Hurricane Hilary, which is currently at a category 4, but is expected to drop to a category 1 by the time it makes landfall, is projected to hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Sunday. It is then projected to drive inland through California and into Nevada by Monday, with significant rainfall in both states as well as the surrounding areas. Some estimates are that this one storm will bring more rain than the region usually sees in an entire year.
If you're in the area of effect, please make sure that you're prepared for significant rainfall and flooding, high winds, and power and utility outages.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/055245.shtml?rainqpf
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP0923WPCQPF+gif/174308WPCQPF_sm.gif)
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/18/weather/hurricane-hilary-rain-flooding-forecast-friday/index.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/hurricane-hilary-threatens-dangerous-rain-for-mexicos-baja-california-may-get-rare-tropical-storm/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/174308.shtml?key_messages#contents
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP092023_key_messages+png/174308_key_messages_sm.png)
What blows me away is that this is apparently the first tropical storm warning in SoCal ... ever (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-hilary-2023-path-storm-california-forecast/). That just staggers the imagination. Does that region have any capacity to respond if this is half as bad as forecasters say it could be?
It's not like it's possible to evacuate greater Los Angeles.
Quote from: majorhavoc on August 19, 2023, 03:39:46 PMWhat blows me away is that this is apparently the first tropical storm warning in SoCal ... ever (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-hilary-2023-path-storm-california-forecast/). That just staggers the imagination. Does that region have any capacity to respond if this is half as bad as forecasters say it could be?
It's not like it's possible to evacuate greater Los Angeles.
My manager lives in Long Beach, so everyone on the team is hoping that he gets through okay. Right now it looks like the worst of it will be going west of the Los Angeles area, but they're still going to get a bunch of rain and probably flooding.
A quick search turned up that it's been 45 years (1978) since the last tropical storm hit California. And before that you have to go back another 39 years to 1939! I'm guessing that back in 1978 they weren't using the same warnings that they do now.
https://fox40.com/weather/hurricane-hilary/why-are-hurricanes-so-rare-on-the-california-coast/
So did anyone have "California Hurricane" on their 2023 Bingo card?...
I don't believe it's the first. (But I could be wrong) I seem to remember a tropical force storm hitting us in the 70's or 80's,
MOAB
This means you
With Hurricane Hilary fast bearing down on the region and rain already beginning to fall in Southern California's desert areas, officials on Saturday are urging residents and visitors on Catalina Island and those living in portions of San Bernardino County to evacuate.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-hilary-expected-bring-downpours-100016650.html
I'm not super worried. The town we live in is one of the most hilly in America. Or something like that. So run off is pretty good.
My only concern is our dogs. They've been living outside most of the summer. And haven't been bathed in a couple weeks. So they are getting baths today. As we will be bringing them inside to stay tomorrow. If not, tonite.
I'm also putting the car cover on my Jeep. Only because I just got it detailed. Because I'm selling it. I'm also going to tarp some stuff in the garage. As we do get a few small leaks when it rains hard.
I might fill the tub too. Just in case.
I am not trying to minimize ant potential danger but Hillary will not be a major storm once it goes inland the storm should break up quickly. It seems to me the biggest risk is the amount of rain it it will drop. It is moving at 23 mph which is pretty darn fast for a storm...this is good news in that it will spread the rain over a wider area and is not likely to concentrate it all in one area.
The major population centers of San Diego and LA are to weaker ("wet") side of the storm which means more water less rain and very little damaging storm surge in those areas.
The key issue IMO is the sensationalism that the MSM will be transmitting. For instance the statement that this is the first time the Pacific Coast has had a TS. They are rare but this is by no means the first.
QuoteWhile hurricanes are rare on the U.S. West Coast, it's not impossible for a hurricane or tropical system to impact Southern California. Last year,[color=var(--global-color-action)] remnant moisture from eastern Pacific tropical storm Kay impacted parts of southern California (https://www.king5.com/video/news/local/hurricane-kay-expected-to-bring-significant-rain-and-high-winds-to-san-diego-here-are-ways-to-prepare/509-97f0a210-517d-4a83-9ed2-a107aa8468d6)[/url], including San Diego. This was the first tropical storm to impact California in a quarter of a century. [/font][/size][/color]
Prior to that, Hurricane Nora moved over Southern California as a tropical storm in 1997.
A hurricane did make landfall in California in the 1800s. In 1858, the [color=var(--global-color-action)]San Diego Hurricane (http://www.hurricanescience.org/history/storms/pre1900s/1858/)[/url] brought hurricane conditions to San Diego and Long Beach.[/font][/size][/color]
My advice is prepare as you would for an earthquake...i.e. no power and utilities for a few days stay inside when the rains come and be prepared to leave. If you are in a coastal area you should make a decision quickly to stay or evacuate. If there is any doubt about the risk of storm surge consider leaving for higher ground. I would suggest using the tsunami warning zone as your guide.
In the middle of the storm. L A region just got hit by an earthquake
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/earthquakes/earthquake-shakes-parts-of-southern-california/3209652/
Quote from: flybynight on August 20, 2023, 05:00:18 PMIn the middle of the storm. L A region just got hit by an earthquake
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/earthquakes/earthquake-shakes-parts-of-southern-california/3209652/
So far not much damage but yes... a TS & an earthquake.
Quote[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]There were no immediate reports of significant damage.[/color]
My son felt a slight earthquake. But I was standing and did not. 2.5 is very small for here. We yave those almost weekly.
I agree about the storm. Only the inland desert areas are at risk. And only because of flooding.
So far the rain is not anywhere near as bad as last winter. But last winter it rained day after day. Nothing like a PNW rain tho.
Storms here are like major news events. But if your from Seattle its like a daily shower.