo=images)
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 25, 2023, 09:40:10 AMQuote from: majorhavoc on October 25, 2023, 09:14:05 AMListening to the radio this morning, a Pentagon official suggested Israel may be hastily giving its reservists remedial training on urban combat, and that may at least partially explain the delay in starting the invasion.
Urban combat is the hardest and it is impossible to be good at it.
If there is one thing history has taught us; urban warfare is the great equalizer between disparate forces in combat. Small and determined units (especially those who are willing to be suicide squads) can turn a Division into a Battalion in no time if allowed to do so.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 25, 2023, 09:05:30 AMQuote from: Raptor on October 25, 2023, 08:55:59 AMQuote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 24, 2023, 08:58:36 PMIt appears as though the Gaza clearing operations were delayed another day or so to give Hamas more time to pprepare.
IMO the extra time due to the delay will not make much difference. Hamas has shown that this attack was not amateur hour. They clearly put 2+ years of planning into this attack and the inevitable (desired?) massive IDF retaliation.
The IDF response will be massive and a PR nightmare for Israel.
That said I certainly have no sympathy for Hamas...let the chips fall where they may.
My comment was somewhat sarcastic. This attack was intended to provoke the response that they are getting. However; this might be a case of Israel ripping the band-aid off for good. I believe their intention is to go in and kill and destroy everything that looks like a threat. They will likely go even further than that.
Hamas is planning on the world coming to save them. That second part I am not so sure about. Israel tried the peace process and it was sabotaged. Once they get fully spun up most of the neighbors are not going to want to poke that bear. That is why the politics at play here are fascinating. Everyone is kind of getting laid bare.
Agreed. The region seems long overdue for a "hard reboot." I read an interesting, but brief editorial analysis of what lies ahead, and--spoiler alert--it will be grim.
https://www.bdtonline.com/mowing-the-grass-didnt-work-what-israel-will-have-to-do-in-gaza/article_f4a6f6da-71f4-11ee-9951-7f185c8f940d.html (https://www.bdtonline.com/mowing-the-grass-didnt-work-what-israel-will-have-to-do-in-gaza/article_f4a6f6da-71f4-11ee-9951-7f185c8f940d.html)
The "mowing the grass" strategy sounds a bit like the "door knocking" strategy the IDF has employed to reduce civilian casualties in the past: a text message alert to residents in the area, followed by a small cement bomb through the roof, (the door knock) followed by a full-on precision air strike on a building.
Whether or not the higher casualties are a result of more frequent airstrikes is debatable. What seems certain is that niceties like containment and door knocking will soon become a thing of the past.
I'm no expert, but I think the gloves are going to come off.
IDF has started their incursion into Gaza.
IDF launches large incursion into Gaza overnight | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/idf-launches-large-incursion-into-gaza-overnight/vi-AA1iSpCy?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=3a1fa175d54847f9aa33193f2d514f3d&ei=39)
This is a disturbing circumstance in an already disturbing crisis :(
Dagestan: Mob storms Russian airport in search of Jews https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67258332
It would have been terrifying on that plane.
Quote from: wee drop o bush on October 30, 2023, 01:11:56 PMThis is a disturbing circumstance in an already disturbing crisis :(
Dagestan: Mob storms Russian airport in search of Jews https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67258332
It would have been terrifying on that plane.
That is certainly not something I would have predicted.
We are obviously in a new territory in terms of protests. This happened in NOLA at Tulane University. Again a very surprising (at least to me) turn of events.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/tulane-university-condemns-violence-dueling-palestinian-israel-protests-dark-day-for-our-community
Why does it feel like 1938 all over again?
As if things can't get weirder... Jordan is requesting PATRIOTs from the US....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fears-of-war-they-are-requesting-assistance-from-the-united-states/ar-AA1j5MMW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=ed28f9e15cc84cee966e0ff3f22949de&ei=18
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 30, 2023, 04:31:17 PMWhy does it feel like 1938 all over again?
As if things can't get weirder... Jordan is requesting PATRIOTs from the US....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fears-of-war-they-are-requesting-assistance-from-the-united-states/ar-AA1j5MMW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=ed28f9e15cc84cee966e0ff3f22949de&ei=18
Add to that 90 arms export freeze...so yes...
Jewish college students are facing increased antisemitism from historically "safe spaces."
Echoing concerns at Cornell, Jewish students at Columbia University say they're experiencing antisemitism - CBS New York (cbsnews.com) (https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/echoing-concerns-at-cornell-jewish-students-at-columbia-university-say-theyre-experiencing-antisemitism/)
Cornell University Jewish Students Scared After Violent Threats (businessinsider.com) (https://www.businessinsider.com/cornell-university-jewish-students-scared-violent-threats-interview-2023-10?op=1)
Columbia University, Barnard College silent after faculty letter calls Hamas terrorist attack a legitimate 'military action' (jewishinsider.com) (https://jewishinsider.com/2023/10/colombia-university-barnard-college-faculty-letter-hamas-terror-attack-israel/)
I'm sorry, but I can't think of a single legitimate military action that can be taken against babies, children and others that don't have the ability to fight back.
https://youtu.be/4llhiT7-P7g?si=vS98GwINlON-30Yp
Scary shit.
Magazine defunct since the 90s declares The Russian Army the Strongest in the World.
U.S. News e World Report: The Russian Army Is Right Now the Strongest in the World (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-news-e-world-report-the-russian-army-is-right-now-the-strongest-in-the-world/ar-AA1ja6c8?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=f25f6e18b00141e8b9a6a8cb1d5bba91&ei=40)
Disinformation has gotten.... bad. There are a number of on line channels posing as defunct reputable news sources.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 31, 2023, 08:27:58 PMMagazine defunct since the 90s declares The Russian Army the Strongest in the World.
U.S. News e World Report: The Russian Army Is Right Now the Strongest in the World (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-news-e-world-report-the-russian-army-is-right-now-the-strongest-in-the-world/ar-AA1ja6c8?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=f25f6e18b00141e8b9a6a8cb1d5bba91&ei=40)
Disinformation has gotten.... bad. There are a number of on line channels posing as defunct reputable news sources.
I thought the US military held that honor. I always understood Russia had the
second most powerful army in the world. My understanding today is Russia has the second most powerful army ... in Ukraine.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on October 31, 2023, 08:27:58 PMMagazine defunct since the 90s declares The Russian Army the Strongest in the World.
U.S. News e World Report: The Russian Army Is Right Now the Strongest in the World (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-news-e-world-report-the-russian-army-is-right-now-the-strongest-in-the-world/ar-AA1ja6c8?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=f25f6e18b00141e8b9a6a8cb1d5bba91&ei=40)
Disinformation has gotten.... bad. There are a number of on line channels posing as defunct reputable news sources.
I love the US News "e" World Report...that "e" makes it kosher. :rolleyes1:
(https://i.imgflip.com/84jhu0.jpg)
War at a glance:
Map Shows Massive Scale of Rocket, Missile and Drone Attacks Across Israel (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/map-shows-massive-scale-of-rocket-missile-and-drone-attacks-across-israel/ar-AA1jG9X7?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=beb18c4636774bb3a0469322a0fc621f&ei=52)
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1jG2qD.img?w=768&h=432&m=6)
Hamas can make a lot of rockets out of all the water lines Israel installed in Gaza. This is going to continue for a while yet.
-Blast
Aid workers have been reportedly killed in an airstrike.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68710515
Quote from: Anianna on April 01, 2024, 10:52:57 PMAid workers have been reportedly killed in an airstrike.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68710515
Sadly, this is sometimes what happens when you work in a war zone, be it in Gaza or the South Bronx in the 70s.
Quote from: Anianna on April 01, 2024, 10:52:57 PMAid workers have been reportedly killed in an airstrike.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68710515
I think Central Kitchen does good work. Hard to tell what went wrong here but driving into a war zone is at best a risky proposition and at worst, simply asking for it.
I provided security for a few UN teams while in Iraq as part of a secondary mission and those were some sweaty palm moments. I didn't want to be the guy that lost a UN team and ended up on the news. It didn't appear as though these had any escort at all.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on April 06, 2024, 06:56:28 AMQuote from: Anianna on April 01, 2024, 10:52:57 PMAid workers have been reportedly killed in an airstrike.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68710515
I think Central Kitchen does good work. Hard to tell what went wrong here but driving into a war zone is at best a risky proposition and at worst, simply asking for it.
I provided security for a few UN teams while in Iraq as part of a secondary mission and those were some sweaty palm moments. I didn't want to be the guy that lost a UN team and ended up on the news. It didn't appear as though these had any escort at all.
I heard an interview with Jose Andres, and he sounds like a pretty solid guy, running a really respectable organization. Their response time in disaster-stricken areas is impressive. This is definitely a tragedy.
I've seen countless videos of drone strikes, but the photos of this one show that the level of precision is absolutely stunning. Again, this is a tragedy, and I wish the Israelis had killed the bad guys this time.
It raises an interesting question though; are we more likely to use precision guided munitions because there is comparatively little collateral damage? And if so, are more incidents like this the price we pay?
Quote from: echo83 on April 06, 2024, 06:05:33 PMQuote from: Uomo Senza Nome on April 06, 2024, 06:56:28 AMQuote from: Anianna on April 01, 2024, 10:52:57 PMAid workers have been reportedly killed in an airstrike.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68710515
I think Central Kitchen does good work. Hard to tell what went wrong here but driving into a war zone is at best a risky proposition and at worst, simply asking for it.
I provided security for a few UN teams while in Iraq as part of a secondary mission and those were some sweaty palm moments. I didn't want to be the guy that lost a UN team and ended up on the news. It didn't appear as though these had any escort at all.
I heard an interview with Jose Andres, and he sounds like a pretty solid guy, running a really respectable organization. Their response time in disaster-stricken areas is impressive. This is definitely a tragedy.
I've seen countless videos of drone strikes, but the photos of this one show that the level of precision is absolutely stunning. Again, this is a tragedy, and I wish the Israelis had killed the bad guys this time.
It raises an interesting question though; are we more likely to use precision guided munitions because there is comparatively little collateral damage? And if so, are more incidents like this the price we pay?
When you have an enemy that hides amidst a civilian population and uses them as human shields you will inevitably have incidents like this. These aid workers know this going in. They know they are putting their lives in jeopardy and I admire their courage and support their efforts but you cannot keep rolling the dice in a war zone and expect to win every time.
An IDF rep stated that a Colonel and Major were relived for firing without clearance. They had only a partial ID of what they believed to be an HVT in one of the vehicles that turned out to be bogus.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-world-central-kitchen-gaza-aid-workers-69b6176362dafc8e4e2754b2342faa1d
Quote from: NT2C on April 06, 2024, 06:30:44 PMQuote from: echo83 on April 06, 2024, 06:05:33 PMQuote from: Uomo Senza Nome on April 06, 2024, 06:56:28 AMQuote from: Anianna on April 01, 2024, 10:52:57 PMAid workers have been reportedly killed in an airstrike.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68710515
I think Central Kitchen does good work. Hard to tell what went wrong here but driving into a war zone is at best a risky proposition and at worst, simply asking for it.
I provided security for a few UN teams while in Iraq as part of a secondary mission and those were some sweaty palm moments. I didn't want to be the guy that lost a UN team and ended up on the news. It didn't appear as though these had any escort at all.
I heard an interview with Jose Andres, and he sounds like a pretty solid guy, running a really respectable organization. Their response time in disaster-stricken areas is impressive. This is definitely a tragedy.
I've seen countless videos of drone strikes, but the photos of this one show that the level of precision is absolutely stunning. Again, this is a tragedy, and I wish the Israelis had killed the bad guys this time.
It raises an interesting question though; are we more likely to use precision guided munitions because there is comparatively little collateral damage? And if so, are more incidents like this the price we pay?
When you have an enemy that hides amidst a civilian population and uses them as human shields you will inevitably have incidents like this. These aid workers know this going in. They know they are putting their lives in jeopardy and I admire their courage and support their efforts but you cannot keep rolling the dice in a war zone and expect to win every time.
I agree with you 100%. They're delivering aid, a noble endeavor in and of itself...but they're doing so in a warzone where one side places little to no value on innocent lives...and relies on innocents dying to further it's cause.
I'm of the opinion that PGMs have created an unrealistic expectation that strikes are surgical, clean, and always get the intended target. I remember watching newsreels from Desert Storm as a kid and being amazed at the accuracy of what I was seeing.
Had this airstrike caved in the roofs of three
bad SUVs, it would be a different story; this one was sad.
Iran now loosely claims to have some canned sunshine. Seems unlikely it was tested as that would have been noticed by all the more powerful nations states right away. Seems more likely the Iranian congressman is talking out of both sides of his mouth.
Yemen's Houthi rebels claim 2 attacks in Gulf of Aden as Iran official renews nuclear bomb threats (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/yemens-houthi-rebels-claim-2-attacks-in-gulf-of-aden-as-iran-official-renews-nuclear-bomb-threats/ar-BB1m52MY?ocid=BingNewsSerp)
Iran allegedly has nuclear bombs, Iranian lawmaker claims: Report (americanmilitarynews.com) (https://americanmilitarynews.com/2024/05/iran-allegedly-has-nuclear-bombs-iranian-lawmaker-claims-report/)
It has been speculated for some time that they have the bomb ready to go.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/explainer-how-close-is-iran-having-nuclear-weapons-2024-04-18/
Be that as it is, when the old nuclear deal was penned it was believed that it would take Iran 10 years to develop the bomb under that deal. It has been ten years, so time is up.
Quote from: Uomo Senza Nome on May 13, 2024, 11:09:26 AMIran now loosely claims to have some canned sunshine. Seems unlikely it was tested as that would have been noticed by all the more powerful nations states right away. Seems more likely the Iranian congressman is talking out of both sides of his mouth.
Yemen's Houthi rebels claim 2 attacks in Gulf of Aden as Iran official renews nuclear bomb threats (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/yemens-houthi-rebels-claim-2-attacks-in-gulf-of-aden-as-iran-official-renews-nuclear-bomb-threats/ar-BB1m52MY?ocid=BingNewsSerp)
Iran allegedly has nuclear bombs, Iranian lawmaker claims: Report (americanmilitarynews.com) (https://americanmilitarynews.com/2024/05/iran-allegedly-has-nuclear-bombs-iranian-lawmaker-claims-report/)
It has been speculated for some time that they have the bomb ready to go.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/explainer-how-close-is-iran-having-nuclear-weapons-2024-04-18/
Be that as it is, when the old nuclear deal was penned it was believed that it would take Iran 10 years to develop the bomb under that deal. It has been ten years, so time is up.
Sure would be a shame if they accidentally set it off while transporting it. Just saying...
What was their success rate on all the drone & missile strikes? They tested the design of those before using them. What's the likelihood of an untested nuke working the first time given their history? Now if someone (say N. Korea) "assisted" with development and build of the device(s), it's probably a different story.
Quote from: Z.O.R.G. on May 14, 2024, 06:09:28 PMNow if someone (say N. Korea) "assisted" with development and build of the device(s), it's probably a different story.
I believe that was the arrangement between Pakistan and North Korea. Pakistan got NK's missile technology in exchange for their expertise in fission weapons.
Not exactly the kind of international cooperation one hopes for ...
Quote from: majorhavoc on May 14, 2024, 08:10:59 PMNot exactly the kind of international cooperation one hopes for ...
Well stated!
Quote from: NT2C on May 13, 2024, 11:51:56 AMSure would be a shame if they accidentally set it off while transporting it. Just saying.
With any luck the folks who handled the logistics for a certain shipment of pagers and walkie talkies will be in charge of logistics for this transport.
Things are getting hairy internationally again. Israel launched strikes against nuclear and military targets in Iran (https://www.npr.org/2025/06/12/nx-s1-5431956/israel-strikes-iran-and-braces-for-retaliation)
The live feed on BBC is where I'm seeing most of the stuff below:
An Israeli official claims Iran has enough enriched uranium to make bombs, and started trying to build one months ago. Israel says that the strikes will continue as long as it takes to dismantle Iran's ability to make a bomb. Israel has also declared a state of emergency and began preparations against an Iranian counter-attack.
The US State Department denies any US involvement and claims Israel took unilateral action.
The evacuation of the US embassy in Iraq and military families from the wider Middle East seems to indicate the US knew something was up.
Israel targeted nuclear scientists along with the main enrichment plant at Natanz
Iran is claiming civilian deaths including children. The Iran Revolutionary Guard will be looking for a new chief, as Israel took out their leader. Of course, their Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is swearing vengeance.
Iran had warned it would retaliate against US military forces if Israel attacked during the ongoing nuclear talks with the US. We'll see if that happens.
ADMIN HAT ON
We can discuss this here so long as we keep things factual and non-political. You folks know the drill, use of soapboxes is highly discouraged.
Admin hat off
The Israeli attack is significant. But considering Iran launched drone and missle attacks on Israel earlier this year, I am not surprised.
Iran's previous attack on Israel followed by vows of further violence...well you do not have to be a psychic to have seen this coming.
That said the ferocity of the current strike is significant. This can easily escalate. If you have any plans to travel to the middle east this summer you may want to consider alternatives.
Well, at least Armageddon didn't kick off while I was asleep or at the gym.
Iran has responded with drones and missiles, seems like the missile attacks are still ongoing.
Israel struck nuclear labs and the Uranium Conversion Facility in Isfahan.
Here are the people who are confirmed to have been killed in the strikes according to Iranian state media:
- Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
- Gholamali Rashid, the commander of Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters
- Fereydoon Abbasi, nuclear scientist and former head Iran's Atomic Energy Organization
- Mohammad Mahdi Tehranchi, another nuclear scientist involved in Iran's nuclear weapons program
- Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran's armed forces
- Abdolhamid Minouchehr, Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, Amirhossein Feqhi, and another scientist with the surname Motallebizadeh (No first name as of yet), nuclear scientists at Tehran's Shahid Beheshti University.
I will refrain from discussing nations and politicians wrt where they stand on the attacks, as this isn't the right forum for that.Looks like the Houthis have launched a missile at Israel too.
Israel has confirmed hits by Iranian missiles, but considering Israel is also masterful at disinformation. These hits may or may not be the the targets they claim. They may simply be missle sumps.
In any event the Israeli strike was masteful; it was obviously well planed. The follow up airstrikes indicate that Israel is not playing an game of tit for tat but plans to inflict serious damage on Iran's ability to project power.
If you look at flightaware (at least last night) ther was not a single airliner flying over Iran. Clearly the word is out stay away from the area.
I was flying to Dubrovnik on Thursday and there were multiple announcements at Logan and Munich about delayed or canceled lights bound for Tel Aviv. That would have been right before or perhaps in the early hours of this major escalation.
Watched some live cams earlier today.
The *Iron Dome* is impressive.
One shot showed a dozen or so missiles coming in from Iran...all got neutralized by Israel.
Then I saw a live feed from Iran...oof! Like 6 or 7 missiles from Israel...all hit. Hit a oil refinery and, yeah, pretty big boom and lots of flames.
Commentary stated that Iran has a 2% effective hit rate. Israel's missiles currently having around a 90% effective hit rate.
Ouch.
Anybody got any clues on quantity of missiles stockpiled by both countries? I mean, how long can Iran keep this up with such abysmal results?
Quote from: Lambykins on June 14, 2025, 08:56:24 PMWatched some live cams earlier today.
The *Iron Dome* is impressive.
One shot showed a dozen or so missiles coming in from Iran...all got neutralized by Israel.
Then I saw a live feed from Iran...oof! Like 6 or 7 missiles from Israel...all hit. Hit a oil refinery and, yeah, pretty big boom and lots of flames.
Commentary stated that Iran has a 2% effective hit rate. Israel's missiles currently having around a 90% effective hit rate.
Ouch.
Anybody got any clues on quantity of missiles stockpiled by both countries? I mean, how long can Iran keep this up with such abysmal results?
No idea about stockpiles, but I've seen several reports that Mossad infiltration teams targeted ballistic missile bases and storage depots along with air defense missile systems with drones, similar to the Ukrainian attack on Russian bomber bases.
This kind of drone warfare scares me.
The Blinkov youtube channel did an analysis of the strike and opinined about Iran's sustainability.
I am no expert but I suspect Iran will continue the attacks regardless of effectiveness to save face.
Quote from: Raptor on June 15, 2025, 11:37:59 AMThe Blinkov youtube channel did an analysis of the strike and opinined about Iran's sustainability.
I am no expert but I suspect Iran will continue the attacks regardless of effectiveness to save face prevent a coup.
FTFY
U.S. strikes Iranian nuclear sites, Trump says (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-strikes-iranian-nuclear-site-trump-says-rcna213781)
Don't want to argue the right or wrong of it, but keep your heads on a swivel because I think life just got real interesting. If you have friends or family deployed to the CENTCOM area, sending good vibes your way.
Quote from: DarkAxel on June 21, 2025, 08:08:13 PMU.S. strikes Iranian nuclear sites, Trump says (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-strikes-iranian-nuclear-site-trump-says-rcna213781)
Don't want to argue the right or wrong of it, but keep your heads on a swivel because I think life just got real interesting. If you have friends or family deployed to the CENTCOM area, sending good vibes your way.
Watching various live news feeds.
Haven't heard anything about Chinese or Russian response, or European opinion.
Currently watching live feed from Tel Aviv, Iran is shooting what they have left, I guess. Iron Dome is mostly doing it's job. Once in a while you'll see one slip by.
It seems like the Iranian position has degraded to the point where their retaliation options are limited. It doesn't help them that Israel is targeting Iran's ballistic missile batteries, factories, and storage sites, and Israel has dismantled most of Iran's proxy forces as well. I think the only real proxies they have left are the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq. I'm actually surprised that Iran hasn't loosened their leash already.
The only real way Iran has to retaliate would be to try to close the Strait of Hormuz with Anti-ship missiles and mines, and Iran got a major naval spanking last time they tried that tactic during the Iran-Iraq War back in the '80s.
There have been online rumors about Iranian sleeper cells in the US being activated, but in this modern info environment there's a good chance it's just propaganda or misinformation. Time will tell.
Quote from: DarkAxel on June 22, 2025, 12:20:35 PMThere have been online rumors about Iranian sleeper cells in the US being activated, but in this modern info environment there's a good chance it's just propaganda or misinformation. Time will tell.
There will always be such rumors in wartime, and make no mistake, Iran considers us at war, even if our elected leaders have not declared us to be. This means vigilance is key to personal survival. If something doesn't "feel" right, heed your subconscious warning and choose a different path/option. It will probably be a false alarm, but it may keep you alive if it isn't. And if something
really jangles your alarm bells, and you can articulate just what is doing it, exit the area and call 911 (or other appropriate number for your area).
Quote from: DarkAxel on June 22, 2025, 12:20:35 PMIt seems like the Iranian position has degraded to the point where their retaliation options are limited. It doesn't help them that Israel is targeting Iran's ballistic missile batteries, factories, and storage sites, and Israel has dismantled most of Iran's proxy forces as well. I think the only real proxies they have left are the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq. I'm actually surprised that Iran hasn't loosened their leash already.
The only real way Iran has to retaliate would be to try to close the Strait of Hormuz with Anti-ship missiles and mines, and Iran got a major naval spanking last time they tried that tactic during the Iran-Iraq War back in the '80s.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia3.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Fv1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdGI4OWZuMnltbHB4NnBidXE2N3M1enMwbWJrdG55MHlrYmt5d3hhbyZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n%2FHSnVBlGAb0W7S%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=2573bd593c19af8ca019dccb2141cc0cb82a7781d323ddc387b87555fdaedf6f)
It may be over, folks
Trump announces Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/)
Quote from: DarkAxel on June 23, 2025, 05:45:15 PMIt may be over, folks
Trump announces Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/)
Does Iran still exist as a theocracy? Then it ain't over, they just hit the pause button.
Quote from: DarkAxel on June 23, 2025, 05:45:15 PMIt may be over, folks
Trump announces Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/)
Iran essentially responded, "nuh-uh, but we'll stop if they stop"
Quote"As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around," Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi (https://www.timesnownews.com/topic/seyed-abbas-araghchi) said.
"As of now, there is NO "agreement" on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards," he added.
Quote from: Anianna on June 23, 2025, 08:51:41 PMQuote from: DarkAxel on June 23, 2025, 05:45:15 PMIt may be over, folks
Trump announces Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-israel-iran-ceasefire/)
Iran essentially responded, "nuh-uh, but we'll stop if they stop"
Quote"As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around," Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi (https://www.timesnownews.com/topic/seyed-abbas-araghchi) said.
"As of now, there is NO "agreement" on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards," he added.
Face-saving. A lot of Iran's responses are meant for domestic consumption. For example, Fars reported that the government is claiming that the ceasefire talk was a distraction because the US was "humiliated" by the attack on CENTCOM headquarters. Right. 12 missiles that were either intercepted or missed completely and injured no one because Iran warned us the missiles were coming. Oh the humiliation.
It's telling that Iran's messaging about a ceasefire went from "Never gonna happen" to "We'll stop shooting if Israel does" in roughly the same time frame as the announced ceasefire got closer to kicking in.
Looks like this thing is wrapping up..
:smiley_coolpeace:
One more left, the Ukraine. It is the long pole in the tent.
The current crew has directly or indirectly ended 5-7 conflicts depending upon where you hold the ruler. I gotta give them some kudos. It will take some doing to get Russia to the table.