Heads up East Coast of US and the Caribbean.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145229_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
The weather guessers are showing a northward track as likely at least for now. Lee is also expected to intensify. So this storm is one that everyone needs to watch.
(https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_13_ens.gif)
The latest update shows this projected to turn north and not hit the US. While most of the models are showing a northward track, it is still too early to do anything except keep an eye on it.
Up here in Maine, we're likely to get some larger than normal ocean swells, but that's about it.
Famous last words ...
Quote from: majorhavoc on September 07, 2023, 05:56:23 PMUp here in Maine, we're likely to get some larger than normal ocean swells, but that's about it.
Famous last words ...
Yeah, most of the models show it staying out at sea, but there are a few that are showing it hitting up in the New England area. Keep your fingers crossed that it stays away!
So, let me get this straight: it just became a Category 1 hurricane yesterday and today it's already a Cat 5? (https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/weather/hurricane-lee-path-friday-climate/index.html) How is that even possible?
Still think it'll spin past the Eastern seaboard and go harmless out to sea. But if it doesn't, this thing has real potential to do serious harm to areas not at all used to storms of this magnitude.
Hmm. Just to be safe, think I'll do some internet research and find out what number comes after 5 ...
Quote from: majorhavoc on September 08, 2023, 08:01:19 AMHmm. Just to be safe, think I'll do some internet research and find out what number comes after 5 ...
(https://ateenagelookonthewritingprocess.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/gif-2.gif)
Quote from: majorhavoc on September 08, 2023, 08:01:19 AMSo, let me get this straight: it just became a Category 1 hurricane yesterday and today it's already a Cat 5? (https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/weather/hurricane-lee-path-friday-climate/index.html) How is that even possible?
Still think it'll spin past the Eastern seaboard and go harmless out to sea. But if it doesn't, this thing has real potential to do serious harm to areas not at all used to storms of this magnitude.
Hmm. Just to be safe, think I'll do some internet research and find out what number comes after 5 ...
There is no Cat 6 . But if there was it would look like....
https://youtu.be/gzi2kBAoSBE?si=ynvAuTAEo9o0K_az
The reason for the rapid increase in lee's winds is the high temperature of the water in the Atlantic. It is in effect gasoline for the fire.
(https://media.raven.news/images/wx/bn9/60min/fl_sea_sfc_temps.jpg)
The good news is that cat 5 storms always degrade in strength. They reach a point where the intensity cannot be sustained. That and it is reaching this level of intensity away from land. This will churn up the waves and suck up fuel for any storms that follow.
It was this same intensification close to landfall that made Katrina and Andrew so damaging. Shallow waters tend to be warmer.
Also Lee is about to hit cooler water that resulted from the previous storms going through the area. See the 78 degree water on the map That colder water streak was a storm track.
I just hope Lee does make that turn. If it hits the GOM the water is so hot there Lee will not weaken at all.
Lee seems to be slowing down which is never good but all the models are still showing a turn to the north. Margot is also headed north. Strange activity but I am NOT complaining.
Still keep an eye on the path especially in the New England states. I suspect that Lee will degrade further than shown here IF this projection proves correct.
(https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/atcf/latestATL.png)
Models are mostly showing it tracking toward Nova Scotia and making landfall as a tropical storm. However, there's still likely to be quite a bit of severe weather in the area as it arrives toward next weekend. If you're in the New England states, or the eastern parts of Canada, you could get some pretty strong wind and rain from it.
Could be interesting ...
Ok! Now heads up New England and US East Coast!
The path seems to be fairly clear ... north. Lee made the turn.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/222953_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
Quote from: Raptor on September 12, 2023, 04:14:16 PMOk! Now heads up New England and US East Coast!
The path seems to be fairly clear ... north. Lee made the turn.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/222953_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
I'm just north of Portland, about six miles from the coast. Right about where that white line demarking the western extreme of Lee's projected path intersects the Maine coast.
I expect to see a lot of wind and rain on Saturday. We'll undoubtedly lose power. And the ground here is fairly saturated with recent rain so there'll be some localized flooding and possibly road washouts. But I'm on high ground and unless a tree falls on my car or my house, I'm not too worried.
Will give sit reps as warranted and/or possible. But really, I'm expecting this to be mostly hype.
Again, famous last words ... :clownshoes:
Based upon the current plot you should be fine. Still keep an eye on Lee if it mov3s westward then you may be in for a bumpy ride
The latest models are showing a more westward track as a possibility. The models have so far been relatively accurate but still Lee is pretty far from land and moving slowly. A lot can happen before it makes landfall.
That said anyone in the New England & Nova Scotia area should prepare for Lee. It appears as though they are expecting Lee to speed up and if that happens, by Friday, its impact should start be felt.
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_tracks_latest.png)
Still like I said a lot can happen between now and Friday and based upon the wind @ 45,000 feet there sure looks to me like a tendency to go to the east and not west. That said that is just a guess on my part. YMMV.
Lee is closing in on Bermuda.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/bm/hamilton/2595/weather-forecast/2595
The wind at Hamilton airport is SE @ 36 mph
The airport is scheduled to remain closed to traffic until tomorrow at noon.
https://bermudaairport.com/at-the-airport/
Meanwhile the Maine/Canada border and Nova Scotia appear to be the predicted landfall area.
it looks like the area between Bar Harbor, Yarmouth and Halifax is most likely area of impact.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/222953_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
The good news is that Lee has speedup which reduces its effect locally by minimizing its time in any one area. That and the sustained winds are down to 80+/- mph.
The bad news is that it is tracking as predicted.
Time for Maine an Nova Scotia to finalize any needed preparations and take shelter.