War in Ukraine

[fáwë]

Apparently the missiles were Ukrainian anti air missiles. If that is the case it is reassuring news. As a European it is terrifying to think the escalation of the war 

[Ghost]

Apparently the missiles were Ukrainian anti air missiles. If that is the case it is reassuring news. As a European it is terrifying to think the escalation of the war 

Sorry to say this... escalation is only a matter of time imo.

[RoneKiln]

Everything I'm seeing has me strongly leaning towards it being a Russian missile but publicly calling it a Ukrainean S-300 missile helps dodge a quagmire.

The sudden huge wave of additional support announced by so many NATO countries is a clear enough response to Russia.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Everything I'm seeing has me strongly leaning towards it being a Russian missile but publicly calling it a Ukrainean S-300 missile helps dodge a quagmire.

It's a pretty clever play, if you think about it.

Consider the situation Russia finds itself in.  Their invasion is not going so well.  Their "special military operation" is bleeding them dry, economically and militarily.  The smart play is to get out, but Putin has to save face if he's going to survive a withdrawal.  Framing the retreat as being in a conflict with NATO, rather than just Ukraine, would give him that out.  A NATO escalation because of Russian missiles killing citizens of a NATO member state would give him the excuse he needs to save face, and so denying that it was a Russian missile (whether it was or not) then leaves him in a difficult situation -- he can't go and say "no, that was no accident, we deliberately targeted Poland."   

[Anianna]

Poland may not have dodged that missile, but NATO dodged a bullet.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

to Ukraine's
Freedom Fighters

with their


Heart of Courage

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

Associated Press
Cold and dark: Kyiv readies for 'worst winter of our lives'

"When the power is out, as it so often is, the high-rise apartment overlooking Ukraine's war-torn capital feels like a deathtrap. No lights, no water, no way to cook food. And no elevator by which to escape from the 21st floor should a Russian missile strike. Even when electricity comes back, it's never on for long.

"Russian strikes are plunging Ukraine into the Stone Age," says Anastasia Pyrozhenko. In a recent 24-hour spell, her high-rise only had power for half an hour.

"We left our apartment for our parents' place and are preparing for the worst winter of our lives," said the 25-year-old.

[aikorob]

SIL and family live in the northern suburbs of Odesa................intermittent power for past few days. Their apartment is on 16th floor (I think), so life has pretty well halted.
MIL is near downtown, and hasn't had many problems

[majorhavoc]

Ukraine to create thousands of islands of invincibility

With Ukraine's energy grid suffering "colossal" damage after waves of Russian missile attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced a national drive to prepare thousands of makeshift centers to provide basic services in the event of prolonged blackouts.
"If massive Russian strikes take place again and if there is an understanding that the electricity supply cannot be restored within hours, the work of 'Points of Invincibility' will be activated," he told the nation in his nightly address on Tuesday.
"All basic services will be there," he said, including electricity, mobile communications, internet access, heat, water, and first-aid supplies.

Beyond a really questionable name (why not just call them "Hey Putin, we dare ya to send a missile this way. We dare ya!"), these centers of micro-infrastructure are a really interesting concept. I hope to learn some of the technical details because there's probably some learnings here for preppers interested in building resiliency in their local communities.

Admin edited to fix formatting

[SCBrian]

"All basic services will be there," he said, including electricity, mobile communications, internet access, heat, water, and first-aid supplies.

Beyond a really questionable name (why not just call them "Hey Putin, we dare ya to send a missile this way. We dare ya!"), these centers of micro-infrastructure are a really interesting concept. I hope to learn some of the technical details because there's probably some learnings here for preppers interested in building resiliency in their local communities.

Suspect, it'll be an heavy truck with water, a good genny, and a mobile cell tower/sat uplink...  I think look at what NT2C did for his communications truck, and upscale it.
They may be better served by scattering the pieces to mesh networks (I.e, "Arab Spring") than making one central hard point... Though if you build it as a red cross shelter, Putin would have some 'splaining to do for hitting it...

[Anianna]

"All basic services will be there," he said, including electricity, mobile communications, internet access, heat, water, and first-aid supplies.

Beyond a really questionable name (why not just call them "Hey Putin, we dare ya to send a missile this way. We dare ya!"), these centers of micro-infrastructure are a really interesting concept. I hope to learn some of the technical details because there's probably some learnings here for preppers interested in building resiliency in their local communities.

Suspect, it'll be an heavy truck with water, a good genny, and a mobile cell tower/sat uplink...  I think look at what NT2C did for his communications truck, and upscale it.
They may be better served by scattering the pieces to mesh networks (I.e, "Arab Spring") than making one central hard point... Though if you build it as a red cross shelter, Putin would have some 'splaining to do for hitting it...

I saw on the news a video of what appears to be them building small electrical stations in place.  I'll see if I can find a clip to share.

Putin's already been hitting shelters (probably not designated Red Cross, but definitely marked as shelters), hospitals, schools, and residential areas and he doesn't give a rat's patootey about 'splaining anything.   

ETA: The clip was on NBC Nightly News, which doesn't share until a day or two later if I understand correctly and I'm not seeing it anywhere else to verify if that is what they were showing.  I'll try to check back in a day or two and review it again. 

[majorhavoc]

Thanks Anianna. Would appreciate you posting that NBC video link in a few days if you happen to remember.

Came across this interesting site while trying to get more information on this micro-infrastructure initiative.

Visit Ukraine

It actually contains some useful articles. Helpful prepping related topics that are somehow both charming and sobering in the way they reveal what these people are dealing with right now:

• Military Winter: tourist life hacks to avoid freezing and starving in your apartment.
• Firewood from the state: how to get firewood for free
• Power Outage Schedule: where to check for upcoming outages in your region
• Insulation of houses and strategic stocks: how to properly prepare for winter

It also contains a link if you, you know, want to donate to help keep some Ukrainian babushka alive in her freezing, unlit apartment this winter ...

[EBuff75]

I don't know if any of these videos have been posted here before, but Max Brooks started a podcast this year following the Ukraine invasion.  In the first video, he states that this was something he'd been thinking about for a while, and this was just the event which got him to finally begin. His goal is to break down complex topics for easier consumption.

Through his work with the Modern War Institute at West Point, he brings in a number of professionals to talk about survival, misinformation, urban warfare, battlefield first aid, and more.  He generally stays out of politics (other than being anti-Putin), although there are topics which do discuss some specific aspects. 

Overall, these are some very good videos - I wish that they were longer so that they could get into even more detail!  A few of my favorites (so far) were his talks with Les Stroud about urban survival, the Clint Watts discussion about misinformation / disinformation / propaganda (this was a 2-parter and is probably the most interesting to me so far), and how Ukraine's success hasn't been a surprise to a Green Beret colonel who helped train them.

Here is the full list of videos:  https://www.youtube.com/@maxbrooksbreaksdown/videos

[aikorob]

gonna leave this here---mods, move if you see fit
"An International Legionnaire's Guide to Useful and Useless Kit"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DANTP2n8x3c

[EBuff75]

I'm confused as to what has been going on since February, if the military hasn't "taken action" yet?... 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday that Ukraine must fulfil Moscow's proposals regarding their "new territories" — or the Russian military would take action, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-12-27-22/h_daa3cdc8a1f32be7040ace152628afdf

[majorhavoc]

I'm confused as to what has been going on since February, if the military hasn't "taken action" yet?... 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday that Ukraine must fulfil Moscow's proposals regarding their "new territories" — or the Russian military would take action, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-12-27-22/h_daa3cdc8a1f32be7040ace152628afdf

All part of the same gaslighting that has Russia insisting Ukraine can end this conflict any time it wants simply by ceasing aggression against sovereign Russian territories - i.e. the very territories Russia illegally annexed during it's "de-nazification" of Ukraine.

[majorhavoc]

Sorry for the length of this post.  But it's a slow day at work and this is something I think more people need to say out loud. If my fellow mods think this crosses a line with the forum rules, just say the word - I'll delete it immediately. 

I'm becoming less and less enchanted with this notion that we can't provide Ukraine with more powerful offensive weapons because Ukraine might use them to strike targets deep inside Russia.  That seems increasingly nonsensical as Russia continually strikes targets deep inside Ukraine.

I understand the argument about escalating the conflict.  But one has to ask if that point isn't overblown.  For starters, Russia already has its hands full trying to subdue a second rate military right on its own border. Does anyone think Russia actually believes it can take on all of Europe and the US?

The standard response is 'don't back Putin into a corner or he might resort to nuclear weapons'.  How realistic is that? Russia would immediately lose the tenuous support it has from China and India. And I can't believe that if things ever looked that serious we couldn't easily send a compelling 'signal' to Iran that it would most definitely be in their existential interest to sit this one out.

I guess the other question the West needs to ask itself is: do we want Ukraine to survive as a democracy or not? Because in spite of the heroic and f*cking brilliant way the Ukrainians have used the weapons they have at their disposal, Russia still occupies 20% of their country. The war has devolved into a bloody stalemate in which Russia seems content to lob wave after wave of missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities, gleefully slaughtering civilians and inflicting untold misery on those who manage to survive.

The one thing Putin has said publicly that I actually believe is Russia is a patient country and is in no way deterred by the current battlefield status quo. They will expend unlimited Russian blood and treasure to achieve their goals. And it won't come to that in any case because the West will lose its resolve long before Russia does.

Which is why the West needs to man up and harden its resolve now before exasperated voters in western democracies demand their leaders back down in the name of cheap energy and abundant consumer goods.  Putin is cruel and determined. But he's not insane. The US and Russia have been fighting proxy wars for decades now - both sides know how this game is played. No one went nuclear when Soviet fighter pilots were shooting down American planes over Korea and Vietnam. No one went nuclear when we were helping the Mujahideen slaughter Soviet soldiers in pre-Taliban Afghanistan.  Or when Russia was paying bounties for dead Americans in that same country 35 years later.

No one is going nuclear if we give Ukraine the tools to truly change the battlefield dynamic. But it would cause Putin to reconsider his calculations.  Or convince someone else in the Kremlin to do that for him.

[The Twizzler]

Apparently the US is considering sending some of the older M2-Bradleys to Ukraine. They will have tow launchers but it's the old ones with Tow 1's. It seems Ukraine is really desperate for IFV's they have a lot of APC's mostly M1113s and Russian stuff. It seems they are making Frankenstein IFV's but fitting old/obsolete/ random turrets to the tops of these vehicles.
Like this MBPT with an old 85mm field gun welded on top

[EBuff75]

It appears that the Russian military hasn't seen 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier', otherwise they'd have known not to put the ammo cache next to the barracks:  https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-1-2-23/h_5c2179bae75b6e96b0a655a557fe9c97

This video is from last summer, but it's a good visual for how big of a kaboom an ammo dump makes when you hit it.  So far I haven't been able to find any footage of this latest strike, but I imagine it was a similar explosion.

[majorhavoc]

It appears that the Russian military hasn't seen 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier', otherwise they'd have known not to put the ammo cache next to the barracks:  https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-1-2-23/h_5c2179bae75b6e96b0a655a557fe9c97

This video is from last summer, but it's a good visual for how big of a kaboom an ammo dump makes when you hit it.  So far I haven't been able to find any footage of this latest strike, but I imagine it was a similar explosion.

Another example of Russia's superior military doctrine.