Invest 92-L...
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/Hurricane_Tracker-640x360.jpg)
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/5_Day_Projected_Path-640x360.jpg)
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/Spaghetti_Plots-640x360.jpg)
I think we are going to see more of Joe Bastardi's prediction on the Euro models, with it taking a Allison trajectory with a more NW track through LA.
Note Hotlinked map (should be) always be the most current version of this map.
The latest guesses on #92 as of 12pm cdt 6/16/21
Somewhere on the GOM coast between FL and Mexico seems to be the consensus of opinion... :)
In fairness, it is still too early to tell.
(https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif)
Space City Weather (one of the few somewhat trustworthy weather predictors) says it looks like this current storm will miss Houston. :)
https://spacecityweather.com/tropics-forecast-becoming-clearer-as-houston-weekend-outlook-improves/
-Blast
I really have no "feel" this one. It does not seem to have lot of directional indicators at least to me.
I am already getting notices from my utility company about the potential of a loss of power.
IMO I suggest everyone on the GOM pay attention for the next couple of days.
Local newz is saying prepare for 6 to 8 inches of rain and 30-40 mph gusts this weekend.
(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/197091310_1899860820194899_1670914937309410351_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=aTr2xBCfkvgAX9W4zH1&tn=HaD0LYoA8rDvPRcP&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=089546744bf4818feed681028604cae5&oe=60CFD809)
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/AL032021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
There looks to be some significant tornado damage about 50 miles northeast of me in Brewton, AL, with several homes and the High School damaged.
Not much excitement here at the Oshea Armadillo Ranch & Coyote Preserve. According to my weather sensor we got a little over 3.5 inches of rain and a wind gust of 29 mph.
(https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/198201900_1902682366579411_5898394720626138120_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=o4yMAa8JOn8AX-CTN74&_nc_ht=scontent-sjc3-1.xx&oh=ddf032295753f1df9dd7937b2c0f4e9b&oe=60D6165E)
The problem with live linked maps is that when I come along a week after the event I've got no idea what ot was that you were getting interested in :smiley_chinrub:
(https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/203257960_4307280859337361_8780463940915501385_n.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=hECmdwebausAX9HDqL2&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=4eb8643151e01dfbc2c9fb1c893eb376&oe=60D99ED6)
(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/201452175_1907134792800835_7308746877127408510_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=0Q8V8-7VrY8AX9SDfQ1&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=321fb84281ab7fb1a60af76fbd41a267&oe=60DEEA92)
(https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/200897645_1907134812800833_8487403526033649539_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=jmSwKvsx5P8AX8lDvHZ&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=605cce3b62a85a8635783cf0be4106c7&oe=60DE4749)
Quote from: sheddi on June 24, 2021, 07:18:48 AM
The problem with live linked maps is that when I come along a week after the event I've got no idea what ot was that you were getting interested in :smiley_chinrub:
That is actually a good thing...it is gone and there was not much damage. :)
Invest 95-L and 97-L....
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/Spaghetti_Plots-640x360.jpg)
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/Spaghetti_Plots_Two-640x360.jpg)
Now TD 5...
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/025646_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Me: "Dang...I'm supposed to have vacation that around then."
Me, 5 seconds later: "Wait...I'm not in disaster recovery anymore."
15-ish years has apparently lead to some deeply ingrained habits.
Quote from: boskone on June 30, 2021, 11:24:48 PM
Me: "Dang...I'm supposed to have vacation that around then."
Me, 5 seconds later: "Wait...I'm not in disaster recovery anymore."
15-ish years has apparently lead to some deeply ingrained habits.
I transferred from the Linecrew to the engineering dept a few years ago, so I no longer go out-of-town for storm duty.....and its starting to show on my waistline. Working 16 hour days for two weeks at a time, you could drop 15 to 20 pounds pretty easily*. :icon_crazy:
*Except when working in Acadiana, cause those folks feed you too well.
Quote from: RickOShea on July 01, 2021, 01:13:42 PM
Quote from: boskone on June 30, 2021, 11:24:48 PM
Me: "Dang...I'm supposed to have vacation that around then."
Me, 5 seconds later: "Wait...I'm not in disaster recovery anymore."
15-ish years has apparently lead to some deeply ingrained habits.
I transferred from the Linecrew to the engineering dept a few years ago, so I no longer go out-of-town for storm duty.....and its starting to show on my waistline. Working 16 hour days for two weeks at a time, you could drop 15 to 20 pounds pretty easily*. :icon_crazy:
*Except when working in Acadiana, cause those folks feed you too well.
Truth. And since I got time-and-a-half, the paychecks were nice.
Useful and well-paid, not a bad combination.
Quote from: boskone on July 01, 2021, 01:32:24 PM
Quote from: RickOShea on July 01, 2021, 01:13:42 PM
Quote from: boskone on June 30, 2021, 11:24:48 PM
Me: "Dang...I'm supposed to have vacation that around then."
Me, 5 seconds later: "Wait...I'm not in disaster recovery anymore."
15-ish years has apparently lead to some deeply ingrained habits.
I transferred from the Linecrew to the engineering dept a few years ago, so I no longer go out-of-town for storm duty.....and its starting to show on my waistline. Working 16 hour days for two weeks at a time, you could drop 15 to 20 pounds pretty easily*. :icon_crazy:
*Except when working in Acadiana, cause those folks feed you too well.
Truth. And since I got time-and-a-half, the paychecks were nice.
Useful and well-paid, not a bad combination.
The 2004 season was my best for hurricane OT. I ended up with 784 hours of overtime that year.
That is a fast moving storm.
(https://media.wwltv.com/assets/WWL/images/087a341f-74a4-4fdf-9206-c92c3fb4535e/087a341f-74a4-4fdf-9206-c92c3fb4535e_750x422.png)
(https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/224308946_238038431470648_6041598724559360073_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=6rgL7PZpAgEAX-bqCQm&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-1.xx&oh=dced20c36c5ce8e44bc40ed044a4f8d7&oe=6100E5C7)
(https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/221847237_238038458137312_1779731201778133710_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=cMXTHVC2CUsAX98Y94v&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-1.xx&oh=651634ff13663488c65f0bb6ec6e4109&oe=6101FF48)
This was released today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFAXSazk5sI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFAXSazk5sI)
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)
Looks like east coast for these 2 also.
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/Spaghetti_Plots-640x360.jpg)
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/Hurricane_Tracker-640x360.jpg)
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/5_Day_Projected_Path-640x360.jpg)
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/025947_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
(https://cdn.tegna-media.com/wwl/weather/5_Day_Projected_Path_Two-640x360.jpg)
TS Grace looks to be heading in Raptor's direction. Hopefully he won't get to soak test his back-up generators again!
TS Grace is on course for Mexico.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL072021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/150122_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
The site Windy.com (which BTW IMO is an excellent site) shows clearly what is steering Grace.
The first picture are the surface winds (at the maximum point of disturbance) and the second shows what is steering Grace at FL 340 (~34,000 ft @ std pressure) there is a very strong steering air current that is keeping Grace out of the GOM. Both markers are at the same point.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/174153_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
So it's roughly three days away from NOLA? Time for locals to top off their tanks and start tying things down?
Quote from: sheddi on August 26, 2021, 02:30:53 PM
So it's roughly three days away from NOLA? Time for locals to top off their tanks and start tying things down?
Naaahhh!
Most will wait until Sunday AM when they all will decide to fill up at the same time.
Then they will go buy milk, eggs, cold cuts and other items in need of refrigeration... that & bottled water, toilet paper and Pop Tarts. :rolleyes1:
3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast at or
near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, where there is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday,
especially along the coast of Louisiana. Storm Surge and Hurricane
watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later
tonight or Friday morning. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 18.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 19.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 23.7N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 25.6N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 27.2N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 28.9N 90.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.9N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 34.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown
Quote from: flybynight on August 26, 2021, 05:01:09 PM
60H 29/0600Z 27.2N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 28.9N 90.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
110mph winds at landfall? Not good.
I see there's now a hurricane watch in place for the LA and MS coasts.
So...what you're telling me is that Texas should go back to regular quarantine drinking, not hurricane drinking?
I've merged the Hurricane Ida posts into a single topic (https://ufozs.com/smf/index.php?topic=423.0), for your convenience.
Hurricane Larry is out in the mid-Atlantic at present but might bother Bermuda in a week or so:
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL122021_wind_probs_34_F120+png/144317.png)
And there's an invest over north-western Nicaragua that might yet bring more trouble to the GoM.
Quote from: Raptor on August 05, 2021, 02:29:21 PM
Looks like east coast for these 2 also.
Nevermind, noted the date of your post.
Heads up Houston!
It looks like Nicholas is taking aim somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. It will hit early in the week. If you are in that area you need to check your preps now.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150131.shtml?cone#contents
Here's the current TS Nicholas cone map:
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/213616_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
and rainfall forecast:
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1421WPCQPF+gif/213616WPCQPF_sm.gif)
Bring it on!
-Blast
Quote from: Blast on September 13, 2021, 08:50:32 AMBring it on! -Blast
People say that...... :clownshoes:
Just bumping this thread to mention Peter and Rose.
Peter is currently looking to spend the week moving NW between the Bahamas and Bermuda:
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204221_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Rose is out in the mid-Atlantic and unlikely to bother anyone in the near future other than unlucky (or foolhardy) sailors:
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203824_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
FWIW, by this time last year (a record year) we were already through the alphabetical names and onto Beta.