Supply Chain Breakdowns

[Lambykins]

I work at a grocery store.
We got problems.
Trucks are coming a day or two late, or not at all and our loads/orders are short.
1400 piece order?
We get 1100 if we are lucky.
Last truck to come in (today) had NO frozen and NO meat. No meat for the butcher, none for the deli, none for the prepared foods counter.
No supplies...no plastic bags (our state still allows them), no paper bags, no freezer bags for the ice cream.

What we have been told (officially) is that our suppliers can't get drivers for the trucks.
That really doesn't explain trucks coming in half empty.

Family Dollar in our town did not get in 4 of it's last 5 trucks.
The shelves there are damn near empty.
(Family Dollar is the "big box" store in our little town)

Keep an eye out on your local stores (grocery and otherwise).
Top up preps as your budget allows.

[Crosscut]

Thanks for the heads up.  We did let our stocks of some stuff get a little low recently, started fixing that just this week.

[Lambykins]

This is a bit of a remote area, so I guess we are outliers as far as the supply chain goes.
Gardens in the area are producing, so the boss gave the produce manager the go-ahead to start purchasing locally since the produce orders have been shorted recently, too.
Word is he has already been on the phone to the warehouse company we use in Connecticut and it doesn't look good.

I'd appreciate it if anyone out there that is noticing shortages in their AO could post on here.
Or if you are a truck driver, give us a heads up on what issues are going on.
Thanks!

[MacWa77ace]

I work for a major manufacturer and distributor. We don't do food but, Uh, yeah,
Our plants need to receive materials and parts and assemblies and products to make products to then ship out to our distribution centers. Our distribution centers need to receive completed products and ship them out to our dealers.

We're seeing delays in every aspect of the supply chain, even the last mile.

World wide container crisis effects on both sides of manufacturing.

The manufacturers overseas can't get the parts or raw materials they need to make the parts we need, because of labor shortages, price increases, and container shortages, and there's to many containers in the western hemisphere and not enough near the mfr countries to move the materials to the plants.

When those manufactures do get the parts/materials; they still can't make anything because their storage areas are full of already completed product that can't ship out because there's no containers.

When they do get a container loaded with products there's a labor shortage to get the container from the plant to the port.

Once the container gets to the port it won't get loaded on a ship. Because the oceanic freight carriers are now extorting a 'premium' rate to load the containers. From China to US is about 4500 normally, now its $18k to $21k. 'Premium' rates do not guarantee your container gets loaded, just that it moves up the line in front of people who aren't paying premium. Can you say price increases or surcharges are coming?

Ships are having labor issues with the pandemic. Less ships are active. Port backups are increasing ship transit and turnaround times.

When the container does finally get loaded onto a ship, its destination port may suspend receipt for 30 -60 days due to backups offloading at the receiving port. At this point the ship may be able to reroute to an alternate port, but that port would be farther from where the freight needs to go causing additional transit delays.

Port delays offloading; some ports are backed up months to offload ships waiting. Waiting ships are not moving ships, less ships. Labor shortages to offload from ships and load onto trucks to deliver to destination or rail yards.

Once offloaded then the Oceanic carrier have to truck or rail to the consignee. If our containers have to be railed, they basically are untraceable for about a month after they leave the port for the rail yard. And we won't get an appointment until the container is loaded on the trains. Container trucks are delayed to a degree by region but that just means that our DC's near ports get containers deliveries a little late. Central and mountain location are screwed, mostly trains take containers to the center of the country.

Inventory levels low or b/o'd for months due to container crisis. Prices Rise.

Free market demand exceeds supply, prices go up on materials.

Material:

12 Month % Increase:

Corrugate

120%

Nylon

151%

PVC

131%

ABS

209%

Zinc

139%

Particle Board

120%

STEEL

300%

Ocean Freight

400%

Materials prices go up, product prices go up; Inflation.

Last Mile or LTL freight delays.
Labor issues mean slower load times
UPS used to be a 1 day transit to anywhere in Florida, now its 1-3 days.
Our LTL carriers that used to be next day anywhere in Florida are now 1-2 days.
Regional LTL add about a day.
Long haul FL carriers are still about the same transit but short on drivers so from the time the load is ready to pickup it might be an extra 1-5 days wait before it starts moving.

Manufacturing Stops or Stutters

Covid rules will shut down a plant floor if someone tests positive. The shutdown could be up to 2 weeks, delaying production on anything coming off that floor.
Materials and components shortages or b/o's will stop manufacturing and extend lead times on products effected.
Logistics delays will b/o materials and products stopping manufacturing if key components are not available.
Storage space limitations and delayed loading block new products being made until existing product is moved out.

[Moab]

Ive seen this at several stores in los angeles. Shelves with hardly anything on them. Fewer employees in the stores. One manager said they had a job fair. And no one showed up. I said how much are you paying. And he winced and said minimum wage. We both laughed. No one can live on minimum wage here. Or even the dreamed about 15 dollars.

Costco has been out of our canned dog food and paperplates for months. Kroger has certain items like cake mixes. Used to be a quarter of an aisle filled with them. Now its a 4 ft square. And half are missing. Reminds me of communism or something. Weird times.

[Raptor]

I have not seen shortages but I have seen less product on the shelf.

For instance:
A cat food may have only the largest 40lb bag or the smallest 3.5lb bag on the shelf
The cleaning shelves are full but of off brand stuff that was obviously sourced through a different supply line. The Lysol and Clorox wipes are in stock but thin.
I have noticed that items I bought a week ago had the same best buy date as the ones I just bought which to me says they are pulling down their inventory so they do not have buy more at a higher price.

Prices here for food have gone up a lot in the last 3 months. By a lot I estimate that on average 10% for many items. Some have not changed but the ones that have increased, it has been a steep jump.

Fast food restaurants are back to drive through only due to labor shortages.

Filling job slots is tough even for decent jobs with benefits. It is not just about pay here.

[flybynight]

I have not seen shortages but I have seen less product on the shelf.

For instance:
A cat food may have only the largest 40lb bag or the smallest 3.5lb bag on the shelf
The cleaning shelves are full but of off brand stuff that was obviously sourced through a different supply line. The Lysol and Clorox wipes are in stock but thin.
I have noticed that items I bought a week ago had the same best buy date as the ones I just bought which to me says they are pulling down their inventory so they do not have buy more at a higher price.

Prices here for food have gone up a lot in the last 3 months. By a lot I estimate that on average 10% for many items. So have not changed but the ones that have increased it has been a steep jump.

Fast food restaurants are back to drive through only due to labor shortages.

Filling job slots is tough even for decent jobs with benefits. It is not just about pay here.

I'm starting  to  see a lot of signs on store /restaurants entry's showing restricted hours due to lack of employees to man the shifts

[boskone]

So far, we seem...totally unaffected.  Fast-food places are staffed, the grocery store shelves are filled (or about as much as I'd expect on a Thursday evening).

I'm checking my stocks anyway, though.

[sheddi]

It's a thing over here too.

I was in Lidl this morning (mostly buying croissants, they've got a good in-store bakery) and noticed they had no bottled water at all. Not still, not sparkling, not the budget brands, not the premium ones (well, premium for Lidl). Just an empty row where the pallets of water would normally be.

I spoke to a member of staff who was re-stocking the freezer and he simply said "we're out" then shrugged.

There was still soda, but those shelves were patchy.

If I was to guess: water is big and heavy, low profit margin and non-essential since everyone has a tap. If Lidl are short of trucks/drivers they could well choose to prioritise other goods over bottled water.

[RoneKiln]

What we have been told (officially) is that our suppliers can't get drivers for the trucks.
That really doesn't explain trucks coming in half empty.

Is that truck delivering to another store before getting to you?

[Rednex]

The wife wanted KFC last night. They had a sign up saying due to the shortage of wings they are substituting thighs. We got our bucket home and see we have wings but no drumsticks but extra thighs.

Where i work a millwork company ( we use a lot of wood ) mid Atlantic area supply is slow coming in. Worker shortage has us like a  skeleton missing a few bones.

[Lambykins]

What we have been told (officially) is that our suppliers can't get drivers for the trucks.
That really doesn't explain trucks coming in half empty.

Is that truck delivering to another store before getting to you?

No, this truck is dedicated run to us.
And we got TWO trucks today.
Because the trucks had been coming in late  (or not at all) and missing parts of our orders, every department head doubled down on orders for the truck arriving this morning.
Result...1750 pieces ordered. 1241 pieces delivered, which required two trucks.
Our dairy cooler is full, our produce cooler is full, our freezers are full, our meat locker is full.
But still over 500 pieces short on the order.
Another truck is supposed to arrive Monday.
(for those of you that don't know, a *piece* is not one item. It is a CASE of a particular item. For example, cheese comes in a box of 36 packages of bar cheese or 24 bags of shredded cheese. Milk is a milk crate with 4 gallons or 8 half gallons, etc. Canned goods are generally 24 per case and so on.)

With normal sales, a full dairy cooler is usually an empty dairy cooler within 5 to 7 days. Full meat cooler will last about the same. Produce will last 3 to 5 days.

So, everyone busted their butts today putting up the orders.
Truck arrived at 6 am.
At 6 pm, when I left work, some of the freight team was still there putting up merchandise.

[PistolPete]

The ongoing issues are hitting complex goods really hard, like automobiles.  My sister recently had her car stolen and I am trying to help her shop for a new one.  Used cars prices today are often 25% higher than two years ago, which is nuts.  New cars are sold before they hit the lot.  Car dealers that normally have 250 cars on the lot have 45 cars and they are almost all higher end models.  Her insurance covered a rental, but the rental company had no cars.  She doesn't have much money to spend and is really in a tough spot.

As an example, 4 local Honda dealers showed on their website Saturday morning they had a new base model of what she was looking for.  At each, that model had been sold before it even hit their lot and the best they could say is "put a deposit down now and you'll get first dibs at whatever doesn't already have a deposit on it, and it should come in in the next 3-6 weeks".

One dealer has a used Honda Fit, 2017, base model with manual transmission, 48k miles for $16,500.  That's the same car my brother bought new in 2017, for $16,000.  A 4 year old car selling for more than a new one simply because there is so little inventory. And that's what we keep seeing- 2 and 3 year old used cars selling for over MSRP of a brand new model.  Used car prices had a run this year where they increased in price 24 weeks in a row.  It puts her in a really rough spot, where she is going to have to spend more than she wants to get way less of a car than she could have a year ago. 

[EBuff75]

The ongoing issues are hitting complex goods really hard, like automobiles.  My sister recently had her car stolen and I am trying to help her shop for a new one.  Used cars prices today are often 25% higher than two years ago, which is nuts.  New cars are sold before they hit the lot.  Car dealers that normally have 250 cars on the lot have 45 cars and they are almost all higher end models.  Her insurance covered a rental, but the rental company had no cars.  She doesn't have much money to spend and is really in a tough spot.

As an example, 4 local Honda dealers showed on their website Saturday morning they had a new base model of what she was looking for.  At each, that model had been sold before it even hit their lot and the best they could say is "put a deposit down now and you'll get first dibs at whatever doesn't already have a deposit on it, and it should come in in the next 3-6 weeks".

One dealer has a used Honda Fit, 2017, base model with manual transmission, 48k miles for $16,500.  That's the same car my brother bought new in 2017, for $16,000.  A 4 year old car selling for more than a new one simply because there is so little inventory. And that's what we keep seeing- 2 and 3 year old used cars selling for over MSRP of a brand new model.  Used car prices had a run this year where they increased in price 24 weeks in a row.  It puts her in a really rough spot, where she is going to have to spend more than she wants to get way less of a car than she could have a year ago.

Unfortunately, it looks like the tight market for cars is going to go well into 2022, so this isn't going away for a while yet (the lead time for cars is very long, due to the complexity of the supply chain).  What that might mean is being more flexible in how/what you're shopping for in the meantime. 

That might mean looking at used instead of new, standalone used car dealers (such as Enterprise Car Sales, since you're located in their hometown) rather than just OEM dealerships, considering a wider array of vehicles (looking for a Honda, but also considering Kia, Nissan, Ford, or looking at cars, hatchbacks, SUVs, etc.), looking at vehicles which are farther away, or even considering "temporary" cars which are older & high-miles, but much cheaper. 

Large used car chains (Enterprise Car Sales, Carvana, CarMax, AutoNation, etc.) will sometimes ship cars between dealers, which means being able to shop for specific vehicles, or at a greater distance to find something.  The drawback to used cars is obviously that they may have little/no warranty left on them.  The option there would be to purchase an "extended warranty" (technically it's a service contract, since a warranty is only something which is included as part of the original sale as a no-cost item from the manufacturer) for peace of mind.  Or you can just take the chance that most modern cars are pretty reliable and go without (that's what I've always done). 

Interesting side note:  I live in the Detroit area, which hasn't seen as big of an impact, at least not among the domestic auto manufacturers.  My parents visited from Ohio this weekend and they were surprised that the dealers here still have nearly full lots.  They told me that most of the dealers near them in Ohio have just a handful of cars for sale.  I did mention that the local dealers typically have even more vehicles than what are on the lots (they frequently have large holding areas which are located elsewhere which they can draw from) and that, for them, this is considered very low supply.  The Chevy dealer near me is one of the largest in the country, so "only" having 300-400 new cars (plus another few hundred used) is just about armageddon as far as they're concerned! 

[boskone]

Vaguely related, one of the farming channels I watch mentioned that they sold their peas at $7/bu, $3 over about normal....but now peas are at $14/bu.

Food prices might go up quite a bit, depending on commercial reserves.

[boskone]

I just got back from the local HEB.  Shelves were perhaps 2/3 full, with the usual suspects lower; however it was also EOD on a Sunday--which is usually their second-busiest day--so I'm not sure that indicates supply issues so much as the fact that bulk restocking doesn't take place until around 2200.

[Lambykins]

My roommate got a call this morning. She is head of the dairy department (temporarily, manager is on vacation).
They told her to take the day off and come to work tomorrow (her normal day off) because the truck is not coming today after all.
And so it goes on...

[PistolPete]

Yesterday I went to get oil for my car (Mobil-1 0w20) and Walmart was completely sold out.  In fact, about half the shelves where they carry Mobil-1 were empty.  Walmart has a special contract with Mobil and is one of the only places that carry their product in the larger 5 quart jugs.  I have never seen them sold out of so many options before. 

Luckily they still had that brand in 5w20 and 0w30, which are acceptable substitutes for summer use.  I'll have to keep my eye out for the proper weight before my next oil change though.

[Lambykins]

Well, we finally got an answer to "why no drivers" bringing our orders up from the warehouse facility in Connecticut...
Seems there is an Amazon distribution center nearby and they are recruiting our suppliers drivers.
Amazon pays better and has benefits our distributor doesn't have, etc., so a lot of the drivers jumped ship to Amazon.

[PistolPete]

Well, we finally got an answer to "why no drivers" bringing our orders up from the warehouse facility in Connecticut...
Seems there is an Amazon distribution center nearby and they are recruiting our suppliers drivers.
Amazon pays better and has benefits our distributor doesn't have, etc., so a lot of the drivers jumped ship to Amazon.

They may find the working experience with Amazon is less enticing than it seems.  They have a reputation as a sweatshop that uses up workers and spits them out.  In fact, their new HR system for drivers is entirely automated- if you don't make your numbers you get a text message letting you know you've been terminated.  Drivers have stories about having to speed, run stop signs and keep a pee bottle in their van just to make their delivery times to maintain their job.  For a lot of people that extra $2 an hour isn't worth that level of stress.