Curious Events of Note with China

Started by Uomo Senza Nome, October 20, 2023, 10:44:01 AM

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Uomo Senza Nome

I have various indicators that I use for me that indicate to me the likelihood of a major event occurring. The long awaited invasion of Taiwan hit a number of them this week. I am not of course suggesting an invasion is imminent but maybe we have slipped a little closer to it.

USMC calls for deployment of battalion of U.S. marines in Taiwan (msn.com)

Should such a deployment take place it would be a huge indicator.

China's Sell-off of US Treasury Bonds: A Shift on the Global Financial Chessboard (msn.com) 

There are a number of reasons why China might want to sell off US Bonds mentioned in the article. Not mentioned however; is that they would need to dump US assets to avoid them being frozen or seized during a war. Note however they are also dumping stocks as well.

China's US$1.35 trillion sovereign fund boosts stake in Big Four banks, fuelling speculation on stock market intervention (msn.com) 

Foreign investors are exiting China at a record pace forcing China to invest internally to prop up their markets. This hasn't happened before, even when China went through some struggles with their economy.

Which brings us into the next point

China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict (msn.com) 

They are openly, actively discussing ways to avoid US sanctions. Still, this is all a lot of talk until China starts building a lot of boats....

China Ramps Up Building Ships That Could Help it Invade Taiwan (msn.com) 

"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes 'em afraid. "

"There's plain few problems can't be solved with a little sweat and hard work."

Uomo Senza Nome

#1
Their antagonism of Taiwan and other countries in the region increased simultaneously. This has hastened the exit of capital from the Chinese markets, which has picked up steam in recent days. Markets are normally an excellent indicator of when conflict will arise. In response, China has begun a charm offensive of sorts. Led by Xi and supported by other public figures who are also government employees. It's all ice cream and puppy dogs and nothing to do with tech transfers.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202310/t20231026_11168774.html

Leading Chinese academic and cultural figures call for Sino-US 'people power and friendship' (msn.com)

In addition to the charm offensive the ministers of State and Defense have both been officially sacked after not being seen in public for two months.  Kudos to China for not trying to teach them how to BASE jump without a parachute.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-ready-to-cooperate-with-u-s-as-it-affects-fate-of-humanity-xi-jinping/ar-AA1iQ3Cn?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=8dc0641db137400a8594a93c9d74591b&ei=28

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would cost millions of lives at best and could go into the hundreds of millions depending upon what happens after that.

China would also prefer that the US not be involved with their conflict with the Philippines, which is odd since everyone knows the PI has a mutual defense pact with the US. It is also odd given that China is trying to involve itself in the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Anyone who has ever seen the hilarious "9 dash line" would understand. 

China says US has no right to get involved in its problems with Philippines | Reuters
"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes 'em afraid. "

"There's plain few problems can't be solved with a little sweat and hard work."

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