Threat pyramid from people in SHTF

[Ghost]

Sorry, didn't see a exact place to post this one, mods please move if needed.

As the title says. A friend of mine who is fairly liberal but sufficiently prep minded (don't ask) stated "yeah we'll what happens when highly trained forces come to take away your stuff?" Ignoring that for a moment but consider it as a mind exercise. Just how likely are threats in TEOTWAWKI?

Note I'm approaching this from the basic assumption that id shit gets truly bad kiss gasoline goodbye to any large degree.

Likewise I'm assuming it's societal breakdown due to a pandemic far greater than what we saw but missiles aren't flying; ie population reduction worldwide, break down or LAO and basic services.

Threats in order from most lethal but least likely.
1. Ex special forces
2. Ex military forces
3. Ex SWAT forces
4. Ex police forces
5. Criminal gangs
6. Trained survivalists/peppers
7. Above average citizen in reasonable health (which could be rare in the western world)
8. Golden Horde/Zombies

At a glance some of these are likely to be quite low in numbers say special forces. A former trained individual? Sure. A platoon/troop/gaggle of them? I'm thinking unlikely.

Military, SWAT and police forces and their training could in some ways be counter productive, especially if you are like me avoiding having to fire my weapons is a high priority for a number of reasons. I'm retreating from nearly any fight I can in SHTF if for no other reason is there isn't any functioning emergency rooms. This is not to say such skills are useless, far from it but say the US Army? It functions the way it does now due to a long logistical tail that will likely not be there post collapse.

Point I'm making and for the sake of discussion: what are the thoughts on the threat pyramid posed  by people post collapse? Directionally this makes sense to me, interesed to hear others thoughts.

[Lambykins]

You are forgetting one of the most dangerous...
People with little left to lose but something to protect.
ex: parents, grandparents, etc.
Threaten a child in front of their parent or grandparent. Even a 110 lb petite woman can cause severe damage to a 200 lb, 6'3" man if she is protecting her child. I've seen it happen.
A parent looking for food/water for their starving child...yeah, they are going to be relentless.
As for the EX in front of your SF, LEOs, etc...the gov't. will hang on until they can't hold on any more. There may be organized units sanctioned to act by the gov't. Executives orders being what they are, these units may have the power to terminate civilians to achieve their aims.

[Raptor]

Interesting topic.

IMO the "EX" you mentioned are likely initially to be quite a problem. IMO in a true SHTF situation the .gov will try and retain their power as long as possible. They will use the "good of the people" as the excuse to do all manner of things that are in their own best interest as opposed to the people they claim to help.

That said as their power wanes they simply reduce their area of influence.

If you look at NOLA Government in LA during Katrina you will see that happened on a local level. IMO that is the model to consider.

[MacWa77ace]

Maybe just add the word Personnel to the title since it seems we're focusing on people only [if we include #8] in our pyramid. [if you want to keep this about personnel and not other threat pyramids.]

Your entire list is really of people we should be able to see coming if we're not texting, and already have a plan for them.

I think the top of the pyramid would be the unexpected attack from people you know.

First would be trusted people/family who will turn on you to get your 5#!+. No one knows what I've got except the people who live in my house and they don't even know everything.
Next your neighbors who you may know or loaned tools to that will try to take your 5#!+.
Strangers or acquaintances at a communal food/water/supply source that look perfectly green but go to red for whatever reason and take everyone's stuff.
Lone amateur sniper trying to get your stuff.

Raptor, those Katrina stories had me making a bunch of contingencies for bugouts and govt/local/vigilante roadblock/checkpoints.

[Ghost]

If anything Katrina taught us that post collapse or even during, the government is going to be quite eager to suspend and outright trample on civil liberties. I mean "duh" right? We always knew they would, we just happened to get a real world example.

[wolf_from_wv]

There are two kinds of people in this world...  Stay away from both of them.

[Raptor]

Raptor, those Katrina stories had me making a bunch of contingencies for bugouts and govt/local/vigilante roadblock/checkpoints.

The one lesson Katrina drove into my mind was the value of local knowledge.

The check points completely overlooked key areas of ingress & egress. These points are not evident if you look on a map.

Yet they exist and I typically use these routes to bypass traffic and/or street flooding.

Due to the frequent street flooding many residents also know how to navigate the city in high water. Some streets may flood with very little water making them look impassable but in reality the water is never deep. On the other hand there are streets were several feet of water can accumulate in low spots during a rain storm and they look safe.

Attached are two examples one is I-10 RR crossing and the other is street not too far away. These are both potentially dangerous both look quite normal and dry until you come to the RR bridge (one has a large measuring board showing the water depth up to 5 feet) but not the interstate? So you just need to know that if there is water there, do not proceed & BTW there is no way to get off once you see water there. It is a route to avoid if there is a flooding event. The last picture is in the aftermath of Katrina you can see the cars on high ground on one side and the dry land on the other side. The water there is at least 9 feet deep.   

I was able to get into and out of the city while barley getting my tires wet during the time the city was "sealed off" due to this local knowledge.

Knowledge of alternate routes is vital.   

[Ghost]

Great stuff Raptor.

I think as preppers we get that highways are going to be log jammed, but the general public (seemingly) thinks they will be the only ones on the road or nearly so.

If anything it underscores the importance of four wheel drive. Post societal collapse? roads are likely to be littered with vehicles. Hence off roading.

[Moab]

I think it very much depends on your AO too. 

My number one is criminal gangs. Hell, they are my number one without a disaster.

Here in LA the city is divided by freeways. On one side are the "haves" and on the other - are the "have nots". The gangs and criminals live with the have nots. I live about 1 to 2 miles into the haves.

During Halloween the streets here in my town are filled with tricker treaters. But 98% of them are from the other side of the freeway. I don't mention this to marginalize people. Its a huge generalization. But I use it as an example of how easily the have nots will travel to the other side of the freeway. Because resources are bountiful. And everyone in the city knows this. 

People don't take their kids to the other side of the freeway to tricker treat. Not even those that live on the other side. They come here. 

During Halloween they come here because they can't find 50 cents worth of candy for their kids. Imagine when they can't find food or water for their kids? You get my point.

But the same applies to my nieghbors. Who I barely know. And worse starting only one block over. Because I don't know them at all. They will also eventually kill to save their children. And I don't fault them for that. Keeping your children alive is the most violence inducing situation on this planet. Maybe next to just keeping ourselves alive.

Over the last 6 months (not during a disaster) criminal gangs have started staulking people in better neighborhoods here. To follow them and steal what they have. The police have started countywide task forces to try to deal with this.

They drive around looking for victims. And when they can't just take their stuff. They run them over with their cars, shoot them or chase them down and physically take their belongs at gunpoint. In broad daylight. These are just the ones that have been videotaped. Yesterday they videotaped one chasing someone off the street, into a store, at gun point.

The police report that its not just one gang either. But many different gangs are doing this. That have set this up as a regular money making venture.

So Imagine if a major disaster took place here? Maybe one that crippled the city? That kept police officers at home protecting their own children? Because nine tenths of police here don't live in the areas they work. What then?

Also I hold an FFL01 - a federal license to deal firearms. California does not allow me to register a different address than my own. There is a national registry of firearms dealers that can be freely accessed ALL over the internet. Just about every online gun store gives access to this list. So you can easily find a gun dealer to have your guns shipped to.

Guess where, on this side of the freeway, the criminal gangs are going to attack first - in a major disaster? Where the guns are. Which they will think is at my house. I don't run a gun store out of my house. I don't have a massive inventory of guns and ammo. I don't live in a cement building with bars and security doors. 

This is why I've wanted to move so badly for so long.

I don't share my preps with my neighbors. And my first plan is to get out as soon as possible. Because otherwise, I guarantee you, I will die.

I just hope I can get out fast enough to avoid the thousands of checkpoints and jurisdiction that will be set up by everyone from local, state and federal government. Local neighborhoods. And gangs. 

[Ghost]

Adding some further thoughts to this.

In SHTF the likelihood of encounter those at the top of the pyramid? Really, really remote.

Further add that if you're getting into CQC or even a "standard" firefight?

You're doing it wrong.

SF, military of Hell even paramilitary training is good but post collapse when there are no functioning trauma surgeons? No medivacs or embedded corpsman or medics?

That's not to say that tactics aren't useful, they are. Simply put in a world with no antibiotics and limited medical treatment? You're talking early 1900s level of care. Care in the sense that people have a lot more medical knowledge now than then, but are very likely to not have the tools to carry it out.

Long range sniping and retreat is the order of the day.

"Winning" here is simply getting away without a scratch.

Add to this unless you're 21, in peak physical shape, trained and well armed and backed up? Even then luck is a factor, everyone reacts to a .308 the same way.

Long about way of saying, yes threats exist but the likelihood of encountering truly deadly individuals or groups (as in SF? Low. FR more likely to encounter higher numbers of individuals grouped together who are not individually deadly by their numbers make them a threat.

Now as time goes on post collapse anyone you encounter is going to be a moderate threat if for no other reason than they did enough to survive.

[Moab]

"Long range sniping and retreat is the order of the day."

True.

This reminds me of that excellent post on zs. That I thought I reposted here. About how to defend your bol tactically. Anyone else remember this? It was a long post. 

[echo83]

"Long range sniping and retreat is the order of the day."

True.

This reminds me of that excellent post on zs. That I thought I reposted here. About how to defend your bol tactically. Anyone else remember this? It was a long post.

I definitely remember it over on ZS, but I don't remember seeing it here. My big takeaway was "don't go looking for a fight, but if you find one, make it quick and overwhelming before breaking contact." 

If I remember correctly, didn't it touch on the importance of patrolling your BOL with a small team, comms between teams, overwatch, likely engagement ranges, etc?

[Moab]

"Long range sniping and retreat is the order of the day."

True.

This reminds me of that excellent post on zs. That I thought I reposted here. About how to defend your bol tactically. Anyone else remember this? It was a long post.

I definitely remember it over on ZS, but I don't remember seeing it here. My big takeaway was "don't go looking for a fight, but if you find one, make it quick and overwhelming before breaking contact."

If I remember correctly, didn't it touch on the importance of patrolling your BOL with a small team, comms between teams, overwatch, likely engagement ranges, etc?

Yes. Man I wish I could remember. It wasn't tacair. (Where did he go?) But someone like that. Let me search for it. 

Zombie Squad is gone off of internet archive. That bums me out. Its there but no posts or even index. 

[flybynight]

"Long range sniping and retreat is the order of the day."

True.

This reminds me of that excellent post on zs. That I thought I reposted here. About how to defend your bol tactically. Anyone else remember this? It was a long post.

I definitely remember it over on ZS, but I don't remember seeing it here. My big takeaway was "don't go looking for a fight, but if you find one, make it quick and overwhelming before breaking contact."

If I remember correctly, didn't it touch on the importance of patrolling your BOL with a small team, comms between teams, overwatch, likely engagement ranges, etc?

Yes. Man I wish I could remember. It wasn't tacair. (Where did he go?) But someone like that. Let me search for it.

Zombie Squad is gone off of internet archive. That bums me out. Its there but no posts or even index.

It was Stercutus

[Moab]

"Long range sniping and retreat is the order of the day."

True.

This reminds me of that excellent post on zs. That I thought I reposted here. About how to defend your bol tactically. Anyone else remember this? It was a long post.

I definitely remember it over on ZS, but I don't remember seeing it here. My big takeaway was "don't go looking for a fight, but if you find one, make it quick and overwhelming before breaking contact."

If I remember correctly, didn't it touch on the importance of patrolling your BOL with a small team, comms between teams, overwatch, likely engagement ranges, etc?

Yes. Man I wish I could remember. It wasn't tacair. (Where did he go?) But someone like that. Let me search for it.

Zombie Squad is gone off of internet archive. That bums me out. Its there but no posts or even index.

It was Stercutus

Was it? Damn. He was a retired cop iirc. That was a good post. I'm really sad we lost it. 

[flybynight]

"Long range sniping and retreat is the order of the day."

True.

This reminds me of that excellent post on zs. That I thought I reposted here. About how to defend your bol tactically. Anyone else remember this? It was a long post.

I definitely remember it over on ZS, but I don't remember seeing it here. My big takeaway was "don't go looking for a fight, but if you find one, make it quick and overwhelming before breaking contact."

If I remember correctly, didn't it touch on the importance of patrolling your BOL with a small team, comms between teams, overwatch, likely engagement ranges, etc?

Yes. Man I wish I could remember. It wasn't tacair. (Where did he go?) But someone like that. Let me search for it.

Zombie Squad is gone off of internet archive. That bums me out. Its there but no posts or even index.

It was StercutusYea

I remember it for how detailed the post was. And the title of the thread was defense of BOL for dummies, and I posted a picture of a bunch of mannequins in camo

[echo83]

Alright, now I remember the mannequins in camo...this is going to sound weird, but are we taking the first steps to rebuilding Stercutus' post?

From what I remember, it had a centrally-located cabin on high ground in a clear area surrounded by woods, a pretty secure perimeter with two (?) gated entry points, one of which was accessed via a logging road. The cabin was by no means a fortress, but certainly worth fighting over, and therefore worth defending.

There was line of sight to the gate, but enough distance to cover that there was need (or certainly good use) for bolt action/battle rifles over intermediate calibers in carbine-length barrels. Further, there was need for radios and regular patrols (on foot or by vehicle) and OPs.

More will come to me, but if this isn't the place to post this topic, let me know.

ETA: Moab is all over it in another thread, and yeah...there's no way I would have remembered it in its entirety.