War in Ukraine

Started by Moab, February 04, 2022, 09:48:32 PM

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Ever (Zombiepreparation)

Quote from: Raptor on February 24, 2022, 05:50:41 PM
I am genuinely surprised by the ferocity of the attack. I am not surprised by the response of the rest of the world is basically one of resignation.

Just out of curiosity what does the UFOZS hive mind say about these scenarios:

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
My money's on this

DarkAxel

Quote from: Raptor on February 24, 2022, 05:50:41 PM
I am genuinely surprised by the ferocity of the attack. I am not surprised by the response of the rest of the world is basically one of resignation.

Just out of curiosity what does the UFOZS hive mind say about these scenarios:

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
2. Balkan states invaded.
3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states).

...

Balkan or Baltic?

If Baltic, like in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, I don't see it happening. If Russia starts shooting at NATO members then treaties kick in right along with WWIII. Anything less would result in the collapse of NATO, and that's Russia's ultimate goal.

flybynight

"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

mzmc

Quote from: Ever (Zombiepreparation) on February 24, 2022, 10:28:52 PM
Quote from: Raptor on February 24, 2022, 05:50:41 PM
I am genuinely surprised by the ferocity of the attack. I am not surprised by the response of the rest of the world is basically one of resignation.

Just out of curiosity what does the UFOZS hive mind say about these scenarios:

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
My money's on this
I don't know if I would bet on it, but it's not unheard of.
They used the Cuban Missile Crisis to attack India.
I know that was 60 years ago, and Xi isn't Mao, but there is some historic precedent.

Sidenote:
Ukraine is one of China's largest suppliers of agricultural products, grain in particular. If the Chinese don't take this as an opportunity to make a move on Taiwan, they are not going to be particularly happy with Putin.
At least not behind closed doors. Chinese media make the whole thing the fault of NATO, of course, but there's propaganda, and then there's Realpolitk.
May contain traces of derp.

Johan

#44
[quote author=Raptor link=topic=659.msg12944#msg12944

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
2. Balkan states invaded.
3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states).


[/quote]

1. Maybe but not very likely.
( but there was a rumour that Putin promised PRC not to attack until the Olympics was over, and now the  Chinese are taking Putins side saying he was provoked, and maybe it shouldn't be called an attack...)
2. (I assume  you mean the Baltic countrys) Since they are already Nato members, I don't think he's dumb enough... (keeping fingers crossed  :eek1: ) And I wouldn't put it past him to take the island Gotland which would let him dominate the Baltic sea, and we are not a Nato country...
3. Unfortunately I don't think the odds are good, but I am keeping my fingers crossed!!!
4. Not likely.

I regard Putin as an extremely dangerous individual...

REDACTED BY ADMIN

(Sorry mods, I couldn't  help myself.. :smiley_knipoog:)

(THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS)
Firepower...
-Is One Bullet that Hits!!!

NT2C

Any further messages or parts of messages that include politics and/or discussion of illegal activity will cause this thread to be locked and earn the posters a small vacation from the site.

Thread reopened.
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Mr. E. Monkey

Quote from: Raptor on February 24, 2022, 05:50:41 PM
1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
2. Balkan states invaded.
3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states).




1.  As much as I hope not, I am positive that they are waiting to see how the rest of the world responds to Putin's "adventure."  If they feel like they can get away with it, I would not be surprised to see them try.  Further, I know there has been some debate about blocking Russia from SWIFT.  If that were to happen, it could push China to develop an alternative, cause a bit of chaos, and THEN we might see China move on Taiwan.  So will they invade NOW?  No, I don't think so.  Soon?  Potentially, maybe even likely, depending on the next few weeks.  Watch for some major cyberwarfare there in the next few weeks.


2.  No.  Assuming he's able to take Ukraine, he's likely going to be dealing with some nasty insurgencies there for a while.  He'll need assets to hold down the fort before he can try to push into anywhere else.  It would also push more nations to consider military action to stop him.  At best, he could take Moldova, but that is also risky, because while they are not NATO members, they do cooperate quite a bit with the organization, and may well request membership, watching Putin take Ukraine.


Romania and Hungary ARE members of NATO, so he isn't going there.  Yet.  I'll address this in #4.


3.  On their own, no, not likely.  What I could see happening, though, is Ukrainian forces turning into that nasty insurgency.  Putin being Putin, he would most likely use heavy-handed tactics to try to crush them, and the optics of such could provoke a heavier international response.  What I DO think is likely, however, is that Russia will take Kyiv, install a puppet regime, and keep "peacekeeping" forces in Ukraine to prop up said regime, and try to build a case for legitimacy by supporting  the "new Ukrainian government" against "rebel factions."  IF he can manage that, we would likely see the world shrug its collective shoulders, "nothing we can do about it now," and move on, while Putin plans his next target.


4.  Highly, highly unlikely...at this point, at least.  Assuming he takes control of Ukraine, I could see him trying to delegitimize the NATO membership of Balkan, or maybe Baltic states.  Either by supporting creating rebel groups to give him cause for more "peacekeeping missions," cyber warfare to further destabilize and foment unrest, and call for removal of missile defense systems, calling them a casus belli.  But that would all take some time.  And the more blood the Ukrainians can draw, the longer it will take Putin to move on to his next target.  IF they somehow manage to force a ceasefire, I think it's even less likely to see Putin push elsewhere in the near future. 






Putin wants to consolidate his control of Black Sea ports, and land access to those ports.  Holding the Crimea, on its own, isn't enough to solidify that.  At a minimum, he's going to need to hold everything east of the Dnieper.  That would allow him to control pipelines to move oil and gas through Sevastopol, and keep Kyiv and Odessa both within easy reach of Russian special groups rebellious Ukrainian factions, which, wouldn't you know it, are causing trouble in Russian held territory, and he needs to send in more peacekeepers...






Quote from: SMoAF'Tis better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
Quote from: BeowolfDisasters are terrifying, but people are stupid.
Quote from: wee drop o' bushTHE EVIL MONKEY HAS WON THE INTERNETS!  :lol:

flybynight

"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

Raptor

#48
Quote from: DarkAxel on February 25, 2022, 12:52:15 AM
Quote from: Raptor on February 24, 2022, 05:50:41 PM
I am genuinely surprised by the ferocity of the attack. I am not surprised by the response of the rest of the world is basically one of resignation.

Just out of curiosity what does the UFOZS hive mind say about these scenarios:

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
2. Balkan states invaded.
3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states).

...

Balkan or Baltic?

If Baltic, like in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, I don't see it happening. If Russia starts shooting at NATO members then treaties kick in right along with WWIII. Anything less would result in the collapse of NATO, and that's Russia's ultimate goal.


I meant the Balkan Countries (not Baltic). IMO I do not think Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia offer any geographic advantage in the Baltics that Russia does not already have with the Kalingrad Oblast (a.k.a. Königsberg) to make that worth a war with a NATO country. Russia can control the Baltic north and South as it is.

However that is a good point since they have been a historical part of Russia (as has Finland) since 1795'ish. The Russian Czars included the Grand Prince and Prince titles in the many titles that the historic (now extinct) Czar of all the Russias claimed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_II_of_Russia#Titles_and_styles

Russia's historic support of factions in the Balkan states is what bring them to my attention. A warm water port at Odessa still has to go through the Bosporus  straight. A port on the Mediterranean Sea by pass that inconvenience.

A good article on this matter. (Note contains some politics)
https://exit.al/en/2022/02/25/analysis-war-with-russia-and-what-it-means-for-the-western-balkans/


BTW I consider my self good on the subject of geography but I do have problems keeping track of which countries are in NATO. So I attached the map graphic below to help me with the discussion.





 
Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

Raptor

This by its nature must be deemed politics; it is Putin's speech he made to the Russian people on Feb 24, 2022. That said his speech is IMO important for us to read to attempt to understand what he is telling others about the actions in the Ukraine.

I am not going to quote it and ask that no one else quote it and that we stay away from the politics of his statements. This is one of those difficult to present items.

Full disclosure:
I obtained this originally from this site (Kremlin News site) which is now un-accessible (at least to me).
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

However I found this site that seemed to have the word for word translation on it.

Note I do not vouch for the 100% accuracy of the translation nor this secondary site beyond what I have stated above.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/02/24/here-is-the-full-text-of-putins-speech-this-morning-feb-24-2022/
Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

Anianna

Russian military vehicle appeared to deliberately run over civilian vehicle:


https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/t14zuy/russian_military_vehicle_ran_over_a_civilian_car/

Here's another video after that includes citizens working to free the driver, who survived, from the mangled vehicle:


https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/t15d1c/russian_tank_crushing_the_car_ukrainians_trying/
Feed science, not zombies!

Failure is the path of least persistence.

∩(=^_^=)

Anianna

Feed science, not zombies!

Failure is the path of least persistence.

∩(=^_^=)

Mr. E. Monkey

Quote from: Raptor on February 25, 2022, 12:48:49 PM
This by its nature must be deemed politics; it is Putin's speech he made to the Russian people on Feb 24, 2022. That said his speech is IMO important for us to read to attempt to understand what he is telling others about the actions in the Ukraine.

I am not going to quote it and ask that no one else quote it and that we stay away from the politics of his statements. This is one of those difficult to present items.

Full disclosure:
I obtained this originally from this site (Kremlin News site) which is now un-accessible (at least to me).
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

However I found this site that seemed to have the word for word translation on it.

Note I do not vouch for the 100% accuracy of the translation nor this secondary site beyond what I have stated above.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/02/24/here-is-the-full-text-of-putins-speech-this-morning-feb-24-2022/


I will say this as delicately as I can, to try to avoid politics.  Reading that speech, though, had a very similar feel of reading another speech that was given a bit less than a hundred years ago.  I'm afraid if I say any more than that, I'll likely incur the wrath of mods and admins.
Quote from: SMoAF'Tis better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
Quote from: BeowolfDisasters are terrifying, but people are stupid.
Quote from: wee drop o' bushTHE EVIL MONKEY HAS WON THE INTERNETS!  :lol:

Mr. E. Monkey

Quote from: Anianna on February 25, 2022, 01:15:58 PM
Unconfirmed, but Russia may have threatened Sweden and Finland if they join NATO:


https://old.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/t17ejn/this_should_interest_you_all_russia_just/


Putin just wants some living space, that's all.
Quote from: SMoAF'Tis better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
Quote from: BeowolfDisasters are terrifying, but people are stupid.
Quote from: wee drop o' bushTHE EVIL MONKEY HAS WON THE INTERNETS!  :lol:

NT2C

How long until he starts referring to Alaska too as "historically Russian land"?
Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

Current Weather in My AO
Current Tracking Info for My Jeep

12_Gauge_Chimp

Quote from: NT2C on February 25, 2022, 02:12:04 PM
How long until he starts referring to Alaska too as "historically Russian land"?

I give it a week or two.

Mr. E. Monkey

Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on February 25, 2022, 02:15:42 PM
Quote from: NT2C on February 25, 2022, 02:12:04 PM
How long until he starts referring to Alaska too as "historically Russian land"?

I give it a week or two.


Sounds about right.
Quote from: SMoAF'Tis better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
Quote from: BeowolfDisasters are terrifying, but people are stupid.
Quote from: wee drop o' bushTHE EVIL MONKEY HAS WON THE INTERNETS!  :lol:

Raptor

Quote from: Mr. E. Monkey on February 25, 2022, 02:17:12 PM
Quote from: 12_Gauge_Chimp on February 25, 2022, 02:15:42 PM
Quote from: NT2C on February 25, 2022, 02:12:04 PM
How long until he starts referring to Alaska too as "historically Russian land"?

I give it a week or two.


Sounds about right.

There is bound to be a lot of rhetoric in the next few days, weeks & months.

Also expect a lot of posturing and a lot spin control especially from the "pols" who look now weak and Chamberlin'ish.

 
Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

DarkAxel

Quote from: Raptor on February 25, 2022, 12:06:53 PM
Quote from: DarkAxel on February 25, 2022, 12:52:15 AM
Quote from: Raptor on February 24, 2022, 05:50:41 PM
I am genuinely surprised by the ferocity of the attack. I am not surprised by the response of the rest of the world is basically one of resignation.

Just out of curiosity what does the UFOZS hive mind say about these scenarios:

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
2. Balkan states invaded.
3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states).

...

Balkan or Baltic?

If Baltic, like in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, I don't see it happening. If Russia starts shooting at NATO members then treaties kick in right along with WWIII. Anything less would result in the collapse of NATO, and that's Russia's ultimate goal.


I meant the Balkan Countries (not Baltic). IMO I do not think Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia offer any geographic advantage in the Baltics that Russia does not already have with the Kalingrad Oblast (a.k.a. Königsberg) to make that worth a war with a NATO country. Russia can control the Baltic north and South as it is.

However that is a good point since they have been a historical part of Russia (as has Finland) since 1795'ish. The Russian Czars included the Grand Prince and Prince titles in the many titles that the historic (now extinct) Czar of all the Russias claimed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_II_of_Russia#Titles_and_styles

Russia's historic support of factions in the Balkan states is what bring them to my attention. A warm water port at Odessa still has to go through the Bosporus  straight. A port on the Mediterranean Sea by pass that inconvenience.

A good article on this matter. (Note contains some politics)
https://exit.al/en/2022/02/25/analysis-war-with-russia-and-what-it-means-for-the-western-balkans/


BTW I consider my self good on the subject of geography but I do have problems keeping track of which countries are in NATO. So I attached the map graphic below to help me with the discussion.


In that case, I don't really see Russia making any moves in the Balkans in the near-term, nor anywhere else, really. The Russian Army might be huge, but most of it is obsolete Soviet-era equipment. Putin's got his most effective forces dealing with Ukraine right now, and he's likely to have them busy there for quite some time if he's planning on putting a friendly regime in power when the invasion is over. Either way I don't see Ukraine holding out long enough to get a cease-fire. Kinda hard to believe Ukraine once had one of the largest and most powerful armies in the world. Bet they wished they hadn't given up those old Soviet nukes now. Ukraine's only real hope is in insurgent-style war.

Will China invade Taiwan? Maybe. The cost of letting Russia invade Ukraine with little to no action on NATO's part certainly does include emboldening other nations and groups that want to change the status quo. I do know the US had been investing a lot of diplomatic effort and spending a lot of political capital in the region, along with a healthy dose of military planning. My opinion is China won't move openly, not yet. An amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait would take a lot more logistical effort to sustain than the current Russian land invasion, and I just don't think China has it yet. I also think that China plans to attempt to take Taiwan when it is ready, regardless of what Russia does.



Something I noticed. Been seeing a lot of modern body armor and optics on new Russian rifles in the footage coming out of there. Nightvision gear, too. Looks like the average Russian trooper is wearing and carrying new Everything. Putin has spent a lot of money modernizing his infantry, and it shows.


Johan

Quote from: Anianna on February 25, 2022, 01:15:58 PM
Unconfirmed, but Russia may have threatened Sweden and Finland if they join NATO:


https://old.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/t17ejn/this_should_interest_you_all_russia_just/

Yep, they did....
I don't  have a link, but a video clip was on the news..
Some Kremlin spokesperson made the threat..
Anyway, our minister if state basically told them to F*** OFF and that we manage our security  policy as we see fit... :smiley_devil:
Firepower...
-Is One Bullet that Hits!!!

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