This has been a thought that has been gathering for me for a while:
While SHTF as we (likely) envision it hasn't happened, the parts that very well might make it up have, consider:
Riots and social unrest- riots of 2020, etc, you name it; look worldwide too. This gives a good indicator of the general public actions in a grid down scenario.
Likewise look at the aftermath of Katrina.
Contagion and supply chain- Covid exposed just how fragile and quickly the just in time delivery systems will break down. Now scale it to something that is 5-10% lethal in terms of numbers?
War- Ukraine and others; initially this gives us a view of what war would look like early on but as manufacturing grinds to a halt in SHTF? That long logistical tail that feeds the military becomes unsustainable or at least restricted severely. Think of the terms of a M1 tank. It's a incredible weapon that requires massive logistics to make it work.
In SHTF the. military will contract if for no other reason then it's current level of functioning can't sustain itself in reduced economic output.
Fire- I think a lot of people discount just how much of a problem this would be. Fire service works because not everything is on fire at once. Cities and even towns will be burned beyond imagination. Even our bug out lairs; in SHTF fire becomes a "cheap" weapon. I say this as a former FF.
Sanitation- this is likely to kill far more people than anything else. No potable water or proper sanitation? Disease central- we've seen numerous boil water decrees all over the country. Imagine it's bigger.
Power outage- how's without saying it won't last long. Look at the Texas power outage a few years back along with the everyday power outages that happen. On a long enough timeline it's going to be a killer.
Natural disaster- take your pick from hurricanes to tsunamis to any other weather event. These happen somewhat regularly; certainly enough to gauge effects.
Likely there are more I'm not thinking of. Point in my ramblings is: while SHTF hasn't happened, the parts that will make it up have.
Additional data points: massive displacements of populations around the globe due to aforementioned political and social unrest, climate disruptions and the fraglity of economic systems (for all the reasons Ghost has already mentioned).
This all puts nations and their governments under stress. Which leads to instability - political, economic, cultural or otherwise. And when nations become unstable, bad things tend to happen.
Add shortages of medicine and medical supplies, farming chemicals (fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides) and of course, fuel.
If you aren't growing crops you better be learning a skill that can be traded for food.
-Blast
Electricity and internet....these 2 items go hand in hand for the 2 key infrastructure items. Loss of either or both on a widespread basis for 3 or more days will be very bad. Not quite the missing 3 meals advice in terms of anarchy but certainly close.
Thanks gang but I'm thinking more of practical examples.
Case in point: famine; we all know about famine in Africa in the 1980s. Another would be state created famine of the USSR in the 1930s or China in the late 1950s.
For political unrest: Brazil right now.
Closest to SHTF would likely be the War in Kosovo in the late 90s and as recapped by Selco.
Point I'm making? We can make a reasonable approximation of what SHTF would look like; just need to increase it by about 1,000 times worse that the examples in all likelihood.
Quote from: Ghost on January 25, 2023, 10:16:41 AMThanks gang but I'm thinking more of practical examples.
Closest to SHTF would likely be the War in Kosovo in the late 90s and as recapped by Selco.
Kosovo would be a good example but if that is what you are looking for then look no farther than Ukraine. That has a modern version of Kosovo and has a lot of lessons to learn. I have not seen too much written about coping with the day to day activity but I expect someone like Selco will recap it soon.
How do we all feel about this subject now?
Looks like war with China is on the not so distant horizon. I won't go into the numerous recent events affecting this.
Nuclear threat from Russia and North Korea.
The WEF trying to control the globe. Via many different means. But agriculterally scares me enough to want to move to a small homestead today. Rather than the couple years from now plan.
Food issues in general. The various poisons in our food, lack of access, it being controlled by only 6 corporations nationwide, price gouging.
The polarization of our country. It seems like everyday I read a new theory on why there "will" be a revolution. Rather than "if" we will.
General panic. It just seems like hysterics rule the day. Rather than calm thought and wise action. Everything is an immediate reaction to this or that. Lets get the sound byte out their sooner than later. Rather than any kind of reflection before making a decision.
Anyway. If I go any further I will stray into politics and religion.
The more I see the above. The more concerned I am for our future. I hate sounding like "that crazy old guy that lives on the corner! ". I always use to think that when I was young. But recent events have made me believe even more steadfastly that something is going to happen.
But whenever I discuss this with my 22 yr old son. Who graduated college with high marks. And is very intelligent and well read. I get this laid back reaction. That concerns me. I guess he has grown up with so much strife in our world. And the ease of access to information that is the internet. Maybe his generation is just at a place where they have learned to be less concerned or it might consume them. Idk.
The US is in collapse. Anyone who tells you different either doesn't know what they are talking about or are in denial.
As it's been said? "It's all over except for the crying."
Adding this: economic collapse. History provides us with two practical examples:
The Weimar Republic after WWI and Zimbabwe.
In either case runaway inflation caused immense hardship and I think the case for Zimbabwe being more pertinent if for no other reason than being closer in terms of history.
In either case the dangers of inflation and devaluation of currency to the point where it's worthless.
Venezuela is another data point for economic meltdown in terms of modern times.
ETA- South Africa is close to economic collapse as well.
Not good all around.
Another thought, nuclear power.
While it's wonderful to think they would all gracefully shut down, that's not likely. If a pandemic wiped out enough of the workers there would be issues.
There are around 5,000 people trained to do this work (give or take) across 92 current reactors. About 54 people per plant... let that one sink in.
As for the the results as it relates to the topic? See Chernobyl.
Well, damn. Hmm, then one of the perks for me of being elderly and beginning to fade is I have some hope of being done and dusted before I'm facing the full-on zombie onslaught event. 😏
Quote from: Ghost on February 20, 2023, 03:15:27 PMAnother thought, nuclear power.
While it's wonderful to think they would all gracefully shut down, that's not likely. If a pandemic wiped out enough of the workers there would be issues.
There are around 5,000 people trained to do this work (give or take) across 92 current reactors. About 54 people per plant... let that one sink in.
As for the the results as it relates to the topic? See Chernobyl.
Just watch the nuclear power plant stuff on the first link then back out and click the next link, and so on. these are all points in the same video specific to nuclear power plants.
https://youtu.be/_BZMNZ8JoBw?t=79
https://youtu.be/_BZMNZ8JoBw?t=587
https://youtu.be/_BZMNZ8JoBw?t=1001
https://youtu.be/_BZMNZ8JoBw?t=2394
This scenario is based on no one maintaining the facility.
Revisiting this.
Consider if you will this is what we will be dealing with. Sure there will be some truly, truly dangerous people out there but more than likely?
This: https://youtu.be/LGMsYSsydew?si=bGp08I1NsblOc-00
We might beat ourselves up about aging or needing to lose some pounds. But nothing compares to the sheer amount of stupidity of the vast majority of humanity.
George Carlin said it best:
QuoteThink of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
I might not have every gap closed or all the knowledge that I feel I need but I've at least camped, gone hunting, fishing etc enough to like my chances over 99.9% of these folks.
Quote from: Ghost on October 24, 2024, 12:30:08 PMRevisiting this.
Consider if you will this is what we will be dealing with. Sure there will be some truly, truly dangerous people out there but more than likely?
This: https://youtu.be/LGMsYSsydew?si=bGp08I1NsblOc-00
We might beat ourselves up about aging or needing to lose some pounds. But nothing compares to the sheer amount of stupidity of the vast majority of humanity.
George Carlin said it best:
QuoteThink of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
I might not have every gap closed or all the knowledge that I feel I need but I've at least camped, gone hunting, fishing etc enough to like my chances over 99.9% of these folks.
As someone that lives in New Hampshire AND in one of the most scenic parts of the state (aka; The Great North Woods), I have seen this bullshit up close and personal.
The last three weeks have been
intense up here.
I work at a grocery store....it also carries supplies for camps and hikers.
People buying firewood (6.99 for a bundle of 5 to 7 chunks of firewood, not even enough to see you through one night. Kindling 7.99 a bundle). Propane (filled tanks 89.99 each, refills 49.99)
ATV or trail maps are $15.
But we have seen the "hikers" in slippers and pajama pants, no jackets, no backpacks or supplies. They all seem to think a hike up a local trail is an easy stroll. Ummmm...no.
And the "hunters" coming up here for grouse, partridge, etc. Yeah, they are dressed for the field, but after a long day, they want to go get something to eat.
Every restaurant in town stops service at 8 pm. We close at 8:30 pm.
Out of towners are incredulous when they find out that a small rural community basically rolls up it's sidewalks at sunset, lol!
What's wild to me right now is that the leaf changes weren't even that pretty this year and we still got massive crowds.