Hurricane Ida (Tropical Disturbance in GoM, heading towards TX/LA Aug. 2021)

Started by Blast, August 26, 2021, 10:05:32 AM

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Blast

https://spacecityweather.com/tropical-system-organizing-and-it-may-go-east-of-houston/

Head's up, there's a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that has a 90% chance (NWS estimate) of turning into a powerful hurricane hitting somewhere along the Texas to Louisiana coasts. Keep in mind, a lot of the nation's chemical plants and refineries are in this area. If they shut down out of precaution or are actually hit and damaged, supply chain issues will get even worse.
-Blast
My book*: Outdoor Adventures Guide - Foraging
Foraging Texas
Medicine Man Plant Co.
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Raptor

windy.com is my goto site these days for forecasts.
https://www.windy.com/pois?2021083006,29.973,-90.089,5,i:pressure

It defaults to the European model which shows fun this weekend for my AO.
Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

MPMalloy


flybynight

Just got a message from weather channel. Ida expected to make landfall as a cat 4
"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

flybynight

RAPTOR.  I know you're  busy getting ready for this storm, but when you get the chance in the next few days . Please check in with us. Godspeed




1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are ending over Cuba.
However, Ida will continue to bring periods of heavy rain across
western Cuba through today that may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.


4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi resulting in significant flash and riverine flooding
impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across
portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.



"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

Raptor

#5
A sitrep from NOLA.

No mandatory evacuation of the city us planned. As long as Ida stays to the west of NOLA the storm surge is not likely to exceed 12 feet. That is manageable. Katrina had 20 to 25 feet.

I am staying in my house for this one. Though i am prepared to go if things change.

Ida is moving fast but the GOM is very warm and will fuel Ida. So that is the wild card.

I have not been to any stores or anyplace except my yard today. It is beutiful day clear, calm winds. The proverbial calm before the storm.

Yesterday I drove past Costco and Sams. They were packed as were gas stations. I filled up Thursday and need nothing in the way of supplies. I did the routine gasoline rotation 2 weeks ago and my spare gasoline is fresh. The generator has diesel and the NG generator was serviced in May so at least 1 should work.

The stocks of bottled water are flying off the shelves. Sorry a sore point with me there. There is no reason to need bottled water if you buy water jugs. For the same cost as a coubple of cases of bottled water you can buy an inexpensive 5 gallon water container that will hold more water and last years.

FYI the Saints game was not cancelled just played early today.

My biggest concerns for the city is a likely multiday power outage. Zeta had power out for about a week. That and the buffoons who run NOLA drainage system still cannot get the pumps to work when the utility supplies power. They are "working " on the back up generation plants but thier track record screams incompetence. So IMO street flooding is a significant risk.
Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

flybynight

Quote from: Raptor on August 28, 2021, 11:40:46 AM
A sitrep from NOLA.

No mandatory evacuation of the city us planned. As long as Ida stays to the west of NOLA the storm surge is not likely to exceed 12 feet. That is manageable. Katrina had 20 to 25 feet.

I am staying in my house for this one. Though i am prepared to go if things change.

Ida is moving fast but the GOM is very warm and will fuel Ida. So that is the wild card.

I have not been to any stores or anyplace except my yard today. It is beutiful day clear, calm winds. The proverbial calm before the storm.

Yesterday I drove past Costco and Sams. They were packed as were gas stations. I filled up Thursday and need nothing in the way of supplies. I did the routine gasoline rotation 2 weeks ago and my spare gasoline is fresh. The generator has diesel and the NG generator was serviced in May so at least 1 should work.

The stocks of bottled water are flying off the shelves. Sorry a sore point with me there. There is no reason to need bottled water if you buy water jugs. For the same cost as a coubple of cases of bottled water you can buy an inexpensive 5 gallon water container that will hold more water and last years.

FYI the Saints game was not cancelled just played early today.

My biggest concerns for the city is a likely multiday power outage. Zeta had power out for about a week. That and the buffoons who run NOLA drainage system still cannot get the pumps to work when the utility supplies power. They are "working " on the back up generation plants but thier track record screams incompetence. So IMO street flooding is a significant risk.
Family staying with you or did you send them somplace out of the path of IDA ?
"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

RickOShea

As per usual, the Interstate 10 deluge....




Raptor

Quote from: RickOShea on August 28, 2021, 02:36:47 PM
As per usual, the Interstate 10 deluge....





That picture is not NOLA. Does it say where thar is?

A quick check of Google maps traffic shows I-10 moving slow to the East between NOLA and Slidell and in parts of Baton Rouge but othereise traffic is moderate.
If i want to leave I would head north if I was going by car.

I still have an option on my regular "Last flight out" with a local charter company. But I think it will be ok.

As for my family my kids are grown so only my wife my oets and me. My wife knows i love HVAC,crushed ice and coffee. All of which need power so she buttoned up the farm and came here.
Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

Raptor

Quote from: RickOShea on August 28, 2021, 02:36:47 PM
As per usual, the Interstate 10 deluge....





That picture is not NOLA. Does it say where thar is?

A quick check of Google maps traffic shows I-10 moving slow to the East between NOLA and Slidell and in parts of Baton Rouge but othereise traffic is moderate.
If i want to leave I would head north if I was going by car.

I still have an option on my regular "Last flight out" with a local charter company. But I think it will be ok.

As for my family my kids are grown so only my wife my pets and me. My wife knows i love HVAC,crushed ice and coffee. All of which need power so she buttoned up the farm and came here. She does not play well with generators.
Folks you are on your own...Plan and act accordingly!

I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers. As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

RickOShea

Quote from: Raptor on August 28, 2021, 02:57:54 PM
That picture is not NOLA. Does it say where thar is?
LOL. Upon closer inspection I believe its the 405 Freeway.

I was watching the WWL TV livestream on Youtube a while ago and they were showing the I-10 back-up around NOLA. When I did a GIS search for "I-10 New Orleans", this tweet/picture popped-up.

My bad.  :clownshoes:

flybynight

Well stay safe. Hopefully you do not have to start another thread that begins with  Ida experiences Note this is very long.
Holy smokes I fear the present administration is not up to the task for a Katrina level event
"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

flybynight

"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

Blast

I'm a Red Cross shelter manager and have been activated for the Orange County Expo shelter. I'm doing the night shift (8pm-8am) for client registrations, signing people in. Hopefully I won't be too busy.
-Blast
My book*: Outdoor Adventures Guide - Foraging
Foraging Texas
Medicine Man Plant Co.
DrMerriwether on YouTube
*As an Amazon Influencer, I may earn a sales commission on Amazon links in my posts.

Blast

I'll be working at the Red Cross shelter set up at the Orange County Expo, Sun-Tues, signing in evacuees 8pm-8am. If possible, I'll report what I see.
-Blast
My book*: Outdoor Adventures Guide - Foraging
Foraging Texas
Medicine Man Plant Co.
DrMerriwether on YouTube
*As an Amazon Influencer, I may earn a sales commission on Amazon links in my posts.

flybynight

Quote from: Blast on August 28, 2021, 05:39:45 PM
I'll be working at the Red Cross shelter set up at the Orange County Expo, Sun-Tues, signing in evacuees 8pm-8am. If possible, I'll report what I see.
-Blast

Good luck
"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

flybynight

000
WTNT64 KNHC 291057
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
600 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NOAA PLANE FINDS IDA STRONGER...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts.  The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 in).

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near
Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 82
mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (172 km/h).  Another NOAA
elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a
sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 89.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

CG

Plus, that photo seems equally backed up in both directions...are they doing contraflow at this point?

flybynight

They are saying Ida can still strengthen before landfall. Only 7 MPH more and it's a cat 5
"Hey idiot, you should feel your pulse, not see it."  Echo 83

airballrad

Hope all of you in the path of this had time to prepare sufficiently.

The aftermath of Katrina had a large affect on me regarding preparedness, and now that I live near the Gulf in FL I have a much more personal understanding of what resources are needed. Not sure how much can be done about a monster like this shy of running.

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