The Road to World War III

Started by Uomo Senza Nome, May 29, 2024, 10:49:34 PM

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Uomo Senza Nome

Lot's of politics in here. I don't expect it to be an argument though. I'm not sure at what point WW III will actually be considered to be taking place. For our purposes we will say when the majority of the population of the planet is in a country that is involved in a major war.

European Theater:

The War in the Ukraine continue unabated. The Ukes are losing and pleading for intervention from NATO and any European countries that might listen. They also keep asking for permission to strike at targets inside of Russia. This is because Russia discovered through trial and error if they placed their logistics on their own territory that it couldn't be hit by the Ukes. The Ukes are exhausted by the war and getting desperate. Russia has also restarted their war industry with the backing of China, who is providing US designed electronics and Iran providing some production.

Russia has picked up thousands of foreign fighters from the Middle East and Africa to support their efforts. Mostly these are mercenaries, however Syria has sent organized units.

UK, Poland, France, The US-SEC-S and the Baltic States and a few others are all in favor of allowing the Ukes to use Western weapons in Russia. Germany and the POTUS are very much opposed, which is why it hasn't happened yet. Russia has said explicitly that they will invade the Baltics and capture them if NATO weapons are used on their soil. They have also threatened Poland explicitly with nuclear weapons, who responded using the US as a proxy by way of their nuclear weapons. 

Russia also appears to have designs on Swedish territory as well and seizing Gotland Island appears to be part of the plan? Not that it would really matter much. An invasion of the Batlics or Poland would trigger Article 5 and begin a huge war in Europe.

Some NATO equipment is badly under-performing there. The Ukes are especially unhappy with the 45-year-old M1 Tank which the Russians love to target with drone strikes because the armor is badly outdated. I couldn't help but notice that the armor appears to have only it's base armor and not the improved armor, not sure how much difference it would make as the drones target weak spots.

IF the Ukraine starts attacking targets inside of Russia with Western Weapons it remains to be seen if Putin will keep his war. If he does that a huge war will break out as it will trigger an Article 5 situation.


Pacific Theater

Obviously the big story here is China and Taiwan. The US is explicitly by law prohibited from interfering in a war between Taiwan and China. I have no doubt this is meaningless. Taiwan has the largest most modern chip production facilities in the world and if China seizes this the US would have a complete come apart. The curious thing here is that China didn't even try to pursue a friendly relationship with the US to prevent US involvement. Instead they simply began preparing for war about 20 years ago and have been playing the long game ever since.

The next largest problem is North Korea. IF they attack the 9th largest city in the world will likely burn to the ground within a few hours. That is just for starters. With substantial support from China they would be able to carry out operations for extended time and likely invade most of the peninsula.

Then there is the Dash-9 line. China is claiming huge amounts of offshore rights. They are attempting to woo and recruit the more advanced countries (Thailand, Indonesia) They have built huge fortifications, submarine sheds, the world's second largest navy and harass and intimidate many neighbors (Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Burma).

Any of these could serve as a trigger to a wide spread war in the Pacific. Likely all at once or in coordination with each other. Part of the problem for the area is that after the US defeated a nation in the area they would always encourage them to disarm, much like in Europe.

Russia also has designs on Japan, islands that are disputed so they can establish a warm water naval base.

The big question is India. They have the power and resources to swing things wildly one way or the other. To say that relations between the US-China-India are complex doesn't do it justice. I am guessing they don't want to be involved at all.

Middle Eastern Theater

In any situation where the US is too busy or over taxed to assist it's sole open ally in the region they become annihilated and/or go nuclear fast. Iran will soon have the Atomic bomb, likely within weeks. The question here is if they risk using it? 

Syria has been in a near constant state of civil war for 15 years. ISIS fell apart in Iraq but without anyone to counter that due to problems elsewhere they could easily bounce back. Never any shortages of crazy in the part of the world.

Another question is Turkey. They have a number of issues with their allies. They are also one of the most powerful members of NATO. They may get wooed by Russia and decide to resolve their issues with their former allies.

Other Theaters

Africa has much greater potential to get super killy. The US was belatedly trying to make friends there the last 25 years or so but hasn't made much progress. Last month the government in Niger was replaced by a government friendly to Russia and Nigeria kicked out 1000 US soldiers who were stationed there.

Countries across the continent, including Chad, Central African Republic, Mali and Libya, have turned toward Russia for security assistance. This is because Russia makes no judgements on civil rights issues with their governments and freely grease the palms of the leaders which is prohibited by US law. South Africa is falling apart and has really cozened up to Russia.

China has completely outplayed the US in Africa in the last four years. They are the largest trading partner for the whole continent. They have made huge levels of investment providing for millions of jobs, infrastructure improvements and quality of life improvements. They are conducting all kinds of joint military operations there with local governments. I'm barely scratching the surface here. Let's just say this ship has sailed. The issue here is not facing a local army in Africa. The issue is not getting any support from Africa.

BRICS - The BRICS have recently created their own currency to supplant the US dollar. The only BRICS to condemn the Russia's invasion of the Ukraine was Brazil. This hasn't stopped them from doing business.
"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes 'em afraid. "

"There's plain few problems can't be solved with a little sweat and hard work."

Uomo Senza Nome

Rather quietly today the POTUS authorized the use of NATO weapons in Russia on a limited basis. If the Ukraine uses them it remains to be seen if Putin will keep his word. IF he does, hold on to your undies because shit will be going down fast.

I am guessing that his intel analysts told him that Putin WON'T keep his word and subsequently begin attacks on NATO but we don't know what will happen until it happens.
"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes 'em afraid. "

"There's plain few problems can't be solved with a little sweat and hard work."

Lambykins

This is such a good read on the world situation as it currently stands!
Thank you for posting this.
"But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career, skills that make me a nightmare for people like you." Taken

"There is no such thing as a fair fight. Fight dirty EVERY time. Dirty fighters win, fair fighters lose. Every fight is a fight for your life. Fight to win. Fight dirty." My dad

"Am I dangerous? Ask any of my surviving exes..." Me

DarkAxel

South Asia is also another potential flashpoint. Not just the usual India/Pakistan stuff, but India and China have fought battles recently on their disputed border.

Uomo Senza Nome

Quote from: DarkAxel on May 31, 2024, 01:54:40 PMSouth Asia is also another potential flashpoint. Not just the usual India/Pakistan stuff, but India and China have fought battles recently on their disputed border.
I don't know enough about China-India relations to do it justice. From a self interest standpoint all of the autocracies seem to be lining up with China - Russia so I would lay even money on India going that way as well. There is a huge caveat.  

Globalism was supposed to defeat autocracy through enlightened self interest, much the way Soviets lost. But that was never by design and we have moved away from that ourselves. The real effect of globalism was to power the autocracies with mass communications, technology and manufacturing; and instead they simply used those tools to become better dictators. If India wants to maintain it's democracy at some point they will have to fight for it. But it will have to come from the people.
"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes 'em afraid. "

"There's plain few problems can't be solved with a little sweat and hard work."

Uomo Senza Nome

Pacific Theater

President Marcos of the Philippines has set a "red line" for war with China which is the death of a citizen. Like many such red lines it is likely bluster. The Philippines wouldn't be able to fight China in any kind of war. While they have lined up with the US they are getting little for their efforts. The Philippines has a close relationship with the US on many other levels.


Marcos sets 'red line' with Beijing over South China Sea harassment (msn.com)
Marcos sets 'red line' with Beijing over South China Sea harassment (msn.com)

In either a weird micro aggression or a dry run for a biological attack the Norks launched hundreds of balloons filled with trash into South Korea.

N.Korea sends over 200 balloons carrying trash over to S.Korea | Watch (msn.com)



European Theater

Putin is calling for "total war" among the population in Russia as well as another call up. The WITU was not mentioned as a reason for the call up. Paired with the US and German approval to use NATO weapons inside of Russia this seems to fodder for Putin to make another call up. It seems unlikely that Putin would be able to open another front in the war without considerable help from an ally.

Putin's Mobilisation Call to Officials Signals Escalation Without Explicit Mention of Ukraine (msn.com)
Putin's Mobilisation Call to Officials Signals Escalation Without Explicit Mention of Ukraine (msn.com)

Hungary has been a shaky NATO ally the last few years as Orban is a fan of Putin. They are pushing back on aid for the Ukes.

Hungary's Orbán pushes back on EU and NATO proposals to further assist Ukraine (msn.com)
Hungary's Orbán pushes back on EU and NATO proposals to further assist Ukraine (msn.com)

 Poland has announced they will construct a Defensive line along their Eastern border. This appears to be a means to reassure their populace. Such lines tend to perform poorly in real life for numerous reasons. They can be easily studied for a means to defeat them, bypassed, isolated and cut off. They tend to do more harm than good as they provide a level of false confidence and security and more effective means of defense are ignored.

Poland Fortifies Eastern Border with Cutting-Edge "East Shield" Defense System (msn.com)
Poland Fortifies Eastern Border with Cutting-Edge "East Shield" Defense System (msn.com)

 Middle Eastern Theater

Houthis launched a missile attack against the US Air Craft Carrier Eisenhower. The US has provided no verification of the attack.

Houthi rebels claim missile attack against USS Eisenhower (msn.com)

In a possible bright spot the US has negotiated a cease fire deal between Hamas that has yet to be approved by either party but it is under discussions and consideration.

Biden announces Israel has offered a three-part plan to end the war in Gaza (msn.com)

The US Aid mission to Gaza has failed. The pier that was built to provide aid has been destroyed and practically no aid has been delivered.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/05/why-did-us-humanitarian-aid-pier-gaza-fail

The Latest | Israeli troops are fighting in the center of Rafah as southern Gaza invasion widens (msn.com)

Everywhere Else

The US has declared Kenya a "Major Ally". This should come as a surprise to no one. Kenya has provided thousands of mercenaries for manpower to the US for more than 20 years in deployments around the world. They fill a variety of security functions.  Now that the US has a black friend I'm not sure that makes them woke or not.

US names Kenya major ally as Russian influence grows (msn.com)
"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes 'em afraid. "

"There's plain few problems can't be solved with a little sweat and hard work."

Uomo Senza Nome

European Theater

Russia Responded to the flip of NATO Nations (including the US) of use of weapons on Russian soil with a promise of going nuclear.

QuoteThe prominent Russian official went on to warn the West not to underestimate Moscow's readiness to use tactical nuclear weapons.
Medvedev suggested Russia could strike hostile countries with strategic weapons, saying: "This is, alas, neither intimidation nor bluffing.
"The current military conflict with the West is developing according to the worst possible scenario. There is a constant escalation when it comes to the firepower of NATO weapons being used. Therefore, nobody today can rule out the conflict's transition to its final stage."
Russia warns of nuclear war with NATO after Ukraine's ATACMS strikes: 'We're not bluffing' (msn.com)
Russia warns of nuclear war with NATO after Ukraine's ATACMS strikes: 'We're not bluffing' (msn.com)


The Czech Republic now sees the Ukraine war as a black swan event. This is defined as Russia having a come apart. The problem with Russia having a come apart will be how explosive it is. This also seems very unlikely. Putin has greatly consolidated power and gathered allies all around the planet in the last two years. They still have been unable to win. However it is a war of attrition and Ukraine will be the first loser.

QuoteThe diplomat's comments reflect a significant shift in mood from last year's "great euphoria," anticipating a counteroffensive, to the current realism, where neither the aggressor nor the victim possesses sufficient strength to decisively win the war. However, Stulík emphasized that Ukraine's fight for independence provides it with a moral superiority that the Russian army and society lack.
The notion of a 'black swan' event, a term used to describe an unpredictable event that could have profound ramifications, was central to Stulík's forecast. "Therefore, it seems to me that at some point we will see a 'black swan' scenario for Russia. Then everything in Russia will come to an end," he declared. His belief that Russia is a "fragile structure that can be easily broken" suggests an underlying vulnerability that could precipitate a sudden change in the war's trajectory.

Pushing ''red lines'' for Ukraine and a scenario of Russia's defeat: An interview with a Czech diplomat | European Pravda (eurointegration.com.ua)
Pushing ''red lines'' for Ukraine and a scenario of Russia's defeat: An interview with a Czech diplomat | European Pravda (eurointegration.com.ua)

Hungary did stage a peace march. I guess everyone else forgot what it was like.

Orbán stages a 'peace march' in Hungary in a show of strength before European Parliament election (msn.com)
Orbán stages a 'peace march' in Hungary in a show of strength before European Parliament election (msn.com) 

Estonia is preparing for the inevitable.

We have no Plan B if Ukraine falls, says Estonia (msn.com) 


Pacific Theater - East Asia

The US is attempting to woo Mongolia away from China. Given their location in the world this seems at best an unlikely strategy.
Still, it is annoying both Russia and China. If Mongolia flipped for the US it could theoretically require large numbers of troops to pacify. I believe it is much, much more likely they will remain neutral and try to stay out of the conflict. Mongolia's military is tiny and badly equipped. They don't have a navy or an airforce.

U.S. Ties Worry Russia: Lavrov Calls for Ally to Clarify Its Allegiances (msn.com)

The USSECDEF has been on tour through the region trying to shore up allies and build new relationships as well as engage with China. The Chinese response was telling:


QuoteIn the question-and-answer session, a Chinese military official asked Austin if the US was seeking to build a NATO-like bloc in Asia and suggested the expansion of the European alliance (NATO) was a key reason Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. 


"That was two-plus years ago," Austin replied. "He has not achieved any of his strategic objectives to this point."
The old SEATO compact has been defunct since 1977 and was never particularly effective for a host of reasons, mostly because nations in that region historically tend to not cooperate militarily with each other and see each other as competitors. Also at the time China was seen as a non-threat.


Pentagon Chief Touts China Talks, Efforts to Box Beijing In (msn.com)

Russia and Japan continue to break off ties and end various treaties. Japan has levied more sanctions against China as well.

Russia Upsets Japanese Leadership with Strategic Decisions (msn.com)
 

Middle East

The US sent some retaliatory air strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.

Yemen's Houthis say 16 killed as U.S. drops massive bunker-buster bomb (msn.com)
Yemen's Houthis say 16 killed as U.S. drops massive bunker-buster bomb (msn.com)

The US Navy has also extended their deployment in the region. This means that there will be a temporary surge as their back fill will be in place as well. 

Pentagon chief extends deployment of aircraft carrier, ships in the Red Sea as Houthi attacks go on (msn.com)

Xi is hosting a ME forum with the heads of most ME countries (sans Israel).

Xi Hosts China-Arab States Cooperation Forum in Beijing | Watch (msn.com)

Everywhere Else

India may be building a carrier fleet to match China.

A bizarre comment stirred speculation India may try to match China's carrier fleet (msn.com)
A bizarre comment stirred speculation India may try to match China's carrier fleet (msn.com) 

Mexico now has the strongest military it has ever had in it's history. Any other day this might be strange as Mexico has no regional or international enemies and hasn't fought a war with another country in over 150 years, although there was some very limited involvement in WWII. However their relationship with the US puts them high on the target list of WWIII.

Watch Why Mexico Is Militarizing - Bloomberg
"It's what people know about themselves inside that makes 'em afraid. "

"There's plain few problems can't be solved with a little sweat and hard work."

Dabster

Great thread. I follow a lot of OSINT accounts in Twitter. It is incredible (and horrifying) to see all of these pieces in play.

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