War in Ukraine

[aikorob]

Reports are spotty....................
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795
airports seem to be taking the most hits
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/president-vladimir-putin-authorises-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-explosions-heard-in-kyiv/news-story/b4b8640ef05e2974d2dea98c95755241

Mrs. hasn't been able to contact her family.................internet and phones are down in Odessa 

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

Reports are spotty....................
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795
airports seem to be taking the most hits
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/president-vladimir-putin-authorises-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-explosions-heard-in-kyiv/news-story/b4b8640ef05e2974d2dea98c95755241

Mrs. hasn't been able to contact her family.................internet and phones are down in Odessa 

yeah

(my best to you and your family's efforts right now)

[majorhavoc]

Reports are spotty....................
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795
airports seem to be taking the most hits
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/president-vladimir-putin-authorises-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-explosions-heard-in-kyiv/news-story/b4b8640ef05e2974d2dea98c95755241

Mrs. hasn't been able to contact her family.................internet and phones are down in Odessa 

yeah

(my best to you and your family's efforts right now)

Hang in there Aikorob.  Your wife and her family are in our thoughts. 

[wee drop o bush]

Reports are spotty....................
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795
airports seem to be taking the most hits
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/president-vladimir-putin-authorises-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-explosions-heard-in-kyiv/news-story/b4b8640ef05e2974d2dea98c95755241

Mrs. hasn't been able to contact her family.................internet and phones are down in Odessa 

I'm sorry, I hope they're all ok. The reports on BBC News are awful.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

So many people are going to die in the coming hours and days.  Many of them innocents.   

I have no words ...

I have words, but I think the admins would smack me if I used any of them.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Mrs. hasn't been able to contact her family.................internet and phones are down in Odessa 

   I'm sorry.  Hoping they stay safe.

[aikorob]

she finally was able to skype mom and sister around 1 AM (7 AM Odessa time)
all were OK. Both reported hearing explosions from direction of airport ---none reported on port facilities

3 prongs of attack reported---out of Crimea, from Russia, through Belarus
capture of Odessa would give Putin a large 12 month port with an excellent rail network

[flybynight]

https://youtu.be/k1TQ5_e27L4

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

So many people are going to die in the coming hours and days.  Many of them innocents.   

I have no words ...

I have words, but I think the admins would smack me if I used any of them.

I've got words as well, but they're not suitable for UFoZS or other polite company.

Let's just say I'd make R. Lee Ermey and Quentin Tarantino blush.

[Optimist]

This is awful.

Looks like a lot of people are in a tough situation of having to decide whether to evacuate and risk being stuck in a traffic jam at about the worst possible time, or sheltering in place where they know things are going to get really bad and dangerous but at least they are not traveling in the open.

she finally was able to skype mom and sister around 1 AM (7 AM Odessa time)
all were OK. Both reported hearing explosions from direction of airport ---none reported on port facilities

That is good news, I hope they stay safe!

[Raptor]

I am genuinely surprised by the ferocity of the attack. I am not surprised by the response of the rest of the world is basically one of resignation.

Just out of curiosity what does the UFOZS hive mind say about these scenarios:

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
2. Balkan states invaded.
3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states).

BTW the US financial markets are actually up today. 

All the markets defecated early on but then staged a rally. Oil is down from the high.

Business as usual...

[majorhavoc]

Just out of curiosity what does the UFOZS hive mind say about these scenarios:

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan.   
2. Balkan states invaded. 
3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states). 

1. Assuming PRC feels its forces are up to the task, and the west continues to offer a tepid response to Russian aggression, this would actually be a good time.  Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is not formally recognized as an independent state by the vast majority of nations.  If we won't mount a direct defense of an independent western democracy (in Europe, no less!), we're sure as hell not going to risk full scale war over China's colorable claim to territory on the other side of the planet, especially one whose exact diplomatic status has long been in limbo.  And China's economy is far more intertwined with those of western nations than Russia's.  If Mr. and Mrs. Middle America can't buy their $25 toaster oven at Walmart, there's going to be hell to pay.  And don't even get me started on lithium or rare earth minerals.  But it remains a question mark if the PLA's land, sea and air forces are up to the task.  Launching a seaborne invasion against a large and well-armed island country is a far, far different proposition than rolling tanks straight across your own borders.  In any case, if the PLA isn't ready now, it sure as hell will be in another 5-10 years.  I see this scenario as not a question of if, but when.

2. Putin does seem to want to restore Pax Russia.  But he won't seize the Balkans until he sees how the west responds to Ukraine.

3. Unfortunately, not likely.  A few hundred Stingers and Javelins just aren't going to carry the day.

4. Not a chance.

[NT2C]

she finally was able to skype mom and sister around 1 AM (7 AM Odessa time)
all were OK. Both reported hearing explosions from direction of airport ---none reported on port facilities

3 prongs of attack reported---out of Crimea, from Russia, through Belarus
capture of Odessa would give Putin a large 12 month port with an excellent rail network

Capture Odessa and I would hope that it gets mined to deny them use of the port.  Of course, there's slim chance of that happening.

[NT2C]

I am genuinely surprised by the ferocity of the attack. I am not surprised by the response of the rest of the world is basically one of resignation.

Just out of curiosity what does the UFOZS hive mind say about these scenarios:

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
2. Balkan states invaded.
3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states).

BTW the US financial markets are actually up today. 

All the markets defecated early on but then staged a rally. Oil is down from the high.

Business as usual...

#1: I'll give 50/50 odds on this one
#2: 90/10 odds in favor
#3: Almost a null chance
#4: Too much of a wild card to speculate, and I could even see a false flag "attack" by someone to draw in NATO
#5 (bonus possibility): North Korea attacks South Korea with PRC backing

[Blast]

1. PRC sees this as a good time to invade Taiwan an does so.
Sun Tzu says this would be a very good time to attack.

2. Balkan states invaded.
I'm personally not convinced Russia has the finances to do this. It would make more sense to take the Ukraine, stop for a while to calm everyone down, and earn money from continuing to put the energy screws to Europe...and then hit Kazakhstan for its oilfields.

3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.
The Ukrainian government is giving weapons to any of its citizens who are willing to fight. They need to go guerilla rather than frontal assault. Keep pecking away at the Russian supply chains and infrastructure.

4. Russia attacks NATO country (other than the Balkan states).
No, they'll support China's invasion of Taiwan, instead.

-Blast

[flybynight]

3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.

The Ukrainian government is giving weapons to any of its citizens who are willing to fight. They need to go guerilla rather than frontal assault. Keep pecking away at the Russian supply chains and infrastructure.

This . and then none of the others are possible  (at least in the foreseeable future.)
  Ukraine needs to bleed the giant with a thousand tiny cuts

[Anianna]

Just some unconfirmed stories from social media:

13 Ukrainian soldiers tell Russian warship to go fuck itself.

Russian platoon surrenders, didn't think Putin would have them kill people.


Also, this is being included on many of the related posts:

LETS GET THIS TO THE TOP Dear Ukrainians!

I heard on social media that there is fake news being spread (most likely by Russia backed trolls) that polish border is closed.

It's a lie.

If you seek asylum - go towards polish border. We are ready for your arrival. We have reception points ready at the border where you can find shelter, food, medical and legal aid.

Polish government launched a dedicated site to help you: ua.gov.pl

Please share this information if you know anyone seeking help right now.

EDIT: YOU DON'T NEED VISA TO PASS THROUGH POLISH BORDER. ALL YOU NEED IS PASSPORT. VISAS ARE SUSPENDED! YOU DON'T NEED THEM FOR TIME BEING!!!!!!

EDIT2: as a proof that you no longer need visa:

• ⁠in Ukrainian https://www.gov.pl/web/udsc/ukraina---ua • ⁠in English https://www.gov.pl/web/udsc/ukraina-en


Шановні українці!

У соцмережах я чув, що поширюються фейкові новини (скоріше за все, підтримувані Росією тролі), що польський кордон закритий.

Це брехня.

Якщо ви шукаєте притулку – йдіть до польського кордону. Ми готові до вашого приїзду. На кордоні готові пункти прийому, де ви можете знайти притулок, їжу, медичну та правову допомогу.

Польський уряд запустив спеціальний сайт, щоб допомогти вам: ua.gov.pl

Будь ласка, поділіться цією інформацією, якщо ви знаєте когось, хто зараз шукає допомоги.

РЕДАКТИРОВАТИ: ВАМ НЕ ПОТРІБНА ВІЗА ДЛЯ ПРОЙДЖЕННЯ ПОЛЬСЬКИМ КОРДОНОМ. ВСЕ, що ВАМ ПОТРІБНО, - це ПАСПОРТ. ВІЗИ ПРИСПИНЕНО! ВОНИ ВАМ НЕ ПОТРІБНИ НА ЧАС!!!!!!

EDIT2: як доказ того, що вам більше не потрібна віза:

• ⁠українською https://www.gov.pl/web/udsc/ukraina---ua • ⁠англійською https://www.gov.pl/web/udsc/ukraina-en

Вибачте, якщо це дурниця, я використовував Google Translate

Lots of protests in various countries, including Russia where protestors are allegedly being arrested by the hundreds in various cities.  https://news.yahoo.com/thousands-russia-protest-ukraine-war-210453936.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

[EBuff75]

3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.

The Ukrainian government is giving weapons to any of its citizens who are willing to fight. They need to go guerilla rather than frontal assault. Keep pecking away at the Russian supply chains and infrastructure.

This . and then none of the others are possible  (at least in the foreseeable future.)
  Ukraine needs to bleed the giant with a thousand tiny cuts

I've been thinking they needed to do this for weeks, as it might have shown the resolve of the entire country to fight.  But it seems that many people there really had their heads buried in the ground, so nothing really started to be done along these lines until it was really too late to do much.  If they'd handed out hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of rifles and ammo to go with them all, that might have been enough to really give the Russians some pause. 

But it's been astonishing to hear everyone from President Zelenskyy all the way down to the "man on the street" appearing to be genuinely shocked that Russia actually invaded. Zelenskyy even said just a few days ago that he doubted anything would happen and that there would just be a diplomatic solution.  He didn't seem to change his mind until Putin refused to take his call earlier in the week.  That really seemed to rattle him.  Maybe that was when he finally realized that this was actually going to happen.

Those recruitment centers said that they'd seen a gradual increase in people signing up, but it hadn't really picked up significantly until last week, at which point they said they were getting about 200 people a day.  Still not that many, but better than the 20 per day they were getting in the month prior, or the 2-5 per day they were getting late last year.

[Anianna]

3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.

The Ukrainian government is giving weapons to any of its citizens who are willing to fight. They need to go guerilla rather than frontal assault. Keep pecking away at the Russian supply chains and infrastructure.

This . and then none of the others are possible  (at least in the foreseeable future.)
  Ukraine needs to bleed the giant with a thousand tiny cuts

I've been thinking they needed to do this for weeks, as it might have shown the resolve of the entire country to fight.  But it seems that many people there really had their heads buried in the ground, so nothing really started to be done along these lines until it was really too late to do much.  If they'd handed out hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of rifles and ammo to go with them all, that might have been enough to really give the Russians some pause. 

But it's been astonishing to hear everyone from President Zelenskyy all the way down to the "man on the street" appearing to be genuinely shocked that Russia actually invaded. Zelenskyy even said just a few days ago that he doubted anything would happen and that there would just be a diplomatic solution.  He didn't seem to change his mind until Putin refused to take his call earlier in the week.  That really seemed to rattle him.  Maybe that was when he finally realized that this was actually going to happen.

Those recruitment centers said that they'd seen a gradual increase in people signing up, but it hadn't really picked up significantly until last week, at which point they said they were getting about 200 people a day.  Still not that many, but better than the 20 per day they were getting in the month prior, or the 2-5 per day they were getting late last year.

Some of the English news outlets had been interviewing Ukrainian citizens for the past couple of weeks and many seemed very dismissive that Russia would actually invade.  Some of them directly said it wouldn't happen and that we were silly to think it would.  I don't know if they were just in denial or legitimately thought Putin didn't have the balls.  News today demonstrated that a lot of them were not prepared as shown by backups at gas stations, crowds at ATMs, and panic shopping.

If some of the reports are accurate, even some of the Russian troops didn't believe it.  One of the Russian platoons is reported to have surrendered to Ukrainian troops stating that they didn't know they would be expected to kill Ukrainians.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/595728-ukrainian-ambassador-says-russian-platoon-surrendered-to-ukrainian

[EBuff75]

3. Ukraine fights long enough and hard enough to get to a ceasefire.

The Ukrainian government is giving weapons to any of its citizens who are willing to fight. They need to go guerilla rather than frontal assault. Keep pecking away at the Russian supply chains and infrastructure.

This . and then none of the others are possible  (at least in the foreseeable future.)
  Ukraine needs to bleed the giant with a thousand tiny cuts

I've been thinking they needed to do this for weeks, as it might have shown the resolve of the entire country to fight.  But it seems that many people there really had their heads buried in the ground, so nothing really started to be done along these lines until it was really too late to do much.  If they'd handed out hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of rifles and ammo to go with them all, that might have been enough to really give the Russians some pause. 

But it's been astonishing to hear everyone from President Zelenskyy all the way down to the "man on the street" appearing to be genuinely shocked that Russia actually invaded. Zelenskyy even said just a few days ago that he doubted anything would happen and that there would just be a diplomatic solution.  He didn't seem to change his mind until Putin refused to take his call earlier in the week.  That really seemed to rattle him.  Maybe that was when he finally realized that this was actually going to happen.

Those recruitment centers said that they'd seen a gradual increase in people signing up, but it hadn't really picked up significantly until last week, at which point they said they were getting about 200 people a day.  Still not that many, but better than the 20 per day they were getting in the month prior, or the 2-5 per day they were getting late last year.

Some of the English news outlets had been interviewing Ukrainian citizens for the past couple of weeks and many seemed very dismissive that Russia would actually invade.  Some of them directly said it wouldn't happen and that we were silly to think it would.  I don't know if they were just in denial or legitimately thought Putin didn't have the balls.  News today demonstrated that a lot of them were not prepared as shown by backups at gas stations, crowds at ATMs, and panic shopping.

If some of the reports are accurate, even some of the Russian troops didn't believe it.  One of the Russian platoons is reported to have surrendered to Ukrainian troops stating that they didn't know they would be expected to kill Ukrainians.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/595728-ukrainian-ambassador-says-russian-platoon-surrendered-to-ukrainian

Normalcy bias cuts both ways apparently!