Hamas launches surprise attack on Israel

[majorhavoc]

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/index.html

Over 2000 rockets launched from the Gaza strip into Israeli cities and settlements as part of a coordinated cross border incursion.  Several Israeli settlements have been taken over by Hamas militants.  IDF has responded with massive airstrikes in Gaza.

In my mind the big wildcard is Iran.  They are known supporters of Hamas.  But this attack suggests a whole other level of involvement given its size, scope and complexity.  This has ramifications well beyond the Gaza strip.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

PM says they are at war.

[Raptor]

The political rhetoric related to this is amazing. I will go no further on that subject.

IMO if anyone starts shelling civilians out of the blue they deserve whatever retaliation they get.

Those who wage war on civilians deserve no quarter.

[Z.O.R.G.]

New link to Jerusalem Post Middle East and Israel News | All Breaking News | The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com) for local update.

We're likely to see the number go up significantly in the next few days.  There are some reports that Hasbullah in Lebanon approached the northern border of Israel and took fire from the IDF.   

Coordination of a land, sea and air attack is not a simple thing, especially without given indication.  Given the planning put into the attack and the terrorists use of asymmetric warfare, I'd expect there are surprises waiting for the IDF if/when they enter Gaza.  

[DarkAxel]

A huge intelligence failure on the part of Mossad and the US.

[Raptor]

From what I have read so far this was in fact a massive and coordinated terror attack. They use rockets attacks to get the population into shelters. Then sent over personnel on motorcycles and paragliders with the intent to sow terror and confusion while other units attacked specific military point to hamper any response. The thugs on motorcycle would shoot civilians to sow terror on the way to point targets. That activity brings resources away the point targets. I have not seen what the paraglider elements attacked but that would put armed point person where ever they wanted.

They also captured hostages as they could do so...or simply killed them.

What is not clear to me is the intent. The military gains are not likely to long lived. The retaliation has started with airstrikes. 

Yes they killed Israelis, embarrassed the government in doing so but beyond that, the end game of such a massive attack does not make sense to me.

Israel has mobilized their reserves and has declared war though I am not sure . Meanwhile the Palestinian Islamic jihad said its group had joined the attack along with Hamas.  

So this is not going to be over anytime soon.


Note these links show violence and death hence only the link is displayed.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-gaza-rockets-attack-palestinians/card/videos-on-social-media-show-capture-of-civilians-soldiers-Q7gp8xxnhI6DDavXTpIe

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12606553/Female-Israeli-soldier-killed-Hamas-paraded-truck-actually-German-tattoo-artist-30-attending-music-festival-devastated-family-say-nightmare.html

https://videos.skynews.com/media/v1/pmp4/static/clear/6058004172001/d9672bc5-a2c4-4b3a-ad78-19e987822b1e/c7b8ff79-c22f-4f59-91a1-923e491087eb/main.mp4

[majorhavoc]

A huge intelligence failure on the part of Mossad and the US.

Military experts say the Hamas attacks were unusually sophisticated.


Non-subscribers will probably hit the NYTimes paywall, so I'm quoting a longer than normal passage:

"The attack itself was very complex," said Mick Mulroy, a former top Pentagon Middle East official and retired C.I.A. paramilitary officer.

Mr. Mulroy said the invasion was preceded by a barrage of thousands of rockets and missiles that likely stunned much of the Israeli armed forces and the police forces. Militants then used technical means to disrupt Israel communications, he said, before launching a multipronged air, sea and land attack with assaulters roaring in on tractors to clear Israeli defensive barriers. Pickup trucks loaded with soldiers, small boats and manned paragliders were also part of the assault.

"These multiple means of attack probably gave the IDF a significant tactical dilemma," Mr. Mulroy said, referring to the Israeli military.

Javed Ali, a former White House counterterrorism official now at the University of Michigan's Ford School, concurred, saying in an email that "the attack was stunning in its scope, complexity and impact in Israel. Never before had the group launched a multifaceted operation to this extent, which almost certainly required months of deliberate planning and coordination."

The element of surprise played a large role in the attacks' initial success, outside experts said.

"From a purely military perspective, the Hamas operation was groundbreaking," said Bilal Saab, director of the Middle East Institute's defense and security program in Washington. "The missiles were used for diversion. The goal was infiltration, which succeeded. This is what Hezbollah threatened Israel with in the 2000s."

Mr. Ali said it was odd that Israeli intelligence appeared to have missed signs the attack was coming. "Significant questions arise over how Israeli intelligence was unable to detect strategic or tactical indicators of the operation, given their longstanding excellence in domestic and foreign intelligence," Mr. Ali said.

Analysts also said they saw the probable influence, if not direct support, from Iran in the strikes, especially given Tehran's longstanding relationship with Hamas and its supply of money, weapons, and training.

"The operation's complexity indicates a nation-state like Iran was behind this supporting the attackers with weapons and munitions, intelligence, and possibly operational planning," said Mr. Mulroy.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

What is not clear to me is the intent.

In recent weeks, diplomats from the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia have told NBC News that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden have all expressed support for an agreement that would result in Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel diplomatically.
Diplomats say that if Saudi Arabia agreed to recognize Israel it would lead other Arab states to do so. A series of such agreement would end decades of hostility between Israel and its neighbors dating back to 1948.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/significance-hamas-chose-attack-israel-now-rcna119351

Hammas will kill as many people as necessary to prevent the normalization of relations with the Saud. If that happens everyone else will have to fall in line.

[Raptor]

I think you have a reasonable explanation of the goal. That also explains why Hamas announced that Iran supplied financing.

The logic makes sense in a horrific way.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

That also explains why Hamas announced that Iran supplied financing.

That is more of an information operations (propaganda) poke at the US. The $6B that was returned to Iran for "humanitarian purposes" becomes an issue in the US for infighting. The story line in the ME will now read that the US isn't interested in peace. Instead they are bank rolling both sides to fight each other.

[Z.O.R.G.]

I'd consider filling your tank(s).  I don't know what this is going to do with the price per gallon over the next days/weeks/months, but I'm willing to bet it doesn't go down.  

[Blast]

There's reports US citizens are among the hostages.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-citizens-hostages-israel-hamas-militants-gaza-antony-blinken-1832930

At this point, I'm about ready for WWIII to go hot and get it over with.
-Blast

[Raptor]

There's reports US citizens are among the hostages.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-citizens-hostages-israel-hamas-militants-gaza-antony-blinken-1832930

At this point, I'm about ready for WWIII to go hot and get it over with.
-Blast

I do not think the current US ptb are likely to do anything beyond giving billion$ for appearance sake.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

There's reports US citizens are among the hostages.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-citizens-hostages-israel-hamas-militants-gaza-antony-blinken-1832930

At this point, I'm about ready for WWIII to go hot and get it over with.
-Blast

I do not think the current US ptb are likely to do anything beyond giving billion$ for appearance sake.

And by doing so, these jerkoffs are just going to keep getting bolder and bolder and figure "Well, the last time we did this, we got billions of dollars from the US. Let's take more hostages and see how much more money we can get from them this time."

[Z.O.R.G.]

Sounds like the US is sending carrier battle group Ford into the eastern med.  Unfortunately, what's going on now will not be stopped by planes & bombs.  Putting boots on the ground is going to get messy.  No matter how professional and respectful of civilians those boots are, there will be plenty of video snips to stoke the fires. 

Looking Hamas up (on Wikipedia) Egypt is listed as one of their State opponents.  What if Israel let Egypt's military enter the west bank?  That would change things up considerably. 

[Uomo Senza Nome]

What if Israel let Egypt's military enter the west bank? 

If that happens I will video myself ballerina dancing in a teal tutu and post it here.

[Raptor]

Sounds like the US is sending carrier battle group Ford into the eastern med.  Unfortunately, what's going on now will not be stopped by planes & bombs.  Putting boots on the ground is going to get messy.  No matter how professional and respectful of civilians those boots are, there will be plenty of video snips to stoke the fires. 

A carrier battle group is basically worthless for house to house fighting. I suspect that the IDF has enough personnel to deal with this and the battle group is meant to intimidate the other region states. That and they have to be somewhere so if they are in area sending them to the coast of Israel is cheap and easy. They can also use their ELINT assets to feed intel to the IDF without anyone knowing about it. 

Egypt (the state) is not likely to intervene but many Egyptians do not like israel.
This occurred earlier in 2023.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-israelis-hit-by-gunfire-in-incident-on-egyptian-border/

This occurred yesterday:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-gaza-rockets-attack-palestinians/card/policeman-shoots-dead-two-israelis-one-egyptian-at-tourist-site-in-alexandria-OAcOxCPxGQhy7nGcRY8v

[Z.O.R.G.]

I doubt Egypt or any gulf country would seriously consider coming to Israel's aid.  As many have said, it appears the most likely objective Hamas has in this is to stop the peace process between Saudi & Israel.  (Aside from killing some Israelis.)  No matter how Israel persecutes a ground war, they will alienate portions of other gulf nations.  

[echo83]

I'm pretty furious about this. For the first time in 50 years, Israel is at war. This attack is the worst they have experienced in decades.  

On the one hand, you have an internationally recognized military that goes above and beyond and normal standards to prevent unnecessary bloodshed. The IDF sends you a text alert or air-dropped leaflet to make sure that you're clear of the danger before they conduct an operation in your neighborhood. After that they put a concrete dumb bomb through the roof. After that comes the actual weaponry. 

On the other hand you have a mob that doesn't seem to care what kind of blood they shed, as long as some of it is Israeli. They'll fire rockets from the roof of a hospital or a playground into a neighborhood with no military value, without warning. Anyone tries to stop them, they torture or kill them. This time they're taking grandmothers hostage, and battering the civilian corpses of their enemies before loading them into pickup trucks and parading them around. 

I can't imagine the frustration the residents of the Gaza strip must feel being used as human shields. I can't fathom how the rest of their neighbors seem to only value them as the same. 

This whole situation should throw into pretty sharp relief which side values human life. 

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

What if Israel let Egypt's military enter the west bank?

If that happens I will video myself ballerina dancing in a teal tutu and post it here.

I'll join you, except I'll be wearing a Doctor Zaius mask and a lime green tutu.

I think we'll sooner see Sasquatch, the Loch Ness monster and Baba Yaga marching to help Israel fight against Hamas before Egypt lifts a finger to help them.