Explosions of Nord Stream 1 & 2 Gas Pipeline

[Blast]

Drastic pressure drops in the two Russia gas pipelines, Nord Stream 1 & 2 were reported happening within hours of each other, followed by reports from Swedish seismic observatories of two big, undersea explosions near these gas lines. Observation flyovers report huge, on-going bubbling activities in the sea over the estimated location of the explosions. Basically, these two pipelines will be out of commission for weeks if not months, causing even more disruption to EU energy supplies.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosioner-intill-nord-stream
-Blast (who had nothing to do with the explosions!)

[majorhavoc]

Very, very suspicious timing.  Hang on to your hats people.  I think things are going to get dicey over the next few months.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

-Blast (who had nothing to do with the explosions!)

That doesn't sound suspicious or anything!  

[Raptor]

This is an interesting development and IMO a really bad incident for the EU.

The what, where and when of this incident are clear.
NG pipelines have failed catastrophically in other places. That is not impossible but a failure in 3 places is not likely.

There are several EU pols saying they do not think it was an accident.

"It's hard to imagine that it's accidental," said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, noting that it was "unusual" for the leaks to happen at such a distance from each other.

Another article quoted the usual "unnamed source".

Meanwhile, German daily Tagesspiegel reported that the leaks might be the result of "targeted attacks". "We cannot imagine a scenario that is not a targeted attack," a source close to the government and relevant authorities, was quoted as saying in the newspaper.

https://news.yahoo.com/sabotage-suspected-nord-stream-pipeline-100001372.html

IMO the likely scenario was not an accident it had to involve an act of internal sabotage or a "strike" by some player(s).

The why is IMO very clear; to preclude Russia from shipping NG to the EU for an indeterminate amount of time. 

The "who" (done it) is the real question here.

Nordstream Pipeline 1 & 2 are either owned or financed by Gazprom and it is used exclusively to ship Russian NG to the EU. Russia could easily have done the same thing by simply turning off the valves on their end. It does not mean they would not do this but it would have been a whole simpler to have had an R&M issue that required the pipelines to be shut down for "repairs".  It would be illogical for Russia to do this but then again Russia lately has not been very logical.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream

It is possible but not  likely it was an act of sabotage by a disgruntled Gazprom worker(s) but that is easier said than done with a large high pressure NG pipeline. You just cannot throw a bomb/wrench/crowbar into a high pressure NG line like they do in Hollywood.

An EU state could have done this. There was talk in the EU about lifting sanctions for the winter on the NG. It may have been an EU state action to prevent such an action. However doing that could be considered an act of war. It would have been easier to simply turn off the gas valve on the EU side. So again possible but not likely

It could have been an act of war by Ukraine and the pipeline is a legitimate military target but that would likely strain relations between Ukraine and the EU when Ukraine really needs EU/US support. I doubt the Ukraine has the resources for an underwater attack and such a strike would more likely have targeted the above ground equipment in Russia. So possible but not likely.

It could have been an act by a 3^rd party (a Hollywood Spectre type group) seeking to capitalize on chaos...Who knows it is possible but again an underwater attack is not easy so IMO not likely.

It could have been a green group seeking to force the EU to wean itself off Russian NG. They have resorted to similar violent acts but these pipelines are underwater and not easy to attack. An attack on the land based infrastructure would have been easier. So possible but not likely.

You then have to look at who benefits from this action.
Any country that exports CNG (US & OPEC we are now looking at you) stands to benefit from increased exports. That said increased exports were likely anyway due to the anticipated winter NG shortage in the EU. The US has the capability and a motive though OPEC does have a motive but does not have the capability of stealthy underwater attack. 

Countries outside of the EU that manufacture products needing energy also have a motive; that includes PRC & India. They also were likely to benefit from the anticipated energy shortage in the EU. The PRC and India both have a motive and the capability.

There are a long list of suspects.

The simplest answer IMO is that this was done to remove Russia's bargaining chip against the EU of restoring the NG flow quickly in return for sanction relief. The simplest answer is it was done by pols for political reasons. This to me, points us back to the US or an EU state. But again the logic of such an action eludes me.

What is clear however is that the EU is likely to have a cold homes and offices this winter and very high energy costs. This will negatively impact their economy and the repercussions will be felt in world markets.

Stand by for this matter to evolve.

[Raptor]

This is an interesting development in this matter.

If, or rather when, supplies through Ukraine are shut down, it would leave Gazprom sending gas only via the TurkStream pipeline to Turkey and a handful of European countries that haven't severed business ties with Russia.

Move Turkey along with the Czech Republic up the list of usual suspects (not saying they did the deed, just they have more to gain than lose.) 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/dramatic-escalation-european-nat-gas-prices-soar-after-gazprom-warns-ukraine-flows-risk


A good map of NG pipelines. It shows how crucial the Czech Republic is to the EU NG pipeline supply chain.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/russian%20gas%20pipelines%20into%20europe%20goldman_2.jpg?itok=v1_NQdCz

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

😔

[Raptor]

I ran across this article in my search spider for Nordstream. It is a PR piece put out by the US Navy in a magazine. The US Navy a demolition exercise in the Baltic in June 2022.

https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/

Lt. j.g. Chris Bianchi, assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Mobile Unit (EODMU) 8, prepares mock explosives for a pierside training event during exercise BALTOPS 22, June 10. U.S. NAVY / Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Daniel James Lanari

Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring all under the direction of U.S. 6th Fleet Task Force 68.

Yes THAT Bornholm Island...where the pipeline was destroyed.

Now I am not saying these folks did this but this certainly should raise some questions in anyone's mind. The timing is well within the interval where charges could have been placed and detonated 90 +/- days later.

So here is my point:
Assuming this was done by a nation/state it is a bona fide Act of War. 

If the Russians did not do this (who knows? Not me.) then they were clearly aware of this exercise. The timing is too coincidental. This may explain their increased nuclear attack rhetoric.

If the US did not do this, the training exercise could have been used by the perpetrators to draw attention (a false flag) to the US as a suspect. However, it still begs the question of why the US training at that site?

Either way the US would deny the action. They would also elicit the MSM to blame Russia.
I have noted that the MSM is now screaming Russian sabotage. I have also read a couple of normally Anti-Russian sites saying otherwise using the illogic of such an attack.

So what does this mean? It means a lot more rhetoric about a war between Russia and the EU/US. If Russia did not do this they will assume the US did the deed and react accordingly.

This has a higher probability of turning out to be very nasty for all involved.

It also focuses the now value of the Norwegian NG pipelines and makes them a unique target for a quid pro quo mystery attack by Russia (if they want revenge). 

None of this can turn out to be anything except bad. The only question is how bad and who gets the brunt of this incident's impact.

UFOZS'ers need to pay close attention to this but do what the EU is going to do this winter...stay frosty. 

[Raptor]

Note this joint UK & Ukraine training exercise in August 2022:

https://marinhttps://marineindustrynews.co.uk/royal-navy-divers-train-ukrainians/eindustrynews.co.uk/royal-navy-divers-train-ukrainians/

The UK is giving six of the underwater drones to Ukraine and training its personnel here in Britain to use them so they can clear their coastline of mines when they return to their homeland.
The lightweight autonomous vehicle is designed for use in shallow coastal environments, operating effectively at depths of up to 100m to detect, locate and identify mines using an array of sensors, so the Ukrainian Navy can destroy them.
Dozens of Ukrainian Navy personnel will be taught to use the drones over the coming months, with the first tranche having already begun their training. This includes launching and recovering the devices at sea, as well as interpretation of the data sent back to identify mock mines.

That would actually make more sense. The BALTOP 22 could have been used to gather data and plan the attack and Ukraine carrying out the attack as a legitimate act of war.

No proof here but certainly some smoke (or bubbling pipeline) that sure looks too convenient.

 

 

[EBuff75]

LawDog just posted an interesting theory about what might have happened, and his explanation actually makes a lot of sense.  It basically came down to lack of proper maintenance and a known issue that can happen under the sort of environmental circumstances that the pipeline was subject to. 

He grew up around the petroleum industry, which gives him a bit better understanding of how things work than what many people have.  It's a longer post than what he's done in a while, but worth the read.

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

[Raptor]

LawDog just posted an interesting theory about what might have happened, and his explanation actually makes a lot of sense.  It basically came down to lack of proper maintenance and a known issue that can happen under the sort of environmental circumstances that the pipeline was subject to. 

He grew up around the petroleum industry, which gives him a bit better understanding of how things work than what many people have.  It's a longer post than what he's done in a while, but worth the read.

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

This is certainly possible.

This is also correct in stating the possibility of an accident.

To be honest (IMO) an accident is a more logical occurrence since I am still trying figure why such an act makes sense. That said logic is not always present in intentional acts.

The other thing is that even if it is an accident, Russia many not think so and the EU may not think so and act on that assumption. Unfortunately perception is reality in today's world.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Now I am not saying these folks did this but this certainly should raise some questions in anyone's mind. The timing is well within the interval where charges could have been placed and detonated 90 +/- days later.

So here is my point:
Assuming this was done by a nation/state it is a bona fide Act of War. 

If the Russians did not do this (who knows? Not me.) then they were clearly aware of this exercise. The timing is too coincidental. This may explain their increased nuclear attack rhetoric.

If the US did not do this, the training exercise could have been used by the perpetrators to draw attention (a false flag) to the US as a suspect. However, it still begs the question of why the US training at that site?

Either way the US would deny the action. They would also elicit the MSM to blame Russia.
I have noted that the MSM is now screaming Russian sabotage. I have also read a couple of normally Anti-Russian sites saying otherwise using the illogic of such an attack.

A total of 14 NATO nations, including NATO partner nations Finland and Sweden, took part in the 51st annual maritime-led joint Baltic Operations (BALTOPS 22).^[11]
The NATO allies, including Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Turkey, the UK, and the US will participate in the exercise which took place between 5 and 17 June 2022.
BALTOPS 2022 was shadowed by Two Russian Karakurt-class corvette were around the area of the BALTOPs naval exercise in the Baltic Sea.^{[12]
BALTOPS - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BALTOPS
https://news.usni.org/2022/06/07/russian-corvettes-spotted-shadowing-baltops-exercise}

Now, I'm not saying we couldn't have done it, but to have done it in front of the entire neighborhood...seems a little less likely.  And it seems like we do naval exercises in that neighborhood on a yearly basis, so I wouldn't read too much into that, anyway.

What I'm really curious about is whether anyone has any surveillance on the pigging valves at Vyborg, outside of Gazprom, of course.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

LawDog just posted an interesting theory about what might have happened, and his explanation actually makes a lot of sense.  It basically came down to lack of proper maintenance and a known issue that can happen under the sort of environmental circumstances that the pipeline was subject to. 

He grew up around the petroleum industry, which gives him a bit better understanding of how things work than what many people have.  It's a longer post than what he's done in a while, but worth the read.

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

That is an excellent write-up.  I can confirm, based on my narrow experience in the oil field, hydrates are a bitch, to put it mildly.  

On top of the mountain of facts he dropped, I found this:  
  

LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom said on Friday that natural gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would remain shut off after the main gas turbine at the Portovaya compressor station near St Petersburg was found to have an engine oil leak during a joint inspection with Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE), which maintains the turbine.
It said the turbine could not operate safely until the leak was repaired, and gave no timeframe for the resumption of gas supplies via the pipeline, which had been due to return to operation early on Saturday after a three-day maintenance break.

Gazprom: Nord Stream 1 gas to stay shut until fault fixed, "workshop conditions needed" | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-nord-stream-1-gas-stay-shut-until-turbine-fault-fixed-no-timeline-given-2022-09-02/

Leaky turbines are a great way to get outside crap (air and water) into your gas line.  You really don't want that.

[RoneKiln]

Another possibility could be a cyberattack messing with the controls. It wouldn't even have to be intentional. US infrastructure has been damaged by hackers trying to figure out what they had accessed. 

I still have a lot of clients in petrochemicals and much like LawDog indicated, nobody I work with is assuming this is sabotage. Given current public knowledge it's very likely negligence or incompetence. 

[EBuff75]

LawDog posted a follow-up with more info. And apparently the previous post blew up (pun intended) on him!  His analysis might be striking a chord with people. 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

[fáwë]

Allegedly russians claim that the strike was made by British navy. Brits deny. I would like to know what would be their reason to bomb the gas pipes and why would anyone believe that

[Blast]

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

Seymour Hersh is considered to be an excellent investigative reporter who does impeccable research before publishing anything. In this article, he goes into clear details on how the CIA, with the help of US and assorted Western European navies, sabotaged Nord Streams 1 & 2. If this is correct...and unfortunately, he usually is, things may get very hot very quickly. 

Granted...part of me has a very hard time believing the current US government would do this, considering their fear of shooting down a balloon. But we are in crazy times and a lot of things I never thought would happen are currently going gangbusters.
-Blast

[majorhavoc]

Explosive indeed.

[Z.O.R.G.]

Buried in the news from over the weekend.

Senior Ukrainian official coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack: report | Fox News

Ukraine officer had key role in Nord Stream sabotage: reports | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)