War in Ukraine

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Russia has lost 87% of the ground troops it had before its war on Ukraine, and two thirds of its tanks: CNN (msn.com) 

Nearly two years on, Russia has essentially lost an entire army and air force of worth of men and equipment in the Ukraine and achieved nothing. To put it to scale they have taken more casualties than the entire active military of the UK, Canada and South Africa combined. Also they have lost more tanks and armored vehicles than all of those countries combined (although most were not that modern). They have lost more combat aircraft than in the entire Air Force of France. Including about half an air wing's worth of modern fighter aircraft (SU30/34/35).

The destruction in the occupied territories is near total in most places.

[EBuff75]

I saw these numbers coming out in the last few days and they're just staggering.  The brain drain from taking these sort of losses is immense as well.  It becomes a death spiral, where you're losing more and more experienced people, which means that they're unable to help train new recruits, who then arrive even less trained than those before them, etc, etc.

Russia is getting so desperate for troops that they're also starting to send injured and disabled soldiers back into battle. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sending-injured-disabled-soldiers-back-front-lines-fight-ukraine-2023-12

[majorhavoc]

Putin still has that Great Patriotic War WW2 attitude that Russian soldiers are like newly manufactured T-34 tanks sent into battle without bothering to even paint them to ward off rust. A fungible and nearly inexhaustible resource. They're expected to perish and are thus used accordingly. 

I wonder how many younger Russians share that same attitude towards human life.

[Z.O.R.G.]

Putin still has that Great Patriotic War WW2 attitude that Russian soldiers are like newly manufactured T-34 tanks sent into battle without bothering to even paint them to ward off rust. A fungible and nearly inexhaustible resource. They're expected to perish and are thus used accordingly.

I wonder how many younger Russians share that same attitude towards human life.

The battle of Stalingrad was won by throwing fresh meet into the grinder.  Then the USSR was fighting for its existence and had resources coming in for free.  Now the soldiers have to question what they're fighting for and I'm sure China and Iran are not donating to the cause.  doesn't spell for a great outcome.

[echo83]

It's being reported that 54% of Russian casualties involve an amputation of some type.  Not only will that have a long-term effect on the country (mainly in long-term medical care costs), but it also limits the ability of injured soldiers to return to active duty after recovery.  It also makes me wonder if this is a result of poor medical facilities on the front lines which are unable to provide less drastic care for limb injuries.

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-glaring-issue-more-161239369.html

I'm still wrapping my head around this statistic, let alone the current casualty rate. There's no way these soldiers are getting the care they need when and if they come home. 

How do the Russians have anyone left to send? How many of the remaining population are even fit for military service or conscription? How can they sustain another couple years of this?

[EBuff75]

It's being reported that 54% of Russian casualties involve an amputation of some type.  Not only will that have a long-term effect on the country (mainly in long-term medical care costs), but it also limits the ability of injured soldiers to return to active duty after recovery.  It also makes me wonder if this is a result of poor medical facilities on the front lines which are unable to provide less drastic care for limb injuries.

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-glaring-issue-more-161239369.html

I'm still wrapping my head around this statistic, let alone the current casualty rate. There's no way these soldiers are getting the care they need when and if they come home.

How do the Russians have anyone left to send? How many of the remaining population are even fit for military service or conscription? How can they sustain another couple years of this?

Russia's demographics weren't good to begin with.  Their birthrate was around 1.5 children per woman, where 2.1 is the replacement rate.  On top of that, the life expectancy for men was only 64 years (I've seen some estimates as low as 59) before the war (for women it's 75).  Deaths and injuries (both physical and mental) among the younger populace (i.e. those who would normally be having kids) is likely to further depress the birth rate, as is the ongoing uncertainty about the future (people don't want to have kids if they don't think they can afford them and/or that the future will be at all decent). 

https://www.inss.org.il/publication/russia-demographic/

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/02/consequences-of-the-war-in-ukraine-a-bleak-outlook.html

Where are they getting people from?  Well, I'd already posted a link about how they're sending injured and disabled soldiers back to the front, but they're continuing to recruit from their prisons and from ethnic minorities.  They've also upped the age for conscription to allow older enlistees. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/23/russia-partial-military-mobilization-ethnic-minorities/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67175566

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-lawmakers-vote-raise-conscription-age-limit-30-2023-07-25/

One other complication for them is the number of fighting-aged people (primarily men) who fled the country, either at the start of the war or when they announced their conscription drives.  Some of those have returned, but that has also had an impact on the available pool of manpower. 

In short, they're sacrificing the future of the country, in an attempt to improve the future of the country.  Seems like a poor strategy to me.

[majorhavoc]

Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine's East as Kyiv's Troops Struggle
Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine's East as Kyiv's Troops Struggle

If our international partners moved faster, we would have kicked their ass in the first three or four months so hard that we would have gotten over it already. We'd be sowing fields and raising children," said the soldier, who went by the call sign Jaeger, in keeping with military protocol. "We'd be sending bread to Europe. But it's been two years already.

Not posting this as any kind of comment on why Western support is dwindling.  It is what it is.  Just noting the very real and predictable consequences.  And exactly what Putin was confident would happen - he's playing the West like a well-tuned fiddle.  Russian aggression can be fought on the eastern steppes of Ukraine now, or somewhere else in Europe tomorrow. 

Looks to be another shitty winter for these freedom-loving people.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine's East as Kyiv's Troops Struggle
Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine's East as Kyiv's Troops Struggle

If our international partners moved faster, we would have kicked their ass in the first three or four months so hard that we would have gotten over it already. We'd be sowing fields and raising children," said the soldier, who went by the call sign Jaeger, in keeping with military protocol. "We'd be sending bread to Europe. But it's been two years already.

Not posting this as any kind of comment on why Western support is dwindling.  It is what it is.  Just noting the very real and predictable consequences.  And exactly what Putin was confident would happen - he's playing the West like a well-tuned fiddle.  Russian aggression can be fought on the eastern steppes of Ukraine now, or somewhere else in Europe tomorrow. 

Looks to be another shitty winter for these freedom-loving people.

I think they moved as fast as they dared to avoid a large nuclear war with Russia.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Ukraine has no long range fires which means that they can't disrupt logistics effectively or prevent troops movements. No matter how bad Russia sucks at those things, they can still do them. Without fighter craft, Russia can continue to stay at stand off range and drop munitions on the Ukraine who can do little to stop it. So basically the US gave them what they needed to fight to a stalemate.

Woah, you don't say.

Zelenskyy reveals what could have changed course of Russia's war in Ukraine (msn.com)
Zelenskyy reveals what could have changed course of Russia's war in Ukraine (msn.com)

[majorhavoc]

I don't even need to read that article to know that Zelenskyy must be talking about how if we'd just given him F-16s, HIMARS, ATACS, Patriots, Bradleys and Abrams from the get-go, neither Ukraine nor the West would be in the position we find ourselves in now. 

[digression warning] While we were at it, why couldn't we just have given him all our "obsolete" and "redundant" A-10 attack aircraft that we're apparently so keen to get rid of?  I'm thinking Zelenskyy might have found some use for them. Like maybe the exact use the A-10 was literally designed for? [/digression warning]

But of course, we were very responsibly trying not to cross a Russian redline that might escalate the conflict.  Not that Putin was troubling himself about crossing any redline with the West.  I'll say no more lest I run afoul of forum rules.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

That's the fun part: when all you care about is funneling warm bodies to the front lines, any warm body will do.

It's not sustainable, but Putin can't worry about that now -- if he withdraws, he's kaput.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

I don't even need to read that article to know that Zelenskyy must be talking about how if we'd just given him F-16s, HIMARS, ATACS, Patriots, Bradleys and Abrams from the get-go, neither Ukraine nor the West would be in the position we find ourselves in now. 

[digression warning] While we were at it, why couldn't we just have given him all our "obsolete" and "redundant" A-10 attack aircraft that we're apparently so keen to get rid of?  I'm thinking Zelenskyy might have found some use for them. Like maybe the exact use the A-10 was literally designed for? [/digression warning]

But of course, we were very responsibly trying not to cross a Russian redline that might escalate the conflict.  Not that Putin was troubling himself about crossing any redline with the West.  I'll say no more lest I run afoul of forum rules.

The US leadership talked the Ukraine into a pointless attack last summer. They knew they lacked long range fires so there was no way to effect logistics. An army can fight an indefinitely so long as they are supplied. Now suddenly they are talking about how to cut off Crimea from resupply. No kidding? That was a last year conversation.

Not exactly the first time the US has supported killing for the sake of killing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore

[Uomo Senza Nome]

This came out of left field......

France to send troops to Ukraine if Russia breaks through front lines (msn.com) 

Emmanuel Macron has said he would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine if Vladimir Putin's forces break through the front lines - further raising the risk of NATO forces clashing with Russia's armies. In an interview published today, the French president said the issue of sending troops would 'legitimately' arise if Kyiv and president Volodymyr Zelensky made such a request.

Coupled with this:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/10th-mountain-deploys-europe/

The tea leaves look ripe for a starting a war right around September. For the record, I'd very much like to be wrong about that.

[majorhavoc]

How many nations need to be actively engaged in the same conflict before it's considered a world war, I wonder.

[MacWa77ace]

I'm going to say its not the number of nations actively engaged but the number of countries/regions with active conflict, including open seas.

The 'Korean Police action' had the United Nations involved, and Russia, China, etc. And that was only a Police Action.

  IDK.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

I'm going to say its not the number of nations actively engaged but the number of countries/regions with active conflict, including open seas.

The 'Korean Police action' had the United Nations involved, and Russia, China, etc. And that was only a Police Action.

  IDK.

They called it a police action because the US had allegedly never deployed large numbers of troops to combat in foreign lands without a declaration of war before. This wasn't true of course but the people tend to forget when they are not educated.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

September, huh


This is just so...
I mean...
I really don't understand my species.


fuck




September. Well, something to plan for I guess.

[Zed hunter]

Yes just in time to disrupt that political thing in Nov.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Yes just in time to disrupt that political thing in Nov.

I was looking more at how long it will take Russia to penetrate the front lines. A war in Europe might qualify as an "October Surprise" but I don't think anyone will be surprised.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

As I noted before, destroying the bridge to Crimea will end the war on the Southern front in a few weeks. This has both good and bad implications for both sides but would heavily favor Uke goals.  Russia believes that the US is setting up their new to the Ukes, F16s for a combat mission to drop the bridge. This is probably true if I had to guess. They have said explicitly in the past that this will result in WWIII.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-any-nato-encroachment-crimea-could-lead-world-war-three-2022-06-27/

Now they are stamping the foot and counting to three.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1895677/russia-ww3-retaliation-warning-ukraine-war