Author Topic: La Palma Volcano  (Read 353 times)

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Offline Lambykins

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"But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career, skills that make me a nightmare for people like you." Taken

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Offline Blast

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Re: La Palma Volcano
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2021, 10:41:59 PM »
Yeah, the tsunami potential is pretty much right in line with 2020/2021.
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Offline sheddi

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Re: La Palma Volcano
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2021, 12:34:04 AM »
Anyone else following this?
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141970/La-Palma-volcano-eruption-update-new-eruptive-fissure-opens-followed-by-strong-magnitude-38-quake.html
It's one of the leading stories on the news over here, mostly for what might happen rather than anything that already has happened. The authorities on La Palma have done a pretty good job so far of evacuating people at risk and I don't think there have been any injuries, only property damage.

I'm reminded of the geology I learned at school 30 years ago, and the differences between runny pahoehoe lava and lumpy 'a'a lava. This looks like the lumpy stuff:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58620555


Offline Lambykins

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Re: La Palma Volcano
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2021, 06:31:59 AM »
I remember watching a disaster documentary around 10 years ago. One of those "Disasters waiting to happen" kinda things.
La Palma got it's own segment of the show. A lot of geologists were consulted and all of them were concerned.
Yellowstone was also one of the disasters discussed and the geologists consulted mainly laughed it off when asked if it could happen in the next 100 years.
But La Palma, they all got serious when La Palma came up.  The majority felt the slide would be triggered in the next 20 years and if the volcano blew, sooner.
I guess it's sooner.
Youtube has a lot of videos showing scientists estimations of what could happen if the slide lets go. Go take a gander at some of them (too many to link, just search La Palma). Scary stuff.
Here's one from 2012:
« Last Edit: September 21, 2021, 06:48:05 AM by Lambykins »
"But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career, skills that make me a nightmare for people like you." Taken

"There is no such thing as a fair fight. Fight dirty EVERY time. Dirty fighters win, fair fighters lose. Every fight is a fight for your life. Fight to win. Fight dirty." My dad

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Offline Blast

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Re: La Palma Volcano
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2021, 08:28:42 AM »
Good video, Lambykins. One thing it indirectly shows is this would affect dozens of countries which leads to the questions, ""From where would help come, and to who?" It seems like a disaster that would leave a lot of people in many different countries responsible for their own rescue and survival...though I'm sure China would be happy to help, for a price.
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Offline Raptor

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Re: La Palma Volcano
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2021, 01:59:02 PM »
As modeled this event would devastate with flood waters ~ 1+ miles inland every US east coast city from Maine to Key West, FL.
(Boston, NYC, DC, Miami to name few)

All rivers that empty into the ocean would see to some extent the wave travel upriver.

The GOM cities from Tampa,FL to the Panama Canal would likewise see significant damage. All US ports on the east coast and GOM would be out of service to varying degrees.

In the GOM A 10 meter wave would be simply the initial impact subsequent waves would also hit some as high and most quite damaging. See the videos of tsumani waves hitting Japan.

In Europe the UK coastal cities (like London) would feel the impact, French ports would be devastated, Holland and Denmark would also see significant damage.

Most of the Caribbean Islands would be inundated except for the mountainous areas of PR, Cuba, DR, Jamaica.

Africa and S America port cities would be hard hit also.

It appears as though the key issue is the direction of the land slide since that directs the water's initial impulse.

Who could help? Heartland USA. The west Coast of the US would not be able to assist much for various reasons. Australia, NZ, PRC, Russia, India, Middle East and most of Asia would be not only unscathed but actually put in a great position in terms of power. So yes good luck to all of us if this happens as modeled.



I'm reminded of the geology I learned at school 30 years ago, and the differences between runny pahoehoe lava and lumpy 'a'a lava. This looks like the lumpy stuff:


The good news about the lumpy stuff is that it is slow, so there should be time to GTFO. The bad news is that the only thing you can do is GTFO of its way.



To be clear not everyone agrees with the study that formed these models.

That said all of the agreement and disagreement is opinion. No one knows with certainty.

My opinion is that this mega tsunami like the Yellowstone eruption falls with the realm of possibility but outside of the realm of prevention. If/when either event happens it will do so with little notice and you will not have the ability to do anything in advance. In short you have use this as a question about your preps and as part of a "what if" SWOT analysis.
 
https://www.newsweek.com/will-la-palma-volcano-cause-tsunami-mega-tsunami-canary-islands-spain-eruption-warning-1630666

Quote
Subsequent studies published after the 2001 research diminished the threat expressed in the paper or dismissed it entirely. In a study published the following year, George Pararas-Carayannis, editor of the journal Science of Tsunami Hazards: wrote: "The threat of mega tsunami generation from collapses of oceanic island stratovolcanoes has been greatly overstated. No mega-tsunamis can be expected."

In the 2002 paper, Pararas-Carayannis suggested that several incorrect assumptions in the modeling of volcano eruptions and slope failures and their link to tsunamis led to overestimates of the "far-field effects" of the natural disasters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre_Vieja_tsunami_hazard#Probability

Personally I prefer the opinions of the 2002 paper but I also prefer to plan for the original research. YMMV
« Last Edit: September 21, 2021, 02:21:50 PM by Raptor »
I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers.

As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

Offline TACAIR

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Re: La Palma Volcano
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2021, 06:04:21 PM »
I Oct, another new vent opened.  The thing just keeps getting bigger...
I'd much rather be a disappointed pessimist than a horrified optimist....

My fiction work is fond here:
https://www.amazon.com/D-K-Richardson/e/B005JT4QP2/ref=dp_byline_cont_ebooks_1

Offline Lambykins

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Re: La Palma Volcano
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2021, 12:44:57 PM »
I Oct, another new vent opened.  The thing just keeps getting bigger...
Not good news...  :eek1:
"But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career, skills that make me a nightmare for people like you." Taken

"There is no such thing as a fair fight. Fight dirty EVERY time. Dirty fighters win, fair fighters lose. Every fight is a fight for your life. Fight to win. Fight dirty." My dad

"Am I dangerous? Ask any of my surviving exes..." Me

Offline TACAIR

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Re: La Palma Volcano
« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2021, 04:04:22 PM »
I'd much rather be a disappointed pessimist than a horrified optimist....

My fiction work is fond here:
https://www.amazon.com/D-K-Richardson/e/B005JT4QP2/ref=dp_byline_cont_ebooks_1

 

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