Supply Chain Breakdowns

[SCBrian]

I've been told US Foods is hiring CDL drivers and offering a $15k sign on bonus...
$$Bills y'all...

[Lambykins]

On the subject of truckdrivers...
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/us-xpress-ceo-driver-shortage-trucking-industry-202632404.html

[MPMalloy]

I took up a subscription to Forward Observer a month ago.  Coverage to this topic & others is Excellent, imo.

$9.99/mo or $99/yr.

[TACAIR]

China just shut in another major port over "Covid".

I also note that Food Stamp payments ae going up 25% - what does that say?

Buy any LTS Chow you want now while you can still find/afford to pay for it....

[PistolPete]

I went to a local restaurant over the weekend with my sweetie and they were out of salads.  The waitress said their produce delivery never made it.  What a shame, because this time of year produce should be in bounty.

[Lambykins]

I went to a local restaurant over the weekend with my sweetie and they were out of salads.  The waitress said their produce delivery never made it.  What a shame, because this time of year produce should be in bounty.

Same thing has been happening up here.
A lot of the restaurants are buying from us (Lance gives them a discount) and some are going directly to local farmers. The store is also buying local produce as the trucks have been coming in woefully short.

[RoneKiln]

Only shortage I've seen in my area is ammo.

[Lambykins]

Only shortage I've seen in my area is ammo.

Our local gun shop has the same issue.
Ammo they ordered in January is just now arriving.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

COMMODITIES

Covid-19 Lockdowns in Asia Deepen Commodity Supply-Chain Pain

The recent surge in Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia has throttled ports and locked down plantations and processors, sparking extended disruptions of raw materials.

"These supply shocks reverberate globally because Vietnam and Malaysia hold large market share of key commodities."

Restrictions in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer of palm oil, have prevented migrant laborers from traveling to plantations, raising prices of the ubiquitous edible oil used to make candy bars, shampoo and biofuel.

Lockdowns in Vietnam, the world's No. 2 coffee exporter by volume, have delayed the processing and export of coffee beans, adding to production concerns caused by poor weather in Brazil.

The 'global tin supply' has been hit by Covid-19-related interruptions at a smelter in Malaysia, contributing to higher prices for the industrial metal, which is used to connect computer chips to circuit boards in electronics.

Malaysia has recently been recording around 19,000 new cases and 400 deaths a day in its worst outbreak since the pandemic began. Travel restrictions in place since March last year have made it difficult for workers to reach plantations, leading to a steadily declining number of laborers.

Rigid internal-movement curbs put in place in recent months in response to rising cases have added to the challenges facing palm-oil companies, as have outbreaks on plantations, causing shutdowns.

Beginning in July, an outbreak in Vietnam prompted the government to introduce curbs on movement that have interfered with shipments. Vietnam is the world's largest exporter of the bitter-tasting robusta beans used in instant coffee and espresso blends.

Combined with frost in Brazil, the world's largest coffee exporter.

Malaysia Smelting Corp. Bhd., one of the world's largest producers of refined tin, reduced smelter staff and halted operations for stretches over the past several months to comply with government regulations to limit the spread of Covid-19.

Tin solder in consumer electronics, and supply disruptions due to lockdowns in tin-producing countries around the world.

[RoneKiln]

Thanks for the notice on coffee. I'll stock that a little deeper tonight on my way home from class.

[SCBrian]

If it helps, I can drop the ordering notes I get from my produce ppl here:
example below:

September 19th thru 25th, 2021

Produce Notes and News

Quality, Availability and Price, What's going on?

Across the western U.S., down into Mexico and in the central and eastern U.S., growing/harvesting ongoing. All areas are experiencing their own unique growing conditions. Western areas are into weather patterns with varied pressure systems, variations in temperatures inland and in the desert regions, with some volatile weather and wind / rain due to coastal weather systems and seasonal fronts, Quality issues and supply gaps will occur. The East remains windy with great temperature variations and rain in the forecast. Quality range is wide, volume is down, and prices are higher. This will affect markets, volume, harvesting and growing operations throughout the U.S. harvest. Major flooding / storms / fires have affected some growing areas this year.

Fruit

Apples/Pears: Domestic supply increasing with new harvest, market higher with improved demand. Smaller sizes a bit tighter in supply, market higher. Gold Del Apples coming soon. Ginger golds now being packed. Granny Smith new crop being harvested. Pears: Domestic prices steady on lighter volume. WA supply very light. Domestic CA Bartlett harvest ongoing. Smaller sizes tight. Quality fairly good. Demand steady. Bosc Market firm. Watch for case weight changes and pack size changes. Inventory light. Note origins when receiving. Imports arriving. Domestic harvest volume was lower this year.

Avocadoes: Mexican harvest limited. Quality good, appearance fair. Markets higher as demand exceeds supply. California harvest ending, supplies tight. 48 size a bit higher.

Bananas: Supply tight with mostly good quality. Markets steady. Demand firm.

Strawberries: Over-all domestic quality fairly good. Volume lower due to heat issues. Market, demand rises. Domestic Blackberry supply, market steady, quality fairly good. Domestic Blueberry supply tighter. Market rises, quality mostly good. Demand exceeds supply. Watch Pack sizes closely on Blueberries, Blackberries, as several size packs are available with imports on markets. Labor issues are a challenge.

Citrus: Domestic Orange volume, quality fair. Market higher on heavier demand. Smaller sizes a bit tighter with firming markets. Navels finished. Valencia variety volume good. Quality, shelf life is fair. Domestic Lemon quality mostly good. Supply tighter on all sizes. Market higher. Larger sizes tighter on firming markets. Demand steady. Some imports on markets. Watch your origins. Lime import quality fair to good. Demand, market steady.

Grapes: Domestic white/green market easing on improved volume. Quality improves with steady demand. Red grapes in good supply and improved quality with an easing market. Mexican production decreasing fast with fair quality. Easing markets and improving volume on domestic CA red and white/green expected over the next few weeks.

Melons: Cantaloupe domestic supply in good volume, quality. Sizes running mostly large. Markets mostly steady, some higher. Mexican supply on markets. Demand is good. Honeydew Market is strong on light supply. Offshore / Central American melon imports end. Domestic/ import Watermelon market steady. Demand and availability good on seedless. Quality and volume good. Freight cost, logistics an ongoing issue.

Stone Fruit: Domestic Peach, Plum, Nectarine harvest/supply good with steady demand, prices. Smaller sizes scarce. Peaches approaching end of the domestic season.

Vegetables

Asparagus: Peruvian volume tighter. Demand steady. Mexico shipping into US with diminished quality and supplies. Market remains strong on limited volume, fair quality.

Bell Peppers: Western import green volume better this week on good quality. Market firm on steady demand. Red and yellow bells market steady, volume fair with fairly good quality, steady demand. Eastern Green Bell market firms on tighter volume. Demand steady.

Broccoli: Volume decreases. Quality mostly fair at best. Market stronger.

Cabbage: Market stronger. Domestic of good quality. Volume and demand steady. Brussel sprout market higher as demand exceeds supply. Volume tight with some quality issues.

Carrots: Market stronger. Volume tighter. Demand good. Domestic cello carrot quality mostly good on tighter volume, increased market, and demand. J-bo supplies fair. Demand strong. Mexican harvest still ongoing. TX harvesting. School pull strains volume.

Cauliflower: Volume tighter. Quality fair to good. Markets stronger.

Celery: Western, eastern domestic product volume improves, quality mostly good. Market pushed by increased demand.

Cucumbers: Western border crossings in fairly good volume and demand. Quality good on a variable market. Eastern and import volume improved with a steady market and good quality. Demand is heavy.

Green Onions: Import market leveling off. Quality improving. Variable sizing. Supply meets demand.

Leaf Lettuce/ Iceberg: Iceberg market strong on fair quality and volume. Demand exceeds supply. Leaf Lettuce / Romaine supplies showing some tip burn, markets higher. Demand strong on moderate volume. Leaf lettuce market rising. Quality fairly good. Demand strong.

Onions: Domestic Yellow, Red, White markets higher on mostly good quality, steady volume. Demand good. Larger sized onions in tighter supply. Mexican imports started.

Potatoes: Russet quality is mostly good. Demand steady. 40-80 ct and larger in better supply. Market steady. Red, Gold and White "A" potatoes market steady. Volume, quality good. Sweet potato market firm on good quality and demand. Larger sizes in tight supply.

Squash: Market expected to ease as volume builds out west and in the east on yellow and zucchini squash. Quality improving.

Tomatoes: East and West, markets steady on improved volume and moderate demand. Quality mostly good.

[Raptor]

This is great data. Thank you!

[MPMalloy]

This is great data. Thank you!

Big WOW

[lurkedthere]

BBC News - Gas price rise: US boss holds crisis gas talks with UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58615784

Natural gas prices are skyrocketing. Two US owned fertilizer plants have temporarily shut down as they are not economic to operate at these gas prices.
These 2 plants supply 60% of UK CO2 as a by-product. This is used in meat processing, coolant for nuclear reactors and medical gasses amongst other things.

TLDR; UK Gov may provide a subsidy to produce CO2 !

Over to you Greta.

[Raptor]

You omitted a key user of co2 ... fountain drinks and carbonated beverages.

Amazing times in which we live. BTW CF Industries also has a plant in NOLA that produces alumina among other products.

[Raptor]

A quick update on the containership stackup outside of LAX.
the green dots are cargo ships stopped or anchored. The green ship shaped items are cargo ships moving. If you click on them it will show course and speed and ship data. Many that are "underway" are moving at less than 1 knot indicating that are moving away from a potential conflict and resume drifting later. They simply "station keeping".

This site has real time AIS data and shows every vessel with AIS gear. (kinda like a transponder for airplanes but different it shows vessel name, position, course, speed and destination to anyone with the equipment to received it)   
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-109.2/centery:33.4/zoom:6

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/record-shattered-61-container-ships-stuck-waiting-off-california

The number of container ships at anchor or drifting in San Pedro Bay off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has blown through all previous records.

The latest peak: There were an all-time-high 73 container ships in the queue in San Pedro Bay on Sunday, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California (the tally inched back to 69 on Tuesday). Of the ships offshore Sunday, 36 were forced to drift because anchorages were full.

Theoretically, the numbers — already surreally high — could go even higher than this. While designated anchorages are limited, the space for ships to safely drift offshore is not.

"There's lots of ocean for drifting — there's no limit," Capt. Kip Loutit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, told American Shipper.

Why is this important? Because even once all of these ships are of loaded. The containers (CCU) will have to be trucked (or put on rail cars) to be delivered to their destination. Even if these are transported by rail cars they have to driven by truck to the "last mile" then unloaded for further transport to the end users.

Truckers are already in short supply. They have a back log that is simply growing larger by the day.

That means further spot shortages and delays of any product produced overseas in Asia...which these days is basically everything.

[Raptor]

The rail crash has closed a key freight line. There are alternates but this line is used to move coal to power plants.
https://apnews.com/article/amtrak-crash-montana-c8c3730849f568ca68b455eb23b49cef

[Raptor]

A trucking issue that is occurring in the UK.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10031025/Boris-calls-Army-Hundreds-soldiers-scrambled-drive-fuel-trucks.html

Hopefully Sheddi will cast some light on the issue.
This problem appears to be exacerbated by panic buying which results in gas stations running out or limiting purchases which then further feeds the panic.

Plan accoridngly.

[sheddi]

A trucking issue that is occurring in the UK.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10031025/Boris-calls-Army-Hundreds-soldiers-scrambled-drive-fuel-trucks.html

Hopefully Sheddi will cast some light on the issue.
This problem appears to be exacerbated by panic buying which results in gas stations running out or limiting purchases which then further feeds the panic.

Plan accordingly.

It's a combination of unforced errors, really.

• Commercial driving isn't seen as a career by many British people. The hours are long and unsocial, facilities at truck stops have seen little investment for decades and are poor and expensive when comparred to eg. France or Germany, salaries can be low (at least in hourly terms) and truckers are generally underappreciated. Talk of self-driving trucks doesn't convince people that it's a long-term job either. I've read recently that the average British truck driver is 55 years old.
• At the end of 2019 the UK finished leaving the EU. One of the claimed benefits was increased control over EU migrant labour. Business recognised that a significant number of hospitality/agricultural/logistics staff were seasonal migrants but the working visa schemes set up were lacking or absent.
• In spring 2020 COVID arrived. As part of the response, driver tuition and testing was suspended. This wasn't immediately recognised as a problem as logistic demands were decreased by a reduction in economic activity. (On a personal note it took me a couple of months to find somewhere to repeat my compulsory motorcycle training.)
• COVID restrictions went on much longer than expected. Driver training has really only resumed since this summer (ie. a 15 month gap). In that time probably 5% of the UK's truck drivers will have retired (average age 55, national pension age 65-ish).
• All through 2021 there have been reports of a shortage of truck drivers. Initially it was seen with huge logistics bottlenecks at the UK's international RORO ports as EU drivers were unable or unwilling to travel cross-border. Later is manifested as shortages of foodstuffs in supermarkets, building materials, lumber, steel, cement. Most recently it led to a major contractor for the UK's liquid fuel companies having insufficient drivers to keep all the gas stations in business.
• Reports broke late last week that a small number of gas stations had to close due to missed deliveries. The UK Gov't made a big announcement that there was plenty of fuel and no need to panic. The newspapers, inevitably, ran front-page stories focussing on the shortages (see this post) which kicked off nationwide panic-buying of gasoline and diesel.
• Belatedly, the UK Govt has announced 5000 additional working visas for truck drivers. These are only 3 month duration and terminate on Christmas Eve. What they don;;t seem to have noticed is that the EU's economy has also picked up, there's a shortage of truck drivers there too and hardly anyone is going to uproot themselves and travel to the UK for 3 months work.

The effects have gone further than trucking too; there are reports of schools that can't get school bus drivers and waste haulage companies that can't get garbage truck drivers, as they've all taken jobs driving trucks instead.

Fundamentally there aren't enough qualified truck drivers in the UK to go around and there's more than a year's worth of driver training and testing to catch up with.

An anecdote for you. My son motorcycles to college every day. his scooter has a tiny tank (a little more than one gallon) and so he needs to fill up every week. There are two gas stations near his college; neither had fuel this morning when he arrived at college, and neither had fuel this afternoon when he left. The only other gas station on his route is a mile from home and he was lucky that they had fuel and had staff on the forecourt marshalling drivers. He managed to fill up within 15 minutes of arriving; when it was his turn he was sent to a pump, filled up, then instructed to leave the pump before paying (normally forbidden) and go park in front of the kiosk to make space for the next customer at the pump.

Personally, we've got food, fuel and TP for the foreseeable future but I suspect it's going to get worse before it gets better.

Edit: see a couple of posts further in this thread for some actual statistics rather than my guesses above.

[lurkedthere]

Fully agree with Sheddi.

One thing to note. The businesses involved with things like food harvesting, truck driving and care homes all suffer from labour shortages. For the past few decades the response has been to employ more and more cheap foreign labour. Improving terms and conditions to attract locals was not on the agenda.

That's coming back to bite them.