COVID chat thread

[RoneKiln]

In the last few days I've listened to around 8 hours of interviews with epidemiologists, virologists, and doctors specializing in health policies and research.



Some of the most depressing material I've ever heard. 

[flybynight]

Leading Oxford vaccine expert warns of giving regular boosters 'unsustainable'





https://newsofamerica.org/2022/01/04/leading-oxford-vaccine-expert-warns-of-giving-regular-boosters-unsustainable/

[CG]

In the last few days I've listened to around 8 hours of interviews with epidemiologists, virologists, and doctors specializing in health policies and research.



Some of the most depressing material I've ever heard. 

The more you know, the less you trust that any organization has the best interest of the people even in their top 10 priorities. Including the government and medical systems.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

In the last few days I've listened to around 8 hours of interviews with epidemiologists, virologists, and doctors specializing in health policies and research.



Some of the most depressing material I've ever heard. 

So, who are these people? I would like to take a listen myself.


Since always it has been my nature to ask a lot of questions about something that takes my interest. I get flu, lighter cases, and I never miss a flu shot. And viral pneumonia+shot. And ask questions. Then look stuff up if I can. Viruses are never nice to me. I followed a legal case from beginning to end (couple of years) and collected & studied hundreds of files. Good times.

So one might be able to imagine how my interest could go fro zero to 60 reading a now old mid-Jan '20 headline about a pneumonia?, virus?, taking shape.

And finding out info, original info as best I could, which began personal research that laid in the shade what I used to think was deep diving during that lawsuit.

In the beginning especially nobody in the area affected knew much, and would let go of less for quite a while.

The world's med sciences then became lazer focused from at least a hundred direction. And you're going through everybody learning about this virus from every angle as we went along.

So at first it was catch it all and watch for patterns.

Internet, news, hispitals, virologists, labs, Everyone & everything was saying 'words'. Then we began early reports & emerging data that may/maynot hold. Then more and more.

Eventually, for me it would become 'Where's the original source?' 'What's it's known bias?' 'Has this been replicated?' 'By who?' 'Who are they? What's their bias?' yadda yadda yadda

Eventually curating all I heard and read into data that held up over time. And people in or around directly focused on the virus saying similar things from data my searching indicated confirmable. 

Further curating them to those who did not say 'This is what is.' You, know, telling me the full answer was now available... on an ever changing pandemic. And we now couple of years in it and looking back they seemed to be keeping right with the data and changes changes. My most trusted became the couple of them saying here's the data, here are possible trajectories from what we see right now. And when the science updated, they said so.

The best, when they don't know or don't have enough data,..say so loud and firmly so as not to be misunderstood.

[CG]

In the last few days I've listened to around 8 hours of interviews with epidemiologists, virologists, and doctors specializing in health policies and research.



Some of the most depressing material I've ever heard. 

So, who are these people? I like to take a listen myself.


Since always it has been my nature to ask a lot of questions about something that takes my interest. I get flu, lighter case, and I never miss a flu shot. And viral pneumonia+shot. And ask questions. Then look stuff up if I can. Viruses are never nice to me. I followed a legal case from beginning to end (couple of years) and collected & studied hundreds of files. Good times.

So one might be able to imagine how my interest could go fro zero to 60 reading a now old mid-Jan '20 headline about a pneumonia?, virus?, taking shape.

And finding out info, original info as best I could, laid in the shade what I thought was deep diving on all things big lawsuits.

In the beginning especially nobody in the area knew much, and let go of less for quite a while. The world's med sciences then became lazer focused from at least a hundred direction. And you're going through everybody learning about this virus as we went along.

So at first it was catch it all and watch for patterns.

Internet, news, hispitals, virologists, labs, Everyone & everything was saying words. And we began early reports & emerging data that may/maynot hold.

Eventually, for me it would become 'Where's the original source?' 'What's it's known bias?' 'Has this been replicated?' 'By who?' 'Who are they? What's their bias?' yadda yadda yadda

Eventually curating all that was to be heard or read into data that held up & people in or around directly focused on the virus saying similar. Further curating them to those who did not say 'This is what is.' You, know, telling me the full answer was now available... on an ever changing pandemic, had a now couple of years with it and looking back seemed to be keeping right with the changes. My most trusted saying here's the data, here are possible trajectories from what we see right now, and when new updated science brought new data they said so.

And when they don't know or don't have enough data...say so loud and firmly so as not to be misunderstood.

Not sure which ones RoneKiln is listening to, but I'm currently listening to Dr. Robert Malone's interview with Joe Rogan on Spotify.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

Thanks for that. I'll pull it up.
👵

[RoneKiln]

In addition to Malone I listened to John Abramson and Peter McCullough. I listened to some shorter things on YouTube as well but I don't remember their names.

None of them are an attempt at a comprehensive overview of what's going on. They primarily focus on specific problems they're trying to bring attention to.

I'm annoyed with every serious discussion I've heard on the risk from the vaccines in young boys. I'm open to the possibility the vaccine is slightly more dangerous to them than Covid. But it's still an incredibly small risk and they never discuss the benefits of herd resiliency.

It's easy for me to say this cause I don't have kids, but I think I'd accept the ridiculously tiny increase in risk to my kid to significantly reduce the risk he makes someone else sick with a possibly very dangerous illness. It seems a no brainer to me. But I've yet to hear that factored in when people start arguing over the benefit of the vaccine for young boys.

[Ever (Zombiepreparation)]

Thanks. I'll pull them up too
👵

[Crosscut]

I'm annoyed with every serious discussion I've heard on the risk from the vaccines in young boys. I'm open to the possibility the vaccine is slightly more dangerous to them than Covid. But it's still an incredibly small risk and they never discuss the benefits of herd resiliency.

It's easy for me to say this cause I don't have kids, but I think I'd accept the ridiculously tiny increase in risk to my kid to significantly reduce the risk he makes someone else sick with a possibly very dangerous illness. It seems a no brainer to me. But I've yet to hear that factored in when people start arguing over the benefit of the vaccine for young boys.

Beyond the risk of severe adverse events to the vaccine, near term or long term, my inner conspiracy theorist worries about the impact of near universal vaccination with leaky vaccines and a constantly mutating virus. 

What was the uncommon 'breakthrough' infections with Alpha is now much more common with Delta and Omicron, so much so that the narrative that vaccination "reduces infection and transmission" has largely been dropped and replaced with "protects against severe illness, hospitalizations, and deaths".   Seems to me there's a non-zero risk that a highly virulent strain that would normally burn itself out by killing the host might live (and be spread) by the vaccinated, with the worst case being a Marek's disease type mutation(s) developing where it's nearly 100% lethal to the unvaccinated.  What would governments and a few pharmaceutical companies do if they controlled the manufacturing and distribution of a drug that you'll die if you can't obtain?   


Because vaccination does not prevent infection with the virus, Marek's is still transmissible from vaccinated flocks to other birds, including the wild bird population. The first Marek's disease vaccine was introduced in 1970. The disease would cause mild paralysis, with the only identifiable lesions being in neural tissue. Mortality of chickens infected with Marek's disease was quite low. Current strains of Marek virus, decades after the first vaccine was introduced, cause lymphoma formation throughout the chicken's body and mortality rates have reached 100% in unvaccinated chickens. The Marek's disease vaccine is a "leaky vaccine", which means that only the symptoms of the disease are prevented.[12] Infection of the host and the transmission of the virus are not inhibited by the vaccine. This contrasts with most other vaccines, where infection of the host is prevented. Under normal conditions, highly virulent strains of the virus are not selected. A highly virulent strain would kill the host before the virus would have an opportunity to transmit to other potential hosts and replicate. Thus, less virulent strains are selected. These strains are virulent enough to induce symptoms but not enough to kill the host, allowing further transmission. However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains.[13] The vaccine's inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine.

The evolution of Marek's disease due to vaccination has had a profound effect on the poultry industry. All chickens across the globe are now vaccinated against Marek's disease (birds hatched in private flocks for laying or exhibition are rarely vaccinated). Highly virulent strains have been selected to the point that any chicken that is unvaccinated will die if infected.

[CG]

I'm annoyed with every serious discussion I've heard on the risk from the vaccines in young boys. I'm open to the possibility the vaccine is slightly more dangerous to them than Covid. But it's still an incredibly small risk and they never discuss the benefits of herd resiliency.

It's easy for me to say this cause I don't have kids, but I think I'd accept the ridiculously tiny increase in risk to my kid to significantly reduce the risk he makes someone else sick with a possibly very dangerous illness. It seems a no brainer to me. But I've yet to hear that factored in when people start arguing over the benefit of the vaccine for young boys.

The problem is, we don't know that it's a ridiculously tiny increase in risk.  What if it's causing cardiac problems that will only be found years down the road because they're not currently symptomatic?  Have they figured out what about it causes the changes in menstrual cycles in females?  I'm not sure what "herd resiliency" is, but since you can still transmit the virus after being fully vaccinated, I don't see protecting others as a reason to possibly do untold damage on an entire generation of children and young adults.

[RoneKiln]

I'm annoyed with every serious discussion I've heard on the risk from the vaccines in young boys. I'm open to the possibility the vaccine is slightly more dangerous to them than Covid. But it's still an incredibly small risk and they never discuss the benefits of herd resiliency.

It's easy for me to say this cause I don't have kids, but I think I'd accept the ridiculously tiny increase in risk to my kid to significantly reduce the risk he makes someone else sick with a possibly very dangerous illness. It seems a no brainer to me. But I've yet to hear that factored in when people start arguing over the benefit of the vaccine for young boys.

The problem is, we don't know that it's a ridiculously tiny increase in risk.  What if it's causing cardiac problems that will only be found years down the road because they're not currently symptomatic?  Have they figured out what about it causes the changes in menstrual cycles in females?  I'm not sure what "herd resiliency" is, but since you can still transmit the virus after being fully vaccinated, I don't see protecting others as a reason to possibly do untold damage on an entire generation of children and young adults.

While the vaccine does not immunity, it does still reduce the likelihood of catching it, and shortens the length kf time you are contagious if you do catch it. So it is still providing a lot of resiliency and preventing a lot of infections. Same with the flu shot.

I agree there are also still legitimate concerns about the long term affects of all the vaccines. This is why I am in favor of open discourse and am very disappointed in how those raising valid concerns are attacked.

Crosscut, monopolies are a huge problem in the best of times. Your potential scenario is terrifying, and I think that even if it's an infinitively tiny risk, that risk should be discussed and contingency plans put in place to prevent it.

[Moab]

Ive been very sick for 2 months. Severe nausea and stomach cramps. Doctors cant figure out what it is. Had an endoscopy and colonoscopy in august. Then xrays and a catscan last week. Nothing showed up. So im still in a miserable holding pattern.

My wife is really sick too. But with strep this last couole weeks.

I found at home covid tests for $15 locally. I bought 4 of them. Wife and i both tested negative.

[Anianna]

Ive been very sick for 2 months. Severe nausea and stomach cramps. Doctors cant figure out what it is. Had an endoscopy and colonoscopy in august. Then xrays and a catscan last week. Nothing showed up. So im still in a miserable holding pattern.

My wife is really sick too. But with strep this last couole weeks.

I found at home covid tests for $15 locally. I bought 4 of them. Wife and i both tested negative.

I have a condition called dysautonomia.  Mine comes as a comorbidity with a genetic connective tissue disorder I have, but I have encountered in our support groups an influx of new dysautonomia sufferers who have been diagnosed following covid.  Stomach cramping and nausea are some of the symptoms I live with pretty much always.  If your scans don't provide an answer, perhaps ask your doctor if you can get a referral to a neurologist who can determine if you have acquired a dysfunction of the autonomic nervous system following covid.

[Moab]

Ive been very sick for 2 months. Severe nausea and stomach cramps. Doctors cant figure out what it is. Had an endoscopy and colonoscopy in august. Then xrays and a catscan last week. Nothing showed up. So im still in a miserable holding pattern.

My wife is really sick too. But with strep this last couole weeks.

I found at home covid tests for $15 locally. I bought 4 of them. Wife and i both tested negative.

I have a condition called dysautonomia.  Mine comes as a comorbidity with a genetic connective tissue disorder I have, but I have encountered in our support groups an influx of new dysautonomia sufferers who have been diagnosed following covid.  Stomach cramping and nausea are some of the symptoms I live with pretty much always.  If your scans don't provide an answer, perhaps ask your doctor if you can get a referral to a neurologist who can determine if you have acquired a dysfunction of the autonomic nervous system following covid.

Wow. I will do that.

[SCBrian]

Ive been very sick for 2 months. Severe nausea and stomach cramps. Doctors cant figure out what it is. Had an endoscopy and colonoscopy in august. Then xrays and a catscan last week. Nothing showed up. So im still in a miserable holding pattern.

My wife is really sick too. But with strep this last couole weeks.

I found at home covid tests for $15 locally. I bought 4 of them. Wife and i both tested negative.

Hope you feel better. 
The scopes should have ruled out Diverticulitis and a few others, but what about Celiac disease?  Have you tried working on an elimination diet?

[Moab]

Ive been very sick for 2 months. Severe nausea and stomach cramps. Doctors cant figure out what it is. Had an endoscopy and colonoscopy in august. Then xrays and a catscan last week. Nothing showed up. So im still in a miserable holding pattern.

My wife is really sick too. But with strep this last couole weeks.

I found at home covid tests for $15 locally. I bought 4 of them. Wife and i both tested negative.

Hope you feel better. 
The scopes should have ruled out Diverticulitis and a few others, but what about Celiac disease?  Have you tried working on an elimination diet?

Been working on it. First 5 weeks they thought it was my diabetes med. Which is mainly why its taken 2 months to diagnose. Monday im going carb/celiac free.

But half the day yesterday and this morning ive been ok. So we will see.

[Anianna]

In late January, weekly Omicron deaths exceeded the record high for previous Covid deaths of any variant, including Delta.  Omicron symptoms remain generally milder, but it just spreads so much more.  When calculated per 1,000 cases, there were nine deaths per 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge compared to 13 deaths per 1,000 cases during the Delta surge and 16 deaths per 1,000 cases during last winter's surge. 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm7104e4_w

[MacWa77ace]

In late January, weekly Omicron deaths exceeded the record high for previous Covid deaths of any variant, including Delta.  Omicron symptoms remain generally milder, but it just spreads so much more.  When calculated per 1,000 cases, there were nine deaths per 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge compared to 13 deaths per 1,000 cases during the Delta surge and 16 deaths per 1,000 cases during last winter's surge. 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm7104e4_w

Not sure why, but your quote doesn't match the report's data. And in doing an F3 search of the CDC webpage article I can't find the word exceeded anywhere on the page. If you do an F3 search on the word 'previous', almost every sentence its used in states that Omicron is less or lower than other variants virulence with the exception of transmissibility and hospitalization. But those aren't indicators of severity.

9 per 1000 is lower than the other two data sets so how can it exceed the record high? [9 is less than 13 or 16]

I did find these from the CDC report:

SUMMARY
Despite Omicron seeing the highest reported numbers of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations during the pandemic, disease severity indicators, including length of stay, ICU admission, and death, were lower than during previous pandemic peaks.

..and deaths (nine per 1,000 cases [lagged by 3 weeks]) during the Omicron period were lower than those observed during the winter 2020–21 (92, 68, and 16 respectively) and Delta (167, 78, and 13, respectively) periods. Further, among hospitalized COVID-19 patients from 199 U.S. hospitals, the mean length of stay and percentages who were admitted to an ICU, received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and died while in the hospital were lower during the Omicron period than during previous periods. COVID-19 disease severity appears to be lower during the Omicron period than during previous periods of high transmission, likely related to higher vaccination coverage,† which reduces disease severity (4), lower virulence of the Omicron variant (3,5,6), and infection-acquired immunity (3,7).

[Anianna]

In late January, weekly Omicron deaths exceeded the record high for previous Covid deaths of any variant, including Delta.  Omicron symptoms remain generally milder, but it just spreads so much more.  When calculated per 1,000 cases, there were nine deaths per 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge compared to 13 deaths per 1,000 cases during the Delta surge and 16 deaths per 1,000 cases during last winter's surge. 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm?s_cid=mm7104e4_w

Not sure why, but your quote doesn't match the report's data. And in doing an F3 search of the CDC webpage article I can't find the word exceeded anywhere on the page. If you do an F3 search on the word 'previous', almost every sentence its used in states that Omicron is less or lower than other variants virulence with the exception of transmissibility and hospitalization. But those aren't indicators of severity.

9 per 1000 is lower than the other two data sets so how can it exceed the record high? [9 is less than 13 or 16]

I did find these from the CDC report:

SUMMARY
Despite Omicron seeing the highest reported numbers of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations during the pandemic, disease severity indicators, including length of stay, ICU admission, and death, were lower than during previous pandemic peaks.

..and deaths (nine per 1,000 cases [lagged by 3 weeks]) during the Omicron period were lower than those observed during the winter 2020–21 (92, 68, and 16 respectively) and Delta (167, 78, and 13, respectively) periods. Further, among hospitalized COVID-19 patients from 199 U.S. hospitals, the mean length of stay and percentages who were admitted to an ICU, received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and died while in the hospital were lower during the Omicron period than during previous periods. COVID-19 disease severity appears to be lower during the Omicron period than during previous periods of high transmission, likely related to higher vaccination coverage,† which reduces disease severity (4), lower virulence of the Omicron variant (3,5,6), and infection-acquired immunity (3,7).

That's not a direct quote.  Allow me to clarify.  The total deaths for the week from Covid were more than the total deaths recorded for previous weeks with other strains.  More people died of omicron in that one week than died from other variants in other weeks.  That part isn't from that study, it was from an article that is behind a paywall, so I didn't include the link.  If you compare the highest number of deaths in one week from Delta to the highest number of deaths in one week from Omicron, you see that Omicron had a higher total.

The second part, the 9 per 1,000 from the study, demonstrates that the percentage of deaths compared to cases with Omicron remains low.  The death rate is lower with Omicron, but overall total deaths are higher because Omicron is so much more infectious.  There are only more total deaths because there are so many more cases.

[flybynight]

https://youtu.be/tB1ZSa4bHn4