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#91
What If...? / The Road to World War III
Last post by Uomo Senza Nome - May 29, 2024, 10:49:34 PM
Lot's of politics in here. I don't expect it to be an argument though. I'm not sure at what point WW III will actually be considered to be taking place. For our purposes we will say when the majority of the population of the planet is in a country that is involved in a major war.

European Theater:

The War in the Ukraine continue unabated. The Ukes are losing and pleading for intervention from NATO and any European countries that might listen. They also keep asking for permission to strike at targets inside of Russia. This is because Russia discovered through trial and error if they placed their logistics on their own territory that it couldn't be hit by the Ukes. The Ukes are exhausted by the war and getting desperate. Russia has also restarted their war industry with the backing of China, who is providing US designed electronics and Iran providing some production.

Russia has picked up thousands of foreign fighters from the Middle East and Africa to support their efforts. Mostly these are mercenaries, however Syria has sent organized units.

UK, Poland, France, The US-SEC-S and the Baltic States and a few others are all in favor of allowing the Ukes to use Western weapons in Russia. Germany and the POTUS are very much opposed, which is why it hasn't happened yet. Russia has said explicitly that they will invade the Baltics and capture them if NATO weapons are used on their soil. They have also threatened Poland explicitly with nuclear weapons, who responded using the US as a proxy by way of their nuclear weapons. 

Russia also appears to have designs on Swedish territory as well and seizing Gotland Island appears to be part of the plan? Not that it would really matter much. An invasion of the Batlics or Poland would trigger Article 5 and begin a huge war in Europe.

Some NATO equipment is badly under-performing there. The Ukes are especially unhappy with the 45-year-old M1 Tank which the Russians love to target with drone strikes because the armor is badly outdated. I couldn't help but notice that the armor appears to have only it's base armor and not the improved armor, not sure how much difference it would make as the drones target weak spots.

IF the Ukraine starts attacking targets inside of Russia with Western Weapons it remains to be seen if Putin will keep his war. If he does that a huge war will break out as it will trigger an Article 5 situation.


Pacific Theater

Obviously the big story here is China and Taiwan. The US is explicitly by law prohibited from interfering in a war between Taiwan and China. I have no doubt this is meaningless. Taiwan has the largest most modern chip production facilities in the world and if China seizes this the US would have a complete come apart. The curious thing here is that China didn't even try to pursue a friendly relationship with the US to prevent US involvement. Instead they simply began preparing for war about 20 years ago and have been playing the long game ever since.

The next largest problem is North Korea. IF they attack the 9th largest city in the world will likely burn to the ground within a few hours. That is just for starters. With substantial support from China they would be able to carry out operations for extended time and likely invade most of the peninsula.

Then there is the Dash-9 line. China is claiming huge amounts of offshore rights. They are attempting to woo and recruit the more advanced countries (Thailand, Indonesia) They have built huge fortifications, submarine sheds, the world's second largest navy and harass and intimidate many neighbors (Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Burma).

Any of these could serve as a trigger to a wide spread war in the Pacific. Likely all at once or in coordination with each other. Part of the problem for the area is that after the US defeated a nation in the area they would always encourage them to disarm, much like in Europe.

Russia also has designs on Japan, islands that are disputed so they can establish a warm water naval base.

The big question is India. They have the power and resources to swing things wildly one way or the other. To say that relations between the US-China-India are complex doesn't do it justice. I am guessing they don't want to be involved at all.

Middle Eastern Theater

In any situation where the US is too busy or over taxed to assist it's sole open ally in the region they become annihilated and/or go nuclear fast. Iran will soon have the Atomic bomb, likely within weeks. The question here is if they risk using it? 

Syria has been in a near constant state of civil war for 15 years. ISIS fell apart in Iraq but without anyone to counter that due to problems elsewhere they could easily bounce back. Never any shortages of crazy in the part of the world.

Another question is Turkey. They have a number of issues with their allies. They are also one of the most powerful members of NATO. They may get wooed by Russia and decide to resolve their issues with their former allies.

Other Theaters

Africa has much greater potential to get super killy. The US was belatedly trying to make friends there the last 25 years or so but hasn't made much progress. Last month the government in Niger was replaced by a government friendly to Russia and Nigeria kicked out 1000 US soldiers who were stationed there.

Countries across the continent, including Chad, Central African Republic, Mali and Libya, have turned toward Russia for security assistance. This is because Russia makes no judgements on civil rights issues with their governments and freely grease the palms of the leaders which is prohibited by US law. South Africa is falling apart and has really cozened up to Russia.

China has completely outplayed the US in Africa in the last four years. They are the largest trading partner for the whole continent. They have made huge levels of investment providing for millions of jobs, infrastructure improvements and quality of life improvements. They are conducting all kinds of joint military operations there with local governments. I'm barely scratching the surface here. Let's just say this ship has sailed. The issue here is not facing a local army in Africa. The issue is not getting any support from Africa.

BRICS - The BRICS have recently created their own currency to supplant the US dollar. The only BRICS to condemn the Russia's invasion of the Ukraine was Brazil. This hasn't stopped them from doing business.
#92
Current Events of Note / U.S., allies arrest Chinese na...
Last post by Uomo Senza Nome - May 29, 2024, 09:11:27 PM
One of the runners of the world's largest known botnet was captured in Singapore. Be careful with the freeware, especially if you don't have a lot of experience in these things.


U.S., allies arrest Chinese national behind global 911 S5 botnet (msn.com)
#93
Current Events of Note / Re: Russia is Engaged in Terro...
Last post by Uomo Senza Nome - May 29, 2024, 06:11:47 PM
Quote from: Crimson_Phoenix on May 29, 2024, 12:44:12 AM
Quote from: DarkAxel on May 28, 2024, 02:59:00 PM
Quote from: Anianna on May 27, 2024, 10:31:43 PM
QuoteThe covert operations have mostly been arsons or attempted arsons targeting a wide range of sites, including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and, most oddly, an Ikea store in Lithuania.

But people accused of being Russian operatives have also been arrested on charges of plotting attacks on U.S. military bases.

While the acts might appear random, American and European security officials say they are part of a concerted effort by Russia to slow arms transfers to Kyiv and create the appearance of growing European opposition to support for Ukraine. And the officials say Russia's military intelligence arm, the G.R.U., is leading the campaign.

But, also,

QuoteThe attacks, at least so far, have not interrupted the weapons flow to Ukraine, and indeed many of the targets are not directly related to the war. But some security officials say Russia is trying to sow fear and force European nations to add security throughout the weapons supply chain, adding costs and slowing the pace of transfers.

It sounds like they're actually helping more than hurting.  If those security procedures aren't in place already, the supply chain is vulnerable.  If GRU has anything at all to do with this, they're just fucking themselves over.  I'd like to say that makes no sense and this is complete bullshit, but there's a fuckton of shit going on right now that makes little to no sense.  I do feel that calling these feeble attempts at pestering Europe a "shadow war" is a bit hyperbolic and will have little, if anything, to do with potentially ensuing war.

What concerns me isn't the pinprick attacks being committed, but that there are Russian special operators loose in Europe. Right now they are being held back somewhat for plausible deniability reasons, but if the war spreads to NATO the gloves will come all the way off.

That would be very bad for all of us, since that would be the war Dad and his buddies trained for when they deployed to Germany in the 70s. Deploy conventional, but be fully ready for the mushrooms.
Given that there are zero controls at the border then it appears likely that assets are in place right now.
#94
Clothing & Footwear / Re: Lightweight wool shirt opt...
Last post by Optimist - May 29, 2024, 04:34:31 PM
I finally got around to putting my order in at Sierra got three different Smart Wool tees with different wool/polyester blends to test out and one Icebreaker. All were about $30 each, which was way cheaper than what I had been looking at originally. Unfortunately I did not get the free shipping because of Alaska.

Considering what they have available changes so rapidly I don't think I'll be able to get multiples of whatever one I like the best (if any of them work out) but it should at least give me an idea of what I want so I can put in an order for multiples of whatever in the future.
#95
Current Events of Note / Re: Russia is Engaged in Terro...
Last post by Crimson_Phoenix - May 29, 2024, 12:44:12 AM
Quote from: DarkAxel on May 28, 2024, 02:59:00 PM
Quote from: Anianna on May 27, 2024, 10:31:43 PM
QuoteThe covert operations have mostly been arsons or attempted arsons targeting a wide range of sites, including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and, most oddly, an Ikea store in Lithuania.

But people accused of being Russian operatives have also been arrested on charges of plotting attacks on U.S. military bases.

While the acts might appear random, American and European security officials say they are part of a concerted effort by Russia to slow arms transfers to Kyiv and create the appearance of growing European opposition to support for Ukraine. And the officials say Russia's military intelligence arm, the G.R.U., is leading the campaign.

But, also,

QuoteThe attacks, at least so far, have not interrupted the weapons flow to Ukraine, and indeed many of the targets are not directly related to the war. But some security officials say Russia is trying to sow fear and force European nations to add security throughout the weapons supply chain, adding costs and slowing the pace of transfers.

It sounds like they're actually helping more than hurting.  If those security procedures aren't in place already, the supply chain is vulnerable.  If GRU has anything at all to do with this, they're just fucking themselves over.  I'd like to say that makes no sense and this is complete bullshit, but there's a fuckton of shit going on right now that makes little to no sense.  I do feel that calling these feeble attempts at pestering Europe a "shadow war" is a bit hyperbolic and will have little, if anything, to do with potentially ensuing war.

What concerns me isn't the pinprick attacks being committed, but that there are Russian special operators loose in Europe. Right now they are being held back somewhat for plausible deniability reasons, but if the war spreads to NATO the gloves will come all the way off.

That would be very bad for all of us, since that would be the war Dad and his buddies trained for when they deployed to Germany in the 70s. Deploy conventional, but be fully ready for the mushrooms.
#96
Current Events of Note / Re: Russia is Engaged in Terro...
Last post by Crimson_Phoenix - May 29, 2024, 12:42:33 AM
Quote from: Anianna on May 27, 2024, 10:31:43 PM
QuoteThe covert operations have mostly been arsons or attempted arsons targeting a wide range of sites, including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and, most oddly, an Ikea store in Lithuania.

But people accused of being Russian operatives have also been arrested on charges of plotting attacks on U.S. military bases.

While the acts might appear random, American and European security officials say they are part of a concerted effort by Russia to slow arms transfers to Kyiv and create the appearance of growing European opposition to support for Ukraine. And the officials say Russia's military intelligence arm, the G.R.U., is leading the campaign.

But, also,

QuoteThe attacks, at least so far, have not interrupted the weapons flow to Ukraine, and indeed many of the targets are not directly related to the war. But some security officials say Russia is trying to sow fear and force European nations to add security throughout the weapons supply chain, adding costs and slowing the pace of transfers.

It sounds like they're actually helping more than hurting.  If those security procedures aren't in place already, the supply chain is vulnerable.  If GRU has anything at all to do with this, they're just fucking themselves over.  I'd like to say that makes no sense and this is complete bullshit, but there's a fuckton of shit going on right now that makes little to no sense.  I do feel that calling these feeble attempts at pestering Europe a "shadow war" is a bit hyperbolic and will have little, if anything, to do with potentially ensuing war.

That's the thing about failed covert attacks getting caught. Blufor will reexamine their security procedures and find and plug any gaps possible to prevent another exploitation. They may plug holes Redfor never knew about.
#97
Current Events of Note / Re: Russia is Engaged in Terro...
Last post by Uomo Senza Nome - May 28, 2024, 08:06:52 PM
Quote from: DarkAxel on May 28, 2024, 02:59:00 PM
Quote from: Anianna on May 27, 2024, 10:31:43 PM
QuoteThe covert operations have mostly been arsons or attempted arsons targeting a wide range of sites, including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and, most oddly, an Ikea store in Lithuania.

But people accused of being Russian operatives have also been arrested on charges of plotting attacks on U.S. military bases.

While the acts might appear random, American and European security officials say they are part of a concerted effort by Russia to slow arms transfers to Kyiv and create the appearance of growing European opposition to support for Ukraine. And the officials say Russia's military intelligence arm, the G.R.U., is leading the campaign.

But, also,

QuoteThe attacks, at least so far, have not interrupted the weapons flow to Ukraine, and indeed many of the targets are not directly related to the war. But some security officials say Russia is trying to sow fear and force European nations to add security throughout the weapons supply chain, adding costs and slowing the pace of transfers.

It sounds like they're actually helping more than hurting.  If those security procedures aren't in place already, the supply chain is vulnerable.  If GRU has anything at all to do with this, they're just fucking themselves over.  I'd like to say that makes no sense and this is complete bullshit, but there's a fuckton of shit going on right now that makes little to no sense.  I do feel that calling these feeble attempts at pestering Europe a "shadow war" is a bit hyperbolic and will have little, if anything, to do with potentially ensuing war.

What concerns me isn't the pinprick attacks being committed, but that there are Russian special operators loose in Europe. Right now they are being held back somewhat for plausible deniability reasons, but if the war spreads to NATO the gloves will come all the way off.
A Lusitania/ USS Maine/ Pearl Harbor/9/11 type event or several of them will be needed to light the candle. Right now nobody in the population wants war with Russia.
#98
Current Events of Note / Re: A tiny glimpse of my local...
Last post by TACAIR - May 28, 2024, 07:36:42 PM
"teens' out of control.   No longer any fear of punishment....

NJ shore town closes boardwalk and declares state of emergency after chaos over 'unruly' teens on Memorial Day weekend (nypost.com)
NJ shore town closes boardwalk and declares state of emergency after chaos over 'unruly' teens on Memorial Day weekend (nypost.com)
#99
Current Events of Note / Re: A tiny glimpse of my local...
Last post by eugenenine - May 28, 2024, 06:04:17 PM
They will get you out of a very localized issue but not enough range for a bugout. And once you have gotten out of that local area your still faced with a bike with a dead battery.
#100
Current Events of Note / Re: A tiny glimpse of my local...
Last post by Moab - May 28, 2024, 05:58:44 PM
Quote from: eugenenine on May 28, 2024, 04:54:09 PMI wouldn't say nice for a bugout, they usually don't have very much range and then when the battery goes dead they are heavy.
I'll keep my human powered bike https://connect.garmin.com/modern/activity/15576821809
Ya. Not a daily driver. Just something to get you out of Dodge quickly and silently. I think the ones that are more bike than ebike are best for that.
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