2021 Hurricane Season

[MPMalloy]

This was released today:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFAXSazk5sI

[RickOShea]

[Raptor]

Looks like east coast for these 2 also.

[RickOShea]

[RickOShea]

[RickOShea]

[sheddi]

TS Grace looks to be heading in Raptor's direction. Hopefully he won't get to soak test his back-up generators again!

[Raptor]

TS Grace is on course for Mexico.


The site Windy.com (which BTW IMO is an excellent site) shows clearly what is steering Grace.

The first picture are the surface winds (at the maximum point of disturbance) and the second shows what is steering Grace at FL 340 (~34,000 ft @ std pressure) there is a very strong steering air current that is keeping Grace out of the GOM. Both markers are at the same point.

[RickOShea]

[sheddi]

So it's roughly three days away from NOLA? Time for locals to top off their tanks and start tying things down?

[Raptor]

So it's roughly three days away from NOLA? Time for locals to top off their tanks and start tying things down?

Naaahhh!

Most will wait until Sunday AM when they all will decide to fill up at the same time.

Then they will go buy milk, eggs, cold cuts and other items in need of refrigeration... that & bottled water, toilet paper and Pop Tarts.

[flybynight]

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast at or
near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, where there is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday,
especially along the coast of Louisiana.  Storm Surge and Hurricane
watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later
tonight or Friday morning.  Interests in these areas should closely
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 18.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  27/0600Z 19.7N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  27/1800Z 21.7N  82.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
36H  28/0600Z 23.7N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H  28/1800Z 25.6N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  29/0600Z 27.2N  88.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  29/1800Z 28.9N  90.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  30/1800Z 31.9N  91.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/1800Z 34.6N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[sheddi]

60H  29/0600Z 27.2N  88.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  29/1800Z 28.9N  90.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

110mph winds at landfall? Not good.

I see there's now a hurricane watch in place for the LA and MS coasts.

[CG]

So...what you're telling me is that Texas should go back to regular quarantine drinking, not hurricane drinking?

[sheddi]

I've merged the Hurricane Ida posts into a single topic, for your convenience.

Hurricane Larry is out in the mid-Atlantic at present but might bother Bermuda in a week or so:



And there's an invest over north-western Nicaragua that might yet bring more trouble to the GoM.

[Cascade Failure]

Looks like east coast for these 2 also.

Nevermind, noted the date of your post.

[Raptor]

Heads up Houston!
It looks like Nicholas is taking aim somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. It will hit early in the week. If you are in that area you need to check your preps now.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150131.shtml?cone#contents

[sheddi]

Here's the current TS Nicholas cone map:



and rainfall forecast:

[Blast]

Bring it on!
-Blast

[MPMalloy]

Bring it on! -Blast

People say that......